***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[IHateMyJob2004]

If people start wasting gas again because its relatively cheap (by comparison to $4+ a gallon), Im going to smack them upside the head. Its wasteful stupidity like that & not continuing to invest in more effecient technologies that gives us $100 oil.

In the USA, 10% of oil is used by commuters. The other 90% is used by trains, boats, long haul truckers, power plants, lawn mowers and all that good stuff.
That means that if all commuters went to hybrid vehicles, oil consumption would drop by about 5% and 95% would be used on all that other stuff.

People that buy hybrids that think they are going to make the world greener are not actually doing that. If they are lucky, they drive $15K miles a year and actually save money in the long term (extra price of hybrid vs cost of fuel saved).

If everything feasible turned to electric though, that would cause for HUGE reductions in oil consumption. Requires amazing battery tech innovation to do that though.

 

[FelixDeCat]

In the USA, 10% of oil is used by commuters. The other 90% is used by trains, boats, long haul truckers, power plants, lawn mowers and all that good stuff.
That means that if all commuters went to hybrid vehicles, oil consumption would drop by about 5% and 95% would be used on all that other stuff.

People that buy hybrids that think they are going to make the world greener are not actually doing that. If they are lucky, they drive $15K miles a year and actually save money in the long term (extra price of hybrid vs cost of fuel saved).

If everything feasible turned to electric though, that would cause for HUGE reductions in oil consumption. Requires amazing battery tech innovation to do that though.

Hogwash. I remember a Union Pacific Railroad commercial from a few years back claiming to get 100+ miles per gallon of diesel. There are eleventy billion cars on the road- we use the gas!

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Hogwash. I remember a Union Pacific Railroad commercial from a few years back claiming to get 100+ miles per gallon of diesel. There are eleventy billion cars on the road- we use the gas!

That's gallons per ton mile I think. It's a metric more like that.

 

[JEDI]

wtf?! oil just took a huge nose dive this past hr.
what happened??

 

[Imp]

If people start wasting gas again because its relatively cheap (by comparison to $4+ a gallon), Im going to smack them upside the head. Its wasteful stupidity like that & not continuing to invest in more effecient technologies that gives us $100 oil.

I take it that you're not taking your lunch in your F-150 and idling it every afternoon to celebrate?


DOW's up. So are a bunch of resource stocks, not COS, in Canada. Double dead cat bounce? Because I haven't heard of anything changing since yesterday.

And I get the feeling that POT is rising due to the exchange rate -- Canadian company, mines in Canada, probably sells potash in USD.

 

[richardycc]

wow GNVC is up almost 26% all due to the Lady Gaga article in Bloomberg about the hearing loss trial...nice!

 

[sm625]

I have a crash warning on the nasdaq. 5 day timeframe. Every time I get one of these patterns, someone always steps in and buys the everloving hell out of the market. But I still feel the need to note that this is a very bearish pattern right now.

 

[JEDI]

sold my mid-caps at open.
now it's 1% lower.

bought consumer discretionary at 1% below yesterday's close.

so it's like I gained 2%.
too bad consumer discretionary has dropped .5% more since I bought it.

and oil is flirting with $46/barrel

 

[JEDI]

I have a crash warning on the nasdaq. 5 day timeframe. Every time I get one of these patterns, someone always steps in and buys the everloving hell out of the market. But I still feel the need to note that this is a very bearish pattern right now.

ouch for techs.

I'm still bullish on healthcare mutual funds but how long can 25%/yr gains last? (it's been 5 consecutive years so far!)

 

[Imp]

Job cuts in the oil sands. Numbers in the hundreds at just one company. And it's just getting started?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-alberta-oil-sands-operation/article22380452/

 

[Kwatt]

Job cuts in the oil sands. Numbers in the hundreds at just one company. And it's just getting started?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...-alberta-oil-sands-operation/article22380452/

Not job cuts.

“It’s adjustments to the organizational structure.”

.

 

[JEDI]

and oil is at $46 now

edit:
and dropping. might hit $45

 

[Imp]

Sell, Mortimer, sell!

CAD$ down relative to US$... Once again, helping me to balance out the 10% drop for COS to $7.35 from $8.05-ish last week.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Regarding oil:
I really think that people believe in dueness or momentum and are biasing their beliefs on where oil is going.

 

[JEDI]

Regarding oil:
I really think that people believe in dueness or momentum and are biasing their beliefs on where oil is going.

Kinda like Dryships?

and oil dropped into the $45 range in Asia trading.

what would it take to stop oil's slide, besides opec saying they're cutting production?
when consumers start driving more and buying gas guzzlers again? (if so, this would take at least a year?)


edit:
when oil crashed back in 2008, what stopped it?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Kinda like Dryships?

and oil dropped into the $45 range in Asia trading.

what would it take to stop oil's slide, besides opec saying they're cutting production?
when consumers start driving more and buying gas guzzlers again? (if so, this would take at least a year?)


edit:
when oil crashed back in 2008, what stopped it?

As is. Saudi Arabia cost of production is something like $35 per barrel. OPEC on average is something like $55. World average is somewhere around $80.

It is an open secret that OPEC countries produce more than each says they are going to produce. One of the prevalent theories is that Saudi Arabia is driving oil prices down to hurt their OPEC partners. The next OPEC meeting in on June 6. Some think Saudi Arabia is going to tell all partner countries that it is time to cut the BS. Of course, there is always the chance of an emergency meeting of the OPEC countries but I doubt that.

Then again, June 6 could come and go and nothing will change.

