***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Nice buying opportunity...

So, we're down because people are afraid there won't be any more stimulus apparently. That's been pretty open knowledge for a while given the hueg deficit and debt. Back up tomorrow?

 

[The-Noid]

Nice buying opportunity...

So, we're down because people are afraid there won't be any more stimulus apparently. That's been pretty open knowledge for a while given the hueg deficit and debt. Back up tomorrow?

-18.75 on ESM2 @ 10:57.

 

[TheNinja]

I thinking of dumping 20k into something to try and catch a quick bounce up for 5-6% but something I could hold over a few months if I needed to to avoid a big loss. Which is a good candidate 🙂

AAPL
AMZN
MU
NOV
C
Other

If you can predict this btw you are amazing.

 

[Imp]

-18.75 on ESM2 @ 10:57.

No comprende missa...

I thinking of dumping 20k into something to try and catch a quick bounce up for 5-6% but something I could hold over a few months if I needed to to avoid a big loss. Which is a good candidate 🙂

AAPL
AMZN
MU
NOV
C
Other

If you can predict this btw you are amazing.

I'd go with AAPL out of that group.

C is globally exposed, and not reliant on retail banking, IIRC, so mostly investments. C also failed the most recent Fed bank stress test. I'd rather go BAC than C now...

I still think AMZN is outrageously priced, and am concerned about a NFLX happening. Obviously, one is on much sounder footing, but still...

 

[TheNinja]

No comprende missa...



I'd go with AAPL out of that group.

C is globally exposed, and not reliant on retail banking, IIRC, so mostly investments. C also failed the most recent Fed bank stress test. I'd rather go BAC than C now...

I still think AMZN is outrageously priced, and am concerned about a NFLX happening. Obviously, one is on much sounder footing, but still...

I'm leaning towards AAPL just b/c I think it's a good one to get into at some point. I'd like a dip back into the 500s but I don't want to miss the boat either. I hope to make some quick cash but even if AAPL dips after I buy I figure AAPL will likely be above it's current position at SOME point in the future. Whether it's 3 days from now or 3 years is anyone's guess though.

 

[PimpJuice]

RIMM?

That is the one stock I am happy to buy more of if it goes down. Every quarter, what do they report? Sometihng like $400 million in Free Cash flow for that quarter? No debt and generating hundreds of millions in cash.

Yes, it is a bit of a gamble. But the odds of loosing are not that bad when looking at price vs. value.

FYI, Its going down, I hope you bought more!

 

[Hugo Drax]

Wow, this has been a bloodbath!

You really need to step away from trading before you lose your entire trading capital.

 

[Jeffg010]

I jumped into SIRI 2 days ago. Everyone is predicting it to hit $3.00. Today Is hard to watch but I'm doing a long run and I think I have a good chance with SIRI. Each quarter SIRI posts good earnings and talks with Liberty to grab 10% of the shares for 51% should help push it.

 

[Arachnotronic]

You really need to step away from trading before you lose your entire trading capital.

I'm up quite a bit YTD, so I'm good. Used today to increase my position in INTC.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I thinking of dumping 20k into something to try and catch a quick bounce up for 5-6% but something I could hold over a few months if I needed to to avoid a big loss. Which is a good candidate 🙂

AAPL
AMZN
MU
NOV
C
Other

If you can predict this btw you are amazing.

INTC. They've got an earnings report coming soon, and they have a history of hitting new 52-week highs after each report.

Also, for the love of god folks, stay way from RIMM! They're pretty much a gamble at this point. They have no hope of recovery in the face of...pretty much all the great Android phones, the Windows Phones, and even the iPhone.

 

[mshan]

Originally Posted by Hugo Drax
You really need to step away from trading before you lose your entire trading capital.

I'm up quite a bit YTD, so I'm good. Used today to increase my position in INTC.

I think what Hugo may be suggesting, at least based upon your postings in this thread, is that it seems you really have no disciplined trading or investment strategy (let alone one that is actually proven to work over extended periods of time and in a market that isn't lifting all boats), and definitely no overall portfolio risk management in place.

It's great to hear you are up on the year, but are you only counting your winners? And what about that stockpile of cash earning 0% rate of return.

If you want an honest benchmark to measure performance, you need to take your whole investment / trading capital, weigh everyone proportionally (huge 0% rate of return cash position really drags down overall returns), and take all of your trades (both winners and losers), in the sequence they occurred, realizing that 50% loss means you need 100% return on subsequent investment just to break even, not counting trading costs.

Especially if you trade frequently, I would guess it is not as important to be right or wrong on any given trade, you need to make more money when you are right than when you are wrong (so you can compound small gains into large overall gain), and you always have to have a healthy respect for unexpected turn in market than can damage your capital base so badly that it is hard to recover.

