***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

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Azurik

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
I bought more, action is too muted in the face of a bad market. I think traders who left for the weekend before the news came out will trade this up on Monday.
 
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Jassi

Diamond Member
Sep 8, 2004
3,296
0
0
I know the opinion most people have of E*Trade but @ $1.66 pps, is it worth the risk? Seems like earnings next week will be a bust but there's been a lot of volatility in the market in the new year with tons of volume. Plus their provisions should keep dropping and whatever buzz they earn during the SuperBowl (I'm a skeptic on their new baby ads + social site strategy that they are following).

Disclosure - Long ETFC.

Edit - Volume should translate to an uptick in DARTS. And they are winding down the bank balance sheet fast.
 
Azurik

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Blueychan said:
It is dipping to 24.70ish. Curious what's the traders' sentiment at this moment?
Click to expand...

Nothing, the markets are getting killed towards the close. All the indices are at the lower lows. I think this is a watershed event. It will take some time for the market to appreciate how important this ruling is to the value of RMBS. Even so, I bet the CEO of nVidia and the CEO's of many other infringing companies know exactly how important this ruling is. Given that Judge Essex basically agreed with the ITC staff, I think it is very likely that the ITC commission will support this ruling. I also think the CAFC will uphold the ITC ruling. In August I also think the CAFC will uphold Judge Whyte's ruling and overturn Judge Robinson's ruling. Sooner or later, the AT trial will finally start and Rambus will clean the clock of Micron and Hynix. Rambus can take this ITC ruling and slap the PTO re-examiner upside the head with the Judge's findings. 2010 will be an especially bright year for Rambus.
 
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R

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
I own some ETFC April 1 calls, I paid 95cents when the stock was like ~1.94...just hope they get bought out soon, until then, it will probably trade between $1-2.
 
Azurik

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Brutal month for the market... I don't think it's been down this much since March of 2009. Luckily, I've been bearish for a while and don't have much exposure to the market - just select stocks.
 
E

eLiu

Diamond Member
Jun 4, 2001
6,407
1
0
richardycc said:
I own some ETFC April 1 calls, I paid 95cents when the stock was like ~1.94...just hope they get bought out soon, until then, it will probably trade between $1-2.
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I'm long etfc as well. I bought in late last fall around 1.55 b/c I'm not interested in the big banks (e.g. C) but if finance popped up I didn't want to be left out. ETFC also seemed like they'd have opportunities for growth and had been weathering the economy well. So far I haven't really made anything but not lost anything either... can't complain too much.
 
S

snoopdoug1

Platinum Member
Jan 8, 2002
2,164
0
76
El Guaraguao said:
how bout some recommendations for some good online brokers for a newb?

hit me.
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Depending on your assets (if you have more than 25k across all your accounts) you can get 100 free trades per year at Wells Fargo with a PMA account.

I don't know much about the rest of them....
 
Azurik

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
JMapleton said:
RMBS = momo player's stock. It's like betting at the craps table with those momo players.
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If you've been following my stock thread for the past 4 years, you'd know it's no longer a momo stock - especially in light of what has happened this past year.
 
JMapleton

JMapleton

Diamond Member
Nov 19, 2008
4,179
2
81
Azurik said:
If you've been following my stock thread for the past 4 years, you'd know it's no longer a momo stock - especially in light of what has happened this past year.
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Are you long on RMBS? If you are, that's daring. It's hitting a quadruple top (April 2008, Feb 2007, Nov 2006).
 
L

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
JMapleton said:
Glad to see some opinions from some experienced market experts. *rolls eyes*

It works, but it's misunderstood and yes much of it does not work, but much of it does.
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Hey, when did you get your CFA charter? Ohh wait, I'm sure you don't have one. Better yet, you work in banking, right? Ohh wait, I'm sure you don't.

Even better, why don't you show me a peer reviewed empirical and statistically relevent study that shows superior long-term returns from TA.

Ohh wait, IT DOESN'T EXIST.

Better yet, tell that to Buffet's bank account.


TA is bullshit. There isn't one peer reviewed, empirical study, that has shown superior long-term gains for TA over FA or other methods.

Looking in the rearview mirror for value is a fools proposition and the market has shown it.

Go ahead, focus on some bullshit "resistance level" while the basic fact remains that RMBS has several cashflows about to come into PV, resulting in higher valuations. Yet, let's ignore REALITY and focus on historical stock movements that have no basis on present valuations.

Let me guess, you've never even read Seth Klarmann?
 
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JMapleton

JMapleton

Diamond Member
Nov 19, 2008
4,179
2
81
LegendKiller said:
Tell that to every major study in finance in the last 30 years.

Better yet, tell that to Buffet's bank account.


TA is bullshit. There isn't one peer reviewed, empirical study, that has shown superior long-term gains for TA over FA or other methods.

Looking in the rearview mirror for value is a fools proposition and the market has shown it.
Click to expand...

TA is misunderstood for what it is.

The studies in question are NOT comprehensive or specific in their reach by studying individual methods of TA.

It works, it's a fact. How do you think these hedge fund managers are getting rich? Fundamental analysis? I don't think so. They use complex trading systems based on complex mathematical calculations and computer based predictions.

Read about people like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Harris_Simons

And Buffett has nothing to do with this discussion, he made his money in a different manner. There is more than one way to play the market.

You CANNOT trade using fundamental analysis. Do if you're a trader, what do you use? Trading is not gambling and it's not a random. So what do successful traders use?
 
L

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
JMapleton said:
TA is misunderstood for what it is.

The studies in question are NOT comprehensive or specific in their reach by studying individual methods of TA.

It works, it's a fact. How do you think these hedge fund managers are getting rich? Fundamental analysis? I don't think so. They use complex trading systems based on complex mathematical calculations and computer based predictions.

Read about people like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Harris_Simons

And Buffett has nothing to do with this discussion, he made his money in a different manner. There is more than one way to play the market.

You CANNOT trade using fundamental analysis. Do if you're a trader, what do you use? Trading is not gambling and it's not a random. So what do successful traders use?
Click to expand...

There is a huge difference between you staring at a chart for RMBS and saying quad-top and a high-speed algorithm trader tied into dark pools front-running NBBO using sub-pennying, which is exactly where most of these "traders" (or, rather, traitors) make their money.

It's got nothing to do with analyzing movements of the stocks, per se, but everything to do of analyzing the movements of the NBBO and front-running the Bid/Ask sheets, or, taking split-second measurements of the NBBO to gauge queue volume and taking arb profits.

I'm sure you've got the prop trading desk to do that and the connections to the dark pools.

Sure, sparky, go ahead.

But of course, historical price movements (support/resistance levels) predicted Rambus would get a settlement from Samsung and knock the remainder down, right?

No, they didn't. They predicted some mythical movement in stocks based upon historical levels, which have no predictive value for long-term, or even medium-term movements.

Short-term irrationality can have some value in TA, however, profits are largely wasted by transaction (and time) costs and are eaten away by downside risk, which is exactly what TA doesn't adjust for. It is asymmetrical in risk/value propositions. Why? Because it attempts to predict the unpredictable, it is a feedback loop.

How have these guys made money? They've essentially cheated and have been allowed to do it since the decimilization of the markets. It's only gotten worse.
 
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