***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[JS80]

Pretty crazy how Wall St is valuing the non-creme retailers. If you like ARO, then you will like AEO.

 

[SSSnail]

Yuck, should have dumped my QQQ options on Friday, but it never hit my limit price and I guess I was greedy.

That's what killed me in the past, and is killing me now - greed.

Maybe I should follow that philosophy of "no one ever goes broke from profiting".

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Since you seem to be an ARO bull, I'll ask a few questions.

I am seriously looking into ARO, but it's been a pain having to go back, learn a few things, and change a few things in my analysis.

Do you consider operating lease in your valuations?
With some retail companies(ARO is one of them), they lease their locations using off-balance sheet methods for their operating leases and you therefore have to recapitalize them by changing everything so your statistics don't look substantially inflated.

If one doesn't do that, the reported valuations such as EBIT, EV, and Others(because those might be off, any important ratios that depends on those as well such as FCF/EV, P/EV, P/EBIT would be off as well and look really inflated).
Is it worth it to recapitalize them as such or am I the one over thinking it?

I should add that I don't have much experience in valuing and analyzing retail companies. The only retail company I've ever bought was WAG June last year which was a no-brainer for me when CVS Caremark foolishly dumped them.

I feel ARO is worth about $25-27/share.The 300+% rise in cotton prices have knocked down their stock, along with -7% SSS. I'm not too hooked up particularly on SSS numbers because they're just that...Sales, not profits.

The Buckle(BKE) also looks like a good stock to own forever...If the price comes down a bit to the 20's. The numbers from management look fantastic.

ARO looks interesting. Did you adjust FCF any? If so, how? I might have to look into this one. Let me know if you buy in.

Buckle. Ya, high 20s might be reasonable. I skimmed that one (based on gurufocus article) and a quick look at the number made me think it was probably fairly valued. In the 20s, maybe would be a good discount. I really need to read more books on valaution and gotchas regarding valuation. Any suggestions?

AgaBoogaBoo,
To the Lothar and I are a few of the value ivnestors around here. PM me if you want contact info for me.

 

[manlymatt83]

That's what killed me in the past, and is killing me now - greed.

Maybe I should follow that philosophy of "no one ever goes broke from profiting".

Yeah. I ended up getting out before today's big drop, so I guess I'm not that bad off. But better luck next time.

 

[manlymatt83]

JS80: was that drop in QQQ puts Monday and today recovery from option pain?

 

[JS80]

JS80: was that drop in QQQ puts Monday and today recovery from option pain?

I think market is making a reversal due to forecasted certainty coming from Greece. Either that or it's short covering (or both due to Greece stabilization). I sold my QQQ puts before it expired last Friday, and went long yesterday. Just sold out for 100+% gain. I don't think it's worth the risk of further shorting and I'm going for capital preservation since I banked such huge gains from lucky trading the last few weeks.

 

[manlymatt83]

I think market is making a reversal due to forecasted certainty coming from Greece. Either that or it's short covering (or both due to Greece stabilization). I sold my QQQ puts before it expired last Friday, and went long yesterday. Just sold out for 100+% gain. I don't think it's worth the risk of further shorting and I'm going for capital preservation since I banked such huge gains from lucky trading the last few weeks.

Makes sense. So by going for capital preservation, my guess is you're avoiding options entirely now?

Do you play the FAS/FAZ game anymore?

 

[JS80]

Makes sense. So by going for capital preservation, my guess is you're avoiding options entirely now?

Do you play the FAS/FAZ game anymore?

I will still utilize options, but will go for spreads and (try to) only use profits. I might go long if the market does crap out this week.

Butt still hurts from playing FAS/FAZ back in the day. I don't think I've touched it since.

 

[manlymatt83]

I will still utilize options, but will go for spreads and (try to) only use profits. I might go long if the market does crap out this week.

Butt still hurts from playing FAS/FAZ back in the day. I don't think I've touched it since.

Yeah I remember when I had one huge win and then got greedy and lost it all.

 

[xaeniac]

any thoughts on rimm or nokia stock??

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Lothar,

AEO and ARO look very tempting. Have you bought either? How about Buckle?

 

[JS80]

Lothar,

AEO and ARO look very tempting. Have you bought either? How about Buckle?

Wow...check out GPS valuations

 

[lothar]

Lothar,

AEO and ARO look very tempting. Have you bought either? How about Buckle?

