***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Another good news week for Canada...

There goes 100 jobs at Trican, oil & gas co:
http://medicinehatnews.com/news/loc...t-oilfield-company-to-announce-local-layoffs/

And 600 in Canada at SNC Lavalin, engineering/construction:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/snc-lavalin-jobs-cuts-1.3497022

Cenovus planning more cuts, oil and gas:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ts-coming-climate-strategy-balanced-1.3495115

Hey, but house prices went up 12% year over year in February:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/house-prices-february-1.3491831

Things are really looking up.

 

[JEDI]

Another good news week for Canada...

There goes 100 jobs at Trican, oil & gas co:
http://medicinehatnews.com/news/loc...t-oilfield-company-to-announce-local-layoffs/

And 600 in Canada at SNC Lavalin, engineering/construction:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/snc-lavalin-jobs-cuts-1.3497022

Cenovus planning more cuts, oil and gas:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...ts-coming-climate-strategy-balanced-1.3495115

Hey, but house prices went up 12% year over year in February:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/house-prices-february-1.3491831

Things are really looking up.

the bubble still hasn't popped?
maybe Canada can borrow a pin from Verizon.
their 'Can you hear me now?' ad campaign is decades dead.
they're no longer dropping a pin so use it to pop the bubble

 

[OverVolt]

the bubble still hasn't popped?
maybe Canada can borrow a pin from Verizon.
their 'Can you hear me now?' ad campaign is decades dead.
they're no longer dropping a pin so use it to pop the bubble

The bigger it gets the worse it pops. I actually don't understand how such a huge country with so much land has a real estate bubble. It must be concentrated in the big cities and thus the rest of the country carries on just fine.

They also have strange land leasing deals out there. Just a different place. Housing bubbles are a generational problem. The generation that gets house appreciation, not a problem, but the next generation is screwed.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Australia sounded worse (as far as real estate is concerned) based off the articles this thread has been linking recently.

Not surprising overall, my hardest decision right now though is debating between maxing out my 401k now or later.

 

[Imp]

The bigger it gets the worse it pops. I actually don't understand how such a huge country with so much land has a real estate bubble. It must be concentrated in the big cities and thus the rest of the country carries on just fine.

They also have strange land leasing deals out there. Just a different place. Housing bubbles are a generational problem. The generation that gets house appreciation, not a problem, but the next generation is screwed.

It's mainly Toronto and Vancouver... Didn't you hear? They're not making anymore land. And something about rich Chinese buying everything up with no plans to ever live there.

...For some reason, Chinese don't want to fly an extra half hour to Seattle, WA where homes are cheaper even after USD conversion -- or 1 extra hour to Calgary. But they can make it an extra couple hours to Toronto okay... They're supposedly all rich enough to afford $1+ million homes but can't afford health insurance too. Or they love the moderate weather in Vancouver but hate Seattle...

Oh, those pesky Chinese citizens also struck in Australia.

The 24-year-old, who was an ordinary income earner, was loaned $6.5 million by a bank and encouraged to invest in a “highly volatile” market in the little mining town of Moranbah in Queensland — she bought 10 properties.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...k/news-story/57af9a6edf85528f5fa38beddd7bb2e3

 

[thesmokingman]

Wow, that's a high average per home! Hello, 650K per home in a mining town?

 

[Imp]

People are having trouble with their car loans in America. But who gives a shit, the stock market went back up and oil prices are $40. Party on forever.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rowers-are-falling-behind-on-their-auto-loans

 

[Charmonium]

Let's hope that the derivatives at least aren't rated AAA.

Just fyi, I think the length of car loans is at an all time high. Apparently some are as long as 72 months.

 

[ponyo]

I like Silver. I have six Silver Eagles. Back in 2011 we saw $50 silver. I sold all my old silver coins before it got that high back in 2010. We are now at wholesale silver @ $16, from a low of $13.80.

The price per retail is $23-$25.

I actually like silver more than gold but storage and weight are big issues with silver since it's so cheap. Gold is around 80 times more expensive than silver right now so gold is much more portable. Here's a picture of two 1 ounce gold Austria Philharmonic coins and it easily fits on a business card. Behind it are five kilo silver Perth Lunars and Mexican Libertad coins. Two ounce of gold is similar price to five kilos of silver which is about 160 oz or almost 11 pounds.

 

[FelixDeCat]

People are having trouble with their car loans in America. But who gives a shit, the stock market went back up and oil prices are $40. Party on forever.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rowers-are-falling-behind-on-their-auto-loans

My car 8 year old car is small, old, and easy to park. But its also paid in full with low miles, nice interior and paint.

Lots of times I tempted to trade it in for something slightly newer and bigger. But I think "oh yeah, car payments for seven years".

Forget that.

 

[Imp]

My car 8 year old car is small, old, and easy to park. But its also paid in full with low miles, nice interior and paint.

Lots of times I tempted to trade it in for something slightly newer and bigger. But I think "oh yeah, car payments for seven years".

Forget that.

You call yourself an American? You should be trading that econo car for an F150. Trade it in for another one before you pay it off too.

 

[Michael]

I thought about picking up some Canadian Solar after last week's drop but got busy and forgot. Now it's recovered most of the drop. I don't know much about the company but ATOT member Michael is the CFO there so that's a plus. I have to think Justin Trudeau will be good for solar and other green industries in Canada. If only if I wasn't so bearish about the overall market.

