***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[JEDI]

oil just spiked +$2/barrel?!
what happened?!

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Link to hourly chart?

 

[Hugo Drax]

um.. what part of UWTI (VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN) did u not understand?

and did u buy DWTI ?

You should look into the 16x long crude ETN's

 

[JEDI]

You should look into the 16x long crude ETN's

symbol?!

 

[brianmanahan]

You should look into the 16x long crude ETN's

lolll

yo dawg i herd u like leverage

 

[Imp]

Job cuts in the oil sands. Numbers in the hundreds at just one company. And it's just getting started?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-alberta-oil-sands-operation/article22380452/

Tack on another 1000 jobs that made the headline. Oh, sorry, "strategic reorganization" or whatever.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...1-billion-out-of-2015-budget/article22434787/

 

[tortillasoup]

Holy crap. I wonder where I ran across the bad metrics. Had that in my head for years now.

You are right though.
http://alternativeenergy.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=001797

I thought diesel was more prevalent than gasoline. Perhaps I am thinking of the impact of trucks and SUVs where hybrid models would be pointless. I could swear I found something that said 10% somewhere. It would be reasonable to think that it was for commuting cars only, not those using trucks as work trucks.

Hybrid SUVs would only be pointless mostly because nobody has made a cost effective hybrid SUVs except for Toyota. The Highlander Hybrid actually does make sense at $4 per gallon gasoline what with it's real world fuel economy average of 26mpg (I know it's rated at 28MPG which is a significant improvement over the 19mpg or less it typically gets. Also if the person does a lot of city driving, having a hybrid helps reduce brake wear as well and the fuel economy improvements alone are significant in that scenario as there is little idle fuel consumption.

Hybrid CAN make sense but right now, the marketplace just doesn't have enough hybrid SUVs that are a good value. A $10K premium for a hybrid vehicle doesn't make sense but a $5000 can make sense depending on a few circumstances. If a person does exclusively highway driving, most hybrid models don't make sense over their conventional counterparts aside from the Prius.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'll still be buying hybrids going forward and the reason has nothing to do with economics. Some people want leather, some want acceleration. Everyone sets a budget of $X. I want maximum fuel economy that suits my requirements for $X.

I am sure that I am not alone.

There is a rumor that the PriusV will be getting AWD in a year or two. Baxcially the same powertrain as the Prius now but with an electric motor to power the rear two wheels.

 

[brianmanahan]

i only care about fuel efficiency if it means a lower total cost to me

if i have to pay more for a hybrid than the expected fuel savings, then i'm not gonna buy it. doesn't make economic sense.

everyone knows this

 

[JEDI]

Link to hourly chart?

from 2pm to 3:30pm, oil went from 45.25 to 46.75.
cant find any news about it.

oil is back at 45.50 and falling in in asia trading

 

[Imp]

i only care about fuel efficiency if it means a lower total cost to me

if i have to pay more for a hybrid than the expected fuel savings, then i'm not gonna buy it. doesn't make economic sense.

everyone knows this

But it feels good to know that when you mash your break, you're recovering some of that energy -- even if you know that you'll never make any of that money back!

Seriously, I felt "good" driving a Prius around unless I was trying to accelerate quickly to get out of a dangerous situation or backing into a really high curb..

 

[Kwatt]

Well so much for the so called "tax cut" of low price gas.

Retail sales dropped 0.9%. Instead spending the extra $50 at Walley World it is going who knows where.

Maybe it is going towards health care/ins. Or maybe steak one night a month instead of tuna helper? Saving it? HAHA.

I guess it could be paying down debt. Would that be a kick in the teeth or what? If the majority of people use it to pay down debt...Better hold on it will be a rough ride.

.

 

[JEDI]

Well so much for the so called "tax cut" of low price gas.

Retail sales dropped 0.9%. Instead spending the extra $50 at Walley World it is going who knows where.

Maybe it is going towards health care/ins. Or maybe steak one night a month instead of tuna helper? Saving it? HAHA.

I guess it could be paying down debt. Would that be a kick in the teeth or what? If the majority of people use it to pay down debt...Better hold on it will be a rough ride.

.

doh.. looks like my 5figure gamble into consumer discresionary was a bad choice.
yeah, I too was thinking about the gas 'tax cut' and people spending more

 

[Kwatt]

doh.. looks like my 5figure gamble into consumer discresionary was a bad choice.
yeah, I too was thinking about the gas 'tax cut' and people spending more

I did not make a move based on the "gas tax cut". I thought it would show up somewhere and most likely in retail sales. But, I would have had to dip into my cash reserves (30 months income) so I held off.

