I'm not a banking analyst...Everything I read is public information.
Banks are too complex, however a few things can be inferred.
I am still looking for a financial stock...I regret selling AXP and ACF in May last year and still haven't found their replacement.
BBT was the closest bank I saw that I could stomach. I regret not buying when it was trading $22-23. I expect them to raise their dividend this year. STT was the second best I saw but then again the thing ran up before I even knew it.
All those people screaming "profits are not going to return"...I have news for you...They are here to stay.
If they have to get rid of free checking accounts or start charging monthly fees for debit cards holders that are free loading off the bank, they will do whatever it takes to protect their profits like any other business does.
I'm done buying shares for now but I still keep looking in case I find something that jumps at me.
The last major stock I bought was GRVY. Bought with an avg price of about $1.56/share as I stated a month ago in last year's thread.
As a general rule, when companies and industries are out of favor, that's when I consider them for investment, and if I see nothing wrong, I go in.
I am currently looking at the for-profit education industry and might consider an investment in either APOL or COCO if I do end up making a choice in that industry.
As much as I hate Grocers, I also might have to start looking at them but I need to dodge the landmines(such as SVU and other "value traps") if I intend to be successful there.
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
Hey value guys,
Anyone interested in grocery stores? Super Value (SVU) took a 10% hit today. Also, Safeway (SWY) is down over the past few days. Both missed estimates.
I own SWY and on an additional dip tomorrow I will be adding SVU. When you look at FCF, both are worth consideration. SVUs balance sheet is not the most beautiful thing though. I am not entirely sure that I want to buy SVU because of it but at 5-6x FCF it is hard to say no.
EDIT: No way I am buying into SVU. The balance sheet is really that bad.
EDIT2: Also took a look at Kroger (KR). It doesn't look underpriced. If anything it is overpriced. I am happy with my SWY investment though.
Anyone interested in grocery stores? Super Value (SVU) took a 10% hit today. Also, Safeway (SWY) is down over the past few days. Both missed estimates.
I own SWY and on an additional dip tomorrow I will be adding SVU. When you look at FCF, both are worth consideration. SVUs balance sheet is not the most beautiful thing though. I am not entirely sure that I want to buy SVU because of it but at 5-6x FCF it is hard to say no.
EDIT: No way I am buying into SVU. The balance sheet is really that bad.
EDIT2: Also took a look at Kroger (KR). It doesn't look underpriced. If anything it is overpriced. I am happy with my SWY investment though.
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. The two has nothing in common as far as business practice.
Imp
Lifer
- Feb 8, 2000
- 18,828
- 184
- 106
I've been in since it was $4.10. It's in unchared territory right now because the guberment finally sold its remaining stake in November (I think). It's been up past $4.50 since this sale.
It is exposed to sub-prime mortgage issues and pending lawsuits. However, IIRC, they made $2 billion profit in the last quarter. They use to be one of the biggest banks in the US, and have sold a LOT of their assets to repay the bailout and restructure. No dividend yet, although one is expected to be announced within the next year or two, and should help boost the price. Analysts have called it one of the 'better' bailout banks with the brightest outlooks.
I'm in it for the long haul, but it is a VERY slow and "stable" stock unlike AIG or BAC. Most days it swings +/- 1%, and breaks out every once in a while. Still, I'm considering selling my stake and waiting for a correction. What's keeping me is that the stock is completely unpredictable now since all previous trends were from when the government was still a major owner.
I held my nose and bought some SVU, and yes the debt is really that bad.
Definitely not your traditional value investment, this is probably more of a speculative play. Risk/Reward is high (on both fronts).
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/01/12/st-joe-fairholme-end-pact-that-limited-fund-managers-stake/
Bruce Berkowitz can now buy as many shares of St. Joe as he pleases.
Short sellers, beware of the short squeeze.
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
Well with all grocers, we have inflation coming. So prices will go up on the store shelves (along with their costs) but so long as profit margins remain cosntant, they will generate more cash while existing long term debt does not change. new debt is a different story though.
Azurik
Platinum Member
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
- 12
- 81
No one knows when CAFC is going to rule on the RMBS issue, but we've been having steady volume with an uptick in price with little regards to the overall markets.
Bought RMBS Feb $23 calls a couple of weeks ago that is really up due to the increase in volitility. Now if you can have a volume breakout from our trading range that seemed to last forever and a day...
Bought RMBS Feb $23 calls a couple of weeks ago that is really up due to the increase in volitility. Now if you can have a volume breakout from our trading range that seemed to last forever and a day...
What do you think about IDCC Azurik? A lot of the RMBS folks are in there as well. I'm sitting back from afar from IP type investments just watching and trying to learn.
Demo24
Diamond Member
- Aug 5, 2004
- 8,356
- 9
- 81
Yes, I will be doing my best at open. I was going to play puts on earnings anyway, but this news about Jobs makes my entry far more difficult. However it does give more potential action to the downside. Already slipped hard in Frankfurt, it should do the same tomorrow here when the markets open.
dullard
Elite Member
- May 21, 2001
- 26,040
- 4,680
- 126
I was personally thinking of shorting that bubble (short term play hoping to ride it down to the 200s). But, alas, I'm probably too late with this news.
dullard
Elite Member
- May 21, 2001
- 26,040
- 4,680
- 126
$200s as in below $300 (like $290). Short term play only. I haven't made that plunge yet.
There just really isn't a good reason for it to triple in about a year. This thing has overshot its "equilibrium" point. But, with all irrational stock market moves, sometimes buying high (and hoping for higher) is better than selling high.
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