***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: vi edit

Originally posted by: ricochet
GM is at its 53 year low (and that's not even adjusted for inflation). Dayum. Come on Alan Mullaly(sp?), put some of that compensation bonuses back into the company.

At a 7% dividend, that's tempting.

That 7% is good as GM pension. GM is in major trouble and it's one time I agree with the analcyst at Goldman. Goldman is actually breaking rank and telling like it is on couple of stocks today which was refreshing. They gained lot of respect from me.

GM needs capital infusion and market for capital raising is nearly shut. It's going to have to pay insane price to get the capital. Even then it might not be able to get it if the credit market conditions keep deteriorating. When I considered shorting GE at around $30 couple weeks ago, GM and GE were the two names rumored to looking to raise capital.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Lothar
"There's no reason we should become fearful if a stock goes down. If a stock goes down 50%, I'd look forward to it. In fact, I would offer you a significant sum of money if you could give me the opportunity for all of my stocks to go down 50% over the next month."
-Warren Buffett, 2008 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting

Yup. That's why I'm more excited today than I've been in some time. Bleeding from thousand cuts is much more painful than justing getting the arm chopped off.

My value names have already suffered the haircut. Of course it can still get additional cut but nothing like the momo betas are going to suffer. Nothing ever bottoms without everything getting hit and we saw some of that with the betas today. Good tradeable rally is coming. You just have to hold in your vomit and hold your nose and buy when it seems the darkest. We might get that if the BKX and S&P break.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: Capitalizt
Gold looking pretty good about now eh permabulls?

Yep, I'm up ~$9K today

I keep trying to tell people we're fucked, and it's gonna take a meltdown to prove it.

The regional banks are going to start folding, there's more residential mortgages to hit the fan, and the commercial shit hasn't even begun to register.

The market will be going sideways or down for another year or 2 minimum.

 

[ViperVin2]

WTF happened today. I get off work and see my whole portfolio in the red. First time ever since I started to invest that my overall return is in the red. This is NOT cool.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Lothar
"There's no reason we should become fearful if a stock goes down. If a stock goes down 50%, I'd look forward to it. In fact, I would offer you a significant sum of money if you could give me the opportunity for all of my stocks to go down 50% over the next month."
-Warren Buffett, 2008 Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting

Yup. That's why I'm more excited today than I've been in some time. Bleeding from thousand cuts is much more painful than justing getting the arm chopped off.

My value names have already suffered the haircut. Of course it can still get additional cut but nothing like the momo betas are going to suffer. Nothing ever bottoms without everything getting hit and we saw some of that with the betas today. Good tradeable rally is coming. You just have to hold in your vomit and hold your nose and buy when it seems the darkest. We might get that if the BKX and S&P break.

I agree with you on tradeable rally... the stock market hasn't reach capitulation yet. The volitility indicator (read: fear) is bouncing between the 20's... we need it to hit the high 40's/low 50's for that to happen.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: ViperVin2
WTF happened today. I get off work and see my whole portfolio in the red. First time ever since I started to invest that my overall return is in the red. This is NOT cool.

My 5 year old Roth IRA (dollar cost averaged for 5 years in a broad range of funds including international, US, S&P, natural resources (oil), and one that I forget just turned overall RED (again). Market has been going like a Yo-Yo for nearly a decade...and people roasted me over paying off my 7% mortgage 24 years early and not investing in the market...well to that, I say suck it!!! :Q

 

[hiromizu]

I think I lost about 9 billion today.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: vi edit

Originally posted by: ricochet
GM is at its 53 year low (and that's not even adjusted for inflation). Dayum. Come on Alan Mullaly(sp?), put some of that compensation bonuses back into the company.

At a 7% dividend, that's tempting.

That 7% is good as GM pension. GM is in major trouble and it's one time I agree with the analyst at Goldman. Goldman is actually breaking rank and telling like it is on couple of stocks today which was refreshing. They gained lot of respect from me.

It doesn't take an analyst to figure out that GM and Ford has been(and will continue to be) dead money for years.
It took Goldman this long? If anything, I'm surprised.


