***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Azurik,

Since you seem to know more about RMBS than I do, I will stop arguing (even though I had prepared a rebuttal we are obviously never going to agree and wisdom tells me to let you win). I still think its going to $5 this year either based on its own merits or when America is forced deal with its budget problems in the forthcomming months (as explained in posts around #563). I have no position in RMBS so this is a paper trade.

In addition, while I dont specifically remember saying that people should go "all in" in 2008 predicting a rise in the stock market as a whole, I know without a doubt I do make bad calls. One in particular was right after making a nice return in an option call on BP (during last years spill) which I announced before and after the trade. At the time BP was about to break $30 and the fear was that bankruptcy might be imminent. I bought a cheap put and dumped it when BP broke $28. My mistake was double dipping when $25 looked like the next stop. In the past I had successfully shorted AIG (and others) watching the same thing happen (downward momentum, the shorts piling in - naked or otherwise - causing a panic). Around that time, the sovereign wealth funds of Dubai and Saudi Arabia found BP to be attractive just as I bought another put. Their purchases put a floor on the stock price, and my put was almost worthless by the end of the day. Double dipping after a nice profit always gets me.

When I argue about a stock I try my best not to make the argument personal. A friendly constructive chat is a benefit to all, but making it personal serves no one.

 

[lothar]

I have one strategy, and that is to invest in markets I know and understand - or have a good jive where it is going. I don't get emotionally attached to a stock, but maybe RMBS is the closest thing you can categorize in that section.

With me, I personally tell people the majority of my buys and sells. If you looked at that link you attached and look at the following year's thread, there were huge money makers in there that people were, excuse my french, scared shitless to invest in because of turbulent times. The fear factor was so high in retrospect. RMBS at $5, DNDN @ $4, being a bull on oil at $40 a barrel, ITMN @ $10. These are now 100%-4,000% gains. Fear presents opportunity.

Have I gotten some timing wrong or made some bad calls. Of course I have. Anyone who says otherwise isn't telling the truth. I lost $15k in less than a month when I misread a penny stock.

That's why I created an account on the profit.ly site I linked earlier to show my verified trades in the account I opened in January 2011 with $1,000 to mimic what I did as an 18 year old years and years ago. It's now $10,000 in 5 months. I can't do this with my big accounts. At that level, there's a weighted risk factor that plays in and pennies can't be worked with big dollars.

The name of the game is hedging your risk and never EVER putting all your money in one basket.

I have no doubt that you conduct your own due diligence and you certainly don't trade on emotion, but some of the swingers here do seem to get emotionally attached to them.

I will say this...
You've contributed many things to the 2007-2011 stock market threads since I've been following you.
Many of the calls you made on the forums here were winners(assuming people bought them when you announced them and not 6 months -2 years later like most people here did with RMBS). FRPT, BDYT, RMBS, ITMN, DNDN, your most recent short sell recommendation, and many others were all winners.
In fact, I don't remember you ever recommending something here that was a loser.

If there's anything anyone wants to learn here it's "Buy a stock immediately Azurik announces/recommends it OR don't buy at all, especially if you don't understand it."

I have never bought any of your securities because I don't know much about them and I end up tossing them after looking at them for 15-30 minutes. I'm more interested in "how" you come up with them, not necessarily "what" you come up with.
I'm sure you've heard the Chinese proverb "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime."?

 

[richardycc]

how? seriously, you don't see it? just look at the 5yr graph of FRPT, ITMN, DNDN...see anything in common? all of them have gone thru a big down swing, in fact, one can probably guess when he was start to get interested in a stock, for FRPT, probably after 1/08, ITMN, probably after May 2010, DNDN, probably after May 2007, I think that's when FDA rejected Provenge the first time around, the stock went from 19 to 6. I too love stocks like that, in fact this is one of my investment strategies. I guess you can call me catalyst stocks trader with a little bit of bottom fishing throw in.

 

[VinylxScratches]

Lets stop talking about RMBS!

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

What was Azuriks last buy call here? Want to read up on whatever company it is.

I don't short.

