***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[Kntx]

The drop may be due to boredom and saturation. The company does not have many followers since they are just breaking out of a niche market, they are not widely known. All the interested people may have purchased, leaving no one left interested to buy. Or, it might not have been a true rumor as Aharami mentioned.

I feel bad that I missed Seagate and Western Digital. I have been considering them these last few months but thought their profit was already played out after the floods through their manufacturing centers, which still makes no sense to me. They somehow turned the loss of their manufacturing facilities into a profit. Damn.

Could also be some HFT going nuts on it.

 

[Arachnotronic]

LOL @ OCZ bear raid.

Got 2K shares @ $5.05. Out of those trading shares @ $5.65. Can't wait for the big news for my core shares.

Totally just made up for my AMD losses + more.

 

[JTsyo]

LOL @ OCZ bear raid.

Got 2K shares @ $5.05. Out of those trading shares @ $5.65. Can't wait for the big news for my core shares.

Totally just made up for my AMD losses + more.

What's bear raid? shorts trying to cover?

 

[Arachnotronic]

What's bear raid? shorts trying to cover?

Correct. You drive the price down, take out all the stop losses from the folks who bought in just for the buyout potential, and then you cover your shorts.

If a buyout happens, those shorts will need to have cheap shares and/or cheap calls. I talked to Theo Valich. If his info is good, this deal is basically done. If he's full of it, then...heh, this stock will likely go back to the $4's.

 

[woodman1999]

People shorting in droves. It's what drives the price down. If they were covering, the price would go up, as they'd be forced to buy.

 

[chusteczka]

Thank you guys for explaining how the HFT, bear raid, and shorting effected the price. I now see how you guys see things on a far more granular level than I do and I understand more.

Nice play Intel17! I now understand more behind your meaning that "fundamentals really, really don't matter". :thumbsup:

I am glad that I do not use the Stop Limit losses functionality. I tend to purchase only if I think the company will increase in value over time. That way, if the price drops unexpectedly (which I previously did not understand why it happens), then I just hold until the price returns to the levels I want.

 

[Hugo Drax]

LOL @ OCZ bear raid.

Got 2K shares @ $5.05. Out of those trading shares @ $5.65. Can't wait for the big news for my core shares.

Totally just made up for my AMD losses + more.

Whats your total YTD return?

 

[JTsyo]

Correct. You drive the price down, take out all the stop losses from the folks who bought in just for the buyout potential, and then you cover your shorts.

If a buyout happens, those shorts will need to have cheap shares and/or cheap calls. I talked to Theo Valich. If his info is good, this deal is basically done. If he's full of it, then...heh, this stock will likely go back to the $4's.

Knew I saw that name somewhere. Looks still to be a 50/50

 

[Arachnotronic]

Whats your total YTD return?

18% YTD, but I have been pumping in significant capital over the last few months, diluting that value. Break-even on my OCZ bet (my long core shares).

 

[chusteczka]

I jumped back into OCZ with 1885 shares at $5.43.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I jumped back into OCZ with 1885 shares at $5.43.

Smart move. The market makers will very likely try another shakeout like they did today. Hang tight. Grit your teeth, and wait for the news on Monday. Notice how after the huge "dump" (i.e. taking out all of the stop losses from the folks who jumped in for the buyout train), it recovered about half, and then was stuck in a very narrow trading range, even with huge blocks going through all day. Very controlled and slick exit from their positions.

The complete halt of insider selling + performance of the HDD manufacturers (lots o' cash right now) + pressure from institutional owners will force this sale.

Let's also not forget that the HDD manufacturers are doing *really* well and now would be the time to invest in SSDs -- when they're still cheap.

Oh yeah, and there's also the case of this: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/unusual-upside-bet-ocz-technology-074511745.html

I wonder why someone would make such a huge bet that loses hard unless the stock goes to $11...at which that person merely breaks even? Hmmm...

 

[SunnyD]

FB after hours pre-financials panic time anyone?

 

[chusteczka]

Smart move. The market makers will very likely try another shakeout like they did today. Hang tight. Grit your teeth, and wait for the news on Monday. Notice how after the huge "dump" (i.e. taking out all of the stop losses from the folks who jumped in for the buyout train), it recovered about half, and then was stuck in a very narrow trading range, even with huge blocks going through all day. Very controlled and slick exit from their positions.

The complete halt of insider selling + performance of the HDD manufacturers (lots o' cash right now) + pressure from institutional owners will force this sale.

