***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[IHateMyJob2004]

I personally wouldn't call it transparent or just "some over the counter drugs."

First, lets tackle the "some" part of your quote. Here are the over the counter recalls. That "some" part includes dozens of products in the Motrin, Tylenol, Benadryl, Rolaids, Simply Sleep, and St. Joseph lines. These aren't minor products, they are very well known products and a large number of them.

Next, the "over the counter" part. This week they pulled an HIV drug. In March it was Insulin pumps and surgical sutures. In Feb, it was Prescription filled syringes. Etc.

As for the transparent part, what about hiring consultants to do a phantom recall? That isn't transparent at all.

This stuff has been going on for 2.5 years. They are still using the contaminated wood pallets instead of the slightly more expensive plastic ones. They still have terrible cleaning proceedures. They still have smells two years later and it is spreading into prescription drugs. They still have an attitude of arrogance. In light of that, what makes you think that J&J should trade at an all time high (their previous high was under $72)?

Your argument is that JNJ is not transparent yet you know all of this?

 

[goog40]

I'm having a hard time understanding how AAPL is so cheap despite their incredible earnings and growth. They're holding almost $70/share in cash and are trading at a forward PE ratio of less than 12.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/269...e-financial-crisis-despite-92-earnings-growth

 

[Blieb]

RMBS ... yeeeowwwwww
Where's the bottom?

 

[endervalentine]

RMBS ... yeeeowwwwww
Where's the bottom?

yeah, got my last block of shares today, promised myself I will stop putting money into it regardless how 'cheap' it looks.

 

[Azurik]

It's been a tough week for RMBS. Reminds me of the 2008 crash when it went from $24 to $4.95 a share. Took a lot of guts to get in after such a free fall.

Not saying this time around is the same value, but some things got resolved. Honestly, best news one could hope for now is that the AT trial is on track, or that Hynix and Rambus are close to settling. Hynix released a statement in Korea late last week that with all the mixed news on both sides, they had hoped to settle with Rambus that both sides will consider fair.

Outside of this, I don't have much to add to this. One of those times.

 

[Imp]

I'm having a hard time understanding how AAPL is so cheap despite their incredible earnings and growth. They're holding almost $70/share in cash and are trading at a forward PE ratio of less than 12.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/269...e-financial-crisis-despite-92-earnings-growth

Last I checked, their P/E was 19-ish. No idea which year's earnings they were based on though.

Regardless, the "markets" are just retarded in the short-term and the other 95% of the time.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

For those value investors in here, USG dropped below $14 today and closed just over $14.

Also, Prem Watsa now owns about 14% of the company! Are he and Buffett preparing for a buyout? They own alot of covnerable debt and Buffett has about hte same amount of stock.

 

[zimu]

i still can't get over the fact that people are still rambus'sing?! are you all still hoping for a settlement? I just visited this thread and got a flashback to the official 2009 stock market thread. and the 2010 one.

 

[FelixDeCat]

i still can't get over the fact that people are still rambus'sing?! are you all still hoping for a settlement? I just visited this thread and got a flashback to the official 2009 stock market thread. and the 2010 one.

Agreed. This patent troll should have given up the ghost long ago. A lot of money has been made on both sides (long and short) in the mean time however, and WS loves melodramas for volatility purposes.

Otherwise RMBS has no other profitable means of income with negative margins and cash flow. Its just a patent troll. The end.

 

[goog40]

Last I checked, their P/E was 19-ish. No idea which year's earnings they were based on though.

Regardless, the "markets" are just retarded in the short-term and the other 95% of the time.

You were looking at their trailing P/E ratio, which is now down to 16. The forward P/E ratio is under 12. When you exclude the cash they have on hand, the forward P/E is in the single digits.

 

[lothar]

i still can't get over the fact that people are still rambus'sing?! are you all still hoping for a settlement? I just visited this thread and got a flashback to the official 2009 stock market thread. and the 2010 one.