 

[Azurik]

Azurik,

Since you seem to know more about RMBS than I do, I will stop arguing (even though I had prepared a rebuttal we are obviously never going to agree and wisdom tells me to let you win). I still think its going to $5 this year either based on its own merits or when America is forced deal with its budget problems in the forthcomming months (as explained in posts around #563). I have no position in RMBS so this is a paper trade.

In addition, while I dont specifically remember saying that people should go "all in" in 2008 predicting a rise in the stock market as a whole, I know without a doubt I do make bad calls. One in particular was right after making a nice return in an option call on BP (during last years spill) which I announced before and after the trade. At the time BP was about to break $30 and the fear was that bankruptcy might be imminent. I bought a cheap put and dumped it when BP broke $28. My mistake was double dipping when $25 looked like the next stop. In the past I had successfully shorted AIG (and others) watching the same thing happen (downward momentum, the shorts piling in - naked or otherwise - causing a panic). Around that time, the sovereign wealth funds of Dubai and Saudi Arabia found BP to be attractive just as I bought another put. Their purchases put a floor on the stock price, and my put was almost worthless by the end of the day. Double dipping after a nice profit always gets me.

When I argue about a stock I try my best not to make the argument personal. A friendly constructive chat is a benefit to all, but making it personal serves no one.

Felix,

I agree, and I apologize if part of my response sounded confrontational. It's just I hear too much false information regarding RMBS due to FUD being spread around. I appreciate you voicing an opposite view of where the share price will go. You're right, a friendly debate is a benefit to all... just remember don't talk about RMBS in the future

 

[Azurik]

I have no doubt that you conduct your own due diligence and you certainly don't trade on emotion, but some of the swingers here do seem to get emotionally attached to them.

I will say this...
You've contributed many things to the 2007-2011 stock market threads since I've been following you.
Many of the calls you made on the forums here were winners(assuming people bought them when you announced them and not 6 months -2 years later like most people here did with RMBS). FRPT, BDYT, RMBS, ITMN, DNDN, your most recent short sell recommendation, and many others were all winners.
In fact, I don't remember you ever recommending something here that was a loser.

If there's anything anyone wants to learn here it's "Buy a stock immediately Azurik announces/recommends it OR don't buy at all, especially if you don't understand it."

I have never bought any of your securities because I don't know much about them and I end up tossing them after looking at them for 15-30 minutes. I'm more interested in "how" you come up with them, not necessarily "what" you come up with.
I'm sure you've heard the Chinese proverb "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime."?

When I reopen my newsletter, I'll be sure to point you in the right direction

But in general, yes, this is what I try to do, teach people HOW I find my picks, rather than spoon feeding them because as you say, they'll never learn to survive by themselves.

My 3 general strategies are:

1. IP Companies (QCOM, RMBS, TSRA, TIVO, VHC) - I understand the general tech and the resistance of big companies to pay. I follow court cases very closely and through advice and opinions of lawyers and businessmen, I place my bets. Sometimes long holds, other times, on verdicts about to be handed down.

2. Healthcare (DNDN, ITMN, GENE) - I prefer the riskier, non-mature bio-plays with potential drug blockbusters that have passed Phase II/Phase III testing. Sometimes I play the swings and other times I'm long long-term based on the valuation and potential of the company.

3. Pennies - I have a strategy to screen stocks and try to buy right when the pumpers do. I don't know how high it usually goes, but usually sell when I it reaches a target I have in my head. I tend to sell out too early, but that's to avoid the risk of getting out too late (when the dump has already happened).

 

[Azurik]

What was Azuriks last buy call here? Want to read up on whatever company it is.

I don't short.

Well, my latest buy, you won't be able to glean to much useful information on it. Got in 2 days ago @ $1.25 average. I think this is a brewer in the making with all my check boxes being checked, but one. But that missing one might be confirmed today. With this information, you might be able to find out what the stock is.

I'll announce it tomorrow. Don't want an ATOT effect on it, you guys can screw up the whole thing

EDIT: I'll post it today, volume seems to be getting heavier so I'll post the chart for you guys.

