***Official*** 2012 Stock Market Thread

[IHateMyJob2004]

EDITED (was to verbose):

1) world market share of smart phones
Why not find current market share info and contribute data to the discussion. In a debate you need to know something. I might be right. I might be wrong. But you are blissfully ignorant. Contribute something other than Pulp Fiction pictures.

2) What would it take for people to learn about RIMM?
You say "WTF does that mean?". I am baffled. There is only one appropriate response. "English motherfucker, do you speak it?"

3) Support for iOS or Droid based apps?
You say "WTF does that mean?" I say, that I could care less to tell you. As an Apple investor, you know what the competition is up to, right?

 

[Pliablemoose]

Thank you for that. I remember the news but did not realize the significance at the time.

I suppose the poor apps and developer support is where the web with HTML 5 may prove an advantage. Now I am understanding more of the situation and of this conversation you guys are having.

1. Does the fact that QNX is a RTOS provide any advantages on a smart phone or a tablet?
2. Or is it merely a different and unique operating system for marketing purposes?
3. Why would they purchase QNX when they could create their own linux distro?

I do not see or understand a need for a RTOS on a smart phone or tablet but then I do not use or own either of them.

:hmm:

interest in RIM, asking bizarre questions, similar posting style...

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

QNX could benefit as devices get more and more cores. The OS is architected to use many cores efficiently. I wouldn't get hung up on the RTOS aspect too much as an investor. Just know they have an OS going forward. The QNX questions are interesting. Read more about it. RIMM does more than tablets and smart phones;-) never realized RIMM is entering other markets because of the QNX acquisition. Another avenue to explore.

The next software release for the playbook is around the corner in February .... and some of the issues like e-mail will be resolved.

The "very few apps" thing is getting resolved soon. Not sure if that is a February fix but it is an issue that should be resolved in 2012.

Time for bed.

chusteczka,
You have some interesting questions. It's nice having someone around that wants to learn to research. Let's continue this discussion tomorrow. I have to get to bed.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

...

 

[lothar]

:hmm:

interest in RIM, asking bizarre questions, similar posting style...

 

[lothar]

This thread needs moderation. Badly.

Absolutely not.
That's been one of the benefits of the stock market threads the past 5+ years.
The Mods/Admins have always kept out of it.






As for the fight between Pliablemoose and IHateMyJob2004, I'm not getting involved.
As for RIMM...I've already said what I wanted to say earlier in the thread...Do a search for it in this thread.

I'm skeptical about RIMM's future.
A lot of their profits are now from emerging markets and they essentially have to give their phones for free through rebate subsidization in the US. Once Apple and Google expand to emerging markets, where will RIMM run too? Once the corporate blowhards drop RIMM and adopt WP7, iOS, and Android; what will be left for RIMM?

I am of the opinion that there's only room for 3 'OS in the smartphone market.
Google won't be going anywhere anytime soon.
Neither will Apple.
The fight for distant 3rd place will be between Microsoft's WP7/? and RIMM's BBX(BB10?).

Does that mean there's no value in RIMM stock? I have no idea...But at some point I'd expect them to get bought out by Microsoft. Samsung or HTC buying them out? That's one of the most stupid things I've ever heard.

As for Prem Watsa, I've followed him in many stocks(JNJ, CRESY, MHK, KFT, ICO, and SD) over the years.
However, I'm not following him on RIMM.....At least not yet.

 

[chusteczka]

:hmm:

interest in RIM, asking bizarre questions, similar posting style...

I have not paid any attention to all the issues concerning cell phones and tablets since I do not have need for them. Really, it was all the drama you guys are creating that caught my attention. Then I became intrigued when I saw their stock price is below book value.

Imagine this, all the cell phone marketing for the last 11 years, including Apple's marketing machine, has had no effect on gaining my interest. But the argument and drama between the two of you has piqued my curiousity.

My questions above are genuine. Why QNX? What benefit does a RTOS provide a smart phone or tablet? Do these questions have an obvious answer that I am missing?

I liked the blackberry when it came out several years back but never needed one and left the corporate world a few years ago so have not given it much thought.

RIM appears not interested in duplicating the apps already made, by making their system compatible with Android/Linux. That can be a good move.

