***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[Uppsala9496]

I didn't do it earlier because I didn't have the funds to do it earlier.
I have the funds today. Nice to see the market down when I am ready to make my contribution. Won't really make a difference in the long run since I won't be touching these for the next 20+ years. Just a nice mental feeling that I am buying cheaper today than yesterday.

 

[jpiniero]

Still waiting to see what the interest rate increase does to market. Really boring year so far.

Depends on how much they raise it really. I'm assuming they will raise it only once to 0.5% between now and the elections probably sometime in the Fall. It'll still cause a decent selloff though and scare the Fed from raising it any further. 'Course, if I'm wrong and they raise it more... all hell will break loose.

 

[Imp]

Depends on how much they raise it really. I'm assuming they will raise it only once to 0.5% between now and the elections probably sometime in the Fall. It'll still cause a decent selloff though and scare the Fed from raising it any further. 'Course, if I'm wrong and they raise it more... all hell will break loose.

Ya, I can't stomach the risk right now. Last time they talked about dropping QE in 2013, it sent my preferreds down 10-20%. They all recovered most of their value -- and then some, but why not wait a few months and maybe get in closer to the bottom than the top?

Or, with my luck, it's all priced in already.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Long May ADXS $20 calls

edit: added $25s

Going to $28???

 

[Imp]

Interesting... Shale oil companies took out insurance in case of a drop in oil prices. Heard about contagion from the low oil prices hitting other sectors like banks, but didn't think it would be this way.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...banks-on-hook-to-energy-firms-that-hedged-oil

 

[FelixDeCat]

Interesting... Shale oil companies took out insurance in case of a drop in oil prices. Heard about contagion from the low oil prices hitting other sectors like banks, but didn't think it would be this way.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...banks-on-hook-to-energy-firms-that-hedged-oil

Notice they mention Canadian banks. American banks sold hedges against their own hedges to protect themselves as well, they have also spread and limited risk as per stress test regulations.

Nothing to worry about really. Im hoping we move toward alternative energy and hybrids and higher efficiency before oil rears its ugly $100 head again.

 

[Imp]

...So I discovered US Treasury ETFs. Now I can park my money in relative safety while I wait for interest rates? Yields shit but more than zero and I've found some that are relatively stable.

Edit: Checked some charts. Or not.

 

[Michael]

I have been trading HK stocks recently. The link to China has created a bubble and via short term trading I am up a pretty decent amount of money recently.

Michael

 

[dr150]

I have been trading HK stocks recently. The link to China has created a bubble and via short term trading I am up a pretty decent amount of money recently.

Michael

Yeah, China is a loaded gun. Retail investors have gone from housing to the stock market to get some return on their money.

Chinese "QE" (or whatever you want to call their flavor of it) is artificially pushing stocks to levels that have no business being there. WHEN there's a correction, it will be massive. For for a short/mid-term trade play you can bank maybe 10-20% from here on out after a pull-back. ASHR is a good way to play these past few weeks.

Also....Cybersecurity stocks have been on a tear due to all the hacks. FTNT, CHKP, ZIXI already reported great quarters/stock gains.

....VDSI is supposed to go up big tomorrow after early AM ER. FEYE has their ER on Thursday. Then you have other elites PANW, CYBR, QLYS in coming weeks. Other plays are IMPV, RDWR, SPLK, BLOX. These should all be no-brainer gains. One should be able to lock in 3-10%+ gains on each of these if you buy before ER.

One can also buy the HACK ETF, but that doesn't have the huge gains of purchasing single stocks that are destined to swing huge this quarter and beyond. IF you only want to hold an "Apple type" long hold in cybersec, then that'd be PANW...the Lebron James of this sector.

 

[Michael]

I do not own any Hk stock for any real length of time. I prefer to exit the same day if possible. I know quite a few IR professionals in China and they seem to be pretty plugged into the stocks that will jump soon.

No idea how long this party will last but trying to make money in it while it does.

Michael

 

[FelixDeCat]

Thankfully got out of ADXS with a nice double. Biotechs got a long overdue beatdown yesterday!!

I even shorted AERI from $14 to $12 after a failed phase 3 study. Unfortunately, I thought AERI would rebound and covered too soon, it fell another $1.50.

The only thing I can see for a short term bounce is too many shorts piling in and very shallow volume. It is down 80% since the news broke. Also, the analysts who cover the stock still see long term potential for AERI and came to its defense when the bad news came out. They are trying to offer the only other treatment for Glaucoma, right now there is only one major treatment.

 

[dr150]

Holy cow.

Trading halted on Twitter due to leaked soft earnings. The irony is that the leak happened thru Twitter. :biggrin:

Was down at $39 at one point.