 

[Aharami]

I have never bought any of your securities because I don't know much about them and I end up tossing them after looking at them for 15-30 minutes. I'm more interested in "how" you come up with them, not necessarily "what" you come up with.
I'm sure you've heard the Chinese proverb "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime."?

I'm in a similar boat. I've followed these threads, but I never bought in because I didn't understand the strategy. I want to start building a substantial portfolio - one for long term investing and one for short term gains and playing the market. My question is, when the seasoned investors here started out, where did you go to get an in depth understanding of the stock market?

When I reopen my newsletter, I'll be sure to point you in the right direction

But in general, yes, this is what I try to do, teach people HOW I find my picks, rather than spoon feeding them because as you say, they'll never learn to survive by themselves.

My 3 general strategies are:

1. IP Companies (QCOM, RMBS, TSRA, TIVO, VHC) - I understand the general tech and the resistance of big companies to pay. I follow court cases very closely and through advice and opinions of lawyers and businessmen, I place my bets. Sometimes long holds, other times, on verdicts about to be handed down.

2. Healthcare (DNDN, ITMN, GENE) - I prefer the riskier, non-mature bio-plays with potential drug blockbusters that have passed Phase II/Phase III testing. Sometimes I play the swings and other times I'm long long-term based on the valuation and potential of the company.

3. Pennies - I have a strategy to screen stocks and try to buy right when the pumpers do. I don't know how high it usually goes, but usually sell when I it reaches a target I have in my head. I tend to sell out too early, but that's to avoid the risk of getting out too late (when the dump has already happened).

Thanks for explaining some of your strategy Azurik. I'd love to follow your newsletter as well when you do open up. Re. the penny stocks - how do you screen for stocks that are being pumped up? Timing is everything for those, and missing the initial stages of the pump makes it not worthwhile to invest in that stock.

 

[Azurik]

I'll let you know when it opens up

 

[richardycc]

holy cow, Linked in is up 100% already.

 

[FelixDeCat]

holy cow, Linked in is up 100% already.

I dont see what makes that site so valuable. It reminds me of when I was trading internet stocks back in the late 90s. All the trash came to market and all it had to have was a .com in the name and it was almost a guaranteed double.

The worst stock I could remember was some little money losing pip squeek piece of garbage internet site similar to geocities. It debuted at $30 and hit $90 intraday during its IPO in 1999. By early 2001 it was delisted and going for .25 cents a share. Total trash.

Likewise, I dont see what makes LNKD so valuable. I suspect once the hoopla of this business networking site dies down it will come to its offering price or below, maybe just before the lockup expires and insiders can legally dump en masse. There is usually a pop afterwords about a month following passage of said lockup date if no percipitous decline happens then a gradual return to the mean depending on earnings.

LNKD is not Google, its not FaceBook (another potential short after its expected 'stunning' market debut, which I plan to short the ever living crap out of as indicated in post 319 and the intense debate that followed), its not Zynga and its not even Groupon. I have checked it out and I dont see the appeal nor do I see the growth potential, so I think its just hype. But of course I will need to see earnings reports to confirm my suspicions.

Even Google fell once it reached the moon (before going back up again). I even remember comming to have a laugh at Apple once when the shorts came to kick it in the teeth and chuckle at longs in late 2000. It experienced a near 50% correction to $19 after iMacs were no longer hot. After languising for nearly three years afterwords, who knew that Steve Jobs would move away from PCs to portable consumer devices like mp3 players then PDA/smart phones, and that the stock would go up 20 fold over time. He found his niche - appeal to the masses and their love of high margin "Monster Cable" type solutions to everyday technology. :sneaky:

 

[Aharami]

holy cow, Linked in is up 100% already.

correct me if I'm wrong but, it's only up 100% for those who were invited into the IPO - i.e. wealthy investors and institutions. The lowest regular joe could buy it at this morning was ~$83. So it's 'only' up about 19% for the average joe (current price is $99)

 

[HopJokey]

LNKD = $115 now.

 

[richardycc]

it's absolutely crazy..like people are buying it at any cost....its $120 now.

 

[rcpratt]

This is hilarious and ridiculous.

