Sorry I was probably a bit too skeptical but from what little I've read like the following description from google finance:
I just don't see the appeal for a print/specialty paper company especially with all of the newspapers going out of business or going online only. I see less and less newspapers in peoples front yards every day. I don't see that changing but maybe I'm missing something in regards to this company.
Imp
Lifer
- Feb 8, 2000
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It's the Tea Party bullshit I'm concerned about. I'm extra jaded because my city elected our very own "super fiscal conservative who was born into money, never finished college, but will fight for the blue-collar worker".
Two weeks till deadline, crashy crashy today, hope some blips of good news gives me a chance to pull out a bit more.
I bought puts shortly after open today... caught QQQ's high. Already they are up a ton. Thinking of selling
I bought puts shortly after open today... caught QQQ's high. Already they are up a ton. Thinking of selling
Eek, broke below $57. Now I'm really tempted to sell. Just set a stop-loss (my broker doesn't allow trailing stops on options, boo)
- Sep 29, 2004
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It sells lumber for residential construction and paper products for newspapers and magzines. The breakdown is available but I don't remember what it is off hand. Their reach is global and remember that not all of the world is wired. I think their sales for newspaper are actually up this year.
They also own the land that the trees are on and tree farm. They log an area and replant. Sustainability! Not sure if this is 100% of the land they log but it is atleast part of it. Thus why my research is not 100% complete. Complete enough that this is not important.
It's a housing play along with a restructuring play. And it seems that everyone is not seeing hte opportunity here. This is not a stock that a screener will find. You have to read annual reports and more to see what is actually occuring at ABH. Once you see what is happening and what the cash flow statement might look like in 2 or 3 years you might find your jaw being scraped off the floor. Takes some work to see what is going on though.
NOTE: If i said refi in previous posts, I meant restructuring. Alot of their debt simply disappeared (is disappearing) among other changes that are shockingly good.
Prem Watsa is just icing on the cake. For the money he has in ABH, he must see the chances of failure at near zero. 15% of his portfolio is in ABH and he holds 41 stocks.
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What is AAPL worth and why? What will their market position be in 5, 10, 20 years and what will the accompanying financial results be?
How will Tablets from competitors effect their revenue stream in 1,2,5,10,20 years?
Pliablemoose
Lifer
- Oct 11, 1999
- 25,195
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????
Hell, if I knew that, I'd be a billionaire.
They're positioned to do very well over the next few years though. And recent patent rulings suggest at the least, Apple will be paid licensing fees for devices using Android.
Apple stock has been one of those easy picks, buy it a week before earnings, and make some fast $.
You can likely make 3-5% if you buy today and sell tomorrow...
http://allthingsd.com/20110719/apple-earnings-likely-to-wow/
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/c...le+inc/observations.aspx?click=home&ID=107179
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AAPL is trading 11x EBITDA. I'm surprised you're not on here touting it as a great stock.
Most analysts can't even accurately project one quarter ahead when it comes to AAPL, I'd be a fool to think I knew the answer. But I still think there's a ton of upside potential.
The main things hurting the iPhones market share has been availability and pricing. Finally getting on Verizon was a huge first step (surveys show that Android's growth in US market share halted almost completely after Verizon started selling iPhones), and adding Sprint and T-Mobile will only help. China Mobile and China Telecom are likely to sign on very soon (with their almost 700 million combined mobile subscribers; currently iPhones are only available to about 200 million in China). A cheaper model will also help them compete in price against Android phones.
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So, no one knows what AAPL is worth, just participating in a perpetual game of coin flip with a 50/50 chance of winning? While giving a slice of each transaction to a broker. Brilliant.
A best fit line of AAPL FCF over hte past 10 years gives FCF of $11.6B. TTM is an impressive $25B though.
Current market cap is $345B. So, you are paying 14x to 29x FCF depending on how you want to normalize things.
Nice ballance sheet but there is continual shareholder dilution every year.
Ya, I have no interest in it. Find me something under 10x FCF and we'll talk.
A best fit line of AAPL FCF over hte past 10 years gives FCF of $11.6B. TTM is an impressive $25B though.
