***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

[JMapleton]

Hey, when did you get your CFA charter? Ohh wait, I'm sure you don't have one. Better yet, you work in banking, right? Ohh wait, I'm sure you don't.

I frequently comment on stocks online and I do not wish to reveal my profession or qualifications for legal reasons, but if I did, you'd feel pretty dumb right now. Everything on here is my personal opinion.

Even better, why don't you show me a peer reviewed empirical and statistically relevent study that shows superior long-term returns from TA.

Impossible question to answer and misleading question, most effective technical analysis is not consistent over long periods of time and most popular forms of TA are nonsense. Bollinger bands and MACD is what the average Joe knows about, but most successful TA is done with custom made computer trading systems written from scratch for individual stocks or sectors.

The problem with most studies is this: They use one or a group of popular methods over an entire range of stocks.

Fact: Certain methods of trading only works are certain times for certain stocks and sectors.

Better yet, tell that to Buffet's bank account.

Has nothing to do with this discussion. There is more than one way to make money in the markets.

TA is bullshit. There isn't one peer reviewed, empirical study, that has shown superior long-term gains for TA over FA or other methods.

See comment above. All TA does not work all the time for every stock.

Looking in the rearview mirror for value is a fools proposition and the market has shown it.

Incorrect. The stock market never changes because humans never change and humans create the prices, the bubbles and the trenches. Everything that is happening now has happened before numerous times, although not exact, it's happen in a similar and predictable way.

Go ahead, focus on some bullshit "resistance level" while the basic fact remains that RMBS has several cashflows about to come into PV, resulting in higher valuations. Yet, let's ignore REALITY and focus on historical stock movements that have no basis on present valuations.

Let me guess, you've never even read Seth Klarmann?

Iron clad fact: Modest temporary changes in fundamentals of a company are not reliable predictors for short term prices.

Secondly, TA should never be used without taking into consideration changes in economic conditions or fundamental conditions of a company. TA should never be used alone.

You and those who study got it all wrong because you misunderstand how and when TA should be used. You imply that every method of TA is always valid for every stock and is applied all in the manner.

TA is like a martial art, it's to be applied different ways at different time against different objects.

Is it not something you can study because it's dependent on the judgement of the one using it, that's why there is no study proving it to be effective.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Thread hijackers/trolls WILL receive time off for bad behaivor.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I hope everybody is buying this market dip. I think Las Vegas Sands will hit $19 after earnings and reach $30 this year.

Mark my words - currently $16.28 and will hit $30 before 12/31/2010.

** edit: I should also add, if earnings are bad, look for $12. But Im hoping earnings are good. I might play both sides and buy calls and puts and just pray for volitility.

 

[sandmanwake]

I hope everybody is buying this market dip. I think Las Vegas Sands will hit $19 after earnings and reach $30 this year.

Mark my words - currently $16.28 and will hit $30 before 12/31/2010.

Weren't they in danger of going bankrupt just a year or two ago?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Weren't they in danger of going bankrupt just a year or two ago?

Yes, but liquidity became scare for thousands and thousands of companies because of the global credit meltdown. Only the strong survive and LVS made it. You could have snapped up those shares $1.38 each and rode them to $20+ if you had the guts.

My brother made a killing last year buying Avis (CAR) for .75 each and still holds them. They have traded over $11 recently. He is sitting on $18,000 in paper profits.

The sad thing was I tried to talk him out of it because buying stocks near bankruptcy is very risky, but he said he put very little into it (which also limited his upside). Oh well.

 

[MotF Bane]

I think I'm going to start with Apple and Rambus this week, before Wednesday for Apple ofc. Not a lot to put in, but it's a start.

 

[InverseOfNeo]

The sad thing was I tried to talk him out of it because buying stocks near bankruptcy is very risky, but he said he put very little into it (which also limited his upside). Oh well.

Heh I feel the same way. My mom bought Ford when it was like $3-4. I thought it was going down like the rest of them. She tries to rub it in my face but all I have to tell her is that I have Apple and I'm cost averaged at about $90 and her response is "why are you buying expensive stocks?". Fair question but I like to invest in companies that I am confident I can profit from long term. Ford was too speculative for me.

 

[LegendKiller]

Yes, but liquidity became scare for thousands and thousands of companies because of the global credit meltdown. Only the strong survive and LVS made it. You could have snapped up those shares $1.38 each and rode them to $20+ if you had the guts.

My brother made a killing last year buying Avis (CAR) for .75 each and still holds them. They have traded over $11 recently. He is sitting on $18,000 in paper profits.

The sad thing was I tried to talk him out of it because buying stocks near bankruptcy is very risky, but he said he put very little into it (which also limited his upside). Oh well.

I was never really worried about CAR/DTG/HTZ. IMHO, they were going to be able to refi their deals, albeit at higher prices and enhancement, but they would get them done.

The biggest problem was that they used BBB enhancement plus a monoline wrap to get to a AAA/AA bond. However, after the sureties folded they couldn't get the AAA/AA rating. It took a while of agency jokeying to get them to accept a AAA structure and pricing sucked, but they got the deals done without TALF. I do believe TALF was key in getting the market unstuck though.