Let's also not forget that the HDD manufacturers are doing *really* well and now would be the time to invest in SSDs -- when they're still cheap.

Oh yeah, and there's also the case of this: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/unusual-upside-bet-ocz-technology-074511745.html

I wonder why someone would make such a huge bet that loses hard unless the stock goes to $11...at which that person merely breaks even? Hmmm...

Your confirmation is much appreciated. I have been thinking similar thoughts as you mentioned, with my thoughts not being as sophisticated. I sold on Friday to be safe, and gave Seagate a few days to deny the rumors. They have been quiet, they have done well this past year, and they need SSD technology to remain a leader in the hard drive market. With Western Digital being a similar leader in the market, even if the deal with Seagate falls through, Western Digital may take advantage of the opportunity.

I feel fairly safe with this situation.

I have the ability to purchase another 2000 shares and will watch OCZ tomorrow for an opportunity to purchase. With my purchase today, I will not be upset if the price jumps tomorrow and I am unable to purchase more.

I figure the downside is a potential loss of $1.00 - $1.50 per share, whereas the potential upside could be anywhere from $1.50 - $7.00 per share.

It is a calculated risk made on not enough information with the added safety of increased sales this fall as we enter the holiday season for a company well positioned for future growth.

Edit:
I noticed that today's opportunity lasted 6-10 minutes and I will pay better attention tomorrow for a repeat opportunity.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Yup. Risk/reward is good. And watching the trading just convinced me that someone wanted shares. Lots and lots of cheap shares. And they got 'em. Volume was insane today on the huge drop, and still sizable going into the afternoon, even with price range restricted.

Honestly, this seems like an orderly march of the short sellers out of their positions.

 

[Imp]

Only 7.3%? That's a pretty steep fall considering they didn't release anything yet.

Well, don't you worry. It ended the day down 8.5%... Then they released earnings and it's now down 11.12% after-hours tradings. lulz?


lulz on me... SU is rallying again and I sold half my holdings. Luckily, I've screwed it up this way before, so learned to keep half in. Damn buy and hold beating my speculation.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

FB after hours pre-financials panic time anyone?

FB seems to have made an all time low in after hours. last trade according to Google was $23.97

https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:FB

 

[chusteczka]

Yup. Risk/reward is good. And watching the trading just convinced me that someone wanted shares. Lots and lots of cheap shares. And they got 'em. Volume was insane today on the huge drop, and still sizable going into the afternoon, even with price range restricted.

Honestly, this seems like an orderly march of the short sellers out of their positions.

I also noticed the huge volume but was not able to come to any conclusions on my own. Your conclusions make sense. That stability at $5.44 is really odd.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I also noticed the huge volume but was not able to come to any conclusions on my own. Your conclusions make sense. That stability at $5.44 is really odd.

Oh, look, OCZ is up 10% pre-market. How cute, market makers! Lots of volume in a narrow, lowered range? And now the next day, it's suddenly worth 10% more on no news?

http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/3q91fo/

Seriously, though, if you hold OCZ short over the weekend without some calls or something to cover you, you have a LOT of balls.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I told all of you. Buy OCZ. It was cheap. It's at $7.50 right now.

chusteczka, good job. You're up over $4K this morning.

 

[woodman1999]

60 day required holding period sucks. It keeps me from playing these big swings, but fortunately I had averaged my way in over the past two months to a $4.90 cost basis in OCZ. Sadly, the requirement kept me from buying more after it crapped its pants with the earnings.

Thoughts on whether it's worth grabbing more at this point?

 

[Arachnotronic]

Stand pat. If the buyout goes through, we double from here. No need to raise your cost basis.

 

[woodman1999]

That's what I figured. Just trying to get greedy.

 

[intogamer]

60 day required holding period sucks. It keeps me from playing these big swings, but fortunately I had averaged my way in over the past two months to a $4.90 cost basis in OCZ. Sadly, the requirement kept me from buying more after it crapped its pants with the earnings.

Thoughts on whether it's worth grabbing more at this point?

Do you work in the financial sector?

 

[woodman1999]

Sort of. High net worth wealth management.

 

[The-Noid]

Do you work in the financial sector?

Shouldn't matter.

Even in the financial sector you can become independent of companies you do not receive material nonpublic information after it has been disseminated.

Seems like a really stupid rule that should be only specific to single companies and be specific to an exception list.