***Official*** 2010 Stock Market Thread

[JS80]

How is F a good buy with 32 billion in debt?

It's not. It's still a pos american car company.

 

[Slew Foot]

I will hold these long term. if SPG is worth ~80/share, GGP at this price level is a steal. I love all of the GGP malls I've been to...another example of buy what you use/love.

There's a GGP mall around here which I like because it has family parking Most of the malls around here are Westfield behemoths though.

I agree with the other guy that a RMBS favorable decision is int he cards. Whenever the market tanks, RMBS has good news and doesnt go up as much as it should

 

[JMapleton]

I think there is a strong possibility the bear market has awoke from hibernation. I've been loaded up on SH for the last two weeks when I heard Jim Rogers were short.

 

[JMapleton]

For those who call TA and bunch of BS, this guy who is head of one of the most respected TAs firms has had it right all along:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...y-long-bear-market"-prechter-says-492864.html

 

[Rudee]

Some Analysts today saying the sell off could easily extend for another week at least.

 

[JS80]

For those who call TA and bunch of BS, this guy who is head of one of the most respected TAs firms has had it right all along:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...y-long-bear-market"-prechter-says-492864.html

This is the same jackass predicting S&P going to 200. Eillot Wave is outdated and useless.

 

[LegendKiller]

This is the same jackass predicting S&P going to 200. Eillot Wave is outdated and useless.

LOL@guy who thinks S&P 500 is going to 1982 levels.

Wow, just wow.

 

[JS80]

LOL@guy who thinks S&P 500 is going to 1982 levels.

Wow, just wow.

What? you don't think markets trading at a PE of 3 is not reasonable?!?

 

[LegendKiller]

What? you don't think markets trading at a PE of 3 is not reasonable?!?

You know why it's reasonable?


Because a chart tells me so!

 

[HopJokey]

If accurate, is this a good sign?

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?selected=RMBS&mkttype=after

 

[speg]

Well.... my May Iron Condor had blown up. Sad days.

 

[PimpJuice]

For those who call TA and bunch of BS, this guy who is head of one of the most respected TAs firms has had it right all along:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...y-long-bear-market"-prechter-says-492864.html

*yawn* another JMapleton appearance when the market has headed down. He's back playing monday morning QB acting like he called it. Last time he did that, the market skyrocketed and he dissapeared so hopefully it does it again so we dont have to hear his TA bullshit.

 

[Azurik]

I have known Barry since my senior year of highschool. Rambus was on the verge of being the 800-lb gorilla after partnering with Intel. We were both on the RMBS Yahoo! message boards, then the migration to Silicon Investor, then to move to the Fool and then finally transferring to Investor's Villiage. He was an extremely educated man and well-versed in technology - absolutely believed that Rambus tech was superior and that the memory manufacturers were stealing. He bet heavy on call options on all the pivotal dates, and unfortunately, as we all know, courts have a way of making those dates meaningless. He ended up being broke and couldn't face his life and his family.

Below is a letter he wrote to another RMBS investor. Folks, options are dangerous, and so is margin. Play smart... :

If you are receiving this letter, (whose original 1st draft I wrote in August of 2009) it means that I have taken, or at least attempted to take my own life. Take a look at post 422180 (Azurik: 422180 was one of his last post this past Sunday stating we should take a roll call to see if everyone was still alive and haven't killed themself yet). I was NOT speaking figuratively.

After eleven fucking years, I have nothing left, NOTHING. I thought I was being conservative, but I never in my wildest dreams thought that this situation would end up this way. I actually managed to string this along for a lot longer than anyone (me included) would have believed was possible. But finally, I was "out of options" (that's both a pun and literal truth). In fact, my March options were my "last stand"; I've had zero financial interest in Rambus since they expired. While I could otherwise go on, I don't want to: I cannot stand to watch Rambus finally "pay off" after eleven years when I myself can only watch as a non-participating (and pretty well devastated) outsider. But I won't let what has happened turn me into the likes of Infringeon (Azurik: Infringeon was pro-RMBS until he lost $2 million dollars on options). That is not who or what I am.

