Originally posted by: Naustica
Another great day for the financials. Wachovia has been on a tear the past couple days. Wish I still had those calls.Everyday it's looking more like the bottom was July 15. So far everything is playing to script like I pictured. We put in the bottom, hard rally, retest with the low holding, and now the rally back up. The question in the coming weeks will be when to jump off this bear market rally. I still plan on being mostly out of the market and in cash come Sept/Oct.
Ugly numbers from car makers today. CarMax closed up.
3-4 days of rallying while the rest of the market went to the crapper with no explanation as to why WB was going up until today. If the rumors of the buyout turns out false, WB will probably tank again.
I posted these questions in a separate thread in OT, but it didn't receive any replies. I know some of you who frequent this thread can answer my questions, so I'll try posting it here:
I have some questions about using Google Finance.
Let me use an example. Here is a link showing the YTD (at close on Friday, 7/25/08) performance of Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund:
link
For the numbers under the "Trailing Total Returns" column - do they include reinvested dividends? Have turnover expenses already been subtracted?
What about the red return number in the top right hand corner of the chart (-12.36%)? Does it include reinvested dividends? Have turnover expenses already been subtracted?
Also, why does the YTD number under the "Trailing Total Returns" heading (-11.60%) not match the return number on the chart itself (-12.36%), even though they both depict the same time range?
Finally, here's an example that shows 2 funds on the same chart:
link
Now the Y axis has switched from showing prices to percentages. Do these percentages include reinvested dividends? Have turnover expenses already been subtracted?
Depending on the actual date you view my post, the YTD numbers on Google Finance may not match up with what I posted above, although my questions would still be valid.
I have some questions about using Google Finance.
Let me use an example. Here is a link showing the YTD (at close on Friday, 7/25/08) performance of Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund:
link
For the numbers under the "Trailing Total Returns" column - do they include reinvested dividends? Have turnover expenses already been subtracted?
What about the red return number in the top right hand corner of the chart (-12.36%)? Does it include reinvested dividends? Have turnover expenses already been subtracted?
Also, why does the YTD number under the "Trailing Total Returns" heading (-11.60%) not match the return number on the chart itself (-12.36%), even though they both depict the same time range?
Finally, here's an example that shows 2 funds on the same chart:
link
Now the Y axis has switched from showing prices to percentages. Do these percentages include reinvested dividends? Have turnover expenses already been subtracted?
Depending on the actual date you view my post, the YTD numbers on Google Finance may not match up with what I posted above, although my questions would still be valid.
"Fed does something at it's August meeting to give banks unlimited access to magical money or something. "
http://onlinejournal.com/artma...ish/article_3571.shtml
http://onlinejournal.com/artma...ish/article_3571.shtml
her209
No Lifer
- Oct 11, 2000
- 56,336
- 11
- 0
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
As long as you're a shareholder on record at the close of 8/7/08, you'll be paid the dividend. You can sell anytime after that and you'll get your dividend on 9/1/08.
In theory, the stock price should drop $.14 on 8/7/08. But the dividend is so small that it'll likely be hidden in the normal day stock trading range.
no, I am surprised a big company like Intel doesn't bother to tell their investors what the ex-div date is...anyway, in order to be on the record that you are a shareholder, you need to buy their stocks 3 days before, so you need to buy it on 8/4/08 the latest in order to be on the 8/7/08 record. So 8/5 should be the ex-div date, the day without the dividend.
for doc purpose only...bought about 20k shares of MYST.OB at avg of .13cent/sh, do your own DD, you might like what you see, I know I did. The only thing that I don't like is the past business models and the daily vol is low, this might be a good thing, if this takes off...
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
Sold the CarMax trading shares at $15. That's 3 for 3. Plan to hit the well again. I'll milk it until it stops working.
Still holding Citi calls. I think Citi will test $22.
DBA, I'm going have to sell and eat the loss. Chart is broken and I think commodities will follow oil lower to $100. Bullish for food packagers.
