***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[SSSnail]

Not saying that you won't, but with most of the pennies pump and dump, if you get in early you will make money, and usually a few hundred percents (I participated in a few, don't know if you remember from past threads and SPNG or Sponge Tech - I rode that bish from $.08 to $.30 in two days). I understand that you have your sources, so there might be something to it; from my experience, pennies + micro cap + extremely low volume = bad news.

Edit: Heck, did anybody pick up MPEL? You know, the one that I've been recommending for a while now? Even check back in this thread, you'll be amazed that from the time first recommended it till now how much in % you would have made.

My other pennies that I actually am holding long is ACTC, with average at $.07.

 

[Azurik]

My other pennies that I actually am holding long is ACTC, with average at $.07.

Nice pick. I was actually in ACTC earlier in my non-profit.ly account. Sold out in early January - no idea what's going on with it anymore.

 

[SSSnail]

Nice pick. I was actually in ACTC earlier in my non-profit.ly account. Sold out in early January - no idea what's going on with it anymore.

I consider my fund in ACTC as a charity more than an investment, if it works out, great. If not, at least I was helping the cause .

Allow me to update you on ACTC, basically they and Geron are the only two companies in the world right now that have FDA approval for stem cells clinical trials on human, except that ACTC has way more patterns (that and they own the pattern to produce stem cells without destroying embryos). I think we should see a bump coming in June once the trial is announced (phase 1/2), right now they've been selecting/being selected at different institutes for clinical trial sites. I think June is when they'll announce the trials commencement.

If you have the time, read up on them as I don't want to come off as a pitcher.

I really wish for their success, not just for monetary gains, but for the betterment of all. The one thing that is kinda scary for me right now is the amount of OS for them - 1.5BN. There's a shareholder meeting on 6/9, which I think will be for the authorization of an RS.

Likewise, the preceding is not an endorsement nor buying recommendation, I'm sure you all know that by now. But if you want to invest for a good cause, I'd want to gauge the timing a bit.

 

[lothar]

how? seriously, you don't see it? just look at the 5yr graph of FRPT, ITMN, DNDN...see anything in common? all of them have gone thru a big down swing, in fact, one can probably guess when he was start to get interested in a stock, for FRPT, probably after 1/08, ITMN, probably after May 2010, DNDN, probably after May 2007, I think that's when FDA rejected Provenge the first time around, the stock went from 19 to 6. I too love stocks like that, in fact this is one of my investment strategies. I guess you can call me catalyst stocks trader with a little bit of bottom fishing throw in.

It's more likely that Azurik trades based on volume than picking 52 week low stocks through bottom fishing.

Most likely he either has or uses some type of volume program algorithm or something that notices rapid volume changes and then he does his research from there, not necessarily the other way around(such as bottom fishing) as you're putting it.
I believed he mentioned this ~3-4 years ago in one of the ***official stock market threads***

The 52 week low strategy and along with buying from industries out of favor(such as when I bought BP bond yielding ~13% interest last year along with a butt load of energy stocks after the oil rig fiasco that unfairly punished many companies) is my own, not his. ^_^

 

[richardycc]

the pump is on for SGMO.

 

[Azurik]

the pump is on for SGMO.

What's going on with it?

Although the company is too big with too many shares to be considered a true pump.

 

[Azurik]

...but wrong on the price action. After-hours means nothing (especially with low volume pennies) - easily manipulated by the MMs. I bet you I earn 30%-50%+ after all is said and done.

Looking good so far...

Edit: Sorry guys, I can't respond to more PMs about my newsletter. I appreciate the interest, but I have to balance between what I contribute here and what is fairness to my subscribers.

The newsletter is opening back up to new members next month. I can accept about 30 more people. Be forewarned it is not cheap. PM me with your e-mail address to signify you are interested and I'll let you know when you can register.

 

[richardycc]

What's going on with it?

Although the company is too big with too many shares to be considered a true pump.

Maybe pumping isn’t the right word..just that I was reading about the Berlin patient, the guy that was “cured” of HIV after receiving a stem cell transplant. It looks like SGMO has a study attempts to replicates the Berlin patient process. If they are successful, it might be the cure for HIV. And someone else told me to look into this company, and there was the seeking Alpha merger article from Sunday. So it looks like SGMO could become a hot stock soon. There are definitely a lot of interest and vol starting to pick up. So who knows….