People on the board talk about "personal responsibility", well, I take responsibility for my own actions, Ihave tried myself, I have found myself guilty, I have sentenced myself and I only hope that I successfully carried out the sentence."

But, as you know, I had accomplices:

Although I don't believethat anyone was literally "paid off", I do believe that Judge Payne was corrupty. I also believe that Judge Robinson is corrupt, but I also think that she is so imcompetent that she may not even be aware of her own actions of her own true role in this saga. Judge Payne was far more corrupt, but Judge Robinson's actions were far more lethal, thanks to their timing (which is as strong an evicence of her corruption as the actions themselves)

Judge Whyte isperhaps the biggest surprise, because he seems so totally oblivious to his ownpart in aiding and abetting one of the largest criminal conspiracies in the history of 20th century business. His inactions were central to the success of the criminals who were convicted in his very own courtroom. He seems so concernedabout being "fair" . . .TO THE CONVICTED CRIMINALS. With no regard whatsoever for the victims.

And then there is JudgeKramer. I don't know what to make of Kramer, he has turned into a bad (VERY bad) joke of a judge. Like Whyte, he seemed to be one who could finally deliver justice. But, instead, he became the final instrument of my undoing. The trial should never have been delayed from May to September (OF 2009!) and when it was, Kramer should have made absolutely certain that the trial was ready to go. . .jury selection . . . on the scheduledday in September. The September to Janurary (2010) delay was a total sham, due primarily to Kramer's inability to control hiscourt (over 100 motions still unresolved as ofAugust)and, I believe,his desire to take a vacation in November. And then Price's cancer. Amazing; Price gets cancer and I die. Maybe Ihave unwittingly found a solution to the healthcare problem.

With enormous difficulty and a bit of fortunate luck, I was somehow able to both hang on and rearrange my options to run through Feb. 2010 and then even March 2010. If the stock had even gotten into even the mid 30's Iwould have pulled it out.

Then came Prices play. As I said, Price gets cancer and I die."

 

[HopJokey]

I have known Barry since my senior year of highschool. Rambus was on the verge of being the 800-lb gorilla after partnering with Intel. We were both on the RMBS Yahoo! message boards, then the migration to Silicon Investor, then to move to the Fool and then finally transferring to Investor's Villiage. He was an extremely educated man and well-versed in technology - absolutely believed that Rambus tech was superior and that the memory manufacturers were stealing. He bet heavy on call options on all the pivotal dates, and unfortunately, as we all know, courts have a way of making those dates meaningless. He ended up being broke and couldn't face his life and his family.

Below is a letter he wrote to another RMBS investor. Folks, options are dangerous, and so is margin. Play smart... :

...

:'(

 

[JS80]

i have known barry since my senior year of highschool. Rambus was on the verge of being the 800-lb gorilla after partnering with intel. We were both on the rmbs yahoo! Message boards, then the migration to silicon investor, then to move to the fool and then finally transferring to investor's villiage. He was an extremely educated man and well-versed in technology - absolutely believed that rambus tech was superior and that the memory manufacturers were stealing. He bet heavy on call options on all the pivotal dates, and unfortunately, as we all know, courts have a way of making those dates meaningless. He ended up being broke and couldn't face his life and his family.

Below is a letter he wrote to another rmbs investor. Folks, options are dangerous, and so is margin. Play smart... :

if you are receiving this letter, (whose original 1st draft i wrote in august of 2009) it means that i have taken, or at least attempted to take my own life. Take a look at post 422180 (azurik: 422180 was one of his last post this past sunday stating we should take a roll call to see if everyone was still alive and haven't killed themself yet). I was not speaking figuratively.

After eleven fucking years, i have nothing left, nothing. I thought i was being conservative, but i never in my wildest dreams thought that this situation would end up this way. I actually managed to string this along for a lot longer than anyone (me included) would have believed was possible. But finally, i was "out of options" (that's both a pun and literal truth). In fact, my march options were my "last stand"; i've had zero financial interest in rambus since they expired. While i could otherwise go on, i don't want to: I cannot stand to watch rambus finally "pay off" after eleven years when i myself can only watch as a non-participating (and pretty well devastated) outsider. But i won't let what has happened turn me into the likes of infringeon (azurik: Infringeon was pro-rmbs until he lost $2 million dollars on options). That is not who or what i am.

