***Official*** 2011 Stock Market Thread

[Azurik]

IDCC on the move, GOOG buyout rumors.

Azurik you still in IDCC?

I just sold my remaining position and banked it into RMBS. IDCC could go up further as some valuations for a buy-out are high (almost too high), but RMBS is in the middle of a very interesting AT case that FINALLY got underway. I was able to attend some sessions and have a good feeling on it. A lot of truths and lies are surfacing and it is not looking good for the memory manufacturers. The only thing I'm concerned about is most of this stuff seems like it's above the jury's head, but the deception and lies from the MMs are clear.

RMBS is either a <$10 stock or a cash behemoth after this.

 

[richardycc]

anyone playing Z IPO?

 

[HopJokey]

I just sold my remaining position and banked it into RMBS. IDCC could go up further as some valuations for a buy-out are high (almost too high), but RMBS is in the middle of a very interesting AT case that FINALLY got underway. I was able to attend some sessions and have a good feeling on it. A lot of truths and lies are surfacing and it is not looking good for the memory manufacturers. The only thing I'm concerned about is most of this stuff seems like it's above the jury's head, but the deception and lies from the MMs are clear.

RMBS is either a <$10 stock or a cash behemoth after this.

Apparently AAPL is rumored to be bidding on IDCC as well. Thing is going nuts again in the last 1+ hour or so.

 

[Azurik]

Selling out of SGAE tomorrow A.M. for a 22% gain in 8 days. Congrats to those who got in!

 

[cirrrocco]

anyone playing Z IPO?

I am for sure, but when is it gonna get listed?

 

[RGUN]

What type of returns are you guys seeing long term with these relatively short term holding strategies? I've been trading since October or so and have been doing really well. My initial investment capital has tripled (almost), I have funded my investment account on 3 other occasions and have generally done well. Including my new capital my main account has a market value double the book. I started an account for my SO and have her up 27&#37; in about 2 months.

Is short term holding working out for you guys in the long term? I probably do 2 to 6 trades a week. These past few weeks it has been the same few companies over and over capturing their market fluctuations (some up to 15%). I get the feeling that I cant sustain this pace, just based on my risk tolerance and the amount of money I am now managing. (Still small amount, but large for me)

I'm tempted to just put it in a dividend paying vehicle and stop watching it all day.

Any advice from someone with more experience?

Thanks

 

[JS80]

What type of returns are you guys seeing long term with these relatively short term holding strategies? I've been trading since October or so and have been doing really well. My initial investment capital has tripled (almost), I have funded my investment account on 3 other occasions and have generally done well. Including my new capital my main account has a market value double the book. I started an account for my SO and have her up 27% in about 2 months.

Is short term holding working out for you guys in the long term? I probably do 2 to 6 trades a week. These past few weeks it has been the same few companies over and over capturing their market fluctuations (some up to 15%). I get the feeling that I cant sustain this pace, just based on my risk tolerance and the amount of money I am now managing. (Still small amount, but large for me)

I'm tempted to just put it in a dividend paying vehicle and stop watching it all day.

Any advice from someone with more experience?

Thanks

2007-2009 I lost ~$100k actively trading. In 2010 I made ~$150k actively trading. So far 2011 I've made $10k.

I've been beating the market significantly in my retirement accounts which I don't "actively" trade because of two factors:
1) I gambled and got lucky - I went 100% cash before Lehman went down
2) I came back in mid 2010, had some lucky stock picks thanks to BP spill

IMO short term trading is a fool's game. I honestly don't know why I actively trade. When I hit it big I plan on buying only muni bonds (I hope).

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

2007-2009 I lost ~$100k actively trading. In 2010 I made ~$150k actively trading. So far 2011 I've made $10k.