 

[FelixDeCat]

Did I fail to mention Dendreon is part of the pharmaceutical cabal of false hopes and promises? Why in the world should the people of the United States be forced to pay to prolong the life of someone for no longer than a few extra months at a cost that could exceed several hundred thousand dollars? Why?

Provenge is not a cure. Provenge is not guranteed to work. Provenge may extend your life by a few months or you'll kick the bucket tomorrow. Heck, you may as well let nature take its course since the odds are about the same and you wont have some snake oil shyster company in your heir's pockets. It is sad, but you wont survive. Nobody will. We all die. Our bodies are designed to naturally terminate at some point. Our organs degenerate, our immune systems begin to attack healthy tissue, or the act of living itself claims us in one way or another.

I have been victimized by the pharmaceutical cabal. They are not interested in curing anyone. There is NO MONEY in cures. There is however a pretty penny to be made in "therapies" which temporarily relieve symptoms. And with billions of dollars at stake, it is not in their best interest to cure anyone.

The genious in producing monoclonal antibodies such as Provenge is that the process to make the drug is so involved and expensive that even after your patent expires, it is not feasable for other companies to produce a generic equivalent of your product. Much has been written on this subject. See for yourself. Your jaw will drop.

And without competition you can charge what ever you please! The sky is the limit, and those drug companies have no compelling reason to find cheaper ways to produce the drug since noone can offer an alternative source. That means that your fat 20-30% margins remain intact until something better comes along, if ever. Talk about shooting fish in a barrel.

After 13 years of taking these "therapies" I finally resorted taking Remicade by J&J. It cost over $9,000 an injection. I took six of them and it proved to be ineffective. Yes, part of that $9k was hospital charges for the IV room, but other places charge close to $20k per injection. I finally had the condition surgically corrected and that was the end of it. After all those years of suffering, its over for good.

Excluding Provenge, monoclonal antibodies in their various forms do seem to be beneficial to some as they provide long term relief of symptoms. But they are EXTREMELY expensive and represent a HUGE burden to all. Do you think the drug companies are going to help a competitor produce a generic when their patent expires? If so, I have a bridge to sell you.

 

[Azurik]

text

Felix,

I don't even know where to begin with this.

Where is this article from?

And Provenge doesn't extend your life for a "few months" at maximum. The median is 4.3 months, it is not the average. MEDIAN means half of patients survive under 4.3 months, and half survive more, sometimes significantly more.

This comes with minimum side effects, whereas, with other alternatives for prostrate cancer (chemo, Taxotere, etc.) the initial cost may be lower, but it comes with a slew of major side effects that's going to take money to take care of anyway.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Felix,

I don't even know where to begin with this.

Where is this article from?

And Provenge doesn't extend your life for a "few months" at maximum. The median is 4.3 months, it is not the average. MEDIAN means half of patients survive under 4.3 months, and half survive more, sometimes significantly more.

This comes with minimum side effects, whereas, with other alternatives for prostrate cancer (chemo, Taxotere, etc.) the initial cost may be lower, but it comes with a slew of major side effects that's going to take money to take care of anyway.

Im not sure what article you were referring to, but if you mean my post, I wrote it in its entirety. I have traded Dendreon, but not in years. Also, I probably was focused more on opinions that might have had a negative slant when Provenge was first denied Medicare coverage, that I mostly agreed with.

After living with the disease since 1990 and suffering with major symptoms starting in 1997 and ending 2010, I have nothing but bitterness, anger and scorn for the pharmaceutical industry as a whole. If I had known that surgery was the correct option for me, I wouldnt have lost all those years to false hopes and promises.

Yes, they are businesses like any other and getting exclusive access to markets in perpetuity is every companies wet dream, but that doesnt make it right. Not when so much is stake. America is broke. Our healthcare costs are astronomical. So I oppose Dendreon on philosophical reasons no matter how much money they make. They make me ill.

I can only hope our worthless representatives force the industry to sublease their plants and equipment to produce generic equivalents one day. But then I know that will likely never happen. :thumbsdown:

 

[Azurik]

Im not sure what article you were referring to, but if you mean my post, I wrote it in its entirety. I have traded Dendreon, but not in years. Also, I probably was focused more on opinions that might have had a negative slant when Provenge was first denied Medicare coverage, that I mostly agreed with.

After living with the disease since 1990 and suffering with major symptoms starting in 1997 and ending 2010, I have nothing but bitterness, anger and scorn for the pharmaceutical industry as a whole. If I had known that surgery was the correct option for me, I wouldnt have lost all those years to false hopes and promises.

