***Official*** 2009 Stock Market Thread

[destrekor]

so, is ETFC looking like a decent gamble, or will it slide again? Anyone expecting another good buy-in point today, or is now looking like the best time?

C has dropped around 4%, I think I can handle that as it has been a rather insane climb on average for the past few weeks. If it looks like it's going to drop I'll pull out and buy in when it gets low, but I'm thinking I'll just hold on, doesn't look like it's going to go too far south today. If it continues tomorrow, not sure what I'll do.

 

[theeedude]

http://www.market-harmonics.co...stors_intelligence.htm

Bull to bear ratio is approaching last November levels. Looks to me like market is becoming overbought and is due for a major correction.
I am keeping cash on the sidelines.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: senseamp
http://www.market-harmonics.co...stors_intelligence.htm

Bull to bear ratio is approaching last November levels. Looks to me like market is becoming overbought and is due for a major correction.
I am keeping cash on the sidelines.

Am I reading that chart wrong? It says the current bull/bear ratio is 2.6, but the last time we had a bull/bear ratio of 2.6 was Nov. 2007, not last Nov.

Last Nov. it looks like the bull/bear ratio was about 0.4.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: senseamp
http://www.market-harmonics.co...stors_intelligence.htm

Bull to bear ratio is approaching last November levels. Looks to me like market is becoming overbought and is due for a major correction.
I am keeping cash on the sidelines.

Am I reading that chart wrong? It says the current bull/bear ratio is 2.6, but the last time we had a bull/bear ratio of 2.6 was Nov. 2007, not last Nov.

Last Nov. it looks like the bull/bear ratio was about 0.4.

That's right. But correction started before last November.

 

[darkxshade]

Originally posted by: destrekor
so, is ETFC looking like a decent gamble, or will it slide again? Anyone expecting another good buy-in point today, or is now looking like the best time?

C has dropped around 4%, I think I can handle that as it has been a rather insane climb on average for the past few weeks. If it looks like it's going to drop I'll pull out and buy in when it gets low, but I'm thinking I'll just hold on, doesn't look like it's going to go too far south today. If it continues tomorrow, not sure what I'll do.

I think I addressed ETFC to you in another thread but to reiterate, it's primed to take off.

-It has a huge amount of short position(30% SI on float) which will send it up on even the slightest of good news. Additionally, I do not believe(I might be wrong on this one) they can't be shorted right now, there's no shares left.
-It's no longer on the chopping block now that they've completed their debt exchange(gives them more time to pay them off) and gives them breathing room in the short term to return to profitablility.
-In terms of marketing, they have a very recognizable name and their discount brokerage is very solid, it's their gamble into subprime that caused them all the problems and that's taken cared of in the debt exchange
-Their biggest holder Citadel announced today that they've scrapped their plans to sell 120mm shares(About 10% of the company), adds pressure to shorts.
-Market cap of 1.6B(as of Fri) which makes them a cheap acquisition by any standards.

But of course anything can happen but I believe personally, there's enough good news to warrant a gamble. I bought a ton of leaps on fri and am already up a good 15-20%. At this point, it's almost an impossibility for E-Trade to go bankrupt which was why it was supressed to such lows in the first place so with that off the table, this stock should be a good bet. In the short term however, I can't say which way it'll go, it's up to ~1.8 from 1.4 in 2 business days so as far as that goes, it could continue its rally squeezing shorts or it might dip again, I'm betting the former since it's up 10% on a market down day. If the market opens green tomorrow, ETFC should theoretically push higher.

 

[destrekor]

Originally posted by: darkxshade

Originally posted by: destrekor
so, is ETFC looking like a decent gamble, or will it slide again? Anyone expecting another good buy-in point today, or is now looking like the best time?

C has dropped around 4%, I think I can handle that as it has been a rather insane climb on average for the past few weeks. If it looks like it's going to drop I'll pull out and buy in when it gets low, but I'm thinking I'll just hold on, doesn't look like it's going to go too far south today. If it continues tomorrow, not sure what I'll do.

I think I addressed ETFC to you in another thread but to reiterate, it's primed to take off.

-It has a huge amount of short position(30% SI on float) which will send it up on even the slightest of good news. Additionally, I do not believe(I might be wrong on this one) they can't be shorted right now, there's no shares left.
-It's no longer on the chopping block now that they've completed their debt exchange(gives them more time to pay them off) and gives them breathing room in the short term to return to profitablility.
-In terms of marketing, they have a very recognizable name and their discount brokerage is very solid, it's their gamble into subprime that caused them all the problems and that's taken cared of in the debt exchange
-Their biggest holder Citadel announced today that they've scrapped their plans to sell 120mm shares(About 10% of the company), adds pressure to shorts.
-Market cap of 1.6B(as of Fri) which makes them a cheap acquisition by any standards.