Just don't ask me any questions as I cannot answer them.



Michael

 

[FelixDeCat]

Long VRX. Currently $29, hoping for $30 by Thursday. VRX went from $7 in 2008 to $250 in 2015.

They might be on the verge of a recovery.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Long VRX. Currently $29, hoping for $30 by Thursday. VRX went from $7 in 2008 to $250 in 2015.

They might be on the verge of a recovery.

Valiant on FIRE! Hit $32!! Options are EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE. The Jan 2017 $30 call is $10!!

 

[Imp]

I should go all in on Valeant... I'd either never work again or lose it all. Boo ya!

 

[holden j caufield]

I should go all in on Valeant... I'd either never work again or lose it all. Boo ya!

wouldn't even put someone else's money in it. I could see it going up for a little bit more but I wouldn't chance it.

Same with SUNE I've been in and out of it and it's been good to me but even at 1.4 or 1.3 after hours it's getting to close to someone getting caught holding the bag.

Course now that I've said it look for both to makes a 50% gain in the next week. SUNE maybe sooner.

 

[Imp]

Alberta oil company just died and made the region's news. Bank called its loan.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/terra-energy-shuts-down-after-loan-called-in-1.3502277

 

[FelixDeCat]

I should go all in on Valeant... I'd either never work again or lose it all. Boo ya!

MY REASONING for going long is that it was falling fast and hard because at the last earnings call they said their financial statements "could no longer be relied upon". Usually that statement means a scandal that triggers immediate default on all outstanding debt .... and they have $30 BILLION DOLLARS of it. The stock price fell 50% that day.

The CEO has since resigned, they have clarified the above statement to be insignificant amounts related to the recognition of revenue of a subsidiary for the year 2014 and early 2015. They plan to meet the deadline for filing the quarterly report and get a waiver for the above statement to stay in compliance with debt covenants.

The whole reason the stock fell so sharply is that they thought the company would be forced into immediate bankruptcy over this 'scandal'. Now it appears they will not. HOWEVER they admitted they might not get the required waivers, and the related lawsuits costs and reputational losses cannot be currently quantified.

But the 'immediate' danger appears to be gone and that's why it has gone from $25 to $32 in a couple of days. This stock could easily double once a new CEO is chosen, they sell some assets to raise cash and confidence is restored.

 

[us3rnotfound]

Valiant on FIRE! Hit $32!! Options are EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE. The Jan 2017 $30 call is $10!!

Is it possibly a dead cat bounce?

 

[FelixDeCat]

wouldn't even put someone else's money in it. I could see it going up for a little bit more but I wouldn't chance it.

Same with SUNE I've been in and out of it and it's been good to me but even at 1.4 or 1.3 after hours it's getting to close to someone getting caught holding the bag.

Course now that I've said it look for both to makes a 50% gain in the next week. SUNE maybe sooner.

Sune is going chapter 11 soon. D:

 

[Imp]

Just remembered... I think Valeant earnings come out tomorrow (Wed) so that's going to be interesting to watch.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Who likes a little risk taking?
Exelon, a large utility, wants to buy Pepco for $27.25/share. Pepco is currently trading only at 21.80 because there is some big concern that DC officials will block the deal, (this is the risk) despite the fact that MD, PA, NY officials have OK'ed it.

If you buy POM and the deal is made you can make ~$5.40/share, a nice 25% gain in a short time. If the deal is rejected I think the stock falls to $17, but then returns to around $19, a loss of 22 - 12%, but you still get a utility paying > 5%.

I put the deal odds of success at 55 - 60%. There is some support for it.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...o-Holdings-Exelon-Merger-Grows-D.C.-Community

Doing the value analysis assuming odds of only 50/50 and you still get a better deal going for it (.50 * 5.40(gain) > 0.50 * 4.8(loss)) I think the risk is worth it so I put a little money into it. If only odds at craps were this good.

Nice call bro! Merger approved PEPCO up 27% today! ()

 

[Imp]

EIA numbers... +9.4 M on crude , -4.6 M on gasoline. However, it's change of seasons time. Regardless, market doesn't seem to like it. You mean we haven't solved the oversupply problem yet?

Watch for the auto-video...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/22/oil-futures-fall-after-latest-stockpile-build.html

Has the rally peaked? Hope so. If the market follows the previous bears, it should hang around its current level for a month or two then hard drop. A Fed rate hike could be the catalyst.

 

[Udgnim]

EIA numbers... +9.4 M on crude , -4.6 M on gasoline. However, it's change of seasons time. Regardless, market doesn't seem to like it. You mean we haven't solved the oversupply problem yet?

Watch for the auto-video...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/22/oil-futures-fall-after-latest-stockpile-build.html

Has the rally peaked? Hope so. If the market follows the previous bears, it should hang around its current level for a month or two then hard drop. A Fed rate hike could be the catalyst.

US Production down 30K

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

 

[Imp]

US Production down 30K

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

This chart should put that drop into perspective:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

Production for week of 5/30/2014: 8,383 thousand barrels per day.
Production for week of 11/14/2014: 9,038 thousand barrels per day.


Estimated "Total World Production" for 2016: 96.44 million
Estimated "Total World Consumption" for 2016: 94.85 million

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm