***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

lol

 

[Charmonium]

I probably won't do it, but previous discussion got me thinking that it would be a bad idea to just have a few ounces or up to a kilo of gold for "safety." Purpose would be 99% to have an item that's held some sort of value for the past 10,000 years and won't go bad on me -- toilet paper and bullets eventually go bad if stored poorly. It's even fire proof to some degree -- too bad my corpse isn't. ETFs or storing it in a safety deposit box don't help for that?

I wouldn't buy bullion. You're better off buying things that are valuable for other reasons. Gold coins which are rare or have very limited mintages should hold their value better in a down market and be worth more when the market is up. Do a search on gold coins on ebay to get some idea of how such things are valued.

 

[KLin]

It was requested to post the following reply to Imp from a non member.

http://www.apmex.com/product/11934/1-kilo-gold-bar-various-mints

But you would be better off diversifying a little bit, mostly 1 oz coins and what I would call "premium bullion," mix and match how you feel comfortable.

http://www.apmex.com/product/84889/2015-canada-1-oz-gold-maple-leaf-bu
http://www.apmex.com/product/39598/1-oz-gold-buffalo-bu-random-year?toppicks4
http://www.apmex.com/product/93765/2016-great-britain-gold-1-oz-britannia-bu
http://www.apmex.com/product/1122/20-saint-gaudens-gold-double-eagle-au-random-year
http://www.apmex.com/product/14243/1930-uruguay-gold-5-pesos-au-agw-2501

If you wish to do all this completely anonymously, my advice is to go to a big coin show (if they have them in Canada) or even a local coin shop, and bring lots of cash and be careful. I don't think others listened to you, you want a $35-40k "golden" insurance policy. Nothing wrong with that. And for this, you do not buy a promise of gold, you just buy the gold. ETF's and other forms of paper gold are for investing/gambling, they are not insurance policies. A 1928 $20 Gold certificate today has much less value than the gold in the coin it was then redeemable for. That's why you just take the gold and not the promise. Like you said, gold can't be destroyed, not nearly as easily as a promise can be broken. Insurance policies are about avoiding risk. And it's not about making money or being worried if it goes down in value. Nobody kicks themselves in the ass for buying fire insurance for 20 years because their house never caught fire.

kthxbai

 

[Charmonium]

I'm not familiar with all of those coins but I don't think most of them have limited mintages. The Buffalo coin from the US mint for example doesn't. But most other US Mint coins do and the mintages vary from as low as 20k up to around 50k.

Of course you do pay a steep premium for USM coins but because of the limit in the number produced, they tend to hold their value.

The same is true for older gold coins with numismatic value. Often that aspect of their price can far outweigh the value of the gold content.

 

[dullard]

Nobody kicks themselves in the ass for buying fire insurance for 20 years because their house never caught fire.

That is a terrible comparison. The only time that gold is needed for its "value through any circumstance" idea is when something really terrible happens. A house fire isn't that bad of an event.

A better comparison would be buying sun eating the Earth insurance for 20 years. Sure, you'll be quite glad that the sun didn't envelop the Earth. And you'd think you'll be glad that you had the insurance if the sun does envelop the Earth in your lifetime. But, if you really thought through the scenario, you'd realize that at least one of (A) you or (B) the insurance company likely won't make it through that event so you can't collect anyways.

Gold bars are the same thing. If we experience such a terrible event that cash, ETFs, land, ammo, etc have no value, then gold would have no use either.

 

[ISAslot]

That is a terrible comparison. The only time that gold is needed for its "value through any circumstance" idea is when something really terrible happens. A house fire isn't that bad of an event.

A better comparison would be buying sun eating the Earth insurance for 20 years. Sure, you'll be quite glad that the sun didn't envelop the Earth. And you'd think you'll be glad that you had the insurance if the sun does envelop the Earth in your lifetime. But, if you really thought through the scenario, you'd realize that at least one of (A) you or (B) the insurance company likely won't make it through that event so you can't collect anyways.

Gold bars are the same thing. If we experience such a terrible event that cash, ETFs, land, ammo, etc have no value, then gold would have no use either.

Not to mention if things did get so bad, and you bought something with gold, the word would get around fast and many will come to take it from you.

 

[FelixDeCat]

100 on the QQQs here we come

 

[FelixDeCat]

lol

 

[Imp]

I wouldn't buy bullion. You're better off buying things that are valuable for other reasons. Gold coins which are rare or have very limited mintages should hold their value better in a down market and be worth more when the market is up. Do a search on gold coins on ebay to get some idea of how such things are valued.

It was requested to post the following reply to Imp from a non member.

kthxbai

Interesting. Forgot about coins. Come to think of it, ya, bullion probably isn't a great idea and difficult to perform transactions with.

To remind you, I'm just thinking this stuff over and exploring options. Not really planning on doing anything.

 

[jpiniero]

Not that they couldn't have come up with something else, but the Paris attacks make it far too easy for the Fed with coming up with an excuse.

 

[Imp]

Not that they couldn't have come up with something else, but the Paris attacks make it far too easy for the Fed with coming up with an excuse.

Cynical me agrees... but what's the "concern" exactly? That they'll start bombing the Middle East?

 

[sm625]

100 on the QQQs here we come

Well that went well. So what's next, QQQ 120 here we come?

 

[dullard]

I have a first world problem and related question.

In January this year my wife and I both contributed the max to our Roth IRA. During the year, we both got raises and bonuses that were more than expected. And finally, the DSLV stock that I like to dabble in with a taxable account has been really outdoing itself this year (letting me buy in in the $40-$50 range and sell in the $70 range three times so far).

This puts me in the situation that I can:
(A) Sell all of my DSLV now before the peak. We would be just below the lower Roth IRA income limit so no worries there. But I would not get the full gains on my stock.

(B) Wait until DSLV reaches the upper $70 range. Sell then. But then we would be in the Roth IRA income cap range and have to withdraw a portion of it. The result would be a lot more paperwork and less money in a tax-deferred account.

(C) Wait until 2016 to sell DSLV, in which case I may have missed this whole opportunity to gain on it since it could easily be back in the $40 range by then.

What would you choose? More profit now and less in the retirement account. Or less profit now and more in the retirement account. Sadly, I think option B is needed. What makes it hard to do though, is that I don't know what my dividends will be on other stocks until late December, so I don't know the exact max price that I can sell DSLV at.

 

[Train]

I wouldn't buy bullion. You're better off buying things that are valuable for other reasons. Gold coins which are rare or have very limited mintages should hold their value better in a down market and be worth more when the market is up. Do a search on gold coins on ebay to get some idea of how such things are valued.

This is a terrible idea. The rare stuff is for collectors. Getting the rare stuff to protect yourself should you need to liquidate in a down market is risky, it's too hard to move. You may end up high and dry when unable to find a buyer. Not to mention the collectible stuff usually comes with the requirement to pay sales tax.

Buy good old American Silver Eagles. Mintages in the tens of millions per year. You can ALWAYS sell them off at a moments notice. Ya the price fluctuates with the spot price, but the premiums typically move inversely. Besides, you don't get into metals to day trade, you hold them for years, decades preferably.

Some people like to diversify into other Govt backed coins. The Canadian Maple Leaf is good, UK Britannia's are good, Australia, Mexico, also have standard 1 oz silver coins.

 

[Charmonium]

I don't think you'll ever be "high and dry" but sure, the liquidity of rare collectibles tends to fluctuate. The important thing is that rarity will always be valued, so unless you envision some sort of dystopian future where money is worthless and you need to barter precious metals, there isn't any issue about the long term value of collectibles.

I do agree with you to some extent though, which is why I favor gold or platinum content over rarity. I sold most of my PM coins a few years ago and nothing ever sold for just the spot value. I always got back the premium I paid.

 

[sm625]

This puts me in the situation that I can:
(A) Sell all of my DSLV now before the peak. We would be just below the lower Roth IRA income limit so no worries there. But I would not get the full gains on my stock.

(B) Wait until DSLV reaches the upper $70 range. Sell then. But then we would be in the Roth IRA income cap range and have to withdraw a portion of it. The result would be a lot more paperwork and less money in a tax-deferred account.

(C) Wait until 2016 to sell DSLV, in which case I may have missed this whole opportunity to gain on it since it could easily be back in the $40 range by then.

First of all I would make my decisions based on the price of the underlying. What does "upper $70 range" represent to you in terms of the price of the underlying asset? It seems like you are targetting the bottom of a channel, and that looks like a good call to me. Shorting silver whenever it is trading at its 200dma is a good bet, especially when the 200dma coincides with a clear trend channel. Since silver is near the bottom of its trend channel, most of your position should have been sold off by now. If there are good accounting reasons to do so then that is all the more reason to close it out completely. The problem is that silver really looks to be targetting $13, or even $12, which tends to make one greedy.