Trading has opened again and resumed.

If you're a believer in the name and a buyer in red, it doesn't get any better than this!

Currently TWTR is down ~19%/$41

 

[Imp]

...I still don't see traditional website ads on TWTR. How do they make money again?

 

[sm625]

Alright I'm going to toss my hand into this maniacal market once again. Long QQQ May 15 107 PUT @ $0.50. Will accept nothing less than a 5 bagger here.

 

[jpiniero]

Hmm... the feds dropped the I-bond variable rate to -1.6% and so new bonds are 0%. That doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement of raising the discount rate if the point is to fight inflation.

 

[sm625]

Adding to my position some shorter duration puts. Long QQQ May 8th 107 put @ 15 cents.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Anyone else get an eyebrow raise out of Janet Yellen's Fed comments today? We basically have our own Fed chairman telling us that the stock market is overvalued and needs a correction

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-yellen-says-equity-valuations-142814995.html

 

[KB]

Anyone else get an eyebrow raise out of Janet Yellen's Fed comments today? We basically have our own Fed chairman telling us that the stock market is overvalued and needs a correction

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-yellen-says-equity-valuations-142814995.html

This isn't anything new as she has said it before. Nor it is new for Fed Presidents. Alan Greenspan said the same thing in his "irrational exuberance" statement and that market continued up another 3 years before topping.

http://www.businessinsider.com/alan-greenspan-irrational-exuberance-2014-12

 

[Hugo Drax]

Alright I'm going to toss my hand into this maniacal market once again. Long QQQ May 15 107 PUT @ $0.50. Will accept nothing less than a 5 bagger here.

I hope you bought to close that position today since it is in a very profitable point with long options positions a profitable position could easily turn into a total loss position.

especially with 9 days left.

 

[Imp]

Finally. My preferreds are dropping. Hardcore. Now I don't know if I should wait or buy... FML. If I didn't know the first interest rate hike in years was on the way, I would definitely buy now. But something about bond yields already rising.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I hope you bought to close that position today since it is in a very profitable point with long options positions a profitable position could easily turn into a total loss position.

especially with 9 days left.

Calling the annual 'Sell in May' drop is seasonal bet everyone makes....just like buying QQQ calls in late October for a November / December 'Santa Claus" rally.

The lull between the end of most first & third quarter results for 85% of US companies is when the financial media loves to focus on negativity.

Yellen's stock bubble comments were similar to what I recall Alan Greenspan's comments about the late 90s tech bubble's famous "irrational exuberance". Except that Alan had a point, Yellen does not.

It took 15 years for the QQQs to reach the same level reached in 2015. If anything, things are normal but ready for a long overdue 10% correction.

True, we have a biotech bubble going on.....but its nothing like the tech & housing bubbles that caused 50%+ market selloffs in the past.

(It could be argued that a Fed induced 0% long term stock asset bubble was created over the last 8 years, but thats one hell of a long cycle....and a huge spike in rates to historical norms would cause a major correction but there is no political will for it)

 

[edro]

I know almost nothing about individual stock investing, but what is this strategy called?

- Buy stock that drops more than 10% in single day
- Sell within next week when price increase

I have noticed that most stocks that have a big drop bounce back the following day or few days.

What is this called? I'm sure it's not full proof or even a good idea to do, but I am sure people/companies do it.

Buy a Bounce?

 

[Imp]

Dafuq happened to oil? Down $2 today.

I know almost nothing about individual stock investing, but what is this strategy called?

- Buy stock that drops more than 10% in single day
- Sell within next week when price increase

I have noticed that most stocks that have a big drop bounce back the following day or few days.

What is this called? I'm sure it's not full proof or even a good idea to do, but I am sure people/companies do it.

Buy a Bounce?

It's called "you're probably going to get it wrong one day when it drops and keeps dropping and never goes back to par again."

<---Done it many times, essentially broke even over couple years with strategy.

 

[NikolaeVarius]

I know almost nothing about individual stock investing, but what is this strategy called?

- Buy stock that drops more than 10% in single day
- Sell within next week when price increase

I have noticed that most stocks that have a big drop bounce back the following day or few days.

What is this called? I'm sure it's not full proof or even a good idea to do, but I am sure people/companies do it.

Buy a Bounce?

Blind Luck in the case of people. Mostly blind luck and some obscenely complex algorithms in the case of computers.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Dafuq happened to oil? Down $2 today.

My guess is that he US dollar got stronger today. Oil largely trades in US dollars. When the US dollar gets strong, oil gets cheap. When the US dollar is weak, oil gets more expensive.