***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: vi edit

Originally posted by: ricochet
GM is at its 53 year low (and that's not even adjusted for inflation). Dayum. Come on Alan Mullaly(sp?), put some of that compensation bonuses back into the company.

At a 7% dividend, that's tempting.

That 7% is good as GM pension. GM is in major trouble and it's one time I agree with the analcyst at Goldman. Goldman is actually breaking rank and telling like it is on couple of stocks today which was refreshing. They gained lot of respect from me.

GM needs capital infusion and market for capital raising is nearly shut. It's going to have to pay insane price to get the capital. Even then it might not be able to get it if the credit market conditions keep deteriorating. When I considered shorting GE at around $30 couple weeks ago, GM and GE were the two names rumored to looking to raise capital.

Where did you hear that GE needs to raise capital? Link?
AFAIK, they're still sitting on $15.29B in cash alone.

If they write off 17% of intangible/goodwill their entire shareholder value erodes. Check out their balance sheet. $700+ BILLION in liabilities and $68 billion of current assets. They are in dangerous territory.

 

[lucasorion]

thanks for the info - do you think I would be better off getting some EP (El Paso) stocks or something similar, instead of any wind/solar energy stocks? I'm thinking about getting something I'll hold for the next several years, probably.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: lucasorion
thanks for the info - do you think I would be better off getting some EP (El Paso) stocks or something similar, instead of any wind/solar energy stocks? I'm thinking about getting something I'll hold for the next several years, probably.

We are in the beginning of a bear market. No stock is a buy right now. Commodities (EP does natural gas) is currently in a bubble so you'd be buying at it's peak. Wind/solar is a fad and will disappear when the subsidies go away unless there is some breakthrough in technology. I would stay in cash right now.

 

[lucasorion]

I've heard good things about OTTR - would it be silly to trade my BWEN shares in for them? I just want to have my foot in the door in case there is a breakthrough in alternative energy, even in this market.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: vi edit

Originally posted by: ricochet
GM is at its 53 year low (and that's not even adjusted for inflation). Dayum. Come on Alan Mullaly(sp?), put some of that compensation bonuses back into the company.

At a 7% dividend, that's tempting.

That 7% is good as GM pension. GM is in major trouble and it's one time I agree with the analcyst at Goldman. Goldman is actually breaking rank and telling like it is on couple of stocks today which was refreshing. They gained lot of respect from me.

GM needs capital infusion and market for capital raising is nearly shut. It's going to have to pay insane price to get the capital. Even then it might not be able to get it if the credit market conditions keep deteriorating. When I considered shorting GE at around $30 couple weeks ago, GM and GE were the two names rumored to looking to raise capital.

Where did you hear that GE needs to raise capital? Link?
AFAIK, they're still sitting on $15.29B in cash alone.

If they write off 17% of intangible/goodwill their entire shareholder value erodes. Check out their balance sheet. $700+ BILLION in liabilities and $68 billion of current assets. They are in dangerous territory.

It still doesn't show that they desperately need to raise capital or that they're starve strapped for cash.
I have yet to examine their SEC filings stuff in detail, but how much of those liabilities are short term vs. long term?
There is a BIG difference between me having to pay $50,000 in school loans due in 3 years vs. 30 years

Besides, I don't see how their balance sheet is any worse than a Goldman Sachs or any of the other major financial banks.

I think GE will still be alive because they're well diversified.
They still have their AAA rating and can get access to capital if they so wish to do so.
The chances of a company like GE cutting their dividend is "almost" zero.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: vi edit

Originally posted by: ricochet
GM is at its 53 year low (and that's not even adjusted for inflation). Dayum. Come on Alan Mullaly(sp?), put some of that compensation bonuses back into the company.

At a 7% dividend, that's tempting.

That 7% is good as GM pension. GM is in major trouble and it's one time I agree with the analcyst at Goldman. Goldman is actually breaking rank and telling like it is on couple of stocks today which was refreshing. They gained lot of respect from me.

GM needs capital infusion and market for capital raising is nearly shut. It's going to have to pay insane price to get the capital. Even then it might not be able to get it if the credit market conditions keep deteriorating. When I considered shorting GE at around $30 couple weeks ago, GM and GE were the two names rumored to looking to raise capital.

Where did you hear that GE needs to raise capital? Link?
AFAIK, they're still sitting on $15.29B in cash alone.

If they write off 17% of intangible/goodwill their entire shareholder value erodes. Check out their balance sheet. $700+ BILLION in liabilities and $68 billion of current assets. They are in dangerous territory.

It still doesn't show that they desperately need to raise capital or that they're starve strapped for cash.
I have yet to examine their SEC filings stuff in detail, but how much of those liabilities are short term vs. long term?
There is a BIG difference between me having to pay $50,000 in school loans due in 3 years vs. 30 years

Besides, I don't see how their balance sheet is any worse than a Goldman Sachs or any of the other major financial banks.

I think GE will still be alive because they're well diversified.
They still have their AAA rating and can get access to capital if they so wish to do so.
The chances of a company like GE cutting their dividend is "almost" zero.

