***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

[JS80]

Do or die for the euro http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jt6BMLbbL353kzg8BK_8Y4-CxMQQD9FJGEB82

 

[manlymatt83]

JS80: Are you bearish now? I'm thinking instead of buying FAZ, I'll just buy gold.

 

[hiromizu]

Matt, too late to be that bearish now IMO. I'd wait for another few percentage drop then go long again, if that even happens. I haven't sold a thing and have a few g's in cash to DCA my existing portfolio. I don't think we'll see another major collapse like 2 years ago but investors are definitely still spooked and cautious. The economic numbers are improving and that would definitely put a lid on your FAZ upside. I could be wrong of course.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Looks like a nice rally on Monday, DOW futures +150 NAS +32 S&P +20

IMF approved Greece bailout, Eurozone meeting to stabilize currency.

I still hold those LVS 25 calls as a fun speculative play (I only have 2), but Im down down about 60% on them after the market got clobbered. Rally time baby!

 

[JS80]

JS80: Are you bearish now? I'm thinking instead of buying FAZ, I'll just buy gold.

TOo late to short. The play was to go long on Friday. I went long GS, FSLR, NBG, and S when they all crapped out on the gamble that the EU would do something this weekend. Stocks should gap up on Monday. Gold should sell off.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Looks like a nice rally on Monday, DOW futures +150 NAS +32 S&P +20

IMF approved Greece bailout, Eurozone meeting to stabilize currency.

I still hold those LVS 25 calls as a fun speculative play (I only have 2), but Im down down about 60% on them after the market got clobbered. Rally time baby!

Damn futures up +400 now, Nas +80!! We're gonna be rich!!

(unless you bought puts )

 

[JMapleton]

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...e-paring-investments-as-u-s-stocks-slump.html

 

[Lamont Burns]

I threw 18k into equities Fri at like 10 AM. Hoping to casssssh in.

 

[The-Noid]

Damn futures up +400 now, Nas +80!! We're gonna be rich!!

(unless you bought puts )

You always by puts when complacency sets in. <15 vix, 100&#37; covered, 15-20 vix, 75% covered, 20-25 vix 50% covered, 25+ vix 25% covered. Might be time to lighten up on some of the puts later in the week though. Always be rules based.

 

[halik]

You always by puts when complacency sets in. <15 vix, 100&#37; covered, 15-20 vix, 75% covered, 20-25 vix 50% covered, 25+ vix 25% covered. Might be time to lighten up on some of the puts later in the week though. Always be rules based.

Nassim Taleb has a fund doing that IIRC.

I don't really like using a VIX as anything other than an indicator; when you look at the actual definition it's essentially just telling you the demand for out of the money options.

 

[The-Noid]

Nassim Taleb has a fund doing that IIRC.

I don't really like using a VIX as anything other than an indicator; when you look at the actual definition it's essentially just telling you the demand for out of the money options.

Lots of funds are doing a similar strategy since the VIX has come down over the last year.

VIX is an OK indicator. Your definition is fairly right on. The only thing I don't like is it isn't a fully transparent synthetic and any contract can be added or subtracted on a daily/monthly basis.

 

[The-Noid]

Internet Bubble-->Real Estate Bubble-->Government Bubble-->Hyperinflation-->Revolution

This may actually be close to the truth.

 

[richardycc]

is this rally losing steam..I don't see a second wave of buyers coming in yet.

 

[The-Noid]

Spreads have come in quite a bit on HY and EM debt. (626 on HY to 580) That is more important than the market rally. There was a lack of funding last week in Europe and I think we have already seen 10.6B in issuance today which tops all of last week. Euro banks balance sheets are a bit more free than they were at this time last week. Having Trichet open up the swap lines was the big story, to actually admit there was a dollar funding problem. It was fairly obvious by where actual borrowing costs were in Europe last week there was a funding problem. Banks can't make money borrowing at 125 bps over the Swap curve which is already a AA- minus index in this day and age.

My guess is we ride higher into the close from the +40 level we are at now.

 

[halik]

Lots of funds are doing a similar strategy since the VIX has come down over the last year.

VIX is an OK indicator. Your definition is fairly right on. The only thing I don't like is it isn't a fully transparent synthetic and any contract can be added or subtracted on a daily/monthly basis.

We can't use VIX for any sort of analytical work here, since it's just a goofy weighted average of price deltas on out of money options (with a skew to correct for unlimited upside in the underlying). The number itself doesn't really mean anything.

It was a good buying opportunity in both IG and HY, depending on what your needs are.

 

[Slew Foot]

Internet Bubble-->Real Estate Bubble-->Government Bubble-->Hyperinflation-->Revolution

This may actually be close to the truth.

People laughed at me when I first put that up as my sig. They also laughed at me when I told them in 2005/6 that the housing market was about to crash and to short the homebuilders

 

[KDKPSJ]

lol.. DNDN is in red again. By looking at level II, I see some large buy orders (compare to sell orders) contantly placed in, and in matter of seconds, they are so easily fulfilled at Bid. It just feels so sux to see it keep bleeding like that, especially in 300+ green day.

 

[Azurik]

lol.. DNDN is in red again. By looking at level II, I see some large buy orders (compare to sell orders) contantly placed in, and in matter of seconds, they are so easily fulfilled at Bid. It just feels so sux to see it keep bleeding like that, especially in 300+ green day.

I used the spike up this morning to sell covered calls to make income while waiting.

Rumor is that they're going to offer a secondary... that may be pressuring the stock (that and the enormous amount of insider selling after FDA approval).

 

[FelixDeCat]

U.S. single-stock circuit breakers done deal: source


On Tuesday May 11, 2010, 9:35 am

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Adopting new, U.S. market-wide circuit breakers to halt precipitous drops in individual stocks is "a done deal," a source said on Tuesday, five days after a severe market plunge rattled investors and perplexed regulators.

The circuit breakers would likely trip when individual stocks fell by a set amount in a set time frame. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission hosted exchange heads at a meeting Monday, and said afterward the parties agreed to a framework that would strengthen circuit breakers.

 

[allisolm]

This thread is about the stock market 2010 - not about post WWII hyperinflation or who contributed to Obama's campaign. It's certainly not about calling people commies or facists or suggesting implausible sexual acts. I have removed those posts and ask that you all please stay civil and on point.

Thanks.

Admin allisolm

 

[Azurik]

suggesting implausible sexual acts

allisolm, I tend to make things implausible very possible and likely... just saying

Thanks for keeping this thread clean though.

 

[PCMarine]

Nice to see some strength in biotech today; my shares in DNDN and KERX up considerably. Though looks like AEZS corrected after its buoyancy the last few days.

 

[Jassi]

FWIW, I'm sorry for my part in it.

 

[richardycc]

bought a .PK stock today....like I said before, it's extremely hard to find a .PK or .OB winner. It's like trying to win the lottery, I am just trying to sell my ticket to another sucker for more than I paid before the drawing.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I got a funny feeling we retrace 10,350 again on the DOW. This is the time of year stocks typically fall. Im neutral right now and in cash.