just bought some HGSI at 2.38 today..ABthrax approval some come anyday now, and phase3 Lupus data should be good...things are looking bright.... do your own DD.
sold some of my tivo for meager gain, was trying to trade them into tivo nov $15 but nothing is moving on that front and my order didn't get executed. Sold less than half of the RMBS shares, it's still the biggest part of my portfolio.
bought a few C july $3 calls for .23, hope i can sell it soon.
bought a few C july $3 calls for .23, hope i can sell it soon.
Is it generally true that on weeks that options expire (like this one), stock prices drop? Maybe like hedge funds and other big 'institutions' that can move enough volume to influence stock prices could do like... for stocks that seem 'hot', sell call options early in the expiration week when the prices are up. Then sell craploads of shares to drive the stock price down, de-valuing nearly expired options; and with the intention of buying their shares back later on when share prices are lower.
Is there any validity to that line of thought or is it nonsense?
Is there any validity to that line of thought or is it nonsense?
Lazard who? oh these guys? if you read the article, they are basically saying if the lupus drug failed, the stock will probably goto $1, if it is approved, it might be worth $10
"The stock could fall to $1 from its current levels, if belimumab (formerly known as LymphoStat-B) did not meet the primary goal of the trial, the brokerage said.
However, if the trial was positive, then the shares could trade up as much as $10, Lazard added."
I wouldn't be surprised if they are just trying to bash the company to get some cheap shares before the pop.
Hm does that make the 'option pain' price a good time to buy? (e.g. I've been looking to pick up some shares of GE)
HGSI taking off on volume! took a tiny tiny position on it, bought some 5 calls at .20 today, got only half way filled. Those are up a lot already, but this ramp up is huge.
this ramp up is huge, but I bet some analyst will come out with a downgrade on the company soon, they are so predictable. hopefully noone is stupid enough to listen to them, and they should use it as a buy signal....
I did some research today on HGSI.... putting it in my speculative play bucket, small position. I also shorted RIMM during the day today, looks like its paying off after hours. Hopefully it doesn't gap up tomorrow.
I longed 400 sh of RIMM and wrote the 80 calls against it. Nearly shit my pants when I saw early AH action at 71. I plan on holding over weekend.
Did you cover in AH? I feel like analysts will come out tomorrow and feed the line that they lowballed guidance and upgrade it. But could be max pain and they will let it loose starting monday.
I covered when I saw the ramp up from 71 to 73 in AH so quickly.... I always feel RIMM is manipulated SOMEHOW.... its such an irrational stock.
I was thinking about RMBS this morning...let's say they get a $10 billion+ settlement, will the cartel even have the money to give them or will it have to come from future royalty streams that may take a while to materialize?
Bullish pennant forming on RMBS. Hopefully market runs next week to support it. I would look for a run up to 25.
- Jan 23, 2002
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Samsung has the money... Hynix doesn't have that kind of money and Micron certainly doesn't. If there's a settlement, it won't be $10 billion though.
Rambus is claiming $4.2 billion in damages that are automatically trembled (tripled), so the calculation does come out to over $12+ billion. But if they reach a settlement, it won't be near $12 billion.
I can see a settlement where Rambus allows the parties to pay penalties over time, but also forgives some of the trembled damages for an on-going 5-year license.
Sorry, NOT settlement, I meant JUDGEMENT. In case of judgement, how will Micrap/Hymen pay up?
Doubled my option position on RMBS...taking a gamble on the bullish pennant.
edit: wow. got effed in the ay. why couldn't i have waited one day.
edit: wow. got effed in the ay. why couldn't i have waited one day.
- Jan 23, 2002
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They won't, there's no way they can afford that big of a judgement, even if it's spilt between 3 defendants.
The good thing is, it doesn't matter if they can or cannot pay. The civil AT case carries a "joint and several" liability. I explained this earlier in the year in that whichever company is left remaining at the end is liable for the entire amount.
So it could be $12 billion divided by 3, by 2 or owed by 1 company. Samsung is the powerhouse of the three and by far the one with the most money - that's why they have the most to lose if they don't settle. They could eat the entire bill.
The flip side of that is, if we settle with Samsung, it better be a respectable amount, because Micron/Hynix won't be able to pay. It will bankrupt the companies if they don't go bankrupt beforehand.
*sigh*
stock overreacting to lower guidance. plus they are selling convertible notes. lol when banks doing the stock goes up, when rmbs does it, it goes down.
- Jan 23, 2002
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It's not really the lower guidance, the analysts who were covering expected earnings of $27.3 million for this quarter anyway. It's the convertibles. The last time they sold converitble notes in 2005, the stock dived down 25% only to recover it shortly.
I think this is smart of Rambus. They need a "rainy day" fund in case things don't go as expected. With the price of Rambus shooting so high recently, now is a good time as any. I think the credit market collapses further, and later on this year/early next year they won't get the same opportunity again. At the price right now with say a 35%-40% premium, I expect dilution to be about 6-7 million shares. So we go from 110 million shares total to 117 million shares total. Big deal... especially if they use this to buffer their war chest and/or aquire additional IP company in their long-term growth strategy. No news basically... although the market looks freaky lately. I expect RMBS to trade with the market until we have news.
Hynix's bond ruling is due at the end of this month. Lets see if they will/can post. Outside of that, unless there's a settlement or surprise license soon, we need to look forward to September.
Cool. Plus who sells notes unless they are expecting future cash flow anyway? Just need to be patient. But I've been looking day to day because I'm buying pre-Sept options. Maybe i'll convert to Nov and stop checking day to day. Or rather stressing.
- Jan 23, 2002
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I explained further in my previous post. Look at the edit up there.
If I were you I'd take the huge profits you made for the July calls and pocket some if you want and roll the rest to January. You're going on a gamble with pre-Sept options, and November/December isn't THAT much safer either. A judge can delay for a month and you'd be screwed.
AT trial decision in November and Rambus vs Nvidia initial decision at the ITC in December. It could be delayed for whatever reason. The safer play would be to join me in January calls.
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