I don't think neither Hugo nor I are trying to attack you, it's just you need to distinguish between making concentrated leveraged (margin?) bets in a market that is lifting all boats, vs. trading / investing in a disciplined manner, using a proven strategy, that should create wealth over extended periods of time if executed in a consistent, disciplined, and unemotional manner over very extended periods of time.

Ultimately, though, it is your money, so good luck, and more power to you!


🙂

 

[Azurik]

I'm up quite a bit YTD, so I'm good. Used today to increase my position in INTC.

Hello from Salem, NH - we're next door neighbors 🙂

I have the same sentiment as everyone else. While it's good you're positive YTD, so is almost everyone else. The stock market had an extremely strong 1st quarter. I think what we're trying to warn is, eventually the fundamentals of stocks will be realigned, and any stock that was over-valued will go down... or... ALL stocks will go down in a bad market.

What is your risk criteria? How do you base the value of the companies?

 

[lothar]

Hello from Salem, NH - we're next door neighbors 🙂

I have the same sentiment as everyone else. While it's good you're positive YTD, so is almost everyone else. The stock market had an extremely strong 1st quarter. I think what we're trying to warn is, eventually the fundamentals of stocks will be realigned, and any stock that was over-valued will go down... or... ALL stocks will go down in a bad market.

What is your risk criteria? How do you base the value of the companies?

Don't waste your time.
He simply jumps from AMD, NVDA, AMZN, EA, to whatever the hottest flavor of the month fad stock is.
Read his post in this thread and last year for evidence.
http://forums.anandtech.com/search.php?searchid=195904

I love how he claims to be long AMD, then a few days later after the stock dropped he claims to be shorting it, then claims to be going long again.

I've seen many people with different principles in these threads. That guy seems to have none.
His strategy simply seems to be playing earnings and buying the hottest stock flavor of the day.

"*goes back to strategy of playing earnings and getting out after hours...*" (in cases he attempts to pull a ninja edit)
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=33042238&postcount=672
His investment strategy is right there in that post...The last sentence.

 

[Arachnotronic]

mshan, I don't think you're trying to attack me, since your response was not really hostile or insulting -- I appreciate it.

Azurik -- my strategy is basically this: I follow a number of companies in an industry that I know pretty well from both a technical standpoint and from the standpoint of someone who builds PCs/recommends them to people. So this pretty much narrows my hit list to semiconductors involved in PC stuff.

From there, I take a look at price to earnings ratios, the balance sheet, etc. and I try to determine whether I think the company I'm looking at is over or under priced. I also try to study their chart and see what kinds of factors seem to affect the stock price. For example, I had a lot of success trading AMD in the past year because I had a pretty solid sense of how they react to stuff and I have a lot of faith in their ability to smash the low ball earnings estimates they set (and guess what? they've beaten every quarter that I've played them). I also have a sense of what macro-economic factors affect them, so I try to buy in after really hard dips and sell/short whenever I see a way too abrupt run-up.

In fact, contrary to lothar's statement, I usually buy the stocks that are BEATEN UP. Whenever people declare the death of PC gaming, discrete graphics, the PC, how tablets will rule them all, etc. I usually get some nice dips on my PC component stocks. I buy things that everyone else is thinking is going to die for, what I feel, are irrational reasons.

I generally don't like PE's that are high. I generally don't like too much debt. I generally don't like stocks that miss earnings a lot. But whatever, man. I never came here to attack anybody, and I don't at all mind calm/non-aggressive posts like mshan's.

I might not have a disciplined strategy, but here are a number of the trades I've done in the past 6 or so months:

BUY AMD @ $8.02 ( Their P/E is still quite low, their graphics tech is very strong, their CPU stuff is getting better, and I think with Fusion, they'll make a strong name for themselves with the APUs. Also, they seem to be making strides in the server market, but I think it'll be a little while before they'll claw away Intel's share there).

BUY AMD @ $5.00 avg cost - SELL @ $6.73
SHORT AMD @

BUY OCZ @ 6.83 - SELL @ 7.24 (I just put in these limit orders, and miraculously they both filled within 10 mins of each other the other day. )

BUY INTC @ 19 - SELL @ 24.50 (I just wanted to take some profits...mistake)
BUY INTC @ 27.80 (planning on just holding because it's just...at an 11 P/E, killer earnings growth, and strong product

BUY NVDA @ $14.385 (avg) - SELL @ 15.20 <---- Bought post Kepler launch
BUY NVDA @ $15.5 (avg) - SELL @ 16.47 <---- Bought @ 16 pre earnings, added to position by buying @ $15 in an after market dip, and then selling during a crazy run up the next day.