GS's balance sheet is shady as it is. But the issue is the questionable paper sitting on the balance sheet.

Check out GE balance sheet. $68 billion in current assets vs $242 billion in current liabilities. I bet a lot their LT assets need to be written down if corporations start to be delinquent on their capital purchase loans. They are not going to get favorable terms on the replacement of the debt that is become due.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: vi edit

Originally posted by: ricochet
GM is at its 53 year low (and that's not even adjusted for inflation). Dayum. Come on Alan Mullaly(sp?), put some of that compensation bonuses back into the company.

At a 7% dividend, that's tempting.

That 7% is good as GM pension. GM is in major trouble and it's one time I agree with the analcyst at Goldman. Goldman is actually breaking rank and telling like it is on couple of stocks today which was refreshing. They gained lot of respect from me.

GM needs capital infusion and market for capital raising is nearly shut. It's going to have to pay insane price to get the capital. Even then it might not be able to get it if the credit market conditions keep deteriorating. When I considered shorting GE at around $30 couple weeks ago, GM and GE were the two names rumored to looking to raise capital.

Where did you hear that GE needs to raise capital? Link?
AFAIK, they're still sitting on $15.29B in cash alone.

If they write off 17% of intangible/goodwill their entire shareholder value erodes. Check out their balance sheet. $700+ BILLION in liabilities and $68 billion of current assets. They are in dangerous territory.

It still doesn't show that they desperately need to raise capital or that they're starve strapped for cash.
I have yet to examine their SEC filings stuff in detail, but how much of those liabilities are short term vs. long term?
There is a BIG difference between me having to pay $50,000 in school loans due in 3 years vs. 30 years

Besides, I don't see how their balance sheet is any worse than a Goldman Sachs or any of the other major financial banks.

I think GE will still be alive because they're well diversified.
They still have their AAA rating and can get access to capital if they so wish to do so.
The chances of a company like GE cutting their dividend is "almost" zero.

GS's balance sheet is shady as it is. But the issue is the questionable paper sitting on the balance sheet.

Check out GE balance sheet. $68 billion in current assets vs $242 billion in current liabilities. I bet a lot their LT assets need to be written down if corporations start to be delinquent on their capital purchase loans. They are not going to get favorable terms on the replacement of the debt that is become due.

They had stated in the past that they do not like to keep too much in cash and short-term investment vehicles. They have $455 billion in long-term investments. When looking at total assets against total liability, they are net asset positive.

There's no doubt GE's last earning was a bit of a surprise, but we're not talking about an overnight company here. They STILL made $4.3 billion dollars last quarter. This quarter's earnings is coming up in a few weeks and they guidance was very conservative. I'm willing to bet (or have bet) that they will have an upside surprise.

But WTF do we all know. We can only go by current data and the company hasn't offered any intermin guidance. Lets see what they say.

 

[Pliablemoose]

PAAS

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
PAAS

One of those stocks that got away from me. I bought this stock in 2003 or 2004 for under $7. Sold it about some months later for a small profit. Obviously sold it wayyy too early, if only I had known the commodity markets were in the beginning of a boom, lol.

 

[ponyo]

I'm planning to buy some call option tomorrow on Wachovia or SunTrust. Probably will buy Wachovia since it's beaten down more. I know BKX broke the 60 level but I think banks are due for a bounce.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
PAAS

One of those stocks that got away from me. I bought this stock in 2003 or 2004 for under $7. Sold it about some months later for a small profit. Obviously sold it wayyy too early, if only I had known the commodity markets were in the beginning of a boom, lol.

If inflation keeps up, and oil keeps going up (my balls shrink when I hear $170-200/bbl) commodities are going to be the only play

We're talking Mad Max, Lord of the Flies shit here folks... The Fed won't intervene decisively till after the election...

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Naustica
I'm planning to buy some call option tomorrow on Wachovia or SunTrust. Probably will buy Wachovia since it's beaten down more. I know BKX broke the 60 level but I think banks are due for a bounce.

Uhhh no. Wachovia is at risk of going broke. They have more write offs and need capital. My friend works at Wachovia - it's a fucking mess over there. They aren't letting anyone sell loans and there is no clear direction.

As for GE, my bet is they will lower dividends and their assets will come into question and the stock will continue it's further slide.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Naustica
I'm planning to buy some call option tomorrow on Wachovia or SunTrust. Probably will buy Wachovia since it's beaten down more. I know BKX broke the 60 level but I think banks are due for a bounce.

Uhhh no. Wachovia is at risk of going broke. They have more write offs and need capital. My friend works at Wachovia - it's a fucking mess over there. They aren't letting anyone sell loans and there is no clear direction.

As for GE, my bet is they will lower dividends and their assets will come into question and the stock will continue it's further slide.

It's a trade, not investment. WB stinks the worst, so that's why I'm buying it. You got to zig when everyone zags. It's near end of the quarter. Hedge funds have been shorting the crap out of banks like Wachovia while riding up betas and commodities. But redemptions are hitting hedge funds and they have to unwind some trades. I think potential short covering from this unwind combined with any good news or uptick could lead to quick reversal pop.

