***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[Arachnotronic]

I think its just silly people getting carried away. The worst part about this is that KCG has told clients to not do business until they (KCG) are sure their systems are stable.. omg they were honest.

That said.. I sold 2.50 puts for an avg of .6111 - so we'll see.. I'm not exactly optimistic regarding this situation, however.. Institutions are their client base... Institutions are where short sellers borrow shares.. there are a TON of people shorting this.. It's almost a conflict of interest for large holders of the company to lend out shares for short selling.. If I were a large holder I'd lend them until blue in the face.. and then give KCG a huge loan.

The company will face bankruptcy soon. They're going to lose most, if not all, of their clients.

Until then, the stock will be an excellent trading vehicle.

 

[Hugo Drax]

KCG up 25% on rumors that TACGNOL might not be involved. So capital infusion or Citadel involvement is possible. No one would get near KCG if TACGNOL has KCG in its cross hairs. have no idea what that is it might be some kind of algo of sorts. mention of this TACGNOL on the bloomberg chat.

 

[The-Noid]

KCG up 25% on rumors that TACGNOL might not be involved. So capital infusion or Citadel involvement is possible. No one would get near KCG if TACGNOL has KCG in its cross hairs. have no idea what that is it might be some kind of algo of sorts. mention of this TACGNOL on the bloomberg chat.

Why is it when I search for TACGNOL all I get is a bunch of posts from 2009 about the market crashing from a guy who's email is h***.drax@gmail.com, discussing the 'plunge protection team?'

"hugodrax hugo.d...@gmail.com google finance 983582 DOW 3100-3150 will be
the bottom. That will probably be reached 2010."

I see nothing on BBG IB...

 

[Hugo Drax]

Why is it when I search for TACGNOL all I get is a bunch of posts from 2009 about the market crashing from a guy who's email is h***.drax@gmail.com, discussing the 'plunge protection team?'

"hugodrax hugo.d...@gmail.com google finance 983582 DOW 3100-3150 will be
the bottom. That will probably be reached 2010."

I see nothing on BBG IB...

TACGNOL is the equivalent of the "Matrix" on Wallstreet.

 

[The-Noid]

TACGNOL is the equivalent of the "Matrix" on Wallstreet.

Cool, so you should call your sales coverage and ask how TACGNOL is trading today?

 

[TheNinja]

My 2 very large holdings continue to kick ass

AAPL
BNNY

 

[Blades]

I win with the short puts.. Congrats to KCG.. kinda.. But still. average 'retail investor' on stock twits (read: hater) had shorted the stock so much. Large institutional ownership on KCG didn't exactly lose on this by loaning those morons the shares to short.. Kinda silly to short a stock that institutions both partially own.. can loan to.. and are customers of..

BTW.... STM has officially just passed OCZ for %gain.. and they pay a nice dividend - announcing pay dates further out than any other company I hold shares of.. Oddly enough.. my largest returning stock is FIG.. 34.7% - second is stx @ 30.16

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

One of my stocks (RFP) is up 20% in just a few days. Sadly, I am still in the red. Shoudl have DCAed when I had hte chance but I didn't. Oh well.

Want to buy navistar but I am starting to think that a recession is on the way:
https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:NAV

 

[KB]

PSEC.. amazing deal here.. Anyone know why this is 'sold off'... this is lower than their secondary offerring price of 11.15.. Now 10.82/81 .. anywhere under 10.9 is a great buy.. do the math.. research first tho. They'll probably declare next 3 months div on the 7th.


at 10.80 thats around 11.3% annual dividend yield.

Psec looks good from many views, like PE and dividend yield, but the problems with PSEC is that it's payout ratio is too high > 60% and they have had several share sales in the last year. I think KFN is a better deal when looking for yield. It is cheaper and has a lower payout ratio on its dividend. this means it is more likely to raise that dividend in the future.

 

[Blades]

Psec looks good from many views, like PE and dividend yield, but the problems with PSEC is that it's payout ratio is too high > 60% and they have had several share sales in the last year. I think KFN is a better deal when looking for yield. It is cheaper and has a lower payout ratio on its dividend. this means it is more likely to raise that dividend in the future.

