***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[Arachnotronic]

Parked about a third of my capital in American Electric power the other day. Reeeealllly diggin' that yield.

 

[PimpJuice]

Wow, another article written in the US. should I click the link or assume it is negative?

I did buy more, a while ago. Bought some Jan 2014 calls at the 8 strike to dolalr cost average. Probably up 25% on those right now.

As for your confidence comment. I've already said it once. There is a chance that RIMM will not rebound. Valuation wise however, it is cheap. I think there is a good chance that RIMM could go up greatly. Alot of this hinges on BB10.

And it's up 7% today.

Some top level shake up have occured. Some wanted by many. Some unexpected. If BB10 is released late or early, I will care. Otherwise articles will continue to talk of the end. It only gets interesting if you care to actually read about RIMM and what it's market position is. Things I ahve already said. So stop reading other people's opinions (WSJ) and start doing some research. This happens all the time. I come in after reading data. And everyone counters me with what I could have gained by reading the latest news articles.

The last time we had this conversation, you said you did a measly 3 hours of research and were all aboard the RIM train, so don't come in here acting like you're the only one who "researches".

Stop reading other peoples opinions? How about their CEOs opinion? Should I stop reading that too? He just admitted that he's considering selling the company. You still cant see the writing on the wall, which only embarrasses you.

I'm happy to see your optimism from only 2-3 months ago has wavered ten fold when you were talking crap about me not knowing what HTML5 was or who Prem Watsa is.

Here you go:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304177104577313972922564072.html

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Pimpjuice,

You are an idiot. I think I can't say it more clearly.

Stop countering everything with articles. Go do some actual fact checking of these articles. That's what I did. And that's why I am optimistic. The articles are typically riddled with no new news and/or gross inaccuracies. If I thoguht I made a mistake, I wouldn't have bought more calls at hte recent bottom.

Hint: Since you know so much, you know that the CEOs comment about selling is old news. But you do more than read articles and do independent research ... I guess.

PS: A CEO that is transparent is a good thing. It's when they lie and/or don't publicly acknowledge their problems that one should worry. And thanks for telling me about this news that selling RIMM is a possibility. You just caught up to statements made 2 months ago.

 

[chusteczka]

I only have a casual understanding of RIM and its situation. With that in mind, here are my thoughts.

RIM is at bottom, or near bottom. They have purchased a new operating system and are developing it for new products. Product development takes time if done properly. Later this year or early next year, they can be expected to start discussing the introduction of their new products. They have had solid products in the past, based on old technology. They now own an operating system and can be expected to create new products with it.

I figure that a purchase of their stock now can only get better. It is typically best to buy low and sell high. RIM is low now and most people dislike them. Earnings statements now mean nothing. Of course their current earnings are minor. They currently only have old and forgotten products available.

Their future products have high expectations by a few willing to see the work they are putting into development. Their stock price will only improve once they release their new products. It is a waiting game but one in which good results can be expected.

I suppose the market may not like their new products but I think we will be surprised with their novelty.

I like a company willing to take its time in product development and look forward to watching RIMM's stock price improve in the next couple years.

 

[Imp]

My concern is what could RIM possibly produce that could spur interest and excitement?

Playbook OS just came out a month ago. Newsflash: a day or two of headlines and people have gone back to not giving a shit. Sales still suck and the Playbook is still firesale-priced and about a year old now.

And now the CEO says they're focusing back on the business side of things, so they're up against CSCO, MSFT, HP, or Dell - all of which could buy them out easily. I guess they could pull an Apple and come out with something no one's ever thought of, but that's thinking pretty longterm. Can they survive that long?

 

[chusteczka]

Their Playbook OS is not developed on QNX. QNX is RIM's future. The Playbook is the past. Therefore, Playbook's failure is expected and of no importance.