People on the board talk about "personal responsibility", well, i take responsibility for my own actions, ihave tried myself, i have found myself guilty, i have sentenced myself and i only hope that i successfully carried out the sentence."

but, as you know, i had accomplices:

Although i don't believethat anyone was literally "paid off", i do believe that judge payne was corrupty. I also believe that judge robinson is corrupt, but i also think that she is so imcompetent that she may not even be aware of her own actions of her own true role in this saga. Judge payne was far more corrupt, but judge robinson's actions were far more lethal, thanks to their timing (which is as strong an evicence of her corruption as the actions themselves)

judge whyte isperhaps the biggest surprise, because he seems so totally oblivious to his ownpart in aiding and abetting one of the largest criminal conspiracies in the history of 20th century business. His inactions were central to the success of the criminals who were convicted in his very own courtroom. He seems so concernedabout being "fair" . . .to the convicted criminals. With no regard whatsoever for the victims.

And then there is judgekramer. I don't know what to make of kramer, he has turned into a bad (very bad) joke of a judge. Like whyte, he seemed to be one who could finally deliver justice. But, instead, he became the final instrument of my undoing. The trial should never have been delayed from may to september (of 2009!) and when it was, kramer should have made absolutely certain that the trial was ready to go. . .jury selection . . . On the scheduledday in september. The september to janurary (2010) delay was a total sham, due primarily to kramer's inability to control hiscourt (over 100 motions still unresolved as ofaugust)and, i believe,his desire to take a vacation in november. And then price's cancer. Amazing; price gets cancer and i die. Maybe ihave unwittingly found a solution to the healthcare problem.

With enormous difficulty and a bit of fortunate luck, i was somehow able to both hang on and rearrange my options to run through feb. 2010 and then even march 2010. If the stock had even gotten into even the mid 30's iwould have pulled it out.

Then came prices play. As i said, price gets cancer and i die."

wtf

 

[HopJokey]

wtf

Sadly it is not a joke it appears.

 

[JMapleton]

LOL@guy who thinks S&P 500 is going to 1982 levels.

Wow, just wow.

It will and it won't.

It will not trade at 200, but it will trade close to that relative to gold, meaning the S&P to gold ratio will be the same as it did in the early 80s.

Gold will be 10,000 an ounce before the end of the decade and the DJI will be close to that as well, after falling significantly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HbPIAuWpko

 

[JMapleton]

*yawn* another JMapleton appearance when the market has headed down. He's back playing monday morning QB acting like he called it. Last time he did that, the market skyrocketed and he dissapeared so hopefully it does it again so we dont have to hear his TA bullshit.

I never "call" the market, I can only state when I personally think it's over or under priced but I cannot predict the exact moment when it will crack, although I strongly think it's cracking right now per my personal opinion.

 

[LegendKiller]

It will and it won't.

It will not trade at 200, but it will trade close to that relative to gold, meaning the S&P to gold ratio will be the same as it did in the early 80s.

Gold will be 10,000 an ounce before the end of the decade and the DJI will be close to that as well, after falling significantly.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HbPIAuWpko

LOL, by the end of the decade? You mean, by the end of this year?


Then you link to Schiff, the guy who is an utter failure at every fucking one of his ridiculous prognostications (Asia, Yay, Gold, Yay, delink!, Dollar Collapse!).

Really, that's the best you can do is run around quoting Schiff's bullshit? No wonder your prognostications are for shit and your opinions are worth even less.

Yeah, I bet you hobnob with the bigwigs doof.

 

[JMapleton]

Then you link to Schiff, the guy who is an utter failure at every fucking one of his ridiculous prognostications (Asia, Yay, Gold, Yay, delink!, Dollar Collapse!).

Really, that's the best you can do is run around quoting Schiff's bullshit? No wonder your prognostications are for shit and your opinions are worth even less.

Yeah, I bet you hobnob with the bigwigs doof.

Schiff bought gold at 300 an ounce and called the housing crash in the face of people like yourself laughing at him, he is hardly a failure.

Furthermore I do not need to defend my opinions, you're oblivious to logic, just watch it unfold and remember who said it.