BUY BAC @ 6.20 - SELL @ 5.85 ( this was more like a gamble that I just didn't have the stomach for...)

BUY AMZN @ $176 - SELL @ 193 (near a 52 week low, solid company with aggressive management -- definitely worth a risk near the 52wk low)

BUY AEP @ 38.11 (planning on just holding for the nice dividend & nice dividend -- bought it on a dip)

BUY MRVL @ $15.40 - SELL @ $14.90 (needed to free up the capital for another opportunity)

BUY EA @ $17.11 (avg) - SELL @ $17.40 (again, wanted to free up capital)

BUY AMAT @ $12.24 (avg) - SELL @ $12.39
BUY MU @ 7.99 (I think there's a lot of long term upside here, but it's a solid risk, too)

 

[lothar]

mshan, I don't think you're trying to attack me, since your response was not really hostile or insulting -- I appreciate it.

Azurik -- my strategy is basically this: I follow a number of companies in an industry that I know pretty well from both a technical standpoint and from the standpoint of someone who builds PCs/recommends them to people. So this pretty much narrows my hit list to semiconductors involved in PC stuff.

From there, I take a look at price to earnings ratios, the balance sheet, etc. and I try to determine whether I think the company I'm looking at is over or under priced. I also try to study their chart and see what kinds of factors seem to affect the stock price. For example, I had a lot of success trading AMD in the past year because I had a pretty solid sense of how they react to stuff and I have a lot of faith in their ability to smash the low ball earnings estimates they set (and guess what? they've beaten every quarter that I've played them). I also have a sense of what macro-economic factors affect them, so I try to buy in after really hard dips and sell/short whenever I see a way too abrupt run-up.

I might not have a disciplined strategy, but here are a number of the trades I've done in the past 6 or so months:

BUY AMD @ $8.02 ( Their P/E is still quite low, their graphics tech is very strong, their CPU stuff is getting better, and I think with Fusion, they'll make a strong name for themselves with the APUs. Also, they seem to be making strides in the server market, but I think it'll be a little while before they'll claw away Intel's share there).

BUY OCZ @ 6.83 - SELL @ 7.24 (I just put in these limit orders, and miraculously they both filled within 10 mins of each other the other day. )

BUY INTC @ 19 - SELL @ 24.50 (I just wanted to take some profits...mistake)
BUY INTC @ 27.80 (planning on just holding because it's just...at an 11 P/E, killer earnings growth, and strong product

BUY NVDA @ $14.385 (avg) - SELL @ 15.20 <---- Bought post Kepler launch
BUY NVDA @ $15.5 (avg) - SELL @ 16.47 <---- Bought @ 16 pre earnings, added to position by buying @ $15 in an after market dip, and then selling during a crazy run up the next day.

BUY BAC @ 6.20 - SELL @ 5.85 ( this was more like a gamble that I just didn't have the stomach for...)

BUY AMZN @ $176 - SELL @ 193 (near a 52 week low, solid company with aggressive management -- definitely worth a risk near the 52wk low)

BUY AEP @ 38.11 (planning on just holding for the nice dividend & nice dividend -- bought it on a dip)

That's a lot different from the strategy you claimed to be doing in your earlier post.
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=33042238&postcount=672

Wanna explain that?

 

[Arachnotronic]

Sure. That's when I was holding:

EA, MRVL, AMZN, and AMAT.

I sold MRVL at a loss so that I could move the capital into averaging down into AMAT (since AMAT had the dividend, it was the safest to try this strategy with). When EA and AMZN became profitable (since AMZN and EA were super close to 52 week lows, I saw some upside), I sold them, too. Moved the EA capital into AMAT. Held onto AMAT until very recently when, at the shareholder meeting, they announced that they weren't going to meet analyst's expectation -- so I got out as fast as I could, but I had woken up that day, so that was at $12.39. I had held it even as it was flying high @ $12.90, but didn't take the profits since I had more faith in it due to low P/E, share buybacks, and strong semiconductor equipment sales/focus.

AMAT also had a really good earnings. I bought them at $12.82 at first, and when their earnings came, they hit $14+ after hours. It broke my heart to see them basically slowly die in the weeks following. NOT following my original strategy f*cked me pretty big time.

I moved AMAT capital into AEP and INTC, both of which have crazy low P/E's, pay nice dividends, and are comfortable to hold. AEP has a lot of debt, but I figure that since they're a utility, that's to be expected. I picked AEP because my dad has been holding them for years and they've done him well -- and my research confirmed that it was a solid stock. Intel, to me, is CRAZY under priced. Look at the P/E's and cash of its competitors like ARM, QCOM, TXN, etc. It's a shining star and still crazy under priced. I will hold it until the mid $30's unless something goes wrong.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Nice buying opportunity...