RMBS originally started in the 2008 stock market thread.
You missed the major 2008 discussions on it.
http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=128532&page=74
(Started somewhere in the middle of that page)

Agreed. This patent troll should have given up the ghost long ago. A lot of money has been made on both sides (long and short) in the mean time however, and WS loves melodramas for volatility purposes.

Otherwise RMBS has no other profitable means of income with negative margins and cash flow. Its just a patent troll. The end.

That is true. Azurik made lots of $$$ buying RMBS when it was $5 based on when my discussions with him took place. I can't say the same for other people here who followed, however. Most people here bought after that fact when it was trading in the $15-25 range after it overtook discussions and became the "***Official*** 2009 and 2010 'RMBS' threads" in which it was the only stock anyone wanted to talk about.

A lot of people may make money day trading and timing the market.
I know that stuff is not for me, so I sit it out.

 

[Azurik]

Agreed. This patent troll should have given up the ghost long ago. A lot of money has been made on both sides (long and short) in the mean time however, and WS loves melodramas for volatility purposes.

Otherwise RMBS has no other profitable means of income with negative margins and cash flow. Its just a patent troll. The end.

Oh really?

The only thing I can agree with you is that RMBS was great for both shorts and longs with its volatile swings.

Do you even know what a patent troll is and the history of DRAM since 1989? If so, please explain to me why Rambus is a patent troll?

I find it funny that when people invent something revolutionary and bigger companies want to steal it and avoid paying for it, it's the smaller company with the idea that gets labeled as a patent troll.

With manufacturing running outside of the U.S. in droves, the only thing the U.S. has going for it are bright individuals with great ideas. If you cannot protect intellectual property, the U.S. is doomed to become a pirated country ala China, Russia and Africa.

 

[Azurik]

That is true. Azurik made lots of $$$ buying RMBS when it was $5 based on when my discussions with him took place. I can't say the same for other people here who followed, however. Most people here bought after that fact when it was trading in the $15-25 range after it overtook discussions and became the "***Official*** 2009 and 2010 'RMBS' threads" in which it was the only stock anyone wanted to talk about.

A lot of people may make money day trading and timing the market.
I know that stuff is not for me, so I sit it out.

I have one strategy, and that is to invest in markets I know and understand - or have a good jive where it is going. I don't get emotionally attached to a stock, but maybe RMBS is the closest thing you can categorize in that section.

With me, I personally tell people the majority of my buys and sells. If you looked at that link you attached and look at the following year's thread, there were huge money makers in there that people were, excuse my french, scared shitless to invest in because of turbulent times. The fear factor was so high in retrospect. RMBS at $5, DNDN @ $4, being a bull on oil at $40 a barrel, ITMN @ $10. These are now 100%-4,000% gains. Fear presents opportunity.

Have I gotten some timing wrong or made some bad calls. Of course I have. Anyone who says otherwise isn't telling the truth. I lost $15k in less than a month when I misread a penny stock.

That's why I created an account on the profit.ly site I linked earlier to show my verified trades in the account I opened in January 2011 with $1,000 to mimic what I did as an 18 year old years and years ago. It's now $10,000 in 5 months. I can't do this with my big accounts. At that level, there's a weighted risk factor that plays in and pennies can't be worked with big dollars.

The name of the game is hedging your risk and never EVER putting all your money in one basket.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Oh really?

The only thing I can agree with you is that RMBS was great for both shorts and longs with its volatile swings.

Do you even know what a patent troll is and the history of DRAM since 1989? If so, please explain to me why Rambus is a patent troll?

I find it funny that when people invent something revolutionary and bigger companies want to steal it and avoid paying for it, it's the smaller company with the idea that gets labeled as a patent troll.

With manufacturing running outside of the U.S. in droves, the only thing the U.S. has going for it are bright individuals with great ideas. If you cannot protect intellectual property, the U.S. is doomed to become a pirated country ala China, Russia and Africa.