 

[FelixDeCat]

From the WSJ:

In 2010, revenue at LinkedIn doubled to $243 million and net income was $15.4 million, compared with a loss of $4 million a year earlier. In the first quarter of 2011, revenue also doubled to $94 million and net income rose 14% to $2.1 million from a year earlier. ​

The company expects its revenue growth rate to slow and warns that it won't be profitable in 2011 as it invests in what it calls future growth, such as technology and product development. It also warns that it expects that its results in the future could become more cyclical and seasonal.

Based on its current stock price it has a $10B valuation.

​

 

[Imp]

From the WSJ:

Based on its current stock price it has a $10B valuation.

​

lol

That's what I've read. The company makes pocket change, and has limited growth potential.

Welcome to the next bubble. Oh wait, it's been here for a while.

 

[Azurik]

Well, my latest buy, you won't be able to glean to much useful information on it. Got in 2 days ago @ $1.25 average. I think this is a brewer in the making with all my check boxes being checked, but one. But that missing one might be confirmed today. With this information, you might be able to find out what the stock is.

I'll announce it tomorrow. Don't want an ATOT effect on it, you guys can screw up the whole thing

EDIT: I'll post it today, volume seems to be getting heavier so I'll post the chart for you guys.

Got the last check box to turn green - volume confirmation follow-through.

P.S. I don't have a buy rec out of this. Just stating I bought it. I can't guess where the price will end up yet - need a few more days for that. You can see players got in around $1.11, so my $1.25 buy in isn't bad.

 

[jessieqwert]

Since you posted the chart, I'm hoping you could explain it a bit more. I understand the fundamentals of volume and ranges but I'm curious what else it shows?

Thanks

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Since you posted the chart, I'm hoping you could explain it a bit more. I understand the fundamentals of volume and ranges but I'm curious what else it shows?

Thanks

Ditto. What is it that is seen here?

 

[SSSnail]

The only things I see on that chart are RSI (relative strength index), Moving Averages of 50/100/200 days and volume...

That and a three white soldiers + long shadow which means the PPS tend to trend lower, which it did in after hours... The blue line is the overall trend, and since they just jumped on OTC not too long ago, maybe that's the news that attracted the volume.

Well, I might be wrong here, but looks like a pump and dump. Volume is drying up, so unless something shattering is announced, price will dwindle back down.

 

[Aharami]

That and a three white soldiers + long shadow which means the PPS tend to trend lower, which it did in after hours...

care to explain the this bit in more detail?

 

[SSSnail]

care to explain the this bit in more detail?

Three white soldier - http://web.streetauthority.com/terms/t/threewhitesoldiers.asp - basically it's three strong consecutive advance in price which is usually a bullish indicator, but you can't just base on that alone.

Long shadow on a candlestick basically means that it opens with more buying and ended up with more selling. It carries a momentum.

Based on what I see from a technical perspective, it's running out of steam. If left on its own, volume will dry up and price will slowly decline. Check it tomorrow.

My charts usually have a few more indicators than that but that's because I treated it like a video game complete with hot keys and shortcuts. I haven't done that for a while now...

 

[Azurik]

The only things I see on that chart are RSI (relative strength index), Moving Averages of 50/100/200 days and volume...

That and a three white soldiers + long shadow which means the PPS tend to trend lower, which it did in after hours... The blue line is the overall trend, and since they just jumped on OTC not too long ago, maybe that's the news that attracted the volume.

Well, I might be wrong here, but looks like a pump and dump. Volume is drying up, so unless something shattering is announced, price will dwindle back down.

Good analysis, but I think you're looking too deeply into the techs and not pinpointing what I think is going on (not any of your fault, it's hard to read into pennies if you're not into it daily).

It's going to take a few more days, but from my experience, I think you're wrong.

I agree with you on a potential pump and dump, but wrong on the price action. After-hours means nothing (especially with low volume pennies) - easily manipulated by the MMs. I bet you I earn 30%-50%+ after all is said and done.

Disclaimer: This is not a buy rec. I don't have enough data yet to see, and hence, can't explain in detail what is happening until the story unfolds. Few more days, and I'll give you my story and what I saw.