But ... no email, no calendar, no apps, and no developer community.

This does not make sense to me. What are they planning to do with their RTOS once they achieve linux compatibility?

I do not agree to just set that issue aside since they purchased a RTOS instead of building their own linux distro for a reason. At least I hope they had a reason. It is a crazy move. Linux has an established developer community. Are they nuts or are they going to bluetooth enable their products and link them with embedded controllers?

I do not get it. Maybe they had too much money burning holes in their pockets, since it has already been established (I think) that some of the executive officers have been ineffective and were replaced.

 

[manly]

chusteczka,

honestly the OS kernel doesn't matter here w.r.t. app developers. iOS has a Darwin (Unix) kernel but the developer APIs are at a higher level. Likewise with Android where the Linux kernel is immaterial when development is done in Java. Which is why BB10 can be jury-rigged to run Android apps.

Still a good question about why QNX and I don't have an answer. Unfortunately many tech companies exhibit Not invented here syndrome which predisposes them to reinvent the wheel instead of adopting a ready-made solution. At least in this respect, Nokia's all-in move with Windows Phone may be a smart decision.

I agree strongly with lothar that there's room for 3 players with deep pockets, and no more. Analysts are bullish on Windows Phone, but as lothar said, they might be fighting for Android and iOS's table scraps.

 

[goog40]

EDITED (was to verbose):

1) world market share of smart phones
Why not find current market share info and contribute data to the discussion. In a debate you need to know something. I might be right. I might be wrong. But you are blissfully ignorant. Contribute something other than Pulp Fiction pictures.

Your 40% market share claim is ludicrous. Anyone who has paid any attention at all to the mobile industry in the past year would know that claim is complete bullshit without looking up the actual numbers. At no point in the last five years have they had anywhere near that percentage (at best, they've had half of what you claimed).

Here's a quote from an article posted yesterday:

A new study by English market research firm Jupiter Research shows BlackBerry’s share of the world smartphone market fell to 10 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011, down from 15 per cent a year earlier. That’s well back of market leaders Apple (25 per cent) and second-place Samsung (21.7 per cent). It’s still behind third-place Nokia, but if present trends continue, that could change.

Here's a nice visualization of the operating profits of the 8 major mobile vendors:

It's outdated, but an updated chart would show AAPL taking an even more massive chunk of the profits (iPhone sales up over 80% since Q2 2011), with RIM's slice getting even smaller. I believe this chart includes profits from all phones, not just smartphones.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Not to change the subject or anything, any thoughts on Amazon?

Reports today, should have some good numbers...

 

[The-Noid]

Not to change the subject or anything, any thoughts on Amazon?

Reports today, should have some good numbers...

...

 

[rcpratt]

Guess I should have gotten back in on F at $12.

 

[Imp]

Not to change the subject or anything, any thoughts on Amazon?

Reports today, should have some good numbers...

P/E = 100

VAST growth expected. I understand how big they've become, their huge supply networks, the move to electronic retailing, etc., but no thank you.

Market essentially flat again today. Sigh...

 

[PimpJuice]

<== 11+ years as a softwre engineer. Embedded systems. Now I do IT work. Relax, I do silly things like porting one CAD system to another one. Only in the past year have I started to tinker with web development.

But I have to ask, what is your point? Investment does not require one to know HTML inside and out. A top level overview is all that is needed. Has all your knowledge of HTML 5 told you anything about the new companies that are springing up to try to create an HTML 5 app sales front? 14 years doing tech should have tought you the next 5 years has nothing to do with the past 5 years. But you seem to be ignorant of that simple truth. And you want to be ignorant of it. That's fine. It's just not me.

My point?? You're the one that brought up HTML. You're really dense.

You just spew assumptions that you know more than everyone here just because you did a couple of hours of research and throw around some buzzwords and names of sucessfully investors.

 

[PimpJuice]

edited (was to verbose):

1) world market share of smart phones
why not find current market share info and contribute data to the discussion. In a debate you need to know something. I might be right. I might be wrong. But you are blissfully ignorant. Contribute something other than pulp fiction pictures.

you quoted the number and now you are asking others for data??

 

[The-Noid]

TY/1, ZN/1 ath...