I never bought into the idea it would boost GDP. At ~$50,000 median income. I believe most are spending everything they get. If it is not spent on gas it would be spent elsewhere. The savings in gas is not a boost in income it just allows a reallocation.

When or if most people realize that income as a % of GDP has been falling since 1970. And if most decide to get out of debt the economy will get kicked down so far I won't live long enough to see it recover.

I will be looking for where that $50 a week went!

.

 

[zephyrprime]

I never bought into the idea it would boost GDP. At ~$50,000 median income. I believe most are spending everything they get. If it is not spent on gas it would be spent elsewhere. The savings in gas is not a boost in income it just allows a reallocation. .

Everybody already knows that. What you are forgetting to factor in is that money spent on gas goes out of the domestic economy to the oil producing countries. That actually means money into Canada, Mexico, and south America for the US since those are the primary suppliers of oil for us. The growth in GDP is going to result in money going into domestic spending instead of into foreign government coffers since most oil states direct oil money directly into goverment coffers.

 

[zephyrprime]

How low does everyone think oil will go? I believe it has to go low enough and last long enough to drive most frackers out of business and cause lots of fracker debt to default. The goal of opec is to end most fracking in my opinion.

Interesting video about past oil busts:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/oil-...-repeating-itself-FwnRoWyeQTWT8KPXf8aa6w.html

Last supply led oil bust lasted 13 YEARS from 1987 to 2000.

 

[Hugo Drax]

How low does everyone think oil will go? I believe it has to go low enough and last long enough to drive most frackers out of business and cause lots of fracker debt to default. The goal of opec is to end most fracking in my opinion.

It is slowly creeping up to war prices. Obama already got called by the Oil companies to start a war in the middle east yesterday.

So yesterday he asked for renewed war authority.

 

[Imp]

Last supply led oil bust lasted 13 YEARS from 1987 to 2000.

Woho... Good thing I bet so much on oil already. Don't worry, the value of my oil investment has dropped so much that it's no longer an eye catching part of my net worth -- not saying I went overboard or all in.

Well so much for the so called "tax cut" of low price gas.

Retail sales dropped 0.9%. Instead spending the extra $50 at Walley World it is going who knows where.

Maybe it is going towards health care/ins. Or maybe steak one night a month instead of tuna helper? Saving it? HAHA.

I guess it could be paying down debt. Would that be a kick in the teeth or what? If the majority of people use it to pay down debt...Better hold on it will be a rough ride.
.

No clue what's going on in the US of A. In Canada, I expect it to fuxxorz the economy. The Canadian dollar is now US$ 0.84-ish (= CAD$ 1). That probably means imports will get more expensive, maybe just things in general.

A lot of people who couldn't find jobs in the other provinces moved to the oil sands to get jobs. Fewer jobs in oil sands = heading home to other provinces = lost paychecks heading home and increase in supply of labor at home. Supposedly, this will increase manufacturing jobs... Except I've heard a lot about companies moving to China or back to the US in "Right-to-Work" states. Factories can't or won't just ramp up overnight?

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank said Canada's housing market is 63% overvalued (just google to see what all the other banks think).

 

[Imp]

P.S. Dafuq happened with oil around 2 or 3pm?

 

[JEDI]

P.S. Dafuq happened with oil around 2 or 3pm?

what happened is that I got stopped out of my Short

still made $25k.

now I;m unsure the price point for triple long oil

 

[Imp]

Send some this way, yo.

Dead cat bounce #2? "News reports" say people think oil's gone down too much too fast. Meanwhile, I'm not aware of any changes in the production or consumption of oil.

 

[Kwatt]

Send some this way, yo.

Dead cat bounce #2? "News reports" say people think oil's gone down too much too fast. Meanwhile, I'm not aware of any changes in the production or consumption of oil.

Did Russia cut off gas and oil to Europe?

.

 

[Imp]

Did Russia cut off gas and oil to Europe?

.

Considering their finances... I don't think they need every penny they can get.

 

[jagec]

But, I would have had to dip into my cash reserves (30 months income) so I held off.

You keep two and a half years' salary in CASH?

Like, in an FDIC-insured account earning interest, or stuffed under your mattress?

 

[Kwatt]

You keep two and a half years' salary in CASH?

Like, in an FDIC-insured account earning interest, or stuffed under your mattress?

Oops, should have been 30 months "expenses".

Just the bare minimum needed. It is not that much really. It will cover Ins. preminums, utilites, and food.

And yes in cash. Not in anything except a savings account. It made the mattress too lumpy. And I sleep well knowing it is there..

.