I've been beating the market significantly in my retirement accounts which I don't "actively" trade because of two factors:
1) I gambled and got lucky - I went 100&#37; cash before Lehman went down
2) I came back in mid 2010, had some lucky stock picks thanks to BP spill

IMO short term trading is a fool's game. I honestly don't know why I actively trade. When I hit it big I plan on buying only muni bonds (I hope).

You sound like my father in law. Somehow he was one of hte early people to get scared and got out. But was to afraid to get back in when he really should have .... Dow 8000.

Not a criticism, just saying.

As an aside for value investors .... the understanding of the psychology behind why people did not invest when the Dow was at 8000 is paramount. if you understand the psychology, you will not be afraid next time such opportunities appear.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I mentioned SD a while back. Just informing people that Prem Watsa is selling it now. He made a nice chunk of change on it. SD is in the mid-low $11s right now.

 

[richardycc]

I am for sure, but when is it gonna get listed?

It came out yesterday...I think it went as high as $60 then it tanked. like all IPOs, the best time to buy it was at closing yesterday than sell it pre market or right at open today.

 

[zimu]

Sigh. I bought it at $9.50 in December and sold it off in the low $10.xx range. It then went to $12 or $13. Nice to see it back down.

I'd be very very cautious about ING or any other banks right now. ING just sold off their American division, I believe, as required by their bail-out package. Greece may (will?) have to "selective default", Italy is on the train to the shitter, then there's Spain, Ireland, Portugal, the entire EU, etc. Let's not forget the game of chicken going on in the good'ole US of A (I foresee a last minute ass-kissing, political showmanship deal, so not really worried yet).

On the other hand, Bank of America (BAC) back in November last year managed to rise about 30% over a few months despite having unsettled mortgage claims, litigation, etc. and looming debit/credit fee restrictions. Oh, then it crashed back to pre-November 2010 levels over the past few months.

In short: it could pop a few percent, or it could take another huge dump.

it went up quite a bit! Cashing out my 18% gain this afternoon.

 

[manlymatt83]

it went up quite a bit! Cashing out my 18% gain this afternoon.

Define "it"

 

[zimu]

Define "it"

sorry, wasn't clear in the quote. ING.

 

[woodman1999]

Question: MedcoHealth (MHS) is being bought by ExpressScripts for $29B or roughly $71 per share. While the stock price has certainly jumped today, how come it's not closer to $71 per share that Express is offering? Maybe it's just me, but it seems to be a no brainer buy as long as it's under $71 (given you make less and less as you buy closer to the take out price).

 

[endervalentine]

Anyone holding IDCC, thoughts on when to off load it?

 

[HopJokey]

Anyone holding IDCC, thoughts on when to off load it?

I'm holding IDCC, I'm waiting for a buyout to occur.

Estimates have it anywhere from $75-200 based on whether a nasty bidding war will occur between AAPL/GOOG/QCOM/etc.

Of course the short term risk is that any deal falls through or is simply a rumor.

 

[endervalentine]

I'm holding IDCC, I'm waiting for a buyout to occur.

Estimates have it anywhere from $75-200 based on whether a nasty bidding war will occur between AAPL/GOOG/QCOM/etc.

Of course the short term risk is that any deal falls through or is simply a rumor.

ok, thanks ... given that I'm not holding that many share, unfortunately, I'll hold for a buyout. thanks!

 

[Imp]

it went up quite a bit! Cashing out my 18% gain this afternoon.

Geeez... It is up. Over 16% since Tuesday. Not liking the European debt and Greece "will" default thing.

So, instead I bought some C, which is up over 5% since 2 days ago. Unfortunately, I don't feel comfortable putting it all in with the US default thing hanging around, so I only have a "half-position". Oh well, better than nothing.

 

[zimu]

Geeez... It is up. Over 16&#37; since Tuesday. Not liking the European debt and Greece "will" default thing.