But of course anything can happen but I believe personally, there's enough good news to warrant a gamble. I bought a ton of leaps on fri and am already up a good 15-20%. At this point, it's almost an impossibility for E-Trade to go bankrupt which was why it was supressed to such lows in the first place so with that off the table, this stock should be a good bet. In the short term however, I can't say which way it'll go, it's up to ~1.8 from 1.4 in 2 business days so as far as that goes, it could continue its rally squeezing shorts or it might dip again, I'm betting the former since it's up 10% on a market down day. If the market opens green tomorrow, ETFC should theoretically push higher.

just bought into ETFC. Let's hope this is an enjoyable ride.
Sold 350 of my shares of HT, which hasn't exactly been showing anything to push it up or down, so it rising is likely out of over confidence. I still have 350 more shares in HT. Technically, I pulled out basically what I originally invested in it, so as of now it's just the profits.

And now I put the original HT investment into ETFC. Let's hope this is equally as friendly.


On another note - September 4th couldn't come sooner. CTIC has stated they are hoping for a Priority Review final decision from the FDA that day. Apparently, and I had missed this - the FDA has already stated they were choosing Standard Review, but it seems like that was a preliminary decision, and not the final decision? CTIC is basically appealing to the FDA, because it seems most cancer drugs get Priority Review...

and if Pixatrone gets Standard Review... I might have to bail out of CTIC for the time being.

But that is something I really do not wish to do. Next spring is when I'll have had this stock for 12 months. And it has been my best investment choice, currently over 500% in gain... I'd really like that to not be taxed in the short-term investment bracket... gunning for holding at least 12 months before pulling anything out, and even then... if this stock does well, the goal is to only pull some out to invest in other areas, leaving most in CTIC.

 

[richardycc]

what happened at ZGEN? it was down most of the day and now up 20+cents and some vol behind it...maybe good news leaked?

and someone bought 210 Nov 7.5 calls..something is definitely up.

 

[theeedude]

Citadel terminating 10b5-1 sale is essentially legal insider trading, so would be hard to bet against it.

 

[SludgeFactory]

RMBS is taking a beating in after hours trading. IV message boards say the trial is now delayed until January.

godammit, the calls I bought this morning are currently swirling down the toilet.

 

[cheezy321]

Originally posted by: SludgeFactory
RMBS is taking a beating in after hours trading. IV message boards say the trial is now delayed until January.

godammit, the calls I bought this morning are currently swirling down the toilet.

was just about to post about this. Damn this sucks if true. Why cant the RMBS trial ever end?!?!

 

[goog40]

Wow, according to the IV boards, the trial was delayed until January because one of the lawyers claims he is sick and can't work for 30 days. And the judge didn't want a jury to work through the holidays (Thanksgiving or Christmas), so that's how we ended up with the January date. Seems like the RMBS lawyer didn't even try to oppose the delay at all.

Azurik, what's your take on this?

 

[Dacalo]

I am so glad I sold my RMBS options about two weeks ago. I may consider buying some shares on this dip.

 

[eLiu]

Is there any other good news that could come for RMBS before jan expiry?

 

[Slew Foot]

Thats why I say, buy your options twice as far out as you think you need to.

 

[manlymatt83]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Thats why I say, buy your options twice as far out as you think you need to.

Yeah, and they should probably be puts too

 

[Kntx]

Originally posted by: SludgeFactory
RMBS is taking a beating in after hours trading. IV message boards say the trial is now delayed until January.

godammit, the calls I bought this morning are currently swirling down the toilet.

Oh this is horrible news to wake up to. I was close to selling my january calls (were up 150%) but held on because I was greedy

For those of us with Jan calls there is still potential for something to happen with nvidia before they expire. Let's hope!

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: goog40
Azurik, what's your take on this?

I was on the phone last night talking to a sizeable investor in Rambus. We have mixed feelings. It appears as though the Rambus attorneys knew of this serious illness before the conference today, and agree that it is serious enough to warrant a delay. I have never heard of this lawyer for Samsung before. What strikes me interesting is that Joseph Cotchett from Rambus dismissed himself from the trial a couple weeks ago, and we now learn that Matthew Powers of Samsung (on their side, their biggest legal superstar) is now bowing out of the action.

I really don't know what to make of it when both primetime lawyers dismiss themselves and now we have a delay due to a "grave" sickness.

Shares are slated to open around $17, which isn't bad. Think we've been spoiled by the run-up to $19. The case still remains strong, it just sucks that it won't start until January 2010. So now we'll have the Rambus vs Nvidia trial happening first starting this October rather than the AT case.