Your question asking if they can survive is a good one. RIM could have closed its doors but they have investors willing to gamble on QNX. QNX seems to have legacy code that needs to be updated before the "Blackpad" tablet can be reliably developed and released.

It is possible the current investors behind the decision to purchase QNX are reconsidering their decisions and evaluating the concept of a sunk cost.

The statement in the above Wall Street Journal article that RIM's CEO is willing to sell the company shows the investors feel they have gotten in over their heads with the dual task of repairing QNX legacy code and developing the Blackpad tablet. Thus indicating the investors may be looking for an easy way out of their mess.

We are on the outside trying to figure out what the investors are apparently unable to handle on their own. Maybe the investors are hoping a larger company can do more with QNX than they are able to.

That was a good question that got me thinking more than I had previously. I think they can recover. I think the investors consideration for selling shows the legacy code is a bigger problem than originally expected. With time, money, and desire to fix the code; QNX may be developed into a solid asset.

QNX is an asset sold for other products. I like the micro-kernel aspect of QNX and the system itself. However, it seems the current owners are not as willing to invest more into it as they were previously willing to do.

It is impossible for us to figure out how this will unfold but it does look bad.

 

[zimu]

Their Playbook OS is not developed on QNX. QNX is RIM's future. The Playbook is the past. Therefore, Playbook's failure is expected and of no importance.

Your question asking if they can survive is a good one. RIM could have closed its doors but they have investors willing to gamble on QNX. QNX seems to have legacy code that needs to be updated before the "Blackpad" tablet can be reliably developed and released.

It is possible the current investors behind the decision to purchase QNX are reconsidering their decisions and evaluating the concept of a sunk cost.

The statement in the above Wall Street Journal article that RIM's CEO is willing to sell the company shows the investors feel they have gotten in over their heads with the dual task of repairing QNX legacy code and developing the Blackpad tablet. Thus indicating the investors may be looking for an easy way out of their mess.

We are on the outside trying to figure out what the investors are apparently unable to handle on their own. Maybe the investors are hoping a larger company can do more with QNX than they are able to.

That was a good question that got me thinking more than I had previously. I think they can recover. I think the investors consideration for selling shows the legacy code is a bigger problem than originally expected. With time, money, and desire to fix the code; QNX may be developed into a solid asset.

QNX is an asset sold for other products. I like the micro-kernel aspect of QNX and the system itself. However, it seems the current owners are not as willing to invest more into it as they were previously willing to do.

It is impossible for us to figure out how this will unfold but it does look bad.

remember palm with their new OS? It was amazing. But nobody gave a crap. quite sure QNX will go the same way. this coming from someone who had shares in RIM and am HOPING they pull through, but a large part of me doubts they'll put a rabbit out the hat.

 

[jpiniero]

RIM's market share is only going to continue to fall really.

It sure looks like a good time to sell the company or liquidate it if they can't find a buyer. Whether they can get enough is another story. Sure, they could stick around and bleed to death, but why do that?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Wow, some useful discussion!

I'll chime in on a few things mentioned above.

market share:
RIM is loosing market share. This means as a percentage, they are selling less than others over time. What this does not mean: That RIM is not growing. RIM is actually growing. Services, subscribers, everything is growing.

Playbook QNX:
The Playbook is based on the QNX OS. The OS 2.0 release is very similar to what BB10 will be. Developers that develop for that will have a huge head start.

MISC:
RIM had a problem with many things. Among them is internal processes. That's why things are delayed so much. Playbook 2.0 was a year late. The smartphone market is another issue. There are many problems. The thing is, RIM is acknowledging these things. Internal processes are being fixed. BB10 is suppose to come out in the second half of this year. If it does not, I will strongly consider walking since that is evidence of a failed process. If it makes it on time or early, I will be glad that the internal processes might be fixed.

Services:
RIMs services (e-mail, etc) now work with Droid and iOS. This is fairly new. Just a sign that they recognize that they are not the only player. Better than a head in the sand.

