***Official*** 2013 Stock Market Thread

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M

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
666:
"Those who were closely following the S&P cash in the last seconds before the close, and who were eagerly looking forward to a satanic close of 1,666, were likely disappointed when in the last 5 minutes of trading the cash index ramped from 1,665 and easily crossed in and out of 1,666, with the final print pointing to a mid-1,667 close.

And then something happened: instead of a closing print of 1,667.50, over one point of the cash S&P suddenly was wiped out for no reason, in turn leading to the satisfactory 1,666 closing print or exactly 1,000 points higher than the "generational" lows of 2009. Yet, refreshing the settlement of the S&P500 an hour later, showed that the final closing price was, indeed, 1667.47.

So what happened?"
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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-17/how-last-second-flash-crash-pushed-sp-500-1667-1666
 
M

makken

Golden Member
Aug 28, 2004
1,476
0
71
YTD for me so far:

Cost Basis Current value Change
$20,118.46 $31,182.46 $11,064.00

Continuing to write OTM calls against my TSLA and SPWR positions. I have about $2000 in cash, don't know where to put it yet. any suggestions?
 
K

Kntx

Platinum Member
Dec 11, 2000
2,270
0
71
This rally, she just keeps goin! Gogogogogo.

Best holding of mine this year is JPM. Bought right after they reported those big trading losses.
 
JTsyo

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,737
890
126
Kntx said:
This rally, she just keeps goin! Gogogogogo.

Best holding of mine this year is JPM. Bought right after they reported those big trading losses.
Click to expand...

Have you looked at the markets in the last 3 hours? It was quite a downturn after the morning pop on the Fed news.
 
dr150

dr150

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2003
6,571
24
81
JTsyo said:
Have you looked at the markets in the last 3 hours? It was quite a downturn after the morning pop on the Fed news.
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Good short-term buying opportunity before the markets close in 40 minutes.

The markets will very likely go up tomorrow due to the "buy-on-the-dip" mentaility.
 
S

shadow9d9

Diamond Member
Jul 6, 2004
8,132
2
0
dr150 said:
Good short-term buying opportunity before the markets close in 40 minutes.

The markets will very likely go up tomorrow due to the "buy-on-the-dip" mentaility.
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Haha.. people who know nothing about the stock market shouldn't post their ridiculous predictions... All time highs at 15,500 and going to 15320 is NOT a dip!
 
C

Corporate Thug

Lifer
Apr 17, 2003
37,622
0
76
MNKD...the gift that keeps on giving. I'm anticipating $10-12 on positive Phase III date; $15 on PDUFA filing, $20 on FDA approval.
 
Attic

Attic

Diamond Member
Jan 9, 2010
4,282
2
76
Going into a long weekend I'd expect further sell off. With everything going on now it's a lot of risk to carry into 3 day weekend.

The market right now is really an upside down pyramid. Lots of equity built on not much real strength in the economy. FED printing has allowed this to balance and perpetuate because there is immense strength holding each side in balance. The FED can't remove that and the risk is the economy doesn't actually get strong enough to flip the pyramid.

Should be interesting year, and not too painful as long you appropriately account for the risk that a lot of folks are not discussing.
 
M

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,868
0
71
"The market right now is really an upside down pyramid. Lots of equity built on not much real strength in the economy. FED printing has allowed this to balance and perpetuate because there is immense strength holding each side in balance. The FED can't remove that and the risk is the economy doesn't actually get strong enough to flip the pyramid."
Click to expand...
I'd say watch for indications that comprehensive corporate tax reform, with repatriation of foreign profits, as something lurking in background (repatriated profits required to be targeted at domestic job creation, so we get some sort of economic stimulus as part of deal).

QE Infinity, launched last September, was supposed to act as a sort of bridge to try and nudge along economy, and bring down unemployment faster, until Congress got it acts together.

Sounds like debt has been stabilized over next 10 years, health care inflation cost curve might start to be bending, and even if we don't get a sweeping Grand Bargain, perhaps bits and pieces to somewhat achieve that end are stealthily being put in place (?)