As long as dow holds 11,135, s&p 1235, and bkx 60, I'll trade from long side of this rally.
Still holding Citi calls. I think Citi will test $22.
DBA, I'm going have to sell and eat the loss. Chart is broken and I think commodities will follow oil lower to $100. Bullish for food packagers.
As long as dow holds 11,135, s&p 1235, and bkx 60, I'll trade from long side of this rally.
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
The range I play is $13 to 15. Only the first time did I buy under $12 at $11.77. That was my double down purchase the day after the market bottom. I sold those shares at $15.40. The second trip I bought at $12.83 and sold at $15. This last trip I bought at $13 and sold today at $15. This stock has resistance at around $15.50 and good support at around $13. I'm not trying to catch the absolute top or bottom of the move so each retest, I've shortened the range. This last trip lot size was smaller because I got cute trying to catch the low and only made partial buy. But that's fine because I'm now going to play with smaller lot size since I'm up decent on the position and there's no point in trying to hit a homerun each time. Everytime stock test the support and resistance, it weakens so it could break one way or the other soon.
I didn't play both ways. If I did, I would've made a killing. But that's too aggressive for me and I didn't have the balls to do that.
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
Can you smell the performance anxiety of people and funds that doubted this rally and missed out? I read that the hedge funds had their worst month of the year in July. Probably got eaten up by their long energy/commodities and short financial pair trades. Can't say I have any sympathy for them. I wonder if they're still short this rally or shorting into this. They along with sideline people who missed this rally could give this more leg. Remember how painful and wrong it felt on the downside? It needs to get that way on the rebound and people have to feel giddy and overconfident. We're still not there yet so uptrend remains intact.
I sold DBA for $1/shr loss. I'll revisit the name. Sold 13% of my core CarMax holding at $15.40. I plan on scaling out in interval if and when it moves higher. I'll still keep some shares but I want to stick with my gameplan of being cash heavy come Sept/Oct. Also sold the Citigroup calls for 50% profit. I still think Citi will test $22 during this rally but it was a trade and discipline dictates I take profits, especially after move like today by the overall market.
I wonder if they're still short this rally or shorting into this. They along with sideline people who missed this rally could give this more leg. Remember how painful and wrong it felt on the downside? It needs to get that way on the rebound and people have to feel giddy and overconfident. We're still not there yet so uptrend remains intact.I sold DBA for $1/shr loss. I'll revisit the name. Sold 13% of my core CarMax holding at $15.40. I plan on scaling out in interval if and when it moves higher. I'll still keep some shares but I want to stick with my gameplan of being cash heavy come Sept/Oct. Also sold the Citigroup calls for 50% profit. I still think Citi will test $22 during this rally but it was a trade and discipline dictates I take profits, especially after move like today by the overall market.
ponyo
Lifer
- Feb 14, 2002
- 19,688
- 2,811
- 126
It's better to be lucky than smart. My GTC order hit and I bought CarMax this morning in the premarket at $13 and $12.50. I wasn't expecting to get hit so soon. I didn't know I bought the shares until I checked for market status late this afternoon. I was busy this morning and didn't have the time to read the news and check the premarket like I always do.
I didn't like what I read when I got home. I knew CarMax business was terrible and figured on bad numbers. What I wasn't expecting was slowdown of their expansion plan. The growth story was what interested me about the company. The delay and slowdown in new store openings is a real deal breaker. I'm disappointed and this stock will no longer be in my longterm account. I will sell out of the position completely if and when it fills the gap back to $18 and in meantime will keep making partial sell into any rise.
I didn't like what I read when I got home. I knew CarMax business was terrible and figured on bad numbers. What I wasn't expecting was slowdown of their expansion plan. The growth story was what interested me about the company. The delay and slowdown in new store openings is a real deal breaker. I'm disappointed and this stock will no longer be in my longterm account. I will sell out of the position completely if and when it fills the gap back to $18 and in meantime will keep making partial sell into any rise.