Yes, they are businesses like any other and getting exclusive access to markets in perpetuity is every companies wet dream, but that doesnt make it right. Not when so much is stake. America is broke. Our healthcare costs are astronomical. So I oppose Dendreon on philosophical reasons no matter how much money they make. They make me ill.

I can only hope our worthless representatives force the industry to sublease their plants and equipment to produce generic equivalents one day. But then I know that will likely never happen. :thumbsdown:

Personal life experience and price aside, do you agree that Provenge is a breakthrough in treating prostate cancer?

Of course, almost everything is a business. There are huge risk and significant money involved when experimenting with drugs and therapies for known illnesses and cancer. They have to recoup their investments and be a profitable company for their investors. No one said you couldn't compete against Dendreon, go fund a company and work in producing therapies if you wanted to. Are you blaming the doctors and scientists who work at Dendreon?

With prostate cancer involving usually older men, at that age, given the benefits of Provenge over known and approved alternatives, I'd take the more expensive Provenge in a heartbeat - investments aside.

I mean, if you feel so passionately against pharm companies, why not take it a step further and boycott oil companies, solar energy, software companies, etc.? Everything can be tied to an evil.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Personal life experience and price aside, do you agree that Provenge is a breakthrough in treating prostate cancer?

Of course, almost everything is a business. There are huge risk and significant money involved when experimenting with drugs and therapies for known illnesses and cancer. They have to recoup their investments and be a profitable company for their investors. No one said you couldn't compete against Dendreon, go fund a company and work in producing therapies if you wanted to. Are you blaming the doctors and scientists who work at Dendreon?

With prostate cancer involving usually older men, at that age, given the benefits of Provenge over known and approved alternatives, I'd take the more expensive Provenge in a heartbeat - investments aside.

I mean, if you feel so passionately against pharm companies, why not take it a step further and boycott oil companies, solar energy, software companies, etc.? Everything can be tied to an evil.

Breakthrough to 50% or less of prostrate cancer patients? Perhaps. Beneficial to society as a whole with regard to its high cost? Im inclined to think otherwise.

The only way to compete with Provenge is to develop a brand new alternative. And since the industy places profits above all else, they will undoubtedly persue something based on monoclonal antibodies (MA). Even if it is slightly more effective it will probably be just as expense. Consumers lose again either way. Generics are the only answer.

As you know, drug companies only have 20 years to recoup costs and profit before their patent expires and generics show up for a fraction of the cost. That is not the case for MA drugs. It is cost prohibitive to produce. So theoretically, a drug company can profit from its "invention" in perpetuity, with no price controls or anything else that is brought on by generic equivalents.

I dont think I see any other group of companies the same way I to the pharmaceutical industry.

Within four months of being "cured" of UC, I had my life back and was enjoying it with gusto. Instead of being stuck at home I could go places and do things again.

I got a little overconfident though and broke my leg which required surgery (my 3rd in 6 months) to have a plate and screws inserted because of the extensive damage. I have about a month of recovery to go. The generic hydrocodone Im taking is great at alleviating pain and helping in the recovery process (restretching the leg muscle which grows stiff quickly and becomes very hard to bend).

Also, I wish I had the resection & take down surgeries sooner. Knowing all the risks involved and after watching some of the procedure on Youtube, I almost backed out. I did a lot of praying because I didnt want anymore problems in my life and as a result the procedures were succesful and without complication. In fact, the results have been much better than anticipated. My prayers were answered.

 

[Azurik]

I'm happy that surgery made you feel better Felix. I really am. I hope you recover from the recent rash of injuries too.

Concerining Provenge, it is meant to treat late-stage prostrate cancer. In that sense, it is aimed at almost 100% of patients under this category. And, unlike your situation, there is no cure for prostrate cancer. I don't know how much of a value do you place on length of life, but I would be very glad to pay $93k to Provenge. It's a one-time treatment that doesn't require me to keeping going back. It has minimal side effects. It allows me to lead a normal life, hopefully for years. You can't put a price on that.

We can argue on the merits of pharm companies to death, and I would participate in it... in a new thread. Since this is a stock market thread though, let's focus on the current realities we face as investors and traders, rather than the morality and ethics of an industry.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Money where my mouth is:
"You bought XXX shares of WFC at $27.80 on 05/23/2011" - Ameritrade

Also keeping an eye on USG. Now in the mid $13s. I am adding more shares at $13.11 to drop my cost basis by 10% or so.

