***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

So America supposedly added like 215k jobs, but unemployment went up from 4.9% to 5.0%. Markets went up so guess no one thinks Fed will do jack shit -- most likely the correct assumption.

Watch for the video?
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/01/one-wrinkle-lurking-in-marchs-strong-jobs-report.html

But waaaaaaaaaaa, oil went down to $36. A high-up Saudi said they wouldn't freeze production -- at record high levels -- unless Iran and others joined. Awwwwwwwww, you mean all that talk about a production freeze was bullshit? Woe is me, I feel so betrayed. Let's ignore the whole record production levels they were planning on freezing at.

Watch for more video?
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/31/oil-...er-dollar-and-further-oversupply-worries.html

 

[Imp]

And this is some scary shit. I got reminded that the Fed's QE ended around late October 2014.

S&P 500 highs
November 2014 = ~2075
May 2015 = ~2130
March 2016 = ~2070

It's almost like something was driving the market and when that thing got taken away, the market kind of stopped moving.

 

[Charmonium]

And this is some scary shit. I got reminded that the Fed's QE ended around late October 2014.

S&P 500 highs
November 2014 = ~2075
May 2015 = ~2130
March 2016 = ~2070

It's almost like something was driving the market and when that thing got taken away, the market kind of stopped moving.

It didn't exactly end in 2014. They stopped increasing their balance sheet but they're still in the market buying stuff to replace the assets that are maturing. If you look at a chart of their assets, you'll see that from the end of 2014 on, the total value of all assets has remained constant.

When they start selling assets is when things will get iffy. They have something like $3T in assets to dispose of. So they haven't even begun to tighten yet, changes in the interest rate notwithstanding.

As far as the value of equities, one big part of that equation is the value of the dollar, which had it's worst quarter since 2010. And don't forget the buyback binge which reduces supply and increases earnings per share.

 

[Imp]

You are correct. They stopped increasing their QE balance.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/investo...-qe-isnt-really-the-end-of-qe/2/#556af0e27e52

 

[Imp]

Oil company just died: Sanjel Corp

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...broken-up-and-sold-to-rivals/article29517422/

More probably following in the next few months. Oil back down to $35. Never saw that coming. It seems comfortable in the $35 to $40 range. Every time it gets below $30, it rockets up and the media hypes it big.

Edit: So, um, the debt problem isn't just restricted to essentially every Western country, China, et al. Add India to the mix. India + China = ~2.6 billion people. Good times.

A third of the country's 500 largest listed non-financial companies failed to earn enough to make interest payments in the financial year that ended March 2015

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/04/a-th...is-currently-stressed-india-ratings-says.html

 

[FelixDeCat]

Looking forward to January 2017:

MORL pays 25%+, Fed is backing down to 2 rate hikes from 4, current price $13. If price is stable or goes up could be good.

or

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) last quote $3.72 - shorting the January 2017 $4 CHK Put option yields 42% in 10 months!

Decision? I committed to buying 200 shares of CHK @ $4 in January. I may short more puts but want to tiptoe into it. :sneaky:

 

[Miramonti]

Looking forward to January 2017:

MORL pays 25%+, Fed is backing down to 2 rate hikes from 4, current price $13. If price is stable or goes up could be good.

or

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) last quote $3.72 - shorting the January 2017 $4 CHK Put option yields 42% in 10 months!

Decision? I committed to buying 200 shares of CHK @ $4 in January. I may short more puts but want to tiptoe into it. :sneaky:

You committed in January, or bought in January? Wouldn't shorting puts increase your long bet?

 

[FelixDeCat]

You committed in January, or bought in January? Wouldn't shorting puts increase your long bet?

When you short a put you agree to buy at that strike, which in this case is $4 in January 2017. The current price is $3.87. The premium collected is $1.70 per contract (profit). The risk is they could be less than $2.30 at that time, which is your actual purchase price.

 

[rcpratt]

Bought a small amount of SUNE yesterday at $0.22. Nice pop today....I'm out.

Yay gambling.

 

[Imp]

Ahahahaha Ahahahahha... So much for that super strong Canadian economy. Trade deficit jumped to $1.9 billion in February. It's been under $1 billion for the last month or so but negative, IIRC, for most of last year.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/trade-deficit-february-1.3521131

But hey, Toronto and Vancouver house prices are on fire! They're supported and paid for by... love.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/housing-market-toronto-vancouver-1.3521541

 

[FelixDeCat]

Go Cowboys!

 

[Imp]

Found this couple year old video about how the economy works interesting.

https://youtu.be/PHe0bXAIuk0

What I took away was that housing goes up forever, as does the stock market like what it's doing now...

