***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Banana]

Nice trump bump. I was ready to buy on the big dip that did not happen (yet).

 

[zinfamous]

I've seen some big reversal over the years but today is pretty impressive. It's like 6% reversal for S&P and almost 5% for gold. Gold spot is now down minus couple bucks. Pretty crazy.

How much of this reversal is fueled by hedges and protection being unwound from fear of Trump victory and expected selloff we'll never know but we do know the world didn't end with Brexit and Trump win. My guess the world wouldn't have ended if Wall St and banks didn't get their bailout in '08-'09 like we were led to believe.

Still too soon to call, Snapper!

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

People said "OH SHIT THE SKY IS FALLING SELL SELL SELL!"

Then it became: "Oh wait our government prevents any massive drastic changes due to rules along with incompetent congressmen. Nothing will change lol"

 

[Imp]

And there we go, markets all up because markets wanna go up.

Makes you wonder if maybe the media was in cahoots with Hillary after all. All they kept saying was that if Trump was elected the market would fall. I guess it just proves once again that analysts are good for nothing.

Analysts, economists, "technicians," statisticians, etc.

 

[jpiniero]

Odds of the rate hike in Dec tumbled. That's what happened.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Odds of the rate hike in Dec tumbled. That's what happened.

Fed already clarified that they do not anticipate an impact on their decision of raising rates. Looks like they are still on for December.

 

[theeedude]

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=BONDS&p=d1
Long term rates went up (bonds went down) as investors are expecting more inflation from Trump/GOP's deficit spending.
http://finviz.com/map.ashx
Banks rallied on that, since they can now make more money on the rate spread.
Pharma is rallying on bets that they can go back to $600 EpiPens with no scrutiny from Congressional GOP and/or Trump.
Yield plays like utilities and consumer staples went down with bonds.
The question for me is why stocks went down with Hillary's odds before the election, but now that Trump won are going in the opposite direction. The market changed its mind on whether Trump is a good or a bad thing?

 

[Imp]

The question for me is why stocks went down with Hillary's odds before the election, but now that Trump won are going in the opposite direction. The market changed its mind on whether Trump is a good or a bad thing?

You'll go crazy trying to figure out the market because it's retarded.

Most headlines you see on "business" news are essentially mad-libbed.

"Market went <up/down> today because <recent event related to oil/politics>.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Gold rally not over. Im holding NUGT now. Last print $14. Hoping for $20.

 

[ponyo]

I expect gold and silver to do very well under Trump and feel very comfortable holding bullion. Unlike paper ETFs, my physical is long term position. I haven't sold an ounce since I started.

 

[ponyo]

I can't help notice the lack of lift in the FANG stocks yesterday and today during the market recovery. Lot of people jumped in those names thinking Hilary victory and end of the year MoMo rally. I'm thinking about shorting Facebook and Amazon on any decent rally.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well its a good thing you were not short Dry Ships. That piece of crap that was expected to go bankrupt had a short ratio of nearly 100% (due to several reverse splits). It had a market cap of $50 million.

TODAY they released earnings but also also the sale of a few ships. The stock opened at $5, went to $9, then $11 and is now over $14 on one of the biggest short squeezes of 2016. A 200% rally over nothing.


LOL

 

[Imp]

The DOW set a new record. S&P 500 stuck around 2170 which is below the ~2200 record in the past few months.

Edit: Fixed income dropping pretty hard. Treasuries ETFs like TLH for 10-20 years and TLT for 20+ years falling. Not at a 52 week low but it's going. Preferred ETFs like PFF and PSK also going.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Anyone here think marijuana stocks are a still good a buy? I know we just had a run up of buy the rumor and sell the news, but I can't help but to think California legalizing is huge for that industry, and possibly a tipping point for the rest of the country. A lot of these stocks are still up like 200-300% from August, but still cheap with low total market caps, so it's hard to tell.

 

[JTsyo]

Tech stock are dropping relative to the market. So how is Trump anti-tech?

 

[holden j caufield]

NUGT falling like a rock. Tempted at $8. Wasn't it at $30 a few months ago? Might go with GDX instead as that's hella less volatile.

 

[Imported]

So uhh.. I'm happy my mother kept her NVDA shares.

 

[zinfamous]

So uhh.. I'm happy my mother kept her NVDA shares.

yeah, they had an excellent day, eh? Looks like they are at the 300% mark on the year after today. Almost as good as AMD's top 350% from the year, but they have since fallen to a peasant 200% :\

 

[Imp]

Anyone here think marijuana stocks are a still good a buy? I know we just had a run up of buy the rumor and sell the news, but I can't help but to think California legalizing is huge for that industry, and possibly a tipping point for the rest of the country. A lot of these stocks are still up like 200-300% from August, but still cheap with low total market caps, so it's hard to tell.

I was also interested, but it feels like a crap shoot to me. It's like betting on a tech start-up. If I'm lucky, it'll get bought out by a bigger player. If I'm not, it'll go bankrupt.

Edit: And lol, we had some articles in Canada about how real-estate's going up because the Americans fleeing from Trump... No one tell them people say that in every election in Canada and the U.S. And have fun fleeing to a country with a weaker economy.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Gold rally not over. Im holding NUGT now. Last print $14. Hoping for $20.

Welp, I got my ass kicked on this one! In just 48 hours my 200 shares at $14 fell to $8 measly dollars. I sold calls, bought them back and still did not make up the loss.

Sold for a loss at $9 net.

*sad face*

 

[Imp]

^Shit happens.

WTI back to $43 (Dec contract) and below. Turns out when you have a supply glut, talking about a cut back to record highs doesn't really help. Don't worry, some rumor will push it back to $50 soon.

More surprising are silver and gold tanking today. DXY is just below 99.

 

[FelixDeCat]

^Shit happens.

WTI back to $43 (Dec contract) and below. Turns out when you have a supply glut, talking about a cut back to record highs doesn't really help. Don't worry, some rumor will push it back to $50 soon.

More surprising are silver and gold tanking today. DXY is just below 99.

Yup, I lost $1,000 thinking Gold would bounce. Instead metals suffered their biggest three days loss in years based on the expectation of higher rates and therefore an end to rate subsidized economies starting with our own.

The story is America is going to get rid of a lot of regulation on banks that will allow them to freewheel just like the good ol' days. That means higher leverage (back to pre-financial crises levels), etc. The end result is a much higher rates, which supposedly Wall Street wants and is ready for.

An oversold bounce is inevitable in Gold/Silver, but I reached max pain.

 

[Imp]

^I did some reading and the biggest worry appears to be long-term government bond yields/prices since the election.

We'll see, the Brexit tank lasted a few days. Let's see what happens next week. To infinity and beyond, yo.

 

[bookem dano]

yeah, they had an excellent day, eh? Looks like they are at the 300% mark on the year after today. Almost as good as AMD's top 350% from the year, but they have since fallen to a peasant 200% :\

I wish I would have been adding to mine. I have 200 shares..bought in 2008. Anyone have any idea of their ceiling?

 

[Imp]

Treasury yields continuing to rise pre-market, US dollar too. The 30-year Treasury broke 3.00% for the first time in a long time.

So... At this point, people who traded bonds are losing beaucoup money? Longer term fixed mortgage rates are supposedly tied to bond yields, so borrowing gets more expensive?

Guess only the Fed can fuck it up at this point by not raising in December.