 

[manlymatt83]

So if I have money on the sidelines, what's the best option here:

- Go long now and make some money on the "post option expiration" climb
- Go short and make some money as the market continues to fall
- Throw a ton into gold.

 

[LegendKiller]

Schiff bought gold at 300 an ounce and called the housing crash in the face of people like yourself laughing at him, he is hardly a failure.

Furthermore I do not need to defend my opinions, you're oblivious to logic, just watch it unfold and remember who said it.

Did he really buy it?

Wow, he prognosticated the housing bubble. So did I back in 2004/5/.

Mish did a pretty good job showing how he was a failure.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/106824-being-wrong-for-five-years-makes-peter-schiff-right-now

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong/

Peter Schiff was wrong on Gold (said it would hit ~2K by EOY 2009), he was wrong about the dollar, he was wrong about Asia, he was wrong about delinking, he was wrong about hyperinflation, he was wrong about equities.

This is why people like you pump him up and why you believe so much of what he says, because you're the same way. You make 1,000 prognostications, most gloom-and-doom, and then when one comes true, you claim righteousness.

That's why you believe in your ridiculous version of TA, because it's only right sometimes, not all of the time. It's purely luck, statistical dumb luck, just like Schiff's single prognostication being correct and 10 being incorrect.


Oh, and in case you forgot the drubbing First and I gave you, here you go

http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2047561&page=2&highlight=schiff

 

[JS80]

Schiff bought gold at 300 an ounce and called the housing crash in the face of people like yourself laughing at him, he is hardly a failure.

Furthermore I do not need to defend my opinions, you're oblivious to logic, just watch it unfold and remember who said it.

Everyone and their mother called the housing crash, but at least they didn't lose their clients 80% of their money during the economic crisis.

 

[SludgeFactory]

I have known Barry since my senior year of highschool. Rambus was on the verge of being the 800-lb gorilla after partnering with Intel. We were both on the RMBS Yahoo! message boards, then the migration to Silicon Investor, then to move to the Fool and then finally transferring to Investor's Villiage. He was an extremely educated man and well-versed in technology - absolutely believed that Rambus tech was superior and that the memory manufacturers were stealing. He bet heavy on call options on all the pivotal dates, and unfortunately, as we all know, courts have a way of making those dates meaningless. He ended up being broke and couldn't face his life and his family.

Below is a letter he wrote to another RMBS investor. Folks, options are dangerous, and so is margin. Play smart... :

That's terrible. He was one of the more "normal" people who posted on IV. There's a Part II to that letter that was posted about 15 minutes later. Basically ranting about the weak settlement with Samsung and how management dropped the ball.

You spend some time following the IV board, and you see the bitterness in so many of the guys who've gotten screwed by the legal circus, especially by Robinson. Some of the diatribe there by the LTL's is like Captain Ahab going after his white whale, they're riding this out even if it destroys them. The mood swings over there are just crazy.

 

[Azurik]

That's terrible. He was one of the more "normal" people who posted on IV. There's a Part II to that letter that was posted about 15 minutes later. Basically ranting about the weak settlement with Samsung and how management dropped the ball.

You spend some time following the IV board, and you see the bitterness in so many of the guys who've gotten screwed by the legal circus, especially by Robinson. Some of the diatribe there by the LTL's is like Captain Ahab going after his white whale, they're riding this out even if it destroys them. The mood swings over there are just crazy.

Justice delayed, justice denied. The IV Board comprises of many wealthy, educated individuals - a lot of them multi-millionaires. Rambus is a surprisingly complex saga, and although as time goes on, more truths get uncovered that has continuously sided with what we knew (that RMBS had a disruptive technology that would change computers forever), many of us weren't able to predict how long it would actually take.

Many of them banked on call options to make them rich for eternity. They were absolutely convinced. Obviously, I was (and am) in this camp that RMBS was not the evil one, but I never touched margin when it came to RMBS, and I rarely played call options.

You could also see it on THIS board. RMBS went from their $5 lows to $26, and yet some people ended up with a net loss due to worthless options. Greed gets the better of the majority of people. It's just very sad and unfortunate when it concludes in taking one own's life.