So, we're down because people are afraid there won't be any more stimulus apparently. That's been pretty open knowledge for a while given the hueg deficit and debt. Back up tomorrow?

I definitely think so. Two days of this violent downward trend for no real fundamental reason is ripe for a correction upward.

Looking to get into NVDA again. I've got a limit order set for $14.40 and hoping it'll hit pre-market. If they can get a 28nm Tegra 4 out the door to keep up with the Qualcomm Snapdragon & Cortex A15, as well as significantly beef up their graphics portion so that it's a significant advantage (for whatever reason, Tegra 3 seems to lack a lot of the current SoC graphics), then I think they could get a lot of design wins there. Looking ahead, "Big Kepler" will hit later this year and make its way into the lucrative "Quadro" and "Tesla" lineup, which should improve margins. If NVIDIA plays it right, they could be a $20 stock by the end of the year, but I think this next earnings report will be the sort of critical inflection point that will show investors if they can "walk the walk". I think they'll be able to, so that's why I want in at these levels.

Oh, and if Project Denver is close...that could be a game changer. Although I hold AMD as my "APU" bet.

 

[lothar]

What we want to know is:
1.) Why do you keep coming up with all these flavor of the week stocks? It's like you come up with something new every few days. Other times, you come in with something new and ask "anyone playing on their earnings?" We want to see a consistent strategy, not flavor of the day or week stocks. If you like RIMM, buy it; and if you like AAPL, buy it. We don't understand your jumping around ship every few days to play on "earnings". You don't need to post evidence using trade numbers and such. We just want to understand what the heck you're doing.

2.) Why does your portfolio have so much turnover?

3.) Day trading is a losing game unless you work for a hedgefund or investment bank and have access to high frequency trading(which you don't and neither do I). That is a fact. The only people that benefit from day trading are the stock brokers and the government.

4.) When the DOW goes up by 50 points you jump up and down, but when the DOW drops by -80 to -100 points you scream "bloodbath". What's up with that?
That's being overly melodramatic. This is something only my mom does when she sees the DOW scrolling ticker on CNN or whatever evening news channel she's watching at the time. She doesn't know anything about the stock market and simply just lets me manage her portfolio.

 

[Arachnotronic]

1. Every time I see a stock that I like get hit, I usually go in and buy it -- that's it. My "flavor of the week" is really "hey, what stock that has a solid company behind it just got hit hugely for no real reason"? Generally it's semiconductors, since I know them well. I follow all the news, rumors, etc. I talk to people to get their impressions, I myself build lots of PCs for people commercially as a side-job.

2. Because I'm very loss-averse. If I see a 6% gain, I'm going to take it unless I think the stock is still crazy, grossly undervalued. I'm more than willing to ride things out for months (I sat on a 10+% loss on AMD for many, many months until it turned around in Jan/Feb), but if I'm making a solid percentage on my capital, why shouldn't I grab my profits?

3. I'm not a day-trader. The only times I do round-trip trades are when my limit orders fill in the same day or if there's a REALLY crazy run up.

4. Every dollar counts. My AMD purchase was down 4% or so intra-day -- that's not something that I particularly like to see. Sure, it's not as bad as that time, over a year ago, I bought MIPS and then I saw it lose 33% the next day, but it still kind of sucks.

 

[zimu]

why is everyone interrogating intel17?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

FYI, Its (RIMM) going down, I hope you bought more!

I'm keeping an eye on it. If it gets to below $12, I'll buy more. Happily buying in small pieces. I think I last bought in the mid $13s. Unless it nears $10, there is no real reason to DCA.

I love finding a financially rock solid comapanies that people are overly pessimistic about. And then short the heck out of. That's how opportunity is created.

Sounds alot like USG. Remember when housing was dead?

Just so you sleep well at night, I'm up about 15-20% overall this year. I currently own GE and RIMM. The other 80% is cash.

Trust me, I sleep well. I love watching short interest grow in a stock as the company is doing fairly well. $2 FCF every year. Short term assets minus current liabilities is $3.5B. $8B market cap. I don't mind having just under 10% of my capital in this stock.

PS: This is a cigar butt investment. It's not for everyone. Buffett did this in his early days. Seth Klarman is doing this type of investing right now. It's not for everyone. Some do "latest fad" investing. To each there own. Pick somethign that works and mimic it.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

why is everyone interrogating intel17?

Hey, let them. I need the break ;-)

 

[Arachnotronic]

INTC seems to have a solid support at the $27.93 level.

 

[Imp]

Edging more in slightly... I've been buying crap that didn't follow the 20-30% rally, or followed it, then flopped. Maybe market's saying something, but oh well, solid companies.

 

[Arachnotronic]

All in. Time to sit back and watch...