***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

[OS]

cool while we are bragging about returns;
OS's Retirement = .25%
OS's Non-Retirement = 25.5%

ed, that is 2008 YTD

 

[Knightsman]

"I've been heavy on India which should continue its rise for sometime while hedging against dollar with gold heavy international funds. There's also a certain gold mining company which is on its rise. "

what do you buy - direct stock in India? or ETFs?

I myself check with http://www.traderthoughts.com/ before I pull the trigger. Cant say its the best, but have been right on most cases. It used to be free but now they charge, I still think its okay as the amount is less than two set of trades on Ameritrade. I bought and sold AKAM for three times, OVTI for three times profit etc. I did lose money once on DDUP. Currently I own SOHU (bought at $21) based on their recommendation should have sold it at $60, well its still up 200%.

 

[freegeeks]

it's a bloodbath for the moment in Europe, some financials like Fortis are down 6% for the moment

 

[OS]

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/publ...pnav_2_3000&refresh=on

mini crashes around the world today

 

[Slew Foot]

Weird, I was about to start going long on Tuesday, maybe Ill hold off.

Retirement ytd= -4%
non retirement= +80% Puts on BAC, BS, GM FTW!

 

[BarneyFife]

I've gotten torn up on my vanguard energy fund. I've lost like 10% since jan 1st.

The 401k is bad news also.

 

[OS]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Weird, I was about to start going long on Tuesday, maybe Ill hold off.

Retirement ytd= -4%
non retirement= +80% Puts on BAC, BS, GM FTW!

lol nice

 

[Mermaidman]

Bahahaha! So much for safety in int'l. It will become a self-perpetuating cycle.

 

[OS]

Originally posted by: Mermaidman
Bahahaha! So much for safety in int'l. It will become a self-perpetuating cycle.

that was always a myth, pretty much the rest of the world are export driven economies, we take a shit, so does everyone else.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Mermaidman
Bahahaha! So much for safety in int'l. It will become a self-perpetuating cycle.

The only reason why int'l had better returns than US was it's higher risk and declining dollar. The magnitude of int'l stocks will be equally as high on it's way down.

 

[BarneyFife]

Originally posted by: JS80

Originally posted by: Mermaidman
Bahahaha! So much for safety in int'l. It will become a self-perpetuating cycle.

The only reason why int'l had better returns than US was it's higher risk and declining dollar. The magnitude of int'l stocks will be equally as high on it's way down.

Yeah, I agree. Those with 50% invested in international funds are going to start crying pretty soon.

 

[BigJelly]

Originally posted by: freegeeks
it's a bloodbath for the moment in Europe, some financials like Fortis are down 6% for the moment

What do you expect?

Bush's and other politicians' plans are to have congress pass bills/packages.

So given that congress never gets anything done quickly the emergency plan will occur AFTER the emergency; the quickest plans would be in affect in April. Furthermore, a bad economy would guaranty a democrat presidency so what do you think the democrat controlled senate and congress will do? Furthermore, when has congress done anything correctly...

The worst thing in the world to hear is "I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Bernake (spl) isn't doing his job and Europe thought he would have done what Greenspan would have done--cut rates before Jan. 30th. Inflation is in check and the high rates are killing the banks/economy so you cut the rates--Greenspan knows and would have done this. It's obvious Bernake doesn't know what he is doing and Europes reaction proves this.

Europe's reaction is the same reaction as anyone who knows how useless the government and Bernake are.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: BigJelly

Originally posted by: freegeeks
it's a bloodbath for the moment in Europe, some financials like Fortis are down 6% for the moment

. Inflation is in check
Europe's reaction is the same reaction as anyone who knows how useless the government and Bernake are.

No it isn't.

 

[richardycc]

boys and girls, get your Vaseline ready, we might need it!

 

[BarneyFife]

Nikkei is down 4% right now.

Looks like this mess is continuing.

 

[BigJelly]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: BigJelly

Originally posted by: freegeeks
it's a bloodbath for the moment in Europe, some financials like Fortis are down 6% for the moment

. Inflation is in check
Europe's reaction is the same reaction as anyone who knows how useless the government and Bernake are.

No it isn't.

Yes it is

However, excluding volatile food and energy costs, core prices rose 0.2% in December and showed a 2.4% rise for all of 2007 - down from 2.6% in 2006.

Economists said that the inflation data was unlikely to deter the US Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates aggressively at its next meeting.