From what I understand RMBS sat in on the JEDEC meetings when the standards for DDR were being discussed. Knowing the ideas that were about to be implemented werent protected, they rushed out to patent as much as they could prior to acceptance by the committee. They started to produce rambus while DDR was becomming mainstream after this meeting. They let the big producers make them for a while, then claimed all the ideas were theirs and somehow tied it all back to rambus. Thats a patent troll. Of course longs have "proven" otherwise....JEDEC stole RMBS IP!!!! (hogwash)

Besides all that the company cant make money to save its life because they arent competitive or profitable. With negative margins and cashflows, being pinned to the mat for destroying evidence is a death blow as evidenced in its current stock price. It will see $5 or lower this year IMO.

Losing money is no way to stay in business. :'(

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Oh really?

The only thing I can agree with you is that RMBS was great for both shorts and longs with its volatile swings.

Do you even know what a patent troll is and the history of DRAM since 1989? If so, please explain to me why Rambus is a patent troll?

I find it funny that when people invent something revolutionary and bigger companies want to steal it and avoid paying for it, it's the smaller company with the idea that gets labeled as a patent troll.

Not knowing what their patents say specifically, can I ask a question?

Did they invent something evolutionary or revolutionary? Is the use of both rising and falling clock cycles something used in silicon prior to RDRAM? Did other manufacturers use this concept on other products? Was this simply a different use for existing tech that engineers viewed as common in the industry?

Sorry for asking so many questions. This is not any sort of slam. I really just don't know how revolutionary RDRAM really is as I don't know the history of using both rising and falling cycles in silicon.

 

[Azurik]

From what I understand RMBS sat in on the JEDEC meetings when the standards for DDR were being discussed. Knowing the ideas that were about to be implemented werent protected, they rushed out to patent as much as they could prior to acceptance by the committee. They started to produce rambus while DDR was becomming mainstream after this meeting. They let the big producers make them for a while, then claimed all the ideas were theirs and somehow tied it all back to rambus. Thats a patent troll. Of course longs have "proven" otherwise....JEDEC stole RMBS IP!!!! (hogwash)

Besides all that the company cant make money to save its life because they arent competitive or profitable. With negative margins and cashflows, being pinned to the mat for destroying evidence is a death blow as evidenced in its current stock price. It will see $5 or lower this year IMO.

Losing money is no way to stay in business. :'(

Your sound like a Micron lawyer, are you sure you're not working for them?

Not sure why you're bolding the last part about predicting $5. Regular text will do. If I recall correctly, didn't you go all-in right before the 2008 crash claiming stocks were going through the roof that year?

Rambus has an important meeting at 10am today, so I can't respond now, but promise right afterwards I will. It will be interesting to see your reply to it. I'd add protection in case AT trial gets delayed after this meeting, because if it's really bad then RMBS could see single digits before seeing green.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Azurik,

Regarding jobs leaving the US, that trend will slow over time and maybe even reverse (many years from now).

The simple reasoning is that the US dollar is going to keep falling. It has nothing to do with gov't controls and everything to do with an expanding world economy where undeveloped nations will do more work for a slice of bread than people in the US.

Warren Buffett hasn't stated his reasons but he also says that in 5, 10 and 20 year time slices, the US dollar will probably be worth less.

Point of all this, is that the advanatage of overseas manufacturing will weaken over time. Just as fast as things went to China, they are now going to other countries and less is moving to China (relative to 1,2,5,10 years ago).

Some day the playing field will level out.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Everyone should have made money in 2008. my regret is not buying more WFC at $8 when I wanted to. My wife stopped me (she was freaked out by the markets even though she knew nothing about them other than the fear that the media created). It ran up to the mid 30s when I sold but my only lot was at $14. Made just over 100% when I should have made 200%.

My mistake then was not finding horribly beaten up stocks of lesser quality. I was going after "better quality" stocks. If I could do it over, I would have bought some LEE for 30 cents at the time. It went up to $3+ eventually. Now at $1 due to refianncing concerns.

