Some factor of it is priced in. For example (I'm making up all numbers here), let's say the stock's intrinsic value (it's business value) is $13/sh, and the settlement value is $50/sh, and the market says there is a 20% chance of settlement, then the stock price would be $13 + $50*20% = $23. Of course this is assuming there are no other factors.
Some factor of it is priced in. For example (I'm making up all numbers here), let's say the stock's intrinsic value (it's business value) is $13/sh, and the settlement value is $50/sh, and the market says there is a 20% chance of settlement, then the stock price would be $13 + $50*20% = $23. Of course this is assuming there are no other factors.
The market is up, and as I previously noted, RMBS has no real technical resistance until the $26 area... and then not until $40.
No, it's not factored. If Samsung settles, I expect this stock to go over $40 automatically and climb its way to $50 before settling. Also, the Jan 11th date is jury selection, not the start of the actual real trial.
Usually, I would recommend selling calls against your shares for additional profit, but with so many random variables that could happen, I wouldn't this time around.
Sorry I haven't responded to some private messages and questions here... I'm offically on vacation from work until January 5th and just catching up on holiday friends/romance/shopping. Plus, seeing my brokerage account go up $15,000 daily solely because of RMBS gets boring...
...just kidding on the boring part!
awesome, thanks! enjoy your vacation I'm sure your PM box will explode as we get closer to the trail date
cool, that makes sense, thanks!
I may have to take back the Jan 11 comment, apparently that's all "pre-trial" stuff i.e. jury selection, and the trial won't start for another week after that, which means trial starts after option expiration. That's a risk you'll have to take.
Here's a good post from Y!Finance:
- Jan 23, 2002
- 2,206
- 12
- 81
January should be very interesting as that month's options expire right before the ITC decision, but they still show a lot of calls in anticipation of some sort of good news on the AT front.
I think once January 11th comes, everyone will breathe a sigh of relief that the AT case, filed in 2004, "finally" gets underway. The trial is scheduled to last several weeks, I believe end of February/beginning of March before we get a jury decision. I peg the AT case to favor Rambus, big time... probability of winning around 85%-90%.
The ITC case against Nvidia is important as it establishes Rambus' rights to graphic DRAM and controllers. The ITC staff has agreed with Rambus that Nvidia infringes and recommends a ban of all their chips to the U.S., but it's ultimately up to the ITC Judge Essex who confirms or denies that. Keep in mind though, Judge Essex was the judge who went against his staff's recommendation in the TSRA case, only to be overturned by the full ITC commission. I have a 60%/40% spilt on this for RMBS, but a 75%-80% chance of it being reversed by the ITC commission in favor of RMBS should the decision from the judge be adverse to them.
Oh, and RMBS just hit over $24! It better reach the $26 mark quickly, because all these up days caused all these gaps on the upside... and we know all gaps usually fill eventually unless something significant happens.
I think once January 11th comes, everyone will breathe a sigh of relief that the AT case, filed in 2004, "finally" gets underway. The trial is scheduled to last several weeks, I believe end of February/beginning of March before we get a jury decision. I peg the AT case to favor Rambus, big time... probability of winning around 85%-90%.
The ITC case against Nvidia is important as it establishes Rambus' rights to graphic DRAM and controllers. The ITC staff has agreed with Rambus that Nvidia infringes and recommends a ban of all their chips to the U.S., but it's ultimately up to the ITC Judge Essex who confirms or denies that. Keep in mind though, Judge Essex was the judge who went against his staff's recommendation in the TSRA case, only to be overturned by the full ITC commission. I have a 60%/40% spilt on this for RMBS, but a 75%-80% chance of it being reversed by the ITC commission in favor of RMBS should the decision from the judge be adverse to them.
Oh, and RMBS just hit over $24! It better reach the $26 mark quickly, because all these up days caused all these gaps on the upside... and we know all gaps usually fill eventually unless something significant happens.
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I own some hgsi jan 30 calls and rmbs jan 22.5 calls..GGWPQ is up too. another good day for me. oh and GNVC is up also, which I own close to 30k shares now.
Anyone watching the Google and ONT saga? Google is trying to buy it's first publicly traded company ON2 Technologies with a lowball offer of 0.001 share of GOOG per share of ONT(ONT is at .57ish, and GOOG is at $599-600 or so now, so you make ~2cents already)...most shareholders are voting no on the deal, so google will either walk away or up the offer. If google walks, ONT will need to pay a breakup fee, and probably go down to 20cents or so, or Google might offer over a buck, or as high as 3bucks. Google is saying they don't need and aren't using anything from ONT, but some think that google is already using ONT's codec in android, and could use it for youtube to save some bandwidth. It should be interesting to see how it will play out...