Wasn't it just a few weeks/month ago that Goldman analysts rated the financial sector a buy?
Just last week, Merrill was screaming capitulation.
More than anything now, I'm questioning their judgments.

It seems to me those analysts just go with the flow of the market.
When a stock has fallen 50%, analysts slap a sell rating on it. When the same stock has risen 50%, they slap a buy rating on it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=GM
UBS and JPMorgan still rates GM a buy :roll:

 

[Ricochet]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: ricochet
GM is at its 53 year low (and that's not even adjusted for inflation). Dayum. Come on Alan Mullaly(sp?), put some of that compensation bonuses back into the company.

Mullaly is at Ford, not GM

Whoops. You're right. These domestic car companies are all the same.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: ViperVin2
WTF happened today. I get off work and see my whole portfolio in the red. First time ever since I started to invest that my overall return is in the red. This is NOT cool.

My 5 year old Roth IRA (dollar cost averaged for 5 years in a broad range of funds including international, US, S&P, natural resources (oil), and one that I forget just turned overall RED (again). Market has been going like a Yo-Yo for nearly a decade...and people roasted me over paying off my 7% mortgage 24 years early and not investing in the market...well to that, I say suck it!!! :Q

haha. I hear you. I had a chance to pay off my mortgage after one year into it. I decided against it because I figured I could make far superior return from the market. My strategy worked beautifully for couple of years before I almost lost my shirt from the collapse of the .bombs. It took me years to recover and I'm still not back to the height of the .com days. Early this year I decided to bite the bullet and finally pay off my mortgage. I tell you I sleep like a baby at night.

Everytime people like Spidey and others scream it's throwing money away to pay off the mortgage instead of investing, I just laugh and smile. Being mortgage free in the 30's gives you lot of time and money to invest. Not only that, I don't think you can put any premium of the peace of mind it gives you. Cheers, Engineer! :beer: You inspired me to pay mine off too.

 

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: vi edit

Originally posted by: ricochet
GM is at its 53 year low (and that's not even adjusted for inflation). Dayum. Come on Alan Mullaly(sp?), put some of that compensation bonuses back into the company.

At a 7% dividend, that's tempting.

That 7% is good as GM pension. GM is in major trouble and it's one time I agree with the analyst at Goldman. Goldman is actually breaking rank and telling like it is on couple of stocks today which was refreshing. They gained lot of respect from me.

It doesn't take an analyst to figure out that GM and Ford has been(and will continue to be) dead money for years.
It took Goldman this long? If anything, I'm surprised.


Wasn't it just a few weeks/month ago that Goldman analysts rated the financial sector a buy?
Just last week, Merrill was screaming capitulation.
More than anything now, I'm questioning their judgments.

It seems to me those analysts just go with the flow of the market.
When a stock has fallen 50%, analysts slap a sell rating on it. When the same stock has risen 50%, they slap a buy rating on it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=GM
UBS and JPMorgan still rates GM a buy :roll:

It's better late than never. Why do you think I call them analcyst? GM bonds are paying 14% yield. It's impossible for GM to raise new capital and actually survive if it has to pay that high. They would actually have to price the new stuff even higher if they can even get a bid which is highly unlikely. GM is toast. It pains me as an American and GM consumer. I figured they could just float along and survive somehow but I don't think that's possible now.

I usually do the opposite of analcyst and prefer if the stock I'm holding has negative analcyst coverage as that just mean they have to upgrade at much higher price , but I think Goldman has this right. Yes, they are late to the party. But like I said, it's better late than never.

 

[JS80]

Citigroup and/or Wachovia to go bk within 1.5 years. Mark my post.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80
Citigroup and/or Wachovia to go bk within 1.5 years. Mark my post.

Marked

If it makes anyone feel better... I lost about $7,000 today. Even my bonds haven't been cushioning my losses that much (even hurting me) on equity down days. The fear of inflation has bond prices falling the past month or so, it's only stablizing a tiny bit now.

