Originally posted by: aldamon
UPDATE 2-US judge says will likely rule for Micron
Old news.
What I got from Friday's conference with Judge Whyte is that he views strongly his opinion of spoilation is right, but he is not going to abuse his power of discretion and will apply collateral estoppel (CE) to Delaware's ruling. However, it seems as though he will stay that issue and not make it final until Rambus appeals the Delaware decision.
The more important thing is where is he with the rulings of Hynix and Samsung, and when this DDR2 trial is going to happen. He promised in court today that his decision will be made either tonight or tomorrow at the latest. He was very confident about this.
He also asked Stone (head lawyer for Rambus) which is more important: 1) having the trial on track to begin February 17th or the certify the damages and place a compulsory license or injuction against Hynix. Stone answered he would like both, but if he were forced to choose one, he wanted the Hynix decision finalized.
Here's what I think and why the market is worried:
Hynix being certified is extremely important. As soon as he does this, Hynix will owe roughly $300m-$500m to Rambus and will either need to pay Rambus a royalty for future sales or stop making chips all together. This will happen this month, probably before February 17th.
What the market is worried about is a long delay in the DDR2 trial (we're talking 2 years). I am sure Judge Whyte is well aware of what delays have caused Rambus and will not likely take this route. I bet he will postpone for a few weeks/couple months in order for him to get ready for this mess. That's what the market is antsy about.
This is what I wrote to you guys what could possibly happen in California right after the Delaware decision came out:
1. He disregards Robinson's verdict as his court already saw the same set of facts and ruled completely opposite in Rambus vs Hynix's DDR and SDRAM trial. He lets the CAFC sort the dissenting opinions knowing both will be appealed anyway and his is the more thorough one. Trial proceeds. This is the best outcome for Rambus. 20%
2. He allows Robinson's ruling to enter his court and strikes out 4 of the 10 claims Rambus has asserted against Micron. The rest of the manufacturer's stay as scheduled. Trial is not stayed (stalled), maybe a couple weeks delay due to the new motions he has to respond to. This is the most likely and close to best outcome Rambus can get. 45%
3. He stays the entire trial until Robinson's ruling is appealed by Rambus. Almost worst case scenario... delays are bad for RMBS. 15%
4. He strikes out the 4 claims to all parties. Not the best, but leaves 1 claim which he rules already infringed. 5%
5. He reverses himself and rules this patent tree is unenforceable. This is the worst case scenario and seriously damages RMBS. I would sell everything if this happens. .01%
6. He exempts Micron from the suit awaiting the results of the appeal and presses forward with everyone else. This is not the best of news, but it isn't so bad either. It lets the Micron issue get squared away with, and at worst Rambus loses Micron's 12% share of the DRAM market. 15%
He could also put his certification at any time now on the previous Rambus vs Hynix trial in which Rambus won all 3 phases (bench trial, jury trial, conduct phase). He has stated he is either going to bar Hynix from making any chips or force them into a compulsory license. This is a revenue stream for RMBS that includes back pay. He just needs to finalize his opinion.
It looks like he's leaning on choosing Option #6, along with certifying the Hynix trial.
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