So, instead I bought some C, which is up over 5% since 2 days ago. Unfortunately, I don't feel comfortable putting it all in with the US default thing hanging around, so I only have a "half-position". Oh well, better than nothing.

i'm hoping for good things with C. I purchased quite a chunk back in sept '10 when it was just under 40, saw it shoot up to 50+. sold of a tinsy bit back then but thought i'd just go long - I picture C much much higher post depression era. of course then saw the big slump and its only now gathering momentum again.

 

[Imp]

i'm hoping for good things with C. I purchased quite a chunk back in sept '10 when it was just under 40, saw it shoot up to 50+. sold of a tinsy bit back then but thought i'd just go long - I picture C much much higher post depression era. of course then saw the big slump and its only now gathering momentum again.

I thought C would go to $6.00 pre-split, but slowly caught up on some reading (and grew a brain). They sold off a LOT of their company while restructuring, and their P/E (trailing year?) is about 13-ish or something. They do have growth in the Asian markets though, so that counts for something. Below $40, I feel safe buying it, and expect maybe to see $45 again. Chances are $50 is a longer-term possibility.

I want to get back into BAC after losing 20%, but the whole mortgage thing is just way too f*cked up and high risk. Safer going with C or even JPM.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

With banks/financials, you have to look at quality first. You can get the best of the best banks/financials today on sale. Don't gamble with C or BAC. USB and WFC are the best big banks. Buy those. My money is where my mouth is. I own a sliver of USB and 25&#37; of my money is in WFC. I am thinking about putting 10% or so into USB.

 

[Aharami]

^ not questioning you, but what makes you say that USB and WFC are the best banks out there right now? just wondering your reasoning behind it

 

[lothar]

Question: MedcoHealth (MHS) is being bought by ExpressScripts for $29B or roughly $71 per share. While the stock price has certainly jumped today, how come it's not closer to $71 per share that Express is offering? Maybe it's just me, but it seems to be a no brainer buy as long as it's under $71 (given you make less and less as you buy closer to the take out price).

I can answer this. Lots of speculation and many things.

This merger will only save about $1 billion in efficiencies/synergies according to management. Is it really worth it? Not sure if it is or not, but saving $1 billion on $110+ billion worth of revenue (0.9%) doesn't really mean much. These contracts are negotiated on a multi-year basis. I don't expect to see the $1 billion worth of savings anytime less than within the next 3-5 years. Investors of CVS/Caremark have gained NOTHING since their own merger, but that's a long story that should be discussed another time.
Will the regulators allow this to go through? If I remember correctly, the FTC prevented ESRX from buying Caremark in 2007 due to monopolistic concerns, which lead to CVS automatically winning Caremark. After the merger is completed, they would be #1 and have a 31% market share.
This business will now be about a 31% dominant player, a semi-dominant 15% player, another player around the 8-10% range or so, with dozens of local/regional players in the 4% range or less that amount to essentially nothing.

Full Disclosure: I own stock in ESRX and have for many years. It's one of my top 10 positions. Do a search of "ESRX" here on the forums and you will see all my posts associated with it dating back to 2007-2008. ^_^

I doubt employers, patients, and healthcare plans will see any realized "savings" from this merger.
I am "neutral" on this deal and will keep my stock in ESRX. I wouldn't go rushing to buy MHS despite the fact that it's trading at a steep discount from the merger price due to regulatory risk since I already own ESRX and can use that as leverage, but that strategy won't work for you since you don't own it?

 

[Ms. DICKINSON]

Which broker do you guys use? I have accounts with Sharebuilder and Zecco. I am a light trader and most of my holdings are with Zecco but now they seem to be scamming their users. I'd like to bail. Preferably no monthly dues and minimum.

 

[zimu]

Which broker do you guys use? I have accounts with Sharebuilder and Zecco. I am a light trader and most of my holdings are with Zecco but now they seem to be scamming their users. I'd like to bail. Preferably no monthly dues and minimum.

how is zecco scamming users?

i have some holdings at zecco but haven't traded with them in ages. i primarily use sogotrade.