I reduced from 22k (loaded up yesterday) to 10k today.. It was trading below book at around 10.82. I'm somewhat nervous regarding a possible div cut as we approach the date for the announcement of the next 3 months of divs.. One would assume it would be .101625 and continue that trend.

http://www.dividend.com/dividend-st...management/psec-prospect-capital-corporation/

I doubt it tho.. They didn't even cut the dividend during the 2008 madness. Back then they paid quarterly. Looking at various CEFs you'll see that most monthly payers trade at a rather large premium - especially compared to heavily discounted quarterly payers.

up 30.6% STX OCZ and STM neck and neck at 24.. Got PBI at its 52 week low yesterday.. holy div yield batman.

 

[Blades]

One of my stocks (RFP) is up 20% in just a few days. Sadly, I am still in the red. Shoudl have DCAed when I had hte chance but I didn't. Oh well.

Want to buy navistar but I am starting to think that a recession is on the way:
https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:NAV

I have NAV corp bonds. They are getting beat up today.. 9% yield on those suckers. 3% coupon trading at 86 cents on the $.

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/St...ntl+Corp+New+Cv+3%+|+Maturity:2014&ticker=NAV

btw: I got them at 89.. And that chart is.. yield.. so not exactly the best thing to see rising when you're a bond holder.. don't want it to look like this /

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I have NAV corp bonds. They are getting beat up today.. 9% yield on those suckers. 3% coupon trading at 86 cents on the $.

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/St...ntl+Corp+New+Cv+3%+|+Maturity:2014&ticker=NAV

btw: I got them at 89.. And that chart is.. yield.. so not exactly the best thing to see rising when you're a bond holder.. don't want it to look like this /

Oh wow. I never even cosnidered that. Thankfully it is Friday andi have a weekend to look into them.

Thanks for the tip!

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I have NAV corp bonds. They are getting beat up today.. 9% yield on those suckers. 3% coupon trading at 86 cents on the $.

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/St...ntl+Corp+New+Cv+3%+|+Maturity:2014&ticker=NAV

btw: I got them at 89.. And that chart is.. yield.. so not exactly the best thing to see rising when you're a bond holder.. don't want it to look like this /

So, you get a 3.5% yield (approx) on the investment. And make 16% at the maturity.

So 7% in dividinds over 2 years in addition to a 16% capital gain at maturity. So, a pretty safe 23% gain in about 2 years.

 

[Blades]

I have 15k STM at 4.58 cost basis.. I'm trying to find a reason as to why they are up 9-10% today.. We can factor in forex goosing the price since it is an adr.. It also had gotten fairly oversold.

and maybe this clown on the top of the page covered his short position..
http://stocktwits.com/symbol/STM?q=stm

So, you get a 3.5% yield (approx) on the investment. And make 16% at the maturity.

So 7% in dividinds over 2 years in addition to a 16% capital gain at maturity. So, a pretty safe 23% gain in about 2 years.

Yeah, I bought the bonds the last time they declined and they had a fairly quick bounce back. The stock is really volatile. I've kept 100 shares just to study it and sell 1 call option @ 27 strike.. so far i've closed the covered call position and sold back again 2 times. I'm now on my 3rd call sold at the same strike.. also sold puts yesterday and covered today. The common stock is volatile to say the least.. with the 27 call strike I sold it was if it paid a weekly dividend!

Fwiw Carl Icahn added to his position at 22-23.. I'm not saying thats the floor since he actually STARTED his position at 44 and 38.5
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/182593/carl-icahn-buys-more-navistar


Another follow up to ADRs price increase:
STM, ASML, and probably SI and DDAIF look like EWG. So many of these stocks are up on no company/sector related news.. Thats more of a question than a statement.. Still trying to figure out if I should trim some STM before it goes ex-div..

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Icahn's recent buying is why I took a look at NAV.

I think I am going to try to do those bonds in a roth-ira.

 

[Blades]

Don't go for the 2021.. Bonds are still in high demand and if equities continue to rally, there could be some major fire sales to free up cash. On the flip side, if all goes to hell in a hand basket (equities don't rally, things get worse on a global scale) and the balance sheets of companies start to deteriorate as a result, then yield will rise and naturally that will also lower prices. My point is, go for the earliest maturity date..

Icahn seems to be less involved with NAV and more involved with CHK - especially when it comes to shooting down CHK's debt. He seems to be confused in regards to how he can improve NAV - although I could be wrong, I don't think he has any mechanical engineering degrees or hell.. engine building experience at all.