I haven't bought either of them yet.
AEO looks as cheap as ARO, but I'm going with proven management here and thus ARO.

Buckle is clearly the best of the bunch I've looked at and it seems to be one of those "hold forever" Buffett companies, but not worth the risk/reward ratio at it's current price. It's probably fairly valued right now, if not a bit overvalued.

A lot of people seem to be buying GPS recently, but I haven't looked at it in detail like ARO. I'm not sure what's going on there and haven't really compared them.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

If I get some time, iwill be reading more indepth about a handful of the retailers mentioned. Hopefully I will be able to make a move.

 

[Arcadio]

Can mutual funds be discussed in this thread?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Can mutual funds be discussed in this thread?

Sure. I personally can't comment on them but ask away.

 

[Arcadio]

I want to invest some money in mutual funds. I've never invested money, but I'm doing research. I am looking for long term investment. I don't want/need returns right away. I don't want to take large risks, at least not with most of the money I set aside for investing.

-What percentage of my net worth should be invested in Mutual Funds?

-Should I invest in one or two mutual funds? Or maybe more?

-I know I should look for low expense ratio, no-load, funds. Anything else I should look into?

-Any websites I should look into? Any specific mutual funds I should take a look at?


Thanks in advance.

 

[SSSnail]

Talk to Chuck, Arcadio. Plenty of no fees ETFs.

 

[KB]

I want to invest some money in mutual funds. I've never invested money, but I'm doing research. I am looking for long term investment. I don't want/need returns right away. I don't want to take large risks, at least not with most of the money I set aside for investing.

-What percentage of my net worth should be invested in Mutual Funds?

-Should I invest in one or two mutual funds? Or maybe more?

-I know I should look for low expense ratio, no-load, funds. Anything else I should look into?

-Any websites I should look into? Any specific mutual funds I should take a look at?


Thanks in advance.

If you will be putting a bunch of money one-time into the market then I would agree with SSSnail in that you should look into some ETFs. ETFs have lower yearly fees, the only downside is that you pay commissions when you buy and sell shares through your broker. Someone earlier recommended IWS and agree with them. I also think XLF is finally due for some good growth but thats speculation on my part. IWM and SPY are also good ETFs.

If you will be adding money into the fund at a steady pace, then continue focusing on mutual funds. Mutual funds do not usually have commissions for buying new shares, but they have larger management fees than ETFs. Mutual funds are often very diverisifed so going overboard with multiple funds isn't required. Two should be good enough.

 

[SSSnail]

That's why I said talk to Chuck (Schwab), their ETFs have no fees. Arcadio has lots of questions that a qualified financial consultant can answer, and most likely can be answered with a free initial consultation, me thinks.

 

[manlymatt83]

Anyone going long for tomorrow?

 

[snoopdoug1]

I want to invest some money in mutual funds. I've never invested money, but I'm doing research. I am looking for long term investment. I don't want/need returns right away. I don't want to take large risks, at least not with most of the money I set aside for investing.

-What percentage of my net worth should be invested in Mutual Funds?

-Should I invest in one or two mutual funds? Or maybe more?

-I know I should look for low expense ratio, no-load, funds. Anything else I should look into?

-Any websites I should look into? Any specific mutual funds I should take a look at?


Thanks in advance.

Check out the bogleheads.org website - post for help with your plan.

 

[lothar]

I want to invest some money in mutual funds. I've never invested money, but I'm doing research. I am looking for long term investment. I don't want/need returns right away. I don't want to take large risks, at least not with most of the money I set aside for investing.

-What percentage of my net worth should be invested in Mutual Funds?

-Should I invest in one or two mutual funds? Or maybe more?

-I know I should look for low expense ratio, no-load, funds. Anything else I should look into?

-Any websites I should look into? Any specific mutual funds I should take a look at?


Thanks in advance.

Vanguard and Bogleheads.
That's all you need to know.

 

[eLiu]

Vanguard and Bogleheads.
That's all you need to know.

Vanguard also has a nice ETF vs fund cost estimator (for their funds/etfs) that you can use to see roughly how expensive each one will be over the period of interest.

And if you do your buying/selling through their site, their ETFs/funds are commission-free (but funds w/loads don't waive those).

 

[sunzt]

Anyone going long for tomorrow?

Market is currently at a decision point so it's too risky for me to pick a direction now. I'll wait and see where the direction goes, but my gut and the charts look like more downwards action. May see a few pops here and there or even a short run, but i think it'll end lower before august or september.