 

[Imp]

What am I missing about this article?

Headline: "More Than 40% of Student Borrowers Aren’t Making Payments"

http://www.wsj.com/articles/more-than-40-of-student-borrowers-arent-making-payments-1459971348

More than 40% of Americans who borrowed from the government’s main student-loan program aren’t making payments or are behind on more than $200 billion owed

How the hell is this not a problem? You'd think something like this would be making headline news everywhere. But no one cares?

 

[rcpratt]

I can't believe WSJ published with that headline. "Not making payments" isn't the same thing as "not making payments or are behind on payments."

 

[Charmonium]

There was a pretty monumental meeting and press conference yesterday (earlier today). There was a panel discussion including all living Fed Chairs. You had Yellen, Bernanke, Volker and Greenspan.

A lot of the discussion focused on Janet (such a cutie pie). And one of the main points to me was her statement that they will need to do a few more rate rise on the short end to see how the economy handles it. If that goes well, they will start to sell assets on their balance sheet effectively tightening the money supply for all parts of the yield curve..

The fed has already been doing recurring reverse repos which I think are in the $500B range (but I'd have to check). So IOW, they are selling securities into the market for a relatively short period of time like days, weeks and maybe months. This temporarily drains liquidity until the fed buys them back under the terms of the repo.

So it seems that they are ready to kick the economy in the nuts if it looks like things are heating up too quickly.

There were some pretty funny lines and situations - if you're a fed geek. Like when Zakaria asked Volker about the time he was burned in effigy.

 

[Imp]

From the "analyst" and "news site" summaries, all I remember is that Yellen plans on keeping the rate unchanged.

I liked the market today though: first time I've seen the Dow drop 200 points intraday trading in a while.

 

[holden j caufield]

Got crushed today. Luckily the last 6 weeks have been pretty good but today was meh

 

[FelixDeCat]

Got crushed today. Luckily the last 6 weeks have been pretty good but today was meh

It was a pure garbage sell off. Nothing but bots trading on algorithms. No f'g reason for it otherwise. Most likely back up tomorrow.

QQQs 112 next week.

 

[holden j caufield]

It was a pure garbage sell off. Nothing but bots trading on algorithms. No f'g reason for it otherwise. Most likely back up tomorrow.

QQQs 112 next week.

I thought so too, I kept buying throughout the day. So many of mine were down 4-7%. But I have to say from Mid February until now the upside has been too good (too bad I didn't hold everything for the last 6 weeks).

Half the stocks I bought in early mid Feb are up 25-50% that's pretty insane. Too bad i didn't keep everything for the entire 6-7 weeks.

 

[Imp]

Yellen doesn't think the U.S. is a bubble economy.

There's a video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/07/yellen-us-is-not-a-bubble-economy-labor-market-healing.html

I actually agree... for the United States. Same can't be said for the rest of the world though. Housing bubbles probably in China, Canada, Australia, United Kingdom, other EU countries...

 

[PlanetJosh]

Like a poster said a few posts up, the last six weeks have been good overall. My family has long stuff like mutual funds. What a great March that was after those doldrums in Jan-Feb.

 

[sm625]

It was a pure garbage sell off. Nothing but bots trading on algorithms. No f'g reason for it otherwise. Most likely back up tomorrow.

QQQs 112 next week.

This looks like a classic breakdown pattern forming. I'm surprised you're not shorting and calling for QQQs 106 next week.

 

[Miramonti]

Small buyer of DWTI at 133.06 and seller at 138.60 (for a $137 profit, woot) and a small buyer of BOOT at $6.72. That was my first triple disaster stock trade and even with such a small purchase I did not find it fun lol.

 

[JEDI]

Small buyer of DWTI at 133.06 and seller at 138.60 (for a $137 profit, woot) and a small buyer of BOOT at $6.72. That was my first triple disaster stock trade and even with such a small purchase I did not find it fun lol.

dwti is taking a beating like a redheaded step child.
I'm buying when it goes down to $120. (now at 135)

I wonder why oil popped 6%+ today?

 

[Imp]

dwti is taking a beating like a redheaded step child.
I'm buying when it goes down to $120. (now at 135)

I wonder why oil popped 6%+ today?

Oil oversupply is over, didn't you hear? According to the EIA, there wasone week of a ~5 million draw in the United States. Suddenly, the GLOBAL oversupply is over.

U.S. economy may have barely grown in Q1, but who cares?

Auto-play video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/08/first-quarter-economy-looks-bleaker-by-the-day.html