***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

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Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
The Nasdaq has lost 126 points since Bush took office in 2001. The S&P is now up 13 points during that same period and the Dow up around 1600+ points or around 16%. Negative growth on the Nas, break even on the S&P and 16% on the Dow in 7 years...uh....sucks ass.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
Originally posted by: jjsole
Originally posted by: Naustica
OK. I was wrong on the Citi trade. :( 0/2 with the name. With option expiration and the chart, I should have guessed they're going to try to pin it at $25.

Its a tough environment to play an individual name since much of everything is getting hit, and that makes your stop that much easier to reach. But no one's ever scored a basket w/o shooting the ball. (except on occasion the defender tips it in and the offensive player gets credit for it but that's beside the point. :D)

Well, the trade isn't officially closed. It was a soft stop (aka mental) and I didn't have access to a computer most of the day. But I'll likely close it tomorrow so it could be better or worse. I'm expecting the stock to pin close to the $25 strike price unless the market melts again.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
Originally posted by: Engineer
The Nasdaq has lost 126 points since Bush took office in 2001. The S&P is now up 13 points during that same period and the Dow up around 1600+ points or around 16%. Negative growth on the Nas, break even on the S&P and 16% on the Dow in 7 years...uh....sucks ass.

Well you made the right decision and paid off your house in that time frame. :thumbsup:
I'm about to join you though. I just sent off a big check this past month and if everything goes according to plan, I should be done by around April of this year. :)
 

edro

Lifer
Apr 5, 2002
24,326
68
91
Originally posted by: Engineer
The Nasdaq has lost 126 points since Bush took office in 2001. The S&P is now up 13 points during that same period and the Dow up around 1600+ points or around 16%. Negative growth on the Nas, break even on the S&P and 16% on the Dow in 7 years...uh....sucks ass.
That's not Bush's fault. Blame Osama. :)
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Originally posted by: edro
Originally posted by: Engineer
The Nasdaq has lost 126 points since Bush took office in 2001. The S&P is now up 13 points during that same period and the Dow up around 1600+ points or around 16%. Negative growth on the Nas, break even on the S&P and 16% on the Dow in 7 years...uh....sucks ass.
That's not Bush's fault. Blame Osama. :)

Deficit spending, wars with huge spending (not to mention what the unrest in the Middle East has done for oil prices and INFLATION), borrowing huge amounts of money, weakening dollar.....You can't blame all of that on Osama. Fiscal conservative Bush is not, and nearly doubling the national debt in 8 years isn't a way to prosperity.

Shitty fiscal policy.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: Engineer
The Nasdaq has lost 126 points since Bush took office in 2001. The S&P is now up 13 points during that same period and the Dow up around 1600+ points or around 16%. Negative growth on the Nas, break even on the S&P and 16% on the Dow in 7 years...uh....sucks ass.

Well you made the right decision and paid off your house in that time frame. :thumbsup:
I'm about to join you though. I just sent off a big check this past month and if everything goes according to plan, I should be done by around April of this year. :)


Yes, it has been a good decision. An easy 7% earned (not paying 7% interest) on the house. Don't regret it for a minute! :)
 

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
Originally posted by: Carbo
Originally posted by: ViperVin2
Originally posted by: Carbo
12%, safe and steady. Private mortgage investing.

More info on this please. Sounds intriguing.
In a nutshell, instead of dumping your money in the bank and collecting 4%, or battling the stock market for 6.5%, (Dow Jones, 2007), you can be the bank and provide mortgages for the purpose of purchasing residential real estate. The payback is 12%. Risk minimal. I'm just hitting the highlights here. If you're really interested, you can PM me and I can send you some detailed info.

who the heck would pay 12% interest when they can get 5.5-6% from a bank? oh yeah, I think we have name for those people.....................................................subprime.
 

imported_Lothar

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2006
4,559
1
0
Originally posted by: rchiu
Originally posted by: Lothar
Originally posted by: rchiu
Stop chasing individual stocks a while back. Why buy stock when you can buy market index in China/India and other places. China/India almost had 100% return last year and none of risk of 10billion write off, 5 billion profit short fall risk for individual stock you have to take every quarter.

I'll take Latin America(Brazil/Mexico/Chile) over China/India any day of the week.
I've already sold most of my PRLAX holdings since early december and kept the remaining.

It's crazy how when I bought PRLAX almost 4 years ago, it was only 15% of my mom's portfolio. In that 4 years, it had ballooned from being 15% of the portfolio holdings to 37%.
I slashed it back down to 15% of the portfolio in early december and used some of the gains earned from the sale to buy VIPSX(Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities).

Emerging markets are beginning to carry a lot more risk now.
If you've had emerging markets in your portfolio for the past 3-5 years, it is highly recommended that you rebalance it.

Well I only used China/India as an example to get EFT instead of individual stock. I too have Latin American ETF in my portfolio. Latin American ETF did pretty well, but I think China/India did better over the last 5 years, at least last year. China/India is hardly an emerging market anymore. They both have a big and stable economy with strong government to back it up. China especially is gonna host Olympic, this is the big show case to the world that China has arrived, so they still have a lot of spending to do. India continue to do very well in info tech area, and that help their overall economy. With USD so weak and US economy not doing well, investors around the world is still looking for places to put their money, and I think at least in 2008, those international market will continue to be hot.