I finished my buying position with GE. Lets see what they announce in two weeks when earnings come around, or if they preannounce anything before that. Meanwhile, the dividend yield of 4.6% should help offset some losses in between.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
Citigroup and/or Wachovia to go bk within 1.5 years. Mark my post.

Marked

If it makes anyone feel better... I lost about $7,000 today. Even my bonds haven't been cushioning my losses that much (even hurting me) on equity down days. The fear of inflation has bond prices falling the past month or so, it's only stablizing a tiny bit now.

I finished my buying position with GE. Lets see what they announce in two weeks when earnings come around, or if they preannounce anything before that.

eh, first rule of market timing don't catch a falling knife

the market has a ways more to go down. There is at least 1 huge shoe drop before it hits bottom.

 

[ViperVin2]

Originally posted by: JS80
Citigroup and/or Wachovia to go bk within 1.5 years. Mark my post.

What?!? Does 'bk' stand for bankrupt? ~15% of my portfolio is of C and WB.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: ViperVin2

Originally posted by: JS80
Citigroup and/or Wachovia to go bk within 1.5 years. Mark my post.

What?!? Does 'bk' stand for bankrupt? ~15% of my portfolio is of C and WB.

Yes, bankruptcy. Their balance sheet is toxic. When LBOs start failing Citibank is fucked. My ibanking friends are telling me LBO paper is PIKing already. When that shit gets called it's another round of write offs and bks.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Lothar

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: vi edit

Originally posted by: ricochet
GM is at its 53 year low (and that's not even adjusted for inflation). Dayum. Come on Alan Mullaly(sp?), put some of that compensation bonuses back into the company.

At a 7% dividend, that's tempting.

That 7% is good as GM pension. GM is in major trouble and it's one time I agree with the analyst at Goldman. Goldman is actually breaking rank and telling like it is on couple of stocks today which was refreshing. They gained lot of respect from me.

It doesn't take an analyst to figure out that GM and Ford has been(and will continue to be) dead money for years.
It took Goldman this long? If anything, I'm surprised.


Wasn't it just a few weeks/month ago that Goldman analysts rated the financial sector a buy?
Just last week, Merrill was screaming capitulation.
More than anything now, I'm questioning their judgments.

It seems to me those analysts just go with the flow of the market.
When a stock has fallen 50%, analysts slap a sell rating on it. When the same stock has risen 50%, they slap a buy rating on it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=GM
UBS and JPMorgan still rates GM a buy :roll:

It's better late than never. Why do you think I call them analcyst? GM bonds are paying 14% yield. It's impossible for GM to raise new capital and actually survive if it has to pay that high. They would actually have to price the new stuff even higher if they can even get a bid which is highly unlikely. GM is toast. It pains me as an American and GM consumer. I figured they could just float along and survive somehow but I don't think that's possible now.

I usually do the opposite of analcyst and prefer if the stock I'm holding has negative analcyst coverage as that just mean they have to upgrade at much higher price , but I think Goldman has this right. Yes, they are late to the party. But like I said, it's better late than never.

I figured you made a spelling mistake which was why I corrected it in my reply.
:laugh:

That's one of the reasons why I love Leucadia National.
They're free from all those analyst coverage, company guidance, and earnings estimate crap.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: ViperVin2

Originally posted by: JS80
Citigroup and/or Wachovia to go bk within 1.5 years. Mark my post.

What?!? Does 'bk' stand for bankrupt? ~15% of my portfolio is of C and WB.

lol...

 

[lucasorion]

Anybody care to critique my first baby steps into building an investment portfolio? (previously only owned a little AMD and SIRI stock)
Current holdings: SIRI (too low to sell at this point), BWEN & ABB (speculating on alternative energy a little) and a monthly plan that buys SPY, GLD, and AGG. I'm thinking about GE, maybe waiting to see if I can get it at $25 per share.

 

[TuxDave]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: ViperVin2
WTF happened today. I get off work and see my whole portfolio in the red. First time ever since I started to invest that my overall return is in the red. This is NOT cool.