"What this means for monetary policy, it seems, is that there is some room in there for the Fed to go ahead and cut rates without fear that inflation is going to rear up," said Oscar Gonzalez, an economist at John Hancock in Boston.

The Fed is expected to lower the cost of borrowing by as much as half a percentage point to 3.75% at the end of this month, in an attempt to help spur growth.

So if we actually tapped our (as in US) oil reserves (fuel costs) and got off of the farmers' welfare program know as ethanol (fuel AND food prices). We'd be in great shape. Either way the fed should do its job and cut rates.

 

[Slew Foot]

Core is BS, lets exclude food, energy, housing, education, and health care and stuff people use from the inflation equation. Yeah, that'll work.

At any rate, 2.4% is HIGHER than what the feds want for the BS core rate anyway. They target it to 1-2%.

 

[BarneyFife]

Originally posted by: BigJelly

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: BigJelly

Originally posted by: freegeeks
it's a bloodbath for the moment in Europe, some financials like Fortis are down 6% for the moment

. Inflation is in check
Europe's reaction is the same reaction as anyone who knows how useless the government and Bernake are.

No it isn't.

Yes it is

However, excluding volatile food and energy costs, core prices rose 0.2% in December and showed a 2.4% rise for all of 2007 - down from 2.6% in 2006.

Economists said that the inflation data was unlikely to deter the US Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates aggressively at its next meeting.

"What this means for monetary policy, it seems, is that there is some room in there for the Fed to go ahead and cut rates without fear that inflation is going to rear up," said Oscar Gonzalez, an economist at John Hancock in Boston.

The Fed is expected to lower the cost of borrowing by as much as half a percentage point to 3.75% at the end of this month, in an attempt to help spur growth.

So if we actually tapped our (as in US) oil reserves (fuel costs) and got off of the farmers' welfare program know as ethanol (fuel AND food prices). We'd be in great shape. Either way the fed should do its job and cut rates.

How can we exclude food and energy? Those are the biggest expenses for the average citizen.

 

[Double Trouble]

I hate to join the herd mentality, but at this point I don't think I can stand to stay in the market in a significant way --- I've gone ahead and moved 85% of everything I had in the market to guaranteed-return funds. I'm going to sit on the sidelines and see what shakes out......

 

[blurredvision]

I wish I understood all this stock market bullshit. I'm tired of watching the news and them acting like the world is crashing in and me not knowing if they are telling the truth or just sensationlizing for ratings.

 

[Double Trouble]

Originally posted by: blurredvision
I wish I understood all this stock market bullshit. I'm tired of watching the news and them acting like the world is crashing in and me not knowing if they are telling the truth or just sensationlizing for ratings.

Rest assured, they generally don't have a clue what the heck is going on either. There's lots of guessing and speculating as to what factors drive things, but the bottom line is, there isn't a definitive guide as to what causes things to happen in the markets, it's a combination of many many many factors including human psychology.

Oh, and by the way, my personal opinion is that right now the sky is not "falling", but we are in for some serious economic pain. Basically, the US (and thus world) economy is largely driven by consumer spending. US consumers as a whole spend more each month than they bring in. That's been possible over the past few years because people were able to tap into the ever-rising value of their houses to supplement their income, and people are racking up credit card debt. Now, with the housing market in decline as a result of the subprime fiasco, people can no longer tap into that rising house price, and voila, the economy is going to head south soon unless something drastic changes.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: tagej

Originally posted by: blurredvision
I wish I understood all this stock market bullshit. I'm tired of watching the news and them acting like the world is crashing in and me not knowing if they are telling the truth or just sensationlizing for ratings.

Rest assured, they generally don't have a clue what the heck is going on either. There's lots of guessing and speculating as to what factors drive things, but the bottom line is, there isn't a definitive guide as to what causes things to happen in the markets, it's a combination of many many many factors including human psychology.

Oh, and by the way, my personal opinion is that right now the sky is not "falling", but we are in for some serious economic pain. Basically, the US (and thus world) economy is largely driven by consumer spending. US consumers as a whole spend more each month than they bring in. That's been possible over the past few years because people were able to tap into the ever-rising value of their houses to supplement their income, and people are racking up credit card debt. Now, with the housing market in decline as a result of the subprime fiasco, people can no longer tap into that rising house price, and voila, the economy is going to head south soon unless something drastic changes.

Not to mention that inflation has been outpacing wage increases for nearly 1/2 decade (or more) now for the average US household.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: AznMthr

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Jadow
Azurik, your shlt just doesn't stink.