I got my order for 10 Oct 17.5 calls at $2.35 and another 10 for $1.90. We'll see if I get hit.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Looks like another 1% drop in the equities again today.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Looks like another 1% drop in the equities again today.

Ugh, ugly futures this morning. 3rd quarter starting out with a bang! :shocked:

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Looks like another 1% drop in the equities again today.

Ugh, ugly futures this morning. 3rd quarter starting out with a bang! :shocked:

It's Turnaround Tuesday. You want to see ugly futures and big down open. It's a good thing. Nothing worse than to open up slightly and drift down lower in the session to close at the session low.

They don't call it Turnaround Tuesday for a reason. If we get a big drop down and a reversal positive close, expect the talking heads to start calling for a short term bottom.

I've my order to buy some calls into this ugliness. I'm already dead so what's another cut.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

GE is not going to reduce the dividend. They have credit problems, but 70% of their business creates cash flows so they will not need to raise capital.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I'm up $3k already AUY, GG, PAAS

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
GE is not going to reduce the dividend. They have credit problems, but 70% of their business creates cash flows so they will not need to raise capital.

:thumbsup:

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Looks like another 1% drop in the equities again today.

Ugh, ugly futures this morning. 3rd quarter starting out with a bang! :shocked:

It's Turnaround Tuesday. You want to see ugly futures and big down open. It's a good thing. Nothing worse than to open up slightly and drift down lower in the session to close at the session low.

They don't call it Turnaround Tuesday for a reason. If we get a big drop down and a reversal positive close, expect the talking heads to start calling for a short term bottom.

I've my order to buy some calls into this ugliness. I'm already dead so what's another cut.

Well, I don't want to jinx it, but if it closes at this level it would be the standard Turnaround Tuesday we were (or at least me) hoping for.

I already bought what I can buy. Now I have to follow Mr. Market's mood swings.

 

[oznerol]

I very much enjoy this thread. I'm glad it's posted in regularly now.

 

[alphatarget1]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Looks like another 1% drop in the equities again today.

Ugh, ugly futures this morning. 3rd quarter starting out with a bang! :shocked:

It's Turnaround Tuesday. You want to see ugly futures and big down open. It's a good thing. Nothing worse than to open up slightly and drift down lower in the session to close at the session low.

They don't call it Turnaround Tuesday for a reason. If we get a big drop down and a reversal positive close, expect the talking heads to start calling for a short term bottom.

I've my order to buy some calls into this ugliness. I'm already dead so what's another cut.

Well, I don't want to jinx it, but if it closes at this level it would be the standard Turnaround Tuesday we were (or at least me) hoping for.

I already bought what I can buy. Now I have to follow Mr. Market's mood swings.

Didn't you short USO? How is that going?

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: alphatarget1

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose
Looks like another 1% drop in the equities again today.

Ugh, ugly futures this morning. 3rd quarter starting out with a bang! :shocked:

It's Turnaround Tuesday. You want to see ugly futures and big down open. It's a good thing. Nothing worse than to open up slightly and drift down lower in the session to close at the session low.

They don't call it Turnaround Tuesday for a reason. If we get a big drop down and a reversal positive close, expect the talking heads to start calling for a short term bottom.

I've my order to buy some calls into this ugliness. I'm already dead so what's another cut.

Well, I don't want to jinx it, but if it closes at this level it would be the standard Turnaround Tuesday we were (or at least me) hoping for.

I already bought what I can buy. Now I have to follow Mr. Market's mood swings.

Didn't you short USO? How is that going?

Yes, I didn't get $10k worth though, $6.5k at alittle above $110. Looking at it early this morning, it was trading around $115 give or take, so not good so far? :brokenheart:

Surprisingly, my 401k and ROTH IRA didn't take too much of a hit last month. It's solidly outperforming the indices, losing only half as much... although that's not really comforting.

My other brokerage accounts... well, that's a different story. I'm doing a little bit worse than the market, due mainly to the whacky buy earlier this year and my core portfoilio's blue chips are down considerably.

You can look at the first post where I keep monthly track of the 4 major indices along with my retirement and non-retirement accounts.

For instance, this was how June ended:

June 2008 YTD:

DJIA = 11,346 / -14.5 %
Nasdaq = 2,315 / -12.7 %
S&P 500 = 1,278 / -12.9 %
Russell 2000 = 698 / -8.9 %
Azurik's Retirement = -5.8%
Azurik's Non-Retirement = -18.2%

This was last year's performances:

Year 2007:

DJIA = 13,365 / 6.4%
Nasdaq = 2,674 / 9.8%
S&P 500 = 1,478 / 3.5%
Azurik's Retirement = 10.7%
Azurik's Non-Retirement = 23.1%

 

[Pliablemoose]

I can't find out why AUY dropped today, GG & PAAS were up nicely...

 

[alphatarget1]

Starbucks went back down again... is it a good buy still?