Nope.
http://finance.yahoo.com/chart...le=on;source=undefined

The Chinese Yuan is pretty much tied to the USD.
If the US economy slows down, emerging markets might tank even worse.
 

Carbo

Diamond Member
Aug 6, 2000
5,275
11
81
Originally posted by: richardycc
Originally posted by: Carbo
Originally posted by: ViperVin2
Originally posted by: Carbo
12%, safe and steady. Private mortgage investing.

More info on this please. Sounds intriguing.
In a nutshell, instead of dumping your money in the bank and collecting 4%, or battling the stock market for 6.5%, (Dow Jones, 2007), you can be the bank and provide mortgages for the purpose of purchasing residential real estate. The payback is 12%. Risk minimal. I'm just hitting the highlights here. If you're really interested, you can PM me and I can send you some detailed info.

who the heck would pay 12% interest when they can get 5.5-6% from a bank? oh yeah, I think we have name for those people.....................................................subprime.
You couldn't be more wrong. The people that use private mortgages are real estate investors, not subprime borrowers. As an investor myself, it is much faster and easier to use private mortgage money and, more importantly, less expensive in the long run. No exorbitant garbage feess the banks tack on. Immediate access and fast closing. Meaning we can offer cash for a property, (residential or commercial), close in a week, and receive a substantial discount on the price as a result.
For example, a homeowner needs to sell. In current market conditions, not an easy task. Their house is legitimately appraised at, say, $300K. We offer $200K cash with a closing in one week. The seller accepts and we contact some of our private lenders who look at the deal, accepts it, and we close as scheduled.
We now own a house with $100K equity. Our exit strategy depends upon a variety of factors. One possibility is to buy and hold as a long term rental property. In which case we refi with a bank within a year. The investor receives his principal of $200K, plus earned interest in the amount of $24K.
Do I mind paying 12%? Not at all. Because if I went the traditional route with a bank, I would not have received the discount I did from the seller. It's not the cost of money that matters. It's the availability.
 

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
Originally posted by: Carbo
Originally posted by: richardycc
Originally posted by: Carbo
Originally posted by: ViperVin2
Originally posted by: Carbo
12%, safe and steady. Private mortgage investing.

More info on this please. Sounds intriguing.
In a nutshell, instead of dumping your money in the bank and collecting 4%, or battling the stock market for 6.5%, (Dow Jones, 2007), you can be the bank and provide mortgages for the purpose of purchasing residential real estate. The payback is 12%. Risk minimal. I'm just hitting the highlights here. If you're really interested, you can PM me and I can send you some detailed info.

who the heck would pay 12% interest when they can get 5.5-6% from a bank? oh yeah, I think we have name for those people.....................................................subprime.
You couldn't be more wrong. The people that use private mortgages are real estate investors, not subprime borrowers. As an investor myself, it is much faster and easier to use private mortgage money and, more importantly, less expensive in the long run. No exorbitant garbage feess the banks tack on. Immediate access and fast closing. Meaning we can offer cash for a property, (residential or commercial), close in a week, and receive a substantial discount on the price as a result.
For example, a homeowner needs to sell. In current market conditions, not an easy task. Their house is legitimately appraised at, say, $300K. We offer $200K cash with a closing in one week. The seller accepts and we contact some of our private lenders who look at the deal, accepts it, and we close as scheduled.
We now own a house with $100K equity. Our exit strategy depends upon a variety of factors. One possibility is to buy and hold as a long term rental property. In which case we refi with a bank within a year. The investor receives his principal of $200K, plus earned interest in the amount of $24K.
Do I mind paying 12%? Not at all. Because if I went the traditional route with a bank, I would not have received the discount I did from the seller. It's not the cost of money that matters. It's the availability.

haha so are you the lender or the investor?? I've heard of these private mortgage lender, but it is certainly not minimal risk. I hope you are not that stupid to think that if someone is willing to pay 12%, its minimal risk for the lender? I've heard stories that investors are walking away from the property simply because he can't find a buyer. Who is bagholder now, can you even get mortgage insurance as a lender to limit your lost? Have you actually done a few of these deals as the lender? bottomline is, there are tons of way to make money out there, a few might even pay more than 12%, but are those the ones you want to get yourself into? Talk to cheap online, and everything looks good on paper. I can recommend you a few of these 'risk minimal' deals, but am I in any of these? hell no.
 

Carbo

Diamond Member
Aug 6, 2000
5,275
11
81
Richard, I'm not interested in a pissing contest, or trying to convince to do anything you're against. Not every investment is right for every investor. So chill.
If you took the time to read my post, you'd see I've done these deals on both sides of the deal. As the investor, and as the recipient of the funds.
Risk? Of course there's risk. What investment doesn't carry risk? But I'm very comfortable buying or lending on a property that I believe is 35% or 50% below value. The stock market carries