***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[turtile]

I was thinking about going all-in or substantially into gold last night with an ETF like GLD or IAU because of doom & gloom... then I checked the historic gold prices. Holy. Shit. You could buy a ton for pocket change up until like the early 2000s. And it's been correcting back down to that low value steadily since 2011-ish.



I graduated in 2008 so that's been my belief and my observations for the last 8 years.

I wouldn't touch any material ETFs unless you are in for a short term trade. If you hold gold, it doesn't really make anything compared to the stock market. With an ETF, it's even worse. Not only is it impossible to get dividends, you are paying a fee for holding the ETF.

If you invest in gold, just buy it.

 

[Imp]

Gold price hit all time high of $1,791 CAD on 9/22/2011. It's $1,729 CAD today. Gold has good chance of breaking all time high in CAD very soon. What correction?

I was looking at USD because it's the standard, and the CAD is all over the road.

Gold today: US$ 1247.9
Gold 2006: US$ 600
Gold 2012: US$ 1800

CA$ 1.00 today: ~$US 0.718
CA$ 1.00 2006: ~$US 0.866
CA$ 1.00 2012: ~$US 1.00

 

[Imp]

Oh, hey everyone, there's "talk" about OPEC members working out a "deal" again! Crude is up like 4% since the lows of today!

We haven't seen this before like twice in the past week or two...

Edit: One more for the doom and gloom indicators... Apparently, distillate (heating oil and diesel?) demand in the U.S. of A. is down a lot.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/barclays-note-on-distillates-showing-us-recession-is-near-2016-2

 

[KB]

Oh, hey everyone, there's "talk" about OPEC members working out a "deal" again! Crude is up like 4% since the lows of today!

We haven't seen this before like twice in the past week or two...

Edit: One more for the doom and gloom indicators... Apparently, distillate (heating oil and diesel?) demand in the U.S. of A. is down a lot.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/barclays-note-on-distillates-showing-us-recession-is-near-2016-2

"Barclays does cite some mitigating factors, such as unusually warm winter weather and the fact this is based on preliminary data that may get revised upward later on."

The majority of heating oil is used in the Northeast/mid-atlantic states.
http://www.eia.gov/Energyexplained/index.cfm?page=heating_oil_use

Last January 2015 we had the polar vortex, one of the coldest winters I can remember. I had pipes freeze and was able to ice skate on the local river. This year we had one of the warmest starts to winter in some time. I was wearing shorts on Christmas and January didn't get really cold until the end. So yes, temperature is a big factor.

 

[Udgnim]

Oh, hey everyone, there's "talk" about OPEC members working out a "deal" again! Crude is up like 4% since the lows of today!

We haven't seen this before like twice in the past week or two...

Edit: One more for the doom and gloom indicators... Apparently, distillate (heating oil and diesel?) demand in the U.S. of A. is down a lot.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/barclays-note-on-distillates-showing-us-recession-is-near-2016-2

I've read that oil below $30 starts hurting Middle Eastern OPEC countries, so whenever it goes below $30 expect there to be some rumor to try to get it back above $30

 

[FelixDeCat]

 

[FelixDeCat]

SUNE $1.50!!

It also appears to be headed for bankruptcy.

 

[JEDI]

qqq is up 1.5% so far yet biotechs are breakeven?

 

[holden j caufield]

SUNE $1.50!!

It also appears to be headed for bankruptcy.

you can get 10000 shares for dirt cheap. I saw this down to 1.4 and up to 1.65 in an hour. Just don't get caught holding the bag.

 

[FelixDeCat]

you can get 10000 shares for dirt cheap. I saw this down to 1.4 and up to 1.65 in an hour. Just don't get caught holding the bag.

"Get holding the bag" is right! Back in 2008 I bought 15,000 shares of FNMA for $3 when it crashed from $7 on fears of bankruptcy. Then came gossip the government would "aid" them. I dumped all the shares an hour later for $6+ and my biggest 1 day profit ever. It closed at $8!!

The next day the government did step in - and took receivership of FNMA (that it still has) and all shareholder equity was wiped out for cash injections of $200 billion dollars. The stock went as low as TEN CENTS! That is holding the bag!

Eight years later .... the government has long been paid back and they still get billions and billions in profit from FNMA/FHLMC.

 

[OverVolt]

Oh, hey everyone, there's "talk" about OPEC members working out a "deal" again! Crude is up like 4% since the lows of today!

We haven't seen this before like twice in the past week or two...

Edit: One more for the doom and gloom indicators... Apparently, distillate (heating oil and diesel?) demand in the U.S. of A. is down a lot.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/barclays-note-on-distillates-showing-us-recession-is-near-2016-2

My understanding is that this just gives OPEC a small price bump while their market share has grown and they keep pumping anyway. As in... its part of their strategy. Just makes it so they can afford to keep capturing market share for longer.

Oil cant stay this cheap forever though, thats for sure. Oddly enough I don't care. I just carry on using hardly any.

 

[Imp]

So, thinking about stupid and risky ideas...

If one expects a major market correction, what is the risk of going big into a VIX index ETF?

With oil ETFs, it's hard to find something not leveraged, have to deal with decay, and maybe a decade of low oil prices.

I've done 1 minute of research on VIX ETFs so far... how can I go wrong?

Edit: Looked it up, yep, hardcore decay. Don't even have to be leveraged. Not to mention, funds may not be open-ended so tax headache = no thanks.

 

[holden j caufield]

"Get holding the bag" is right! Back in 2008 I bought 15,000 shares of FNMA for $3 when it crashed from $7 on fears of bankruptcy. Then came gossip the government would "aid" them. I dumped all the shares an hour later for $6+ and my biggest 1 day profit ever. It closed at $8!!