Most small comapnies in the US doing shale and the oil sands in Canada will keep producing for about 2 years to service debt with the current infrastructure. Many exisitng shale wells won't last longer than 2 years. It makes no economic sense to borrow to drill more so wells counts will disappear. Not sure what the specific situation with the oil sands is.

But as strange as it is, I read things like this:
https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/presentations/FullHouseAppropriations010815.pdf

See slide 10 and ponder what the heck is going on. If that slide is accurate I am not that worried.

 

[JEDI]

so $35 is the defacto absolute bottom?

will place a buy on UWTI (VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN) when oil= $37.50/barrel.

whoa.. there's a triple short oil?! DWTI (VelocityShares 3X Inverse Crude ETN )
damn it.,. should have bought that.

and why is SCO (ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil) have more gains YTD than double short oil (DTO)?!
ultrashort = 2.5x short?

 

[Imp]

so $35 is the defacto absolute bottom?

will place a buy on UWTI (VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN) when oil= $37.50/barrel.

whoa.. there's a triple short oil?! DWTI (VelocityShares 3X Inverse Crude ETN )
damn it.,. should have bought that.

and why is SCO (ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil) have more gains TYD than double short oil?!

I found that triple short a few weeks back... Hmmm, now I have to find a triple long to buy when it does bottom. Who wants to save me some Googling?

 

[JEDI]

I found that triple short a few weeks back... Hmmm, now I have to find a triple long to buy when it does bottom. Who wants to save me some Googling?

um.. what part of UWTI (VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN) did u not understand?

and did u buy DWTI ?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Ya, below $35 and even Saudi Arabia will eventually have to stop pumping.

Oil is traded mostly in US dollars. Atleast OPEC oil. Some OPEC oil is traded in euros though. So the fact that the US dollar is strong means that it has more buying power which means that more oil can be bought with the same cash. So some of this drop is related to the rise in the US dollar. Not nearly all of what we see for oil prices but some of it.

 

[Imp]

um.. what part of UWTI (VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN) did u not understand?

and did u buy DWTI ?

Looks like SOMEONE didn't read thoroughly and probably skimmed. Hmmm...

Na, someone told me about it a year or two ago, but I have this thing about not shorting or leveraging. When I rediscovered it, oil was already at $55 and I didn't know how much lower it could go. Going long seems safer after everyone's bled dry somehow.


If we use 2009 as an indicator, oil bottomed around $33. COS bottomed around CAD$ 16 and it's now at CAD$ 7.

 

[tortillasoup]

In the USA, 10% of oil is used by commuters. The other 90% is used by trains, boats, long haul truckers, power plants, lawn mowers and all that good stuff.
That means that if all commuters went to hybrid vehicles, oil consumption would drop by about 5% and 95% would be used on all that other stuff.

That is so absolutely not true at all..

http://alternativeenergy.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=001797

As of 2005 (yes I know that's 10 years ago), 43% of oil consumption was due to gasoline usage. Gasoline has limited use outside of general transportation for assholes in SUVs and people idling in the drive through line at McDonalds. Diesel/Heating oil is 23%, with the rest of the oil being for everything else. You probably have confused U.S Energy consumption with oil consumption. This is no coincidence, this is how oil has to be distilled with not much flexibility in how it's refined.

Also ships/tankers, etc. use the most dirty oil, bunker fuel which is the dregs and can only be use for traversing international waters anyhow.

 

[JEDI]

Looks like SOMEONE didn't read thoroughly and probably skimmed. Hmmm...

Na, someone told me about it a year or two ago, but I have this thing about not shorting or leveraging. When I rediscovered it, oil was already at $55 and I didn't know how much lower it could go. Going long seems safer after everyone's bled dry somehow.


If we use 2009 as an indicator, oil bottomed around $33. COS bottomed around CAD$ 16 and it's now at CAD$ 7.

damn man... you would have been up 60% this year alone if you bought the triple short.
more if you bought it when oil= $55 last year

oh well.. I'm in for triple long when oil= ~$37.50

and oil fell to $44 but recovered a little and is now at $45 again.

edit:
oil back to flirting with $44

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

That is so absolutely not true at all..

http://alternativeenergy.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=001797

As of 2005 (yes I know that's 10 years ago), 43% of oil consumption was due to gasoline usage. Gasoline has limited use outside of general transportation for assholes in SUVs and people idling in the drive through line at McDonalds. Diesel/Heating oil is 23%, with the rest of the oil being for everything else. You probably have confused U.S Energy consumption with oil consumption. This is no coincidence, this is how oil has to be distilled with not much flexibility in how it's refined.

Also ships/tankers, etc. use the most dirty oil, bunker fuel which is the dregs and can only be use for traversing international waters anyhow.

Holy crap. I wonder where I ran across the bad metrics. Had that in my head for years now.

You are right though.
http://alternativeenergy.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=001797

I thought diesel was more prevalent than gasoline. Perhaps I am thinking of the impact of trucks and SUVs where hybrid models would be pointless. I could swear I found something that said 10% somewhere. It would be reasonable to think that it was for commuting cars only, not those using trucks as work trucks.

 

[Imp]

damn man... you would have been up 60% this year alone if you bought the triple short.
more if you bought it when oil= $55 last year

oh well.. I'm in for triple long when oil= ~$37.50

And if I didn't buy that turd COS, I'd be up 100%...

I'll dabble in triple long when it goes to ~$35. If it's obviously improving, I might average up. Out of my ass price forecast for oil is ~$75?