If playing a trading range is yer thang, then better to do so with a company that is unlikely to implode. For instance, the aforementioned INTC -which happens to be oddly strong at the mo' against the general market. Broken through resistance and heading back to 25 short-term?
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Ah, a Citi analyst says chip package orders for Atom are ten times higher than expected. AMD and other semis are being carried along for the ride rather amazingly in the face of a general down day.
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Ah, a Citi analyst says chip package orders for Atom are ten times higher than expected. AMD and other semis are being carried along for the ride rather amazingly in the face of a general down day.
Intel is the 2nd best tech stock to own on the market (IMO).
Unfortunately, I only have room for 1 tech stock. Intel doesn't make the cut.
Oh, and I don't care about reading resistance, break outs, technical analysis etc...
Never have, and never will.
There are good tech stocks to own.
Stay with those that actually have a moat. That means HPQ, INTC, MSFT and IBM.
Stay away from those that are either over-hyped, or don't make any sense, or both. That means GOOG, CSCO, RIMM, AAPL, and pretty much almost anything else.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...cEY7ExeSqKA&refer=home
MSFT is the cheapest it's been since it's IPO. They might do a $20 billion buyback this quarter.
Ja, so-called charting on its own is certainly missing the forest for the trees, as 'twere. However if trading at all then it behooves us to be attentive to activity. Look at INTC the last five years, or even ten if discounting the internets bubble bobble, and it has clearly not been good to hold long term however it has been great for medium term trading with about as little risk as there can be.
Given that assurance, even this year it has been easy to buy during the panics (I mentioned earlier that the $18-20 range looked like a bargoon). As for when to sell, well, there was certainly that strong resistance at $25 which when combined with market sentiment allowed being quite content when stopped out on the way back down. Rinse and repeat for 20-25% twice. Although if the market does not implode it could potentially manage higher this time as we enter the traditionally stronger season for tech and the company really is doing well -with the anti-trust investigations being the only blight.
Given that assurance, even this year it has been easy to buy during the panics (I mentioned earlier that the $18-20 range looked like a bargoon). As for when to sell, well, there was certainly that strong resistance at $25 which when combined with market sentiment allowed being quite content when stopped out on the way back down. Rinse and repeat for 20-25% twice. Although if the market does not implode it could potentially manage higher this time as we enter the traditionally stronger season for tech and the company really is doing well -with the anti-trust investigations being the only blight.
My call for the coming week: ASFX. I'm in at .004, and around 100% profit for the week. Again, ASFX. This has run to .025 twice in the last few months and may be heading there again soon.
of course, do your own due diligence,
of course, do your own due diligence,
Meh, why gamble on dodgy companies? Following simple trends such as financials and oil/airlines has netted returns of 50-500% in three weeks.
Apparently oil is becoming so cheap now that solar has lost its relevance
I don't claim to be no Kreskin, but the risk/reward ratio is looking good for some of the better names like SOL. Plus, that has got to be one of the best symbols perhaps bettered only by POS. And if whimsy is not a solid investment strategy I do not know what is.
The market is rallying again today. I know that no one can consistently predict the direction of the stock market, but does anyone here believe we have already hit the bottom?
IHateMyJob2004
Lifer
- Sep 29, 2004
- 18,656
- 68
- 91
The problem with tech is that you don't know who will be around long term. For all I know, Apple will take over and PCs will become the thing of history museums. Case in point, 10 years ago would you have thought that Apple of all companies would have the number one portable music device? In the early 90s, IBM was big. What the heck was Dell and HPQ?
Tech changes to fast. You can not reliably predict the future. If you can not do that, how can you value a tech company?
Sorry Lothar. I think you are opne of the better investors on Anandtech but I disagree on tech.
With so many industries why not pick something with more certainty?
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