Current market cap is $345B. So, you are paying 14x to 29x FCF depending on how you want to normalize things.
Nice ballance sheet but there is continual shareholder dilution every year.
Ya, I have no interest in it. Find me something under 10x FCF and we'll talk.
Imp
Lifer
- Feb 8, 2000
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Bigger than GOOG and MSFT at this point (almost as big as both combined). If it were at $310 like a few weeks ago, I'd buy. At $375, I'll just sit tight.
BAC is a turd for the foreseeable future, but after a few days of panic selling ($8 billion loss may be priced in, but still a "surprising" number), could see a pop.
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Not sure what GOOG and MSFT matter in a discussion about AAPL. If one bank offers you a 5% interest rate on a $10,000 CD and another offers you 2% on $20,000 do you get the 2% CD because it is "bigger".
Looking at AAPL and MSFT, that is what you are doing. If the stock market did not exist and all you had were the financail statments, AAPL would have a private party value of maybe 10% more than MSFT right now. And that is debatable. If you use last years numbers instead of TTM numbers, they are fairly closely matched. But the value of GOOG and MSFT combined is much greater than AAPL alone.
Still though, this is tech. For all anyone knows, the Nook will replace the iPad in 4 years. Then what? I have ABH. Ya, a boring lumber/paper company. I can tell you what though. I'll still be making paper and lumber in 100 years. I know what to expect from revenues and FCF for the next 100 years. I play russian roulette with a revolver having 1 million chambers, not 6
People speculating with relative valuations again. I guess that's why people say there is another tech bubble.
Looking at AAPL and MSFT, that is what you are doing. If the stock market did not exist and all you had were the financail statments, AAPL would have a private party value of maybe 10% more than MSFT right now. And that is debatable. If you use last years numbers instead of TTM numbers, they are fairly closely matched. But the value of GOOG and MSFT combined is much greater than AAPL alone.
Still though, this is tech. For all anyone knows, the Nook will replace the iPad in 4 years. Then what? I have ABH. Ya, a boring lumber/paper company. I can tell you what though. I'll still be making paper and lumber in 100 years. I know what to expect from revenues and FCF for the next 100 years. I play russian roulette with a revolver having 1 million chambers, not 6
People speculating with relative valuations again. I guess that's why people say there is another tech bubble.
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Except AAPL is sitting on over 70B in cash and short term securities. Projected income for FY2012 to be 39B (projection by an analyst who has one of the best track records in AAPL estimates).
How much room does MSFT have to grow from where they are right now? The smartphone market is just getting started, the tablet market is in it's infancy. AAPL is positioned to own the lion's share of profit from those lines. While computer sales are stagnant, Macs are gaining market share (and there's still a ton of ground to gain with them being only 10% of the market).
How much room does MSFT have to grow from where they are right now? The smartphone market is just getting started, the tablet market is in it's infancy. AAPL is positioned to own the lion's share of profit from those lines. While computer sales are stagnant, Macs are gaining market share (and there's still a ton of ground to gain with them being only 10% of the market).
- Sep 29, 2004
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I exit the conversation on impossible to know futures.
FWIW: Take 1000 analysts. Tell them to predict Income. Take those that were right (500). Do the same thing. 250 are right. ...... eventually you have one guy out of 1000 with an impressive track record.
Analysts are good at one thing. Telling you what has happened in the past. If one knows the same thing everyone else does, what is their advantage? Anything trading at 20x FCF should be looked upon with great caution. I'll put up some bonds against AAPL any day. I don't want 4,5,6% gains though.
FWIW: Take 1000 analysts. Tell them to predict Income. Take those that were right (500). Do the same thing. 250 are right. ...... eventually you have one guy out of 1000 with an impressive track record.
Analysts are good at one thing. Telling you what has happened in the past. If one knows the same thing everyone else does, what is their advantage? Anything trading at 20x FCF should be looked upon with great caution. I'll put up some bonds against AAPL any day. I don't want 4,5,6% gains though.
lol haters gonna hate. I don't even own AAPL but it's not even close to being an expensive stock.
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