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JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
11pm EST:
US premarkets are up 2% across the board.

and oil is up 15% to $31/barrel!
short oil NOW!!!!


whao.. Blizzard is taking a hit at -6%.
wonder what happened?
Diablo/Warcraft/StarCraft out of favor w/gamers now?
 
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Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
RE: Oil

There's apparently some bullshit about a meeting between Saudis and Russians. They'll announce or finish tomorrow or something. Yes, they're going to agree to cut supply... and let the U.S. shale companies fill the gap. Very nice of them.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,973
2,676
126
JEDI said:
11pm EST:
US premarkets are up 2% across the board.

and oil is up 15% to $31/barrel!
short oil NOW!!!!


whao.. Blizzard is taking a hit at -6%.
wonder what happened?
Diablo/Warcraft/StarCraft out of favor w/gamers now?
Click to expand...

Never short into a squeeze. The bulls will try to rally another day and you will panic cover just before it goes back down.

Happens every time. :\
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
OMG, OMG, OMG, oil gonna explode! Report that oil producers will keep production at January levels!

Brent crude futures pared gains Tuesday following news that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Venezuela would lead an effort to freeze output at January levels.
Click to expand...

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/16/oil-prices-spike-on-reports-of-saudi-russia-output-cut-talks.html

Yay! Now the world will be perpetually oversupplied at like 2.0 million barrels/day unless every other country in the world decreases their production... And aren't the Saudis, and probably Russia, already tapped out with production?

Good thing Iran didn't just promise to boost production by a significant quantity relative to the amount of oversupply... oh wait.
 
exdeath

exdeath

Lifer
Jan 29, 2004
13,679
10
81
"bring supply and demand back in balance" bahaha they don't give a rat's ass about supply and demand balance when its $200 a barrel based on fake speculation supply and demand.
 
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JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
lets say you're speculating on a biotech stock you have no idea whats it's about.

it's up 8% today. :eek:
how to best maximize profit?

set a trailing stop?
 
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Charmonium

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,478
3,508
136
JEDI said:
lets say you're speculating on a biotech stock you have no idea whats it's about.

it's up 8% today. :eek:
how to best maximize profit?

set a trailing stop?
Click to expand...
For very volatile stocks, there's a good chance you'll hit your stop just due to normal price fluctuations. I'm going to guess that for most biotechs, you have a pretty high beta.
 
T

turtile

Senior member
Aug 19, 2014
633
315
136
Imp said:
OMG, OMG, OMG, oil gonna explode! Report that oil producers will keep production at January levels!



http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/16/oil-prices-spike-on-reports-of-saudi-russia-output-cut-talks.html

Yay! Now the world will be perpetually oversupplied at like 2.0 million barrels/day unless every other country in the world decreases their production... And aren't the Saudis, and probably Russia, already tapped out with production?

Good thing Iran didn't just promise to boost production by a significant quantity relative to the amount of oversupply... oh wait.
Click to expand...

I bet Iran has a pretty large stock pile of excess oil too...
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,973
2,676
126
About a month ago I had a dream that I owned a few thousand shares of a penny stock that suddenly went bananas. It was very exciting because as I was watching the streaming Level II Quotes the stock went from $.001 to $.50, then traded back and forth finishing over $1.00. The next day it went from $1.00 to $5.15!! I've had dreams like this before but I could not remember the name of the company, except this time, it was Groupon.

SO....one month ago I checked into Groupon and it was in the $2+ dollar range with bad recent earnings and a bleak outlook. I decided to pass.

Fast forward to last Friday and today, Tuesday:

groupon.JPG



So I finally decided to buy a few $4.50 call options today. My total investment is about $100. I dont know it if it go to $5 by expiration of 2/26/16, but I have a chance at least. :)
 
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JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
JEDI

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,738
126
Charmonium said:
For very volatile stocks, there's a good chance you'll hit your stop just due to normal price fluctuations. I'm going to guess that for most biotechs, you have a pretty high beta.
Click to expand...

Price/Book 6.9
Beta 2.83

that considered high?

and what is beta?
and what can I do to maximize profits if I know NOTHING about this stock?
 
Charmonium

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,478
3,508
136
JEDI said:
Price/Book 6.9
Beta 2.83

that considered high?

and what is beta?
and what can I do to maximize profits if I know NOTHING about this stock?
Click to expand...
I'm not sure how much attention you should pay to price to book. It could mean the stock is underappreciated by investors or it could mean it's a value trap. Besides, book value is somewhat malleable even under GAAP rules.

Beta is rough measure of volatility. See the link for a complete explanation but essentially it tells you how much the stock will move when the market moves, either up or down. A beta of one means it moves more or less with the market. A beta of 3 means that on average, it should move 3 percent for every 1% the market moves.

If you don't know anything about the company, you're gambling not investing. That's ok if you take a truly random sample of say a dozen stocks and invest the same amount in each of them but nobody actually does that. They instead invest in funds of various types.
 
FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
30,973
2,676
126
Its safe to buy oil companies again. Nothing to worry about. The bottom is in. Its all up from here. Nothing but profits from now on. We've seen the lows. No one will lose money now. It's all good. It's what you've been waiting for. Bet the farm - oil is back!

:rolleyes:
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
FelixDeCat said:
Its safe to buy oil companies again. Nothing to worry about. The bottom is in. Its all up from here. Nothing but profits from now on. We've seen the lows. No one will lose money now. It's all good. It's what you've been waiting for. Bet the farm - oil is back!

:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Yep, looks that way. Didn't you hear? Iran said they would back the production freeze by Saudi and Russia friends... They didn't say they'd also freeze, just that they would support it or something. Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa...

Also today, Suncor (SU) went up about 6%. And Potash (POT) went up by 7%. Looks like it's not just oil, commodities are on fire!

P.S. Word is, this is short covering.
 
T

turtile

Senior member
Aug 19, 2014
633
315
136
Imp said:
Yep, looks that way. Didn't you hear? Iran said they would back the production freeze by Saudi and Russia friends... They didn't say they'd also freeze, just that they would support it or something. Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa...

Also today, Suncor (SU) went up about 6%. And Potash (POT) went up by 7%. Looks like it's not just oil, commodities are on fire!

P.S. Word is, this is short covering.
Click to expand...

I have shares of POT and I was surprised to see it up after reading that India isn't importing any potash due to the drought...
 
Charmonium

Charmonium

Lifer
May 15, 2015
10,478
3,508
136
Short interest/float (IIRC) is at relative high so short covering is probably a major consideration. Tried to find a chart but no luck.

I thought the news about Iran was pretty funny. From what I recall, the Saudis and Iranians hate each other with the fury of a thousand suns - or something similarly colorful. So the idea of their cooperating sort of cracked me up.
 
Imp

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,828
184
106
Charmonium said:
Short interest/float (IIRC) is at relative high so short covering is probably a major consideration. Tried to find a chart but no luck.

I thought the news about Iran was pretty funny. From what I recall, the Saudis and Iranians hate each other with the fury of a thousand suns - or something similarly colorful. So the idea of their cooperating sort of cracked me up.
Click to expand...

But they're not cooperating from what I understand... It's just "we (Iran) support what you're doing, but we won't do anything ourselves". The alternative is essentially "we condemn what you're doing and we'll keep doing our own thing."

But let's rally anyway... Honestly, what rally? Crude is still under $35. Shale/oil sands don't break even on average until probably $50, then you won't get capital investment until $70... so......................???

Edit: BBC headline...

Iran 'welcomes' but does not commit to oil output freeze

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35593628
 
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