 

[dullard]

The problem is that silver really looks to be targetting $13, or even $12, which tends to make one greedy.

One interest rate move could pull the floor out of silver. $10 to $12 isn't unthinkable. For most of recent history, it was in the $5/ounce range, although I certainly am not counting on it going back that low any time soon.

Maybe I should sell now. And then rebuy it the same day. Lock in the gains and then try for selling it in 2016.

 

[Imp]

Fed minutes came out for last month's meeting. Looks like December is slightly more a sure thing.

And WTI hit below $40 around noon today. Massive supply glut and it's winter now so it probably won't get better. Oh, and Iran should be ready to dump their supply within the next few months.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well that went well. So what's next, QQQ 120 here we come?

Looks like the QQQs are stubbornly staying up, refusing to correct again. Sold my QQQ Jan 113 puts for a small profit a few days ago.

In other news, Im back in biotech with a few shares of AVXL. Biotech has been my best play this year (ADXS). I think Ill just buy & add AVXL since on options are available.

 

[edro]

Are there any services that will give recommendations on mutual fund sector cycles or timing?
It seems like there should be patterns in sector performance that you could take advantage of.

It seems too conservative to pick 10 diverse mutual funds and let it ride forever.

There has to be a website or service that helps re-balance your portfolio every 3,6,12 months or so.

Up till now, my strategy has been to shift money into a mutual fund that is historically down. ie... I shifted a bunch into Real Estate funds in 2008-9 and they have paid off very well.
The same could be done for energy now.


I just read about Vanguard's Personal Advisor Services for 0.30%.
https://investor.vanguard.com/financial-advisor/financial-planner
It sound like they help you rebalance and give advise.
It's limited to Vanguard funds only though.
Also, I don't know if it would be worth the .3% or not.

Thoughts?

 

[edro]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/he...m-vanguards-new-robot-human-hybrid-2015-05-18

Ugh. So it just recommends:
54% US Stock Market Index Fund
36% International Stock Market Index Fund
10% Bonds Funds

That's pretty underwhelming.

 

[dullard]

Are there any services that will give recommendations on mutual fund sector cycles or timing?
It seems like there should be patterns in sector performance that you could take advantage of.

It seems too conservative to pick 10 diverse mutual funds and let it ride forever.

There has to be a website or service that helps re-balance your portfolio every 3,6,12 months or so.

Up till now, my strategy has been to shift money into a mutual fund that is historically down. ie... I shifted a bunch into Real Estate funds in 2008-9 and they have paid off very well.
The same could be done for energy now.


I just read about Vanguard's Personal Advisor Services for 0.30%.
https://investor.vanguard.com/financial-advisor/financial-planner
It sound like they help you rebalance and give advise.
It's limited to Vanguard funds only though.
Also, I don't know if it would be worth the .3% or not.

Thoughts?

Yearly rebalancing basically does that for you. You end up selling a bit of those funds that did well and then buying funds that did less well. In the end, rebalancing forces you to buy low and sell high over and over again without any human emotions that tend to get in the way of these decisions.

I haven't tried Vanguard's Personal Advisor Services. It is a pretty new thing for them. Actually, I'm a bit unhappy with this, as a month before I qualified for free Vanguard advice, they dropped the free advice for this paid service.

But, I can help you with deciding if the 0.3% is worth it or not. Suppose you invested the minimum $50,000 required. Suppose you got a typical 8% return. Suppose you sold the shares in an average of 40 years from today (you probably won't sell them the day you retire). Then without the 0.3% fee, your money would be worth $1,213,669. With the 0.3% fee each year, your money would be worth $1,077,268.

Essentially that advice will cost you $136,401.40. And that is with the minimum investment, if you have more invested it'll cost you more.

Now it comes down to if you (A) think that their advice will actually make you do better than the 8% assumed above and (B) will you actually follow that advice.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Thought I'd throw this out for information as I'm having more and more traders inquiring.

The NYSE will no longer be accepting GTC (good til cancelled) or stop orders as of February 26, 2016.

This will probably not affect most retail investors who use these order types as your broker most likely does not route those types of orders to the primary exchanges. Obviously you would have to ask them directly to be sure.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/17/nyse-stoporders-idUSL3N13C5NW20151117

 

[brianmanahan]

lol nvm

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

lol nvm

Once it's public, it's no longer "inside" - Hence, they are not guilty (IMO, IANAL).

That said, if anyone would be guilty it would be himself.

Interesting story. Damn shame I wouldn't mind being in on that pot