My concern is what could RIM possibly produce that could spur interest and excitement?

RIM intends on stealing a page out of Apple's playbook. They intend to make stylish products going forward. Part of this is RIMs current search for a marketing head. They recently said they are close and expect to hire someone new. Don't expect a huge advertising push till BB10 comes.

Sale of RIM
Contrary to what others think based on recent articles. This is old news. One of the first things the new CEO stated was that they are not actively seeking a sale but it is not something they would not entertain.

I guess they could pull an Apple and come out with something no one's ever thought of, but that's thinking pretty longterm. Can they survive that long?

try to sell an OS with a plain 2D grey keyboard or sell them something at looks nice? That will be BB10. Consumers want BS like that. Just an example.
As for long term survival. I can not say it enough. After skimming the financial reports all I could think is that these negative articles can not be talking about RIM. It doesn't even take 5 minutes of skimming to realize this. All I could think of is why do people think this company is dieing? I decided to seek the answer to that. There must be merit behinf the articles. And I could not find it. I could only find reasons why it is not dieing. Back to the numbers. No debt and generating $2 billion in FCF. Total equity has grown and grown and grown, even now. They have time. Plenty of it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_mentality

Back to basketball...

 

[Imp]

Wow, some useful discussion!

I'll chime in on a few things mentioned above.

market share:
RIM is loosing market share. This means as a percentage, they are selling less than others over time. What this does not mean: That RIM is not growing. RIM is actually growing. Services, subscribers, everything is growing.

If I recall correctly (from many quarters ago), they were selling something like 15 million phones per quarter; latest one they sold 11 million?

As for style, I think it can only take you so far. I know some people with very stylish phones... they're probably the only ones with them. Motorola seems to have some stylish things too. Then you look at some Android phones and the iPhone and realize that they're just squares with a home button and a brushed-metal rear plate. But the iPhones have that one important thing: the logo.

So, I'm thinking that marketing is probably a bigger challenge, although you do need a reasonably good product with no major apparent flaws to peddle properly.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I am in final four beer mode so be warned ...

Smartphone shipments are down to 11.1 million units from 14.1 in the last quarter.
Playbook shipments went from 150,000 to 500,000 in the last quarter.
Revenues are down 19% Q4 vs Q3.
Revenues are down 25% vs the same quarter last year.
Subscribers 75 million to 77 million in Q3 vs Q4 ... so up slightly. (EDIT: fxed this, had it backwards)

Gleaned from this:
So, more subscribers, unit sales dropping....

Hypothesis:
People know BB10 is coming. Unit shipments need to be taken with a grain of salt. Some people could be just waiting for BB10. They will stay with BB(moving to BB10) or move onto Android or iOS. BB10 is 6 months away. There is no reason to upgrade now. EDIT: deleted some stuff as I trailed off topic.

Style:
For style, I think in extremes. What if Windows 7 looked like Windows 3.11. Even if everything under the hood were Windows 7. It probably would not do well. Due to this, I think style is huge. I view style as the shell and the OS experience.

personal items I own:
The iOS UI is huge. I see people use the keyboard. Even on the iPad (I own it) I am surprised by how accurate the damn thing is with know what key you pressed without tactile feedback. I have a Droid 3 for a phone with slide out keyboard. I love the keyboard. But on the occasion that i use the touchscreen to type, it is pretty good. The slide out though, I can type touch on the damned thing without looking. I do have an iPod. I didn't like the digital keyboard that much.

Marketing:
Marketing is huge. I agree 100% there. The advertising better be astounding when BB10 comes. It will be what makes or breaks BB10 in the US.

Licensing:
This is more rumor than anything else. I think RIMM has alluded to some talks on it (Samsung specifically). RIMM might license out the BB10 OS much like how Droid is licensed. It makes some sense.

Rumorville:
BB10 will be 100% touchscreen. A follow up with slide out keybaord will come next.