The next day the government did step in - and took receivership of FNMA (that it still has) and all shareholder equity was wiped out for cash injections of $200 billion dollars. The stock went as low as TEN CENTS! That is holding the bag!

Eight years later .... the government has long been paid back and they still get billions and billions in profit from FNMA/FHLMC.

I'm tempted, I've got a limit order at much lower than 1.4 today. If it hits I know I can get out quickly for some profit. At 1.4 I don't know if there is any quick profit now (at 10am there was) and I'm not looking to be holding this when they have hearings about vivant solar and their earning next week.

I don't mind taking a gamble on a ton of shares at this price range. I pickup up a bunch of GLUU and then ZNGA at $2 each. GLUU worked out great, ZNGA is a small loser but the gains on GLUU far outweigh ZNGA thus far. I'm tempted on AMD as that's in the same price range.

 

[OverVolt]

So, thinking about stupid and risky ideas...

If one expects a major market correction, what is the risk of going big into a VIX index ETF?

With oil ETFs, it's hard to find something not leveraged, have to deal with decay, and maybe a decade of low oil prices.

I've done 1 minute of research on VIX ETFs so far... how can I go wrong?

I dunno.. don't go big... go small.

 

[Imp]

So, WTI (February) ends the day at about $29, up 12% from yesterday. Based on.....????

Well, it looks like $30 is the bottom for oil. Once it goes to around $27, there's some rumor or a ton of short covering. And a lot of smaller oil companies are still probably in trouble with $50/barrel oil.

 

[jpiniero]

And a lot of smaller oil companies are still probably in trouble with $50/barrel oil.

It's more than that - the frackers don't make money at $50, let alone at $30. I don't know when their hedges expire though, I imagine it's soon.

Could be someone speculating that $27 is the floor.

 

[theeedude]

Some UAE dude said OPEC may talk about cuts. Sounds legit.

 

[Imp]

It's more than that - the frackers don't make money at $50, let alone at $30. I don't know when their hedges expire though, I imagine it's soon.

Could be someone speculating that $27 is the floor.

Oil sands in Canada is probably even worse. Non-upgraded shit sold as Western Canada Select trades at ~$12 less than WTI. So, it's been $15 to $20/barrel for a while now. Upgraded crude is around WTI except upgrading costs a lot. Heard costs for some upgraded stuff were in the $40 to $50 range.

Some UAE dude said OPEC may talk about cuts. Sounds legit.

Rumor before that was Venezuela... then Iran... then Saudi Arabia.. I think one was Qatar and then Russia?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Maxed my ROTH yesterday... I'm convinced we hit the bottom for the year.... Until I prove myself wrong next week.

My gut feeling has been correct many times, we will see if this plays out or not. I see the overall volatility of the year, but I don't see a collapse/depression.

 

[Charmonium]

Some UAE dude said OPEC may talk about cuts. Sounds legit.

Right now, global production exceed demand by about 1.5M barrels per day. But if you look a chart of supply and demand, both are increasing. The only problem is that supply has increased faster. According to the EIA, the two should balance out by the 2nd quarter of 2017.

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm

 

[jpiniero]

That supply and demand is a very rosy outlook. I would expect both to go down, especially supply once the frackers implode.

 

[FelixDeCat]

That supply and demand is a very rosy outlook. I would expect both to go down, especially supply once the frackers implode.

Gas just hit $1.35 in DFW, thanks to those very same frackers. The Saudis did not want it that cheap, they were perfectly happy charging $$$ for oil.

I still cannot believe we got snookered into paying from $3.50 - $4.45 a gallon in Texas for nearly 7 years. Un-fracking-believable!!

I just hope we keep moving towards greater efficiency and not go back to our old, dirty, gas guzzling ways. :\

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Gas just hit $1.35 in DFW, thanks to those very same frackers. The Saudis did not want it that cheap, they were perfectly happy charging $$$ for oil.

I still cannot believe we got snookered into paying from $3.50 - $4.45 a gallon in Texas for nearly 7 years. Un-fracking-believable!!

I just hope we keep moving towards greater efficiency and not go back to our old, dirty, gas guzzling, 6000 pound SUVs, big V8 driving, 425HP, 12 MPG wasteful pig ways. Or you can one day see $4+ gas again. :\

So far reports have shown that this hasn't significantly slowed down the overall national drive towards energy efficient alternatives. So...... I think they are just screwing themselves over here overall.

I mean, in all honesty - I have a ~34mpg Acura TSX that I will drive till the wheels fall off. Ideally, I want those wheels to fall off sometime slightly after a well-developed self-driving car market has taken hold.

 

[Ricochet]

Definitely nice to have lower gas prices again. Now WTF are food prices still high? Restaurants & supermarkets use the excuse of higher transportation cost during the $4/gal era. FYI I rarely ever eat out or buy organic. Paying $1/$2 per bell pepper is ridiculous. Sorry for the OT rant.

 

[Balt]

Definitely nice to have lower gas prices again. Now WTF are food prices still high? Restaurants & supermarkets use the excuse of higher transportation cost during the $4/gal era. FYI I rarely ever eat out or buy organic. Paying $1/$2 per bell pepper is ridiculous. Sorry for the OT rant.

Not sure, but I think most supermarkets don't have their own transport fleet. That would make them slow to respond to a reduction in fuel prices, since their contracts with transport companies probably last a long time.

Also there may have just been a bad crop season. I remember ~8 years ago being shocked at how expensive bell peppers were.