Here's two analysts take on it taken from Briefing:

08:49 RMBS BWS Financial discusses trial delay in the anti-trust case (19.10)

BWS Financial notes that at hearing late yesterday, California Superior Court Judge Richard Kramer allowed for a delay in the anti-trust case brought by Rambus (RMBS) against certain DRAM manufactures. The reasoning for the latest round of delays was associated with a lead attorney for Samsung Electronics being gravely ill. While the timing is highly suspicious the delay would extend out the timeframe before the anti-trust case will be heard. The trial has now been delayed approximately one year since it was close to starting at the beginning of 2009. The legal process occurring is the DRAM makers trying to avoid a case the firm believe RMBS has an 80% probability of winning. RMBS shares had been advancing ahead of the trial date on the expectation that there would be no more delays. The news is certainly going to be negative for RMBS shares this morning. The delay removes a catalyst for the stock and puts more emphasis on the ITC trial against NVIDIA (NVDA).


08:45 RMBS Rambus: Capstone Investments discusses push out of RMBS trial date (19.10)

Analysts at Capstone Investments commented, saying, "Judge Kramer felt that beginning trial in '10 was likely the best choice as he didn't believe he could provide Samsung proper time to bring new attorney(s) up to speed, while also avoiding any rollover into holiday season. Given timing of prior Sept. 28th date, any delay in starting trial would likely pose issues in jury selection as holiday period would likely interfere."

On this, Capstone said other than timing they see little impact from yesterday's ruling. They believe RMBS's case remains intact, and see no change in legal position. The firm is reiterating their Strong Buy rating and $60 price target on RMBS.

Capstone thinks that while RMBS's Anti-Trust trial has been the primary focus of investors, its proceedings vs. NVDA in ITC could offer potential near-term catalyst. Commenting, "based on recent ITC Markman ruling, which we view as a significant win for RMBS, we believe NVDA will likely need to settle with RMBS or risk potential injunction, and injunction of its customers (HPQ, MicroStar, Asustek and others). Hearing before Judge Essex is currently scheduled around Oct. 12th. In our opinion, any settlement would likely occur prior to hearing. While not equal in dollar size to upcoming Anti-Trust proceedings, we believe NVDA settlement could equal ~$1B+"


EDIT: Good recovery so far... good lesson on options though, anything can happen which is why you shouldn't bet all on options - holding shares, while being less cost-effective, still means you own the same amount of shares. January options are going haywire with trying to reprice.

 

[JS80]

no buying the dips today...i finally got lucky timing my short last week!

 

[Slew Foot]

Ive been thinking the market peaked for a while (back around 8500), looks like I might finally be right

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Ive been thinking the market peaked for a while (back around 8500), looks like I might finally be right

My buddy who's a market technician is actually predicting S&P to bottom out at 200. I told him he was crazy. Then I was reminded by the fact that in 2007 he predicted we'd be entering a global great depression. I called him crazy back then.

I don't call him crazy anymore.

 

[eLiu]

So why is the market reacting so strongly to a 3 month delay? As far as I can tell, RMBS's case didn't get any weaker b/c the defense has a sick lawyer. Are people worried that RMBS's lawyers have something to hide, haven't gotten things figured out, or are otherwise incompetent? (You know, just a list of negative responses to "Why would RMBS quietly acquiesce to the delay?") Are people just tired of waiting (this trial has been long in the making) and this was the last straw?

Like I'm not quite seeing what's so terrible about a delay. Couldn't it also be a good thing? Give the judge time to go "omgwtf" at all the defense's motions or give RMBS more time to prepare/strengthen or something...?

 

[Slew Foot]

I dont think the delay ahs any effect on RMBS long term, its just that there are soooo many speculators onboard, both in options and shares, that people are likely to react very strongly to any news.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: eLiu
So why is the market reacting so strongly to a 3 month delay? As far as I can tell, RMBS's case didn't get any weaker b/c the defense has a sick lawyer. Are people worried that RMBS's lawyers have something to hide, haven't gotten things figured out, or are otherwise incompetent? (You know, just a list of negative responses to "Why would RMBS quietly acquiesce to the delay?") Are people just tired of waiting (this trial has been long in the making) and this was the last straw?

Like I'm not quite seeing what's so terrible about a delay. Couldn't it also be a good thing? Give the judge time to go "omgwtf" at all the defense's motions or give RMBS more time to prepare/strengthen or something...?

It's just he buyers that were there solely in anticipation of a September trial are exiting. Time is money. It's just going back to June levels (3 months ago), now that it's 3 months from trial date.

 

[zimu]

any stock recommendations for today after yesterday's crash? thinking C.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
I dont think the delay ahs any effect on RMBS long term, its just that there are soooo many speculators onboard, both in options and shares, that people are likely to react very strongly to any news.

That's exactly it. There were so many people betting on the outcome. The January option interest were through the roof. Now that they know the AT won't be decided by then, everyone dumps Jan options.