Fact:
RIMM has acknowledged the need to fill the need of various price points. They know this is an issue and that lower priced products are required for developing nations. just something to be aware of. As for BB10 pricing, I hink they recently said that BB10 will not be priced as high as the current iPhone. But not free either. So, mid tier somewhere.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

PS: no one talks about Apple iPhone sales for some reason:

Q1_2011: 16m
Q2_2011: 18.6m
Q3_2011: 20.3m
Q4_2011: 17.1m
Q1_2012: 37m

No Apple is dieing articles in Q4 2011, huh? Go figure. Back on topic from my previous post. Point is, people will wait 1-2 quarters to get the new version as evidenced by Apple sales. Right now, RIMMs sales are lacking meaning.

Going forward, keep asking questions. I am having fun looking this stuff up.

 

[lothar]

The last time we had this conversation, you said you did a measly 3 hours of research and were all aboard the RIM train, so don't come in here acting like you're the only one who "researches".

Stop reading other peoples opinions? How about their CEOs opinion? Should I stop reading that too? He just admitted that he's considering selling the company. You still cant see the writing on the wall, which only embarrasses you.

I'm happy to see your optimism from only 2-3 months ago has wavered ten fold when you were talking crap about me not knowing what HTML5 was or who Prem Watsa is.

Here you go:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304177104577313972922564072.html

Why is "thinking" about selling the company such a bad thing? 😵
People are acting like it's some kind of abomination or something.

When Warren Buffett entertained about selling his company for $700-800 Billion 4-5 years ago when his company was worth $160-180 Billion at the time, why weren't people calling for his head?
I didn't see people calling for Sanjay Jha and Carl Icahn's head when they sold Motorola to Google for $40/share.

If people are looking for companies that will never consider selling themselves under any circumstances, they can buy Yahoo stock I guess...

 

[PimpJuice]

Hint: Since you know so much, you know that the CEOs comment about selling is old news. But you do more than read articles and do independent research ... I guess.

PS: A CEO that is transparent is a good thing. It's when they lie and/or don't publicly acknowledge their problems that one should worry. And thanks for telling me about this news that selling RIMM is a possibility. You just caught up to statements made 2 months ago.

Its not old news, he just stated this on FRIDAY. It might have been a rumor before (that you never mentioned), but this is straight from the horses mouth.

I don't know what other research you're talking about but when I hear stuff like this directly from the CEO, it tells me the writing is on the wall and they have no clue on how to right the ship.

Your generalizations are old and tired. Get a clue dude.

 

[PimpJuice]

PS: no one talks about Apple iPhone sales for some reason:

Q1_2011: 16m
Q2_2011: 18.6m
Q3_2011: 20.3m
Q4_2011: 17.1m
Q1_2012: 37m

No Apple is dieing articles in Q4 2011, huh? Go figure. Back on topic from my previous post. Point is, people will wait 1-2 quarters to get the new version as evidenced by Apple sales. Right now, RIMMs sales are lacking meaning.

Going forward, keep asking questions. I am having fun looking this stuff up.

Q4 2011 was about a 1.5% drop in sales....and if you don't understand why it dropped, then you should do more "research". Its because they were waiting for the new phone to be released. RIM does not have a measly 1.5% drop in sales.....when AAPLs sales drop as much as RIMs, then you'll see the articles you're wondering about.

 

[PimpJuice]

Why is "thinking" about selling the company such a bad thing? 😵
People are acting like it's some kind of abomination or something.

When Warren Buffett entertained about selling his company for $700-800 Billion 4-5 years ago when his company was worth $160-180 Billion at the time, why weren't people calling for his head?
I didn't see people calling for Sanjay Jha and Carl Icahn's head when they sold Motorola to Google for $40/share.

If people are looking for companies that will never consider selling themselves under any circumstances, they can buy Yahoo stock I guess...