 

[zimu]

Rambus has an important meeting at 10am today, so I can't respond now, but promise right afterwards I will.

haha i've seen this used in the 2008, 2009, 2010 threads. when i had some of their shares i'd be sitting by the computer waiting for news, waiting for the huge spike in the value of the shares so i could retire and have fun!

glad i sold. lot less undue stress, and based on their long term historical charts they've been flat for the past few years.

 

[Azurik]

FelixDeKat

From what I understand RMBS sat in on the JEDEC meetings when the standards for DDR were being discussed. Knowing the ideas that were about to be implemented werent protected, they rushed out to patent as much as they could prior to acceptance by the committee.

You understand incorrectly. Do you know how long it takes to get a patent?

Rambus was invited to the standards committee by JEDEC themselves, with patents already pending. When JEDEC presented slides on what they were doing, they asked Rambus specifically if they had patents on it. Rambus declined due to its patents currently "pending" and declined to answer and shortly withdrew from the committee. In fact, most companies there had already seen Rambus technology through non-disclosure agreements. Rambus showed these companies how their tech worked in good faith that they would not be revealed.

IBM, in an internal memo, labeled Rambus tech as a breakthrough in RAM and considered the company a "Deadly Menace". They offered that if the companies won't support Rambus, they can, quoting from the memo, "buy Rambus and dump it", watch and wait or join SDRAM and make Rambus' technology public domain. Still a patent troll?

They started to produce rambus while DDR was becomming mainstream after this meeting. They let the big producers make them for a while, then claimed all the ideas were theirs and somehow tied it all back to rambus. Thats a patent troll. Of course longs have "proven" otherwise....JEDEC stole RMBS IP!!!! (hogwash)

Wrong wrong wrong. In fact, Micron helped the FTC file its 7-year case against Rambus for this exact anti-competitive behavior. The result? The FTC wasted millions of taxpayer dollars fighting Rambus, and decided that Rambus was guilty before they even held trial. The FTC became the plantiff, the judge and the jury! So what happened? The FTC got its ass handed to them by its own lead judge. They weren't happy with this so they took the judge off the case and went to the appeals court. They lost. Then they went to the SUPREME court. That court dismissed everything and agreed with the appeals court that Rambus did nothing wrong. Still a patent troll?

FTC loses Rambus "patent ambush" Case.

...being pinned to the mat for destroying evidence is a death blow as evidenced in its current stock price

Overly dramatic are we? Did you even read the legal ruling? As a refresher, in the Hynix case, Hynix was found guilty of infringing patents related to SDRAM and DDR-RAM and the court stated that Rambus document retention policy was normal. Micron's case didn't get that far because the court ruled that Rambus destroyed documents in bad faith and that their patents are invalid because of it. Both cases got sent to the CAFC (federal appeals court) at the same time. The decision that came out from a 5-judge panel, a mixed 3-2 against Rambus, that it did indeed destroy documents improperly, however, it was not to the level (re: Arthur Anderson) to warrant invalidating its patent or pursuing royalties.

Buried underneath the finding that Rambus destroyed documents improperly, which seemed to be grab all the headlines, is that the Court of Appeals went on to uphold the California court's findings that Rambus' patents were valid and infringed. This is a strong finding in Rambus favor. Hynix had asked the Court of Appeals to find Rambus' patents invalid on several grounds, all of which the Court of Appeals rejected. I've been harping all along that even if Rambus got an unfavorable decision about document destruction, it was not at the level of bad faith that would make its patents unenforceable. Both cases got sent back to the district court to clarification. Still a patent troll?

Losing money is no way to stay in business.

Rambus has been profitable before, but yes, it has lost money, and lost money in its current quarter. Litigation is expensive. Rambus has spent over half a billion dollars defending themselves, so it's quite funny you paint the picture of Rambus being the troll when all it wants to do is protect itself. Big corporations want to bankrupt Rambus. Look at this case for example. Rambus did not sue Hynix and Micron, it was the other way around. And actually, Hynix sued Rambus in California and a day after, Micron sued Rambus in Delaware! This dual-front coast-to-coast litigation strategy was meant to exhaust Rambus resources and make them fight a cross country fight.

