***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Premarket ... Jack in the Box down 20%, NUGT 3x GOLD ETF off 6%

 

[OverVolt]

Did it crash n burn yet

 

[FelixDeCat]

Oops ... UPL still going zero.... other oil companies going back down again. lol

So much for all that idiotic buying.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Oh yeah, and that bear market rally is also done.

 

[Imp]

Hahahaha... so much for that API oil inventory report showing a big inventory draw.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0VR00K

So, crude stores rose 2.1 million barrels, gasoline and distillates up too. Total of 504 million barrels of crude in U.S. storage.

But but but but but but but, Saudis and Russia agreed to agree!

 

[Charmonium]

I heard some more about the yield curve situation today. It looks like the whole curve has moved up over the past week. I haven't had a chance to track down any charts but if I heard correctly, the whole curve shifted up. I assume that means that the curve is still fairly flat but at least the market is bidding up rates across the board. That's probably a good sign.

 

[FelixDeCat]

GRPN up 15% on take over rumor. Will it continue over $5 next week?

 

[flunky nassau]

Anyone get a piece of this gold rally?!? I thought we hit bottom in the fall so I loaded up on some junior miners with little/no debt who were profitable at ~$1000 gold (MUX, GSV, NG, SA), but I was a bit early so I endured some pain, but it's paying off now big!

Is it time to get into commodities in general? Silver Wheaton?

 

[Imp]

Anyone get a piece of this gold rally?!? I thought we hit bottom in the fall so I loaded up on some junior miners with little/no debt who were profitable at ~$1000 gold (MUX, GSV, NG, SA), but I was a bit early so I endured some pain, but it's paying off now big!

Is it time to get into commodities in general? Silver Wheaton?

Tempted to but the potential downside in USD is way too big for my liking. Gold is still priced for "end of the world soon" instead of "apocalypse now" back at $1900/ounce.

Edit: Average inflation-adjusted price of gold is only about $500 over 200 years.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2013/04/22/gold-bugs-swatted-again/#32b1422c5e61

Take out 2008 and the 1970s, it's probably closer to $400.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Anyone get a piece of this gold rally?!? I thought we hit bottom in the fall so I loaded up on some junior miners with little/no debt who were profitable at ~$1000 gold (MUX, GSV, NG, SA), but I was a bit early so I endured some pain, but it's paying off now big!

Is it time to get into commodities in general? Silver Wheaton?

I was this f'ng close to buying the $50 GOLD EAGLE just for the fun of it before it started rallying. The cash / wire price was $1150 and I almost pulled the trigger. But I hesitated.

Todays cash price is $1303. Way too expensive now. :'(

http://www.apmex.com/product/84882/2015-1-oz-gold-american-eagle-bu

 

[Imp]

^^^How the fuq is the legal tender $50 when that's at least $500 of gold on average during "regular" times?

Edit: Reading up on the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. How is this not pretty much what is happening now?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis

Wikipedia entry -- bla bla, not a great source -- says the show started when Thailand was forced to float its currency that was pegged to USD. Are we just waiting for China to float its currency now, also pegged to USD? China sold a ton of U.S. Treasuries in the past while, allegedly.

 

[FelixDeCat]

lol

 

[Charmonium]

^^^How the fuq is the legal tender $50 when that's at least $500 of gold on average during "regular" times?

That's how the US Mint works. They want to make damn sure that metal content never exceeds the face value. Not sure why but it's standard operating procedure.

On top of that, their proof coins tend to sell for around a 40% premium to spot. The only reason to buy them is the built-in rarity since they only produce 20-50k for most proofs.

http://americanfederal.com/gold-mintages/

 

[ponyo]

I was this f'ng close to buying the $50 GOLD EAGLE just for the fun of it before it started rallying. The cash / wire price was $1150 and I almost pulled the trigger. But I hesitated.

Todays cash price is $1303. Way too expensive now. :'(

http://www.apmex.com/product/84882/2015-1-oz-gold-american-eagle-bu

Best place to buy gold is on eBay Apmex and not direct. Today's Apmex eBay sale is $1273 for 1 oz AGE credit card price or $44 over spot. But that's still too expensive. You can buy 1 oz gold coin for around $60 under spot on Apmex eBay several times a year during eBay Bucks promotion. eBay will subsidize gold purchases and give you up to $500 every quarter for total of $2,000 year per account. That's free money and can add up if you have multiple accounts.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/SPECIAL-PRICE-2016-1-oz-Gold-American-Eagle-Coin-Brilliant-Uncirculated/111868499470?hash=item1a0be1d60e&_trkparms=5374%3AFeatured%7C5373%3A0

 

[Imp]

That's how the US Mint works. They want to make damn sure that metal content never exceeds the face value. Not sure why but it's standard operating procedure.

On top of that, their proof coins tend to sell for around a 40% premium to spot. The only reason to buy them is the built-in rarity since they only produce 20-50k for most proofs.

http://americanfederal.com/gold-mintages/

Unless I'm misunderstanding, that 1 oz. gold eagle is over $1000 of gold right now, but it's only $50 on the face. So, metal content >>>> face value?