You're right, but I believe RIM is considering selling because they don't forsee themselves selling for higher than they're worth right now. Why would the CEO consider selling now if he can sell it for more later? Its because he feels that it wont be worth as much as it is now.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Its not old news, he just stated this on FRIDAY. It might have been a rumor before (that you never mentioned), but this is straight from the horses mouth.

*Shakes head*

You are convinced you know. I give up.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

You're right, but I believe RIM is considering selling because they don't forsee themselves selling for higher than they're worth right now. Why would the CEO consider selling now if he can sell it for more later? Its because he feels that it wont be worth as much as it is now.

The CEO simply said that if someone comes to him with an offer, he would not automatically reject it. What is so strange about this?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Q4 2011 was about a 1.5% drop in sales....and if you don't understand why it dropped, then you should do more "research". Its because they were waiting for the new phone to be released. RIM does not have a measly 1.5% drop in sales.....when AAPLs sales drop as much as RIMs, then you'll see the articles you're wondering about.

Did you even read what I said? Are you drunk or stupid?

 

[coloumb]

To me - RIMM seems like they are on shaky ground. If I had a large sum of money to invest - I'd treat it the same as buying lottery tickets or betting at the local race track.

 

[chusteczka]

This brings up a good point. Investing should never be similar to gambling. If a person is going to purchase stocks, then the direction of the company and expected results should be known beforehand.

We should be looking to reduce our investment risk, not increase it.

 

[Imp]

To me - RIMM seems like they are on shaky ground. If I had a large sum of money to invest - I'd treat it the same as buying lottery tickets or betting at the local race track.

Except simple gambling is random and shouldn't depend on anyone's performance/ability. I like to keep gambling to "fuc*, I hope it lands on black", or "f*ck I hope I got the 5 numbers right".

When it becomes "mother f*cker, I hope that CEO fired the shitheads, hired some great people, greased the right wheels, the engineers made something excellent, the focus groups were right, beta testers caught the important stuff, AND the reviewers like it, the press is good, the people love it, the people tell their friends they like it, someone important likes it, the marketers got the right campaign going, competition doesn't shit on it, competition doesn't make anything way better"... That's not gambling anymore. Or is it..?

 

[darkxshade]

Except simple gambling is random and shouldn't depend on anyone's performance/ability. I like to keep gambling to "fuc*, I hope it lands on black", or "f*ck I hope I got the 5 numbers right".

When it becomes "mother f*cker, I hope that CEO fired the shitheads, hired some great people, greased the right wheels, the engineers made something excellent, the focus groups were right, beta testers caught the important stuff, AND the reviewers like it, the press is good, the people love it, the people tell their friends they like it, someone important likes it, the marketers got the right campaign going, competition doesn't shit on it, competition doesn't make anything way better"... That's not gambling anymore. Or is it..?

You gamble in a casino, you "speculate" in the stock market 😉

 

[JTsyo]

Except simple gambling is random and shouldn't depend on anyone's performance/ability. I like to keep gambling to "fuc*, I hope it lands on black", or "f*ck I hope I got the 5 numbers right".

When it becomes "mother f*cker, I hope that CEO fired the shitheads, hired some great people, greased the right wheels, the engineers made something excellent, the focus groups were right, beta testers caught the important stuff, AND the reviewers like it, the press is good, the people love it, the people tell their friends they like it, someone important likes it, the marketers got the right campaign going, competition doesn't shit on it, competition doesn't make anything way better"... That's not gambling anymore. Or is it..?

I see you don't bet on sports. :whiste:

 

[Azurik]

The unfortunate story regarding RIMM is that it was almost a monopoly in the business market and had a ton of fans in the consumer division. They slept through their rising profits and the iPhone and Android systems came in and quickly gained steam... it's almost a identical story with Windows Mobile. I love my WinMo to death, but they didn't fix issues and enhance the user experience enough. Consumers were the first to go and businesses jumped ship to Blackberry.