Because gotta wonder what real reason, not yet obvious to all, for Goldman and JPM to jack up their year end targets just a while ago (I doubt it is just to sell to muppets, as Zerohedge likes to say):

- http://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-the-sp-is-going-to-1715-2013-5

- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...kes-sp500-target-1750-year-end-sees-2100-2015



"We've got one of the most flexible and adaptable economies in the world, and I think we are doing a very good job of coming out of the mess that we got ourselves into, as we always seem to. As I've said here, probably even to this audience before, sorry if I'm repeating myself, but I'm a product of the 1970s, and the '70s were such a disaster that this [current situation] looks like a walk in the park. We lost the war in Vietnam. We had a president resign in disgrace. We had gasoline prices go from $0.25 to $1 practically overnight. We had all sorts of food shortages and shipping grain to the Russians and creating all sorts of crazy inflation in the 1970s. New York City went bankrupt for all practical purposes. We were so much worse off then, than we are now, except we didn't have the media around to kind of trumpet all of that, so we probably didn't know how bad it really was unless in retrospect. And we recovered from that. And again, it took a while, it wasn't overnight, and some of it was painful. But we did get through it, and I think we'll get through it this time.

We are more flexible than almost anybody else in the world in terms of the economy, and that's an advantage that's so overlooked. I am an example of that flexibility. I mean, I was a sell-side stock analyst for years. I came to Morningstar as a salesperson. Then I worked as a manager of the technology research team, and now I'm an economist. I mean that's just the kind of normal flow of the world these days. That's not unusual. People don't stay doing what they're doing anymore, and if the jobs aren't there, people flex and move. One thing that I talked about last time, and now I've got some statistics to go with it, in the 1970s, when I grew up, nurses, about 2% of them, were guys, were males. Today that number as people have dropped out of construction and moved into other things, retrained themselves, today 11% of all nurses are now men and that percentage continues to go up, kind of an unbelievable statistic about how flexible we are in our economy.


And some of the economies just aren't as flexible. The guy who cuts my hair is Italian and he was back in Italy recently. He was asking his neighbors in Italy, his old neighbors, what was their biggest expense every month, and he said it was garbage. And he said they get their garbage picked up four times a week in Italy. I mean this is a country that is having trouble meeting various debt obligations and needs to cut back on the government. They are getting their garbage picked up four times a week. One day for this, one day for that, and come to the door and get the trash and they don't have the flexibility to say, "You know what, we are in tough times, we need to cut that down to three or blend one of these." That's some of the flexibility that we have in our economy that the rest of the world doesn't, and that flexibility goes far undervalued."


video presentation: http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=590496

Morningstar's take on Bernake's taper comments and slew of recently released economic data: http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=597996
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jpmorgan_051013_K.png


http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/SubmissionsArticle.aspx?submissionid=169792.xml
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This is a total guess, but seems to me that something might be brewing in DC that, hopefully, can later this year, push us from trend 2% real gdp growth to something closer to 3% real gdp growth.

Do definitely agree that market is rather frothy (credit markets, in particular?), and a healthy correction that really stings might be a good thing in the long run.
 
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Blackjack200

Blackjack200

Lifer
May 28, 2007
15,995
1,685
126
mshan said:
Do definitely agree that market is rather frothy (credit markets, in particular?), and a healthy correction that really stings might be a good thing in the long run.
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I don't know if that's in the cards though. The market had every reason to tick down today: long extended run up, comments from The Fed, Nikkei gets hammered, but the market just seemd to shrug it all off. Seems like that could be a very good sign.
 
C

Corporate Thug

Lifer
Apr 17, 2003
37,622
0
76
JTsyo said:
hmm lots of insider buying on this stock. Guess they are expecting success.
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they already met their endpoints in the first set of trials but the FDA rejected their application because they switched to what the company believes to be a superior inhaler (dream boats). There are a few minor changes between this set of trials (i.e. tritration levels) but for the most part, it's largely a repeat of already successful tests.
 
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