January 2008 YTD:

DJIA = 12,099 / -8.8 %
Nasdaq = 2,340 / -11.8 %
S&P 500 = 1,325 / -9.8 %
Russell 2000 = 673 / -12.1 %
Azurik's Retirement = -2.5%
Azurik's Non-Retirement = 9.84%

I don't buy it. Shens, I bet you make 150k a year and drive a porsche too.

I don't want to brag, but since you bought it up... I make more than 150k a year - although I don't drive a porsche, just an Acura, Benz and a Lexus. And below are the screen shots from my accounts as of today that ties out to the numbers I posted above:

Retirement.JPG
Non-Retirement.JPG

Oh, and you're right, my shit doesn't stink either.

PWNED!

I always r0x0r people's b0x0rZ when they call shens on me

On a more serious note, my saving grace was moving into PIMCO bonds in December. It saved my retirement portfolio's butt.

I've said before though, market timing is not for us (this includes me!). It's better to stay committed all the way instead of shooting yourself in the foot by selling low and buying high - the exact opposite of what you want to do. I only moved into bonds to have it ready for other buying purposes, I just happened to get into it at the right time.

We'll see how US stocks react tomorrow. If we get another dismal week, I may start putting some cash into work here.

 

[TallBill]

Originally posted by: tagej

Originally posted by: blurredvision
I wish I understood all this stock market bullshit. I'm tired of watching the news and them acting like the world is crashing in and me not knowing if they are telling the truth or just sensationlizing for ratings.

Rest assured, they generally don't have a clue what the heck is going on either. There's lots of guessing and speculating as to what factors drive things, but the bottom line is, there isn't a definitive guide as to what causes things to happen in the markets, it's a combination of many many many factors including human psychology.

Oh, and by the way, my personal opinion is that right now the sky is not "falling", but we are in for some serious economic pain. Basically, the US (and thus world) economy is largely driven by consumer spending. US consumers as a whole spend more each month than they bring in. That's been possible over the past few years because people were able to tap into the ever-rising value of their houses to supplement their income, and people are racking up credit card debt. Now, with the housing market in decline as a result of the subprime fiasco, people can no longer tap into that rising house price, and voila, the economy is going to head south soon unless something drastic changes.

I don't understand this whole "economic pain" stuff. My personal economics have been steady since I started working at 16 and I have not noticed any change in my lifestyle regardless of "the economy" or "gas prices". Maybe I just save more then I spend.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: TallBill

Originally posted by: tagej

Originally posted by: blurredvision
I wish I understood all this stock market bullshit. I'm tired of watching the news and them acting like the world is crashing in and me not knowing if they are telling the truth or just sensationlizing for ratings.

Rest assured, they generally don't have a clue what the heck is going on either. There's lots of guessing and speculating as to what factors drive things, but the bottom line is, there isn't a definitive guide as to what causes things to happen in the markets, it's a combination of many many many factors including human psychology.

Oh, and by the way, my personal opinion is that right now the sky is not "falling", but we are in for some serious economic pain. Basically, the US (and thus world) economy is largely driven by consumer spending. US consumers as a whole spend more each month than they bring in. That's been possible over the past few years because people were able to tap into the ever-rising value of their houses to supplement their income, and people are racking up credit card debt. Now, with the housing market in decline as a result of the subprime fiasco, people can no longer tap into that rising house price, and voila, the economy is going to head south soon unless something drastic changes.

I don't understand this whole "economic pain" stuff. My personal economics have been steady since I started working at 16 and I have not noticed any change in my lifestyle regardless of "the economy" or "gas prices". Maybe I just save more then I spend.

A recession doesn't necessarily affect everyone, and since you save more than you spend, you're in the minority and can better weather a bad life event. The heart of the issue is, there's a lot of people that stand to lose right now. Mortgage companies, i-banks and financial firms have mounting losses which results in bad performance. Bad for the companies themselves, bad for the employees they have to let go of. Mortgage rates resetting high affects home owners who are living paycheck to paycheck or close to it. An extra $100 to go along with every other bill they have monthly is tough on those folks. They have less discretionary income to spend, and the stores who they use to patronize loses revenues they once depended on.

This is just a very simplistic view. There is a lot of other things going on in the background. There's 300,000,000 people living in the US, every little dollar counts.

Unemployment + lower corporate spending + higher mortgage payments + rising energy prices + inflation risk = bad.