Edit: Oh, and Fannie Mae may need another bailout...

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/20/fannie-mae-at-risk-of-needing-a-bailout.html

Because the government does not let Fannie Mae retain profits, Tim Mayopoulos, its chief executive, told the Financial Times on Friday that its capital buffer, which has dwindled from $30 billion before the crisis to $1.2 billion today, was on track to disappear by January 2018.

 

[Charmonium]

Sorry, got that exactly backwards. That happens pretty often but I usually catch it. This time I still didn't see it even after your comment until I read it a couple of times.

Yes, I should have said that the metal content vastly exceeds the face value.

 

[ponyo]

Unless I'm misunderstanding, that 1 oz. gold eagle is over $1000 of gold right now, but it's only $50 on the face. So, metal content >>>> face value?

If you want coin with face value > metal content, Royal Canadian Mint is happy to sell you suckers their $20 for $20, $50 for $50, and $100 for $100 silver coins.
$100 for $100
Who doesn't want to pay $100 for 1 oz of silver just because it has $100 face value?

If you want more of these super duper coins, the Royal Mint of UK will be happy to sell you £50 for £50 coins too.
£50 for £50
It's slightly under 1 oz of silver but who cares right? I mean who cares no one will take these coins at face value, not even banks.

 

[OverVolt]

You know you can use a penny more than once right.

 

[holden j caufield]

How do you guys setup your screen or desktop for trading? I've got a dedicated virtual machine just for trading but it isn't that efficient and I have a separate VM for doing research, browsing etc. I've just started messing with Fidelity Active Trader Pro but I'm sure there are better tools.

How would you set up the macros on a g602 mouse that has 8 additional buttons.

 

[turtile]

Unless I'm misunderstanding, that 1 oz. gold eagle is over $1000 of gold right now, but it's only $50 on the face. So, metal content >>>> face value?

The mints around the world do this on purpose for all bullions coins. The purpose of bullion coins is to sit outside of circulation as an investment. If the face value exceeds the metal value, people will begin to use them as currency.

And what happens when the mint has to sell $50 of currency for $40 since that's the value of gold...

 

[OverVolt]

The mints around the world do this on purpose for all bullions coins. The purpose of bullion coins is to sit outside of circulation as an investment. If the face value exceeds the metal value, people will begin to use them as currency.

And what happens when the mint has to sell $50 of currency for $40 since that's the value of gold...

That moment when $667 million dollars for a loaf of bread is just too damn much because it was only $628 million last week is what happens.

I completely jest, its just... those would be some pretty busy coin presses. $10 generated for every coin minted, hot dayum.

 

[Imp]

The mints around the world do this on purpose for all bullions coins. The purpose of bullion coins is to sit outside of circulation as an investment. If the face value exceeds the metal value, people will begin to use them as currency.

And what happens when the mint has to sell $50 of currency for $40 since that's the value of gold...

It just seems pointless to have any face value at all. You can have bricks/ingots of gold with just mass labels, so the 1 oz. part seems adequate. Unless anything that is produced by the mint requires a face value...

 

[ponyo]

It just seems pointless to have any face value at all. You can have bricks/ingots of gold with just mass labels, so the 1 oz. part seems adequate. Unless anything that is produced by the mint requires a face value...

That's the main difference between govt coins and private mint rounds. Most coins have face value. Rounds do not. Since govt coins have face value, it's subject to govt counterfeiting laws. Private rounds do not have that protection. But some govt coins like the Krugerrand and the Libertad do not have face value.

This is an interesting chart of price of gold vs various currencies around the world. It has our two neighbors, Canada and Mexico, along with bunch of emerging and third world countries.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-20/what-happens-gold-when-citizens-lose-faith-fiat-currency

I view gold as insurance. And unlike other insurance, you only have to pay the premium once and it's yours forever with no counter party risks. I pay tens of thousands in home, health, auto, life, and business insurances every year and I don't see a cent of it after each year.

 

[Charmonium]

This is an interesting chart of price of gold vs various currencies around the world. It has our two neighbors, Canada and Mexico, along with bunch of emerging and third world countries. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-fiat-currency http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-fiat-currency

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-20/what-happens-gold-when-citizens-lose-faith-fiat-currency

Those are interesting charts but at a glance, it seems like most of those countries are commodity producers. Since commodities have taken a huge hit in recent years and gold is priced in US dollars for the most part, it seems like that could be more an issue with the strength of the dollar rather than a lack of faith in some of those currencies. AUD for example.

 

[ponyo]

[/URL]

Those are interesting charts but at a glance, it seems like most of those countries are commodity producers. Since commodities have taken a huge hit in recent years and gold is priced in US dollars for the most part, it seems like that could be more an issue with the strength of the dollar rather than a lack of faith in some of those currencies. AUD for example.

Yes, but it's zerohedge reprinting charts from a bull gold site. You have to expect the world is ending from them. Gold is priced in US dollars and the dollar has been strong. It's true many of those countries are commodity producers but some are damaged from war/conflicts.

It should be interesting to watch as/when US adopts NIRP and how see gold/silver prices react.