Anyone watching the Google and ONT saga? Google is trying to buy it's first publicly traded company ON2 Technologies with a lowball offer of 0.001 share of GOOG per share of ONT(ONT is at .57ish, and GOOG is at $599-600 or so now, so you make ~2cents already)...most shareholders are voting no on the deal, so google will either walk away or up the offer. If google walks, ONT will need to pay a breakup fee, and probably go down to 20cents or so, or Google might offer over a buck, or as high as 3bucks. Google is saying they don't need and aren't using anything from ONT, but some think that google is already using ONT's codec in android, and could use it for youtube to save some bandwidth. It should be interesting to see how it will play out...
argh I'm such an idiot...i opened an optionshouse account so i don't get raped on commission and I did an ACH instead of wire transfer (which they were going to cover the cost) and now the Jan 30 calls are up 50%!!
wow..another awesome day..is this the beginning of what they call a santa claus rally?
hopefully it's not just a santa claus rally
- Jun 10, 2004
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wow..another awesome day..is this the beginning of what they call a santa claus rally?
And yet another good day! I hope you guys who bought GGWPQ in the $7s and $8s held on for the ride! My only regret is I didn't have more spare cash to average down.
Pliablemoose
Lifer
- Oct 11, 1999
- 25,195
- 0
- 56
I'm gonna pump Apple again.
1.) Blowout quarter this quarter, earnings announced 1-22-10
2.) Perhaps the first quarterly report without subscription based accounting (mega blow out earnings)
3.) The tablet announcement is imminent.
4.) Wall street loves a story stock.
One of the simpler plays is to buy a stock prior to it's quarterly earnings report if you suspect good numbers, always good for a few points if you trade frequently.
I'm overweight, anticipating a point or two every day till earnings are announced. Jobs is going to play this quarter like a fiddle.
1.) Blowout quarter this quarter, earnings announced 1-22-10
2.) Perhaps the first quarterly report without subscription based accounting (mega blow out earnings)
3.) The tablet announcement is imminent.
4.) Wall street loves a story stock.
One of the simpler plays is to buy a stock prior to it's quarterly earnings report if you suspect good numbers, always good for a few points if you trade frequently.
I'm overweight, anticipating a point or two every day till earnings are announced. Jobs is going to play this quarter like a fiddle.
- Jan 23, 2002
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JS80's comment is correct, Kramer appears to be deadset on Jan 11th as the start of the trial. It's good for you guys because we won't get another delay and a hit on the stock price because of it.
Actually, outside of that good news, a lot of good things happened in Kramer's court today. The biggest is that the jury will NOT hear that AT damages in the state of CA are automatically trembled (tripled).
Rambus has provided expert reports that the damage is around $4-$5 billion, which is $12-$15 billion trembled. The memory manufacturers wanted the jury to know that whatever damages they awarded to Rambus would be tripled. The logic here is if the jury knows that the damages are going to be tripled, they might lessen the original award since the amount is so big. Judge Kramer is not allowing any of that and told everyone that the jury will not hear about the trembling law whatsoever, and that there are previous case law to support this.
Just to let you guys know how huge this is... when this trial begins, this will be the biggest AT trial in the history of the United States. This is unprecendented.
Actually, outside of that good news, a lot of good things happened in Kramer's court today. The biggest is that the jury will NOT hear that AT damages in the state of CA are automatically trembled (tripled).
Rambus has provided expert reports that the damage is around $4-$5 billion, which is $12-$15 billion trembled. The memory manufacturers wanted the jury to know that whatever damages they awarded to Rambus would be tripled. The logic here is if the jury knows that the damages are going to be tripled, they might lessen the original award since the amount is so big. Judge Kramer is not allowing any of that and told everyone that the jury will not hear about the trembling law whatsoever, and that there are previous case law to support this.
Just to let you guys know how huge this is... when this trial begins, this will be the biggest AT trial in the history of the United States. This is unprecendented.
I just finished reading drive's report on IV...wow wtf. I can't imagine what kind of notes he took in college!
Now if someone can just cliff note it to a one pager...
Pliablemoose
Lifer
- Oct 11, 1999
- 25,195
- 0
- 56
the Google and ONT saga continues...looks like crooked ONT's Interim CEO is determined to get the company sold and disregard its shareholders votes. Some people think that he is on Google's payroll already. it's very interesting, so much for Google's don't be evil motto...I bought 10k shares at .57, hopefully they will be converted to 10 shares of GOOG sometimes next year.
- Jun 10, 2004
- 14,608
- 6,094
- 136
nice...party at Azurik's!
Heh, I wish I had that kind of capital to throw around...
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