Before Ichan, CHK was downright frivolous with the cheddar.. buying planes, expensive maps (aubrey had an expensive cartography hobby - i shit thee not - yet had loads of debt - so chk bought them temporarily).

I'd keep in mind that CHK earnings come out Monday. If you think its going to be a slaughterhouse for it's credit ratings.. buy the bonds during the subsequent fire sale..

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/StockNet/bonds.aspx?Symbol=chk

I prefer the maturity date of 2013.. Thats easy to just ride out and not care about bond price and soon enough to not wonder whether chk will go tits up.

NAV bond (as of today) I've lost ~4% of value (if i were to sell).. Price is 86.25 and I paid 89.75

CHK bond is 102.32.. already got one interest payment.. and I paid 103.. There was a recent spike in the yield.. might say something about the sentiment going into earnings.. Don't take my word on that.. I bought the stock at 13-14.5 and just closed my eyes.. .its volatile to say the least.

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/St...apeake+Engy+7.625%+|+Maturity:2013&ticker=CHK


Seeing as this is Anandtech.. Might as well post up an AMD bond.. ~5.35% yield

http://quicktake.morningstar.com/St...icro+Devices+Cv+6%+|+Maturity:2015&ticker=AMD

coincidentally I have all 3. Really it is a coincidence... Looked at Micron (yield was meh), various casinos (scary), supervalu (super scary).. and so on. Looking at Ford now*. The discrepancy between what Ford Motor Credit Money Market account yields and what their bonds yield.. hilarious. Different people you're lending money to.. I'd say that indirectly paying for someone's car loan is riskier than borrowed money for R&D costs.. yield doesn't say that.

*Nvm ford maturity is 2018/4%. better off in the LQD/JNK/HYG!

 

[mshan]

"According to CNBC's David Faber, Knight Capital will live at least for another day and avoid bankruptcy. Instead, it will experience dilution which will make its equityholders almost wish the company was filing. Knight, via Jefferies, is about to stick its shareholders with a massive dilution following the issuance of a $400 million convert bond at a $1.50 conversion price, or more than 60% dilution from Friday's $4.05 closing price. This means the pro forma share count will soar from 90 million to 350 million upon conversion, which as David Faber says, will take place promptly by all members of the syndicate after 10 business days. In other words, KCG just issued stock at a ~63% discount to new money."

...

"As for what happens next for KGC stock? It may well bounce following a sharp but brief short covering rally, only to be followed by an exodus as investors take the opportunity to cash out from a firm which has already indicated it will do anything to preserve its viability, including nearly complete dilution."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/knight-see-another-day-following-60-convertible-dilution

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48516238

 

[Blades]

Makes sense, the coupon is 2%!!! I wonder what it'd be if it weren't? Now all cv bond holders could take a short position at above 1.5 and rest knowing they just locked in their profits on a somewhat risky deal.

Honestly tho, if you sold 70-75c 2.50 puts you took a similar position for less $ - provided they don't go below 1.8

This is a case where as long as they do their job they will eventually get out of this hole they are in - there is a market for their services. Many institutions have a stake in company and they also happen to be their customers. Its not in their best interest to not use their services.I've noticed etrade sucking more than usual without them.

 

[The-Noid]

Makes sense, the coupon is 2%!!! I wonder what it'd be if it weren't? Now all cv bond holders could take a short position at above 1.5 and rest knowing they just locked in their profits on a somewhat risky deal.

Honestly tho, if you sold 70-75c 2.50 puts you took a similar position for less $ - provided they don't go below 1.8

This is a case where as long as they do their job they will eventually get out of this hole they are in - there is a market for their services. Many institutions have a stake in company and they also happen to be their customers. Its not in their best interest to not use their services.I've noticed etrade sucking more than usual without them.

The convertible is for 250MM shares. There are roughly 100MM shares out, figuring a good chunk are closely held and we also saw A LOT of borrow on Thurs/Fri; how exactly are they going to short enough to "lock in their profits on a somewhat risky deal?"

Selling puts is also not in anyway similar to this, see below.

You think in theory, the majority of your ideas don't actually work in practice.

The real answer is the short term of the preferred keeps them in senior status. If things tank even more for Knight, they won't convert the short term pfd, then provide some debtor in possession financing and walk out with the company after a pre-packaged bankruptcy. TD's business especially relies on Knight. If things go well and business comes back to Knight they will convert and be majority owners as a collective (see KCG intellectual property)...