My 5 year old Roth IRA (dollar cost averaged for 5 years in a broad range of funds including international, US, S&P, natural resources (oil), and one that I forget just turned overall RED (again). Market has been going like a Yo-Yo for nearly a decade...and people roasted me over paying off my 7% mortgage 24 years early and not investing in the market...well to that, I say suck it!!! :Q

Yeah, now I don't feel so bad for paying off my car loan and school loans early.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JS80
Citigroup and/or Wachovia to go bk within 1.5 years. Mark my post.

Marked

If it makes anyone feel better... I lost about $7,000 today. Even my bonds haven't been cushioning my losses that much (even hurting me) on equity down days. The fear of inflation has bond prices falling the past month or so, it's only stablizing a tiny bit now.

I finished my buying position with GE. Lets see what they announce in two weeks when earnings come around, or if they preannounce anything before that.

eh, first rule of market timing don't catch a falling knife

the market has a ways more to go down. There is at least 1 huge shoe drop before it hits bottom.

I don't time markets, not usually anyways or when it comes to long-term b&h's Sometimes catching knives pays off in quick plays like ETFC we both did late last year, and sometimes catching knives is just buying companies one feels is undervalued. It may not be the lowest price, but it's a valued price.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: ViperVin2

Originally posted by: JS80
Citigroup and/or Wachovia to go bk within 1.5 years. Mark my post.

What?!? Does 'bk' stand for bankrupt? ~15% of my portfolio is of C and WB.

Yes, bankruptcy. Their balance sheet is toxic. When LBOs start failing Citibank is fucked. My ibanking friends are telling me LBO paper is PIKing already. When that shit gets called it's another round of write offs and bks.

Let me reword, bankruptcy OR get rescued. Either way equity holders will get analed. And the middle east oil money isn't putting anymore into citibank. Jan 2010 5 puts for 35cents for hedging.

 

[imported_Lothar]

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: vi edit

Originally posted by: ricochet
GM is at its 53 year low (and that's not even adjusted for inflation). Dayum. Come on Alan Mullaly(sp?), put some of that compensation bonuses back into the company.

At a 7% dividend, that's tempting.

That 7% is good as GM pension. GM is in major trouble and it's one time I agree with the analcyst at Goldman. Goldman is actually breaking rank and telling like it is on couple of stocks today which was refreshing. They gained lot of respect from me.

GM needs capital infusion and market for capital raising is nearly shut. It's going to have to pay insane price to get the capital. Even then it might not be able to get it if the credit market conditions keep deteriorating. When I considered shorting GE at around $30 couple weeks ago, GM and GE were the two names rumored to looking to raise capital.

Where did you hear that GE needs to raise capital? Link?
AFAIK, they're still sitting on $15.29B in cash alone.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: lucasorion
Anybody care to critique my first baby steps into building an investment portfolio? (previously only owned a little AMD and SIRI stock)
Current holdings: SIRI (too low to sell at this point), BWEN & ABB (speculating on alternative energy a little) and a monthly plan that buys SPY, GLD, and AGG. I'm thinking about GE, maybe waiting to see if I can get it at $25 per share.

SIRI/XMSR is on track to bankrupt. BWEN will become a penny stock. ABB is solid. SPY will go to 110. GLD might spike one or two more times up before it goes back down eventually to 400-600 range maybe lower. AGG is a bond fund...as fed raises rates it will drop.

I feel like GE always plays earnings management games. But if they have 2 quarters of hiccups and have no more in the reserve they can get pummeled. They are not a good stock to hold right now (no stock is). 11 forward PE is compelling but I think their balance sheet is at risk due to their financing division. If corporate earnings fall their paper assets that aren't A/R can be up for write off.

Edit: Just looked at their balance sheet. They are in dangerous territory. $700+ BILLION in liabilities and $68 billion of current assets. Who knows what is in their LT investments? Probably capital lease purchases? If corporate earnings go down and payments start to default, they have to write off a part of that $455 billion LT asset which can erode their $17 billion in shareholder equity. Also, they have $100 billion in Goodwill and intangible assets. If they end up writing off 17% of that, their shareholder equity goes to $0.

 

[EKKC]

Welcome to recession.