Dual-Front Litigation

The only thing one should learn from this is some stocks, even if you understand it completely, that if it's wrangled in legal proceedings, it will take longer than anyone realize to resolve. But in this context, who is the bad guy?

Still a patent troll?

Its just a patent troll. The end.

The end of your argument? And what about Micron, Infineon, Hynix, etc. admitting to price-fixing RMBS, SDRAM and DDR... and receiving millions in fines and jail sentences. So these are the companies you're defending Rambus against?

DRAM Price-Fixing

So, I ask you once again... Is Rambus still a patent troll?

 

[Azurik]

haha i've seen this used in the 2008, 2009, 2010 threads. when i had some of their shares i'd be sitting by the computer waiting for news, waiting for the huge spike in the value of the shares so i could retire and have fun!

glad i sold. lot less undue stress, and based on their long term historical charts they've been flat for the past few years.

That's fine if you want a quick profit, but you could have taken advantage of this "important" news too and got in on the 10% spike that is happening now.

AT Trial is NOT delayed because of the recent mess. On track for early next month.

 

[zimu]

That's fine if you want a quick profit, but you could have taken advantage of this "important" news too and got in on the 10% spike that is happening now.

AT Trial is NOT delayed because of the recent mess. On track for early next month.

10% spike, but it's still a fair few bucks lower than what i sold for (and has been for ages). I don't day trade - rmbs may be great for day trading, but from a person going long it makes zero sense. i don't sit around all day (any more) waiting for rumors around the mood some judge is in and what his views are and how they'll effect the outcome of some huge important meeting happening tomorrow morning

 

[Azurik]

10% spike, but it's still a fair few bucks lower than what i sold for (and has been for ages). I don't day trade - rmbs may be great for day trading, but from a person going long it makes zero sense. i don't sit around all day (any more) waiting for rumors around the mood some judge is in and what his views are and how they'll effect the outcome of some huge important meeting happening tomorrow morning

That's perfectly fine, but it's not anyone's fault that you sat around all day There's a million things you could have done so you didn't need to. And if you think RMBS was just flat-lining, you could have bought covered calls and earned income all those months.

Listen, I'm not going to argue on this point. I'm happy you made money on a stock I recommended. You had a different selling strategy, and you like what you did. That's all that matters. Now you can go find stocks that don't make you nervous and don't have to take meds for your highs and lows of equity emotion

 

[zimu]

That's perfectly fine, but it's not anyone fault that you sat around all day There's a million things you could have just done so you didn't need to. And if you think RMBS was just flat-lining, you could have bought covered calls.

Listen, I'm not going to argue on this point. I'm happy you made money on a stock I recommended. You had a different selling strategy, and you like what you did. That's all that matters. Now you can go find stocks that don't make you nervous and don't have to take meds for your highs and lows of emotion

correct that's what i'm doing!

and yes, thank you for the 4% profit you made me on rmbs all in all, as cynical as i am about the stock, it was one of the 1st stocks i purchased and I guess I DID learn heaps about analysis and tracking information and financials during this period. so for this, i DO thank you (sincerely).

i just moved on to nicer ventures (e.g. aapl: currently 220% return, KFN, currently 200% return).

 

[AznMthr]

haha i've seen this used in the 2008, 2009, 2010 threads. when i had some of their shares i'd be sitting by the computer waiting for news, waiting for the huge spike in the value of the shares so i could retire and have fun!

glad i sold. lot less undue stress, and based on their long term historical charts they've been flat for the past few years.

dude i know you said it in jest, but what have you provided to the board? through azurick's picks i am way way way in the black. if you got onyl 4% in rmbs then you neither held long early enough or you are not a good trader. i don't hold rmbs, i trade it. everytime azurik has *important news* announced, i bought it during market afterhours and made 15-20% the next morning.

there's some good people active in the stock threads, but azurik is by far the best stock guru. + he's prolly the richest one here with the most to lose. he's hit about 80% of his calls on the money and his analysis whether you agree or disagree is well thought out and sound.