 

[Blades]

The convertible is for 250MM shares. There are roughly 100MM shares out, figuring a good chunk are closely held and we also saw A LOT of borrow on Thurs/Fri; how exactly are they going to short enough to "lock in their profits on a somewhat risky deal?"

Selling puts is also not in anyway similar to this, see below.

You think in theory, the majority of your ideas don't actually work in practice.

The real answer is the short term of the preferred keeps them in senior status. If things tank even more for Knight, they won't convert the short term pfd, then provide some debtor in possession financing and walk out with the company after a pre-packaged bankruptcy. TD's business especially relies on Knight. If things go well and business comes back to Knight they will convert and be majority owners as a collective (see KCG intellectual property)...

If they were to short at 4-5$, they could eventually cover at 1.5 - like you said, providing there are actually shares out there to borrow. I was thinking that would be like selling before you converted to stock (which would lower prices from dilution). Fidelity is the largest holder of kcg stock - I thought it was strange for them to not do business with them.

I've never had experience with conv bonds in terms of the execution of those bonds - so yes, that makes sense that I think in theory. In practice, for other things, I am doing very well - it must be luck, huh? The kcg puts I sold have all been covered, at a profit, sans for 40 Aug 18 2.5 strikes @ .70 cb which I may just risk letting expire.

That's not my focus tho..

Has anyone noticed how well LSI has done compared to OCZ in the past two weeks? I used to own that at 5.65 - I've got MRVL 10k at 10.56, so I'm looking forward to their earnings Aug 16. Would you say that LSI is to WDC as MRVL is to STX? Should I be cutting that down now, or possibly loading up on more?

By the way, Noid. What is with the snippy comments, anyways? I'd say selling the puts (when the stock was in the 2s) did work in practice. What else do you have a problem with?

 

[Imp]

One of my stocks (RFP) is up 20% in just a few days. Sadly, I am still in the red. Shoudl have DCAed when I had hte chance but I didn't. Oh well.

Want to buy navistar but I am starting to think that a recession is on the way:
https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:NAV

*shudders*

I've been holding my oil sands since March. It went down 20% at one point, now it's only ~5% down... It went through at least 4 5-10% drops/rises in that time - I took advantage of that with my remaining money, made about 10% during that time. Meanwhile, my long has almost recovered back to zero.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Bought MRVL today @ $11.31. Looking to add more if it continues to drop. Earnings should be good: one of the main reasons it got creamed was due to the HDD shortage. But, uh, STX and WDC did fantastically. Let's not forget the company's insanely strong cash position and cheap valuation.

Let's see this sucker run to $15 post-earnings.

 

[JTsyo]

Bought MRVL today @ $11.31. Looking to add more if it continues to drop. Earnings should be good: one of the main reasons it got creamed was due to the HDD shortage. But, uh, STX and WDC did fantastically. Let's not forget the company's insanely strong cash position and cheap valuation.

Let's see this sucker run to $15 post-earnings.

Didn't the HDD companies do well since they made up more margin due to higher prices from lower supply? That wouldn't help Marvell.

 

[Imp]

Just sold the rest. Now at 100% cash. I'm up about 4% on the year, so far, so I can call it quits and still be pretty happy - compare with bonds and GICs with 2% rates if you lock in for a few years.

And it looks like we've hit the 13,200-ish DOW resistance point. Last two times we hit that around April, it corrected a bit, then corrected a lot. Will it break out with Europe in recession, Canada likely having its housing bubble burst (150% debt-income ratio)...?

 

[Blades]

I wouldn't want to be all in cash after the printing presses start up. I'd spread some of that $ out into names with low vol.. Healthy companies like RAI (hehe, below 45ish if you can).. Well, let me restate a little.. I'd never want to be 100% in anything.

on the MRVL note: The chips in HDDs (I gotta check that out) are most likely, a piss in the pot for MRVL.. They look promising in making the basebands (like qcom does here) for TD-SCDMA phones in china. A lot of the negativity (and price YTD) has been from the fact they were associated with RIMM in providing chips for their phones..


how funny is this daily chart of AMAT?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amat

oh no wait.. not funny.. INTC looked the same way.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=intc&ql=1