My money is on the fact that Buffett is buying USG right now. His recent disclosure hinted at the fact that he is accumulating something (there was a note saying something was not disclosed). My money is on an eventual USG buyout.

 

[VinylxScratches]

I can't find any recent sources showing Warren into that stock? Do you have any links?

 

[mitmot]

I can't find any recent sources showing Warren into that stock? Do you have any links?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/271111-american-express-the-best-stock-in-warren-buffett-s-portfolio

*pushes staples easy button*

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I can't find any recent sources showing Warren into that stock? Do you have any links?

Buffett owns both.

Owns 10% or so of WFC.
Owns 17% of USG. Also has convertable debt in USG so it's really more ownership interest than that. Pretty much why I think he is now buying more.

http://www.gurufocus.com/holdings.php?GuruName=Warren+Buffett

 

[VinylxScratches]

Thanks!

 

[VinylxScratches]

Anyone doing anything big tomorrow? I just put some into TBBC @ 1.43, it's down to 1.42

 

[lothar]

Money where my mouth is:
"You bought XXX shares of WFC at $27.80 on 05/23/2011" - Ameritrade

Also keeping an eye on USG. Now in the mid $13s. I am adding more shares at $13.11 to drop my cost basis by 10% or so.

My money is on the fact that Buffett is buying USG right now. His recent disclosure hinted at the fact that he is accumulating something (there was a note saying something was not disclosed). My money is on an eventual USG buyout.

I doubt that.
What purpose does it serve to hide something you already own that has already been declared publicly? Everyone already knows you own it and can make their own educated guesses, you're not fooling anyone by doing that.

"Lying by ommission" is not really lying. However filing statements to investors that you own an "exact" amount of a security issue at a certain date when you really don't sounds borderline fraudulent.

If anything, I would assume it's a totally new position.
I have always assumed that Buffett's agreement with the SEC on "copy cat" investing was that he can choose not to reveal his buying on new security issues(and not on existing ones), not the other way around as you're suggesting?
If what you're suggesting is true, then that means Buffett is also allowed to be selling shares in USG while disclosing to investors publicly through numerous filings that he still owns a 17% stake in said firm? So as long as he discloses that he's selling to the SEC, it's okay for him to do that?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I doubt that.
What purpose does it serve to hide something you already own that has already been declared publicly? Everyone already knows you own it and can make their own educated guesses, you're not fooling anyone by doing that.

"Lying by ommission" is not really lying. However filing statements to investors that you own an "exact" amount of a security issue at a certain date when you really don't sounds borderline fraudulent.

If anything, I would assume it's a totally new position.
I have always assumed that Buffett's agreement with the SEC on "copy cat" investing was that he can choose not to reveal his buying on new security issues(and not on existing ones), not the other way around as you're suggesting?
If what you're suggesting is true, then that means Buffett is also allowed to be selling shares in USG while disclosing to investors publicly through numerous filings that he still owns a 17% stake in said firm? So as long as he discloses that he's selling to the SEC, it's okay for him to do that?

I guess I'd have to look at past examples of what he has done in omitting information.

But for him to omit the fact that he has more USG now serves the same purpose as it always does. It prevents people from bandwaggonining thus driving the price up.

 

[Azurik]

Quick notes:

I haven't exited my current P&D target. Price action looks good. Consolidated shares from people who got in early and moved forward fast.

DNDN looks good after falling from their earnings. June clearance for the rest of their centers and a stronger earnings report is expected.

ESYL got dumped and now the second mini-pump going on.

EDIT: I am genuinely appreciative of the huge response I received regarding my newsletter. All my invites have been sent out or on their way. Any requests going forward will be on the waiting list if someone chooses not to subscribe. There is a reason why I accept a limited amount at a time - that is I want to keep the quality up. 30 people may not seem like a lot, but when each (especially in the beginning) asks 1-2 questions, along with the others, it takes up a lot of time. The newsletter itself is time-consuming in terms of writing about the economy, the markets and my plays. But I enjoy it immensely and have a love for finance and people are are passionate about it.

I'm very open about my price plan during private e-mail, which is very competitive considering what competitors charge and the amount of discount I give for 2 year packages. It works out to about 2-3 trades a month at a broker.

 

[Azurik]

I don't know about it short term as DNDN seems to be a tough stock to trade. Long term I like it a lot (1+ years).

My sentiments exactly. And as we speak, it's ramped back up close its 52-week high.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Whoever bought SD at $10 when I did not re-enter (I was waiting for $8), congrats. Broke $12 today.