There was also a ton of bank-debt out to the rental companies, I don't think the banks wanted to take the risk of them folding.

I made a killing on the rental play. It was pretty fun.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Fixed it for you.

LOL, I disagree with you on some things, but yeah a chart is like a map that shows where you've been, not where you're going...

Back on topic:

Man APPL has been a flipping roller coaster, I'm hoping for blowout earnings tomorrow after hours and a killer product announcement on Weds.

The hype is insane, I'll be glad when it's over.

 

[MotF Bane]

LOL, I disagree with you on some things, but yeah a chart is like a map that shows where you've been, not where you're going...

Back on topic:

Man APPL has been a flipping roller coaster, I'm hoping for blowout earnings tomorrow after hours and a killer product announcement on Weds.

The hype is insane, I'll be glad when it's over.

I'm hoping for a nosedive tomorrow, my bank hasn't transferred things yet. :awe:

 

[Pliablemoose]

I'm hoping for a nosedive tomorrow, my bank hasn't transferred things yet. :awe:

I dunno, I wouldn't count on it, short of Jobs dying, I think it's headed back up tomorrow, it got screwed because Deutsche Bank allowed it to fall off of it's "buy" rating after 6 months (that's the story anyway, the hedge funds manipulate the hell out of APPL)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35015585/

Funny how that happened right before Apple was poised to announce it's biggest earnings ever... Hmmm.

 

[Azurik]

I'm leaving for Belarus (White Russia) Wednesday, so I'll have limited times I can access the internet (it's a real vacation and I'm forcing myself not to get too attached to work or financial related items). Good luck to everyone, and see you when I get back!

 

[Pliablemoose]

I'm leaving for Belarus (White Russia) Wednesday, so I'll have limited times I can access the internet (it's a real vacation and I'm forcing myself not to get too attached to work or financial related items). Good luck to everyone, and see you when I get back!

Enjoy Azurk.

 

[hiromizu]

I'm leaving for Belarus (White Russia) Wednesday, so I'll have limited times I can access the internet (it's a real vacation and I'm forcing myself not to get too attached to work or financial related items). Good luck to everyone, and see you when I get back!

Enjoy. Belarus is an interesting place and is the mother of the most beautiful women on the planet.

 

[HopJokey]

I finally open a position in RMBS. Thanks for all the info guys, especially Azurik!

 

[KDKPSJ]

Enjoy your vacation, Azurik!

BTW, I really should sign up to IV to just use their "Ignore" feature as some bashers just never give up. RMBS up 6% and NVDA up 0% compare to where they were @ 2pm on Friday (right before ITC), and they (bashers) just buzz how ITC announcement was nothing. How annoying.

 

[Azurik]

Enjoy. Belarus is an interesting place and is the mother of the most beautiful women on the planet.

Not only beautiful, but with hearts of gold. The country itself is still very "old Soviet". The KGB still exists there and Condoleezza Rice once said it's one of the last "outpost of tyranny" that still exist. Getting a visa is a b*tch too. The people make up for it though, and I'm actually looking to the Eastern Europe adventure.

Funny you mention this, cause I'm actually dating a Belarusian girl I met here in Boston last summer while she was on a work-visa program. Knowing people there makes it so much easier on costs, finding an apartment, etc. The 6 girls and 2 guys we met were all great in helping set everything up.

And since this is technically ATOT, here are some pics this past summer!

BTW, I bought Feb 22.5 puts just in case armageddon hits the market while I'm away.

 

[Slew Foot]

Have fun in Belarus AZ!



I must say though, if you told me iN december that Samsung and Hyinx would settle, and that RMBS would win the ITC case, I would have thought the stock would at least be in the 40s by now. Stupid stock market

 

[Azurik]

Have fun in Belarus AZ!



I must say though, if you told me iN december that Samsung and Hyinx would settle, and that RMBS would win the ITC case, I would have thought the stock would at least be in the 40s by now. Stupid stock market

Me too, Slew Foot - we're on the same boat. Everytime Rambus has great news, it's in the face of a big down market. I used just earnings alone from the Samsung settlement, along with the cash flow they received. If we were to apply a 25 PE, Rambus' fair value would be $37.50 right now (Rambus has a huge tax carryover write-off that helps).

 

[hiromizu]

Those are some mighty sharp knees bro. All kidding aside, that's what I'm talking about. Good on you, she's a beauty.

BTW, I bought Feb 22.5 puts just in case armageddon hits the market while I'm away.

 

[Regs]

I got a stock that will blow your girls panties right off.

 

[richardycc]

I got a stock that will blow your girls panties right off.

do tell..always looking for stocks that will blow my girls panties right off.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Not only beautiful, but with hearts of gold.

I am jealous.

 

[IEC]

This thread has officially been hijacked, and is now about Belarussian women.

Stocks, damn it.

 

[Lamont Burns]

stop quoting the damn images