 

[Imp]

Okay. I've noticed that for the past week, bluechips have generally been dropping 1-3% at open, and then creeped up at least 1% after 3pm on a daily basis. Anyone have the money and the balls to play this?

I only have one of the two...

 

[The-Noid]

AMZN 178.17/25 @ 4:34, tape is slowing quite a bit.

 

[lothar]

consensus net income of $81.6mm but standard deviation is 60.84mm.

Eps range of $-.26 to .43, i believe their own guidance at the end of last quarter was for a loss of $-200mm to a gain of $250mm.

They tend to have huge surprise either positive or negative.

Amzn is one i have a hard time understanding, more or less because when i am a customer i never understand how they make money.

I ordered an elliptical (252 lbs) and a tread mill (196 lbs) for christmas, $5,000 total order, however the price was about $2,000 less than anywhere else on the net. The order arrived in 2 days via prime (free shipping). The elliptical worked for a week and had a bad motor. They sent another elliptical, this time in one day and took the other one out for me.

This seems to happen a lot, in that items always ship extremely quickly and they care so much about customer service that i fear it hurts their bottom line long term.

Idk, like i said, its hard for me to understand the company because we do much business with them both personally and professionally, that i can never figure out how they make money.

you should get a good rise out of the 'value' investors though, 101.38 ttm p/e, 164x ntm p/e.

P/E 101.13
Forward P/E 102.21
P/B 11.26
P/FCF 57.00 ?????????????????

 

[The-Noid]

P/E 101.13
Forward P/E 102.21
P/B 11.26
P/FCF 57.00 ?????????????????

...

 

[manly]

EDITED (was to verbose):

1) world market share of smart phones
Why not find current market share info and contribute data to the discussion. In a debate you need to know something. I might be right. I might be wrong. But you are blissfully ignorant. Contribute something other than Pulp Fiction pictures.

you quoted the number and now you are asking others for data??

actually I referenced data after he made the original dubious claim and he continued to beat his own drum anyhow. Even after he looked up Android and saw how much share it had seized, he asked us to rebut the RIM 40% claim! Honestly, none of us care that much about others' biases or favorite stocks. What's annoying about IHMJ is his haughty "I know better than everybody here" declarations and associated name-dropping (Buffett or Canucky Buffett said so, so it must be true!). Honestly, since he admits he knows squat about Apple (and has proven as much), I don't much care what he brings to the "debate".

PMoose, one correction. Based on the numbers I'm seeing, smartphones are 25% of the global mobile handset market. More than 10% but that's still a lot of potential growth for any company executing well. Maybe that's why analysts are bullish on Windows Phone?? And as goog40 said, it's not just about share but the profits generated. RIM is losing its CrackBerry cachet and forced to offload lower-margin products anywhere it can move them.

Re: AMZN, I wanted to short them at $250 but missed the boat. Which is ironic because I share The-Noid's sentiments that they are a great customer-focused company, often to the detriment of profit margins. The reason investors have put such a high multiple on the stock is not the legacy business, not even the digital business (Kindle, MP3, etc.), but Amazon Web Services. "The Cloud" is sexy right now, and they've been investing heavily in AWS for a long time and have real customers to boot. Love Amazon the company, but still wouldn't touch the stock.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Applause for goog! He actually did some research on the matter. A+!

Reading more on HTML 5 ..... Example of the future. Why pay mobile companies a 30% fee for selling apps when you can pay them 0%.
http://apps.ft.com/ftwebapp/

 

[JS80]

Applause for goog! He actually did some research on the matter. A+!

Reading more on HTML 5 ..... Example of the future. Why pay mobile companies a 30% fee for selling apps when you can pay them 0%.
http://apps.ft.com/ftwebapp/

yea cuz apple/android won't lock that shit down if it starts to cannibalize sales

 

[SunnyD]

Awesome, just got word that the commission fee on my Sharebuilder account is going down because I'm a Costco member. Yay... :hmm:

 

[mugs]

Awesome, just got word that the commission fee on my Sharebuilder account is going down because I'm a Costco member. Yay... :hmm:

How do you get that? Do you have to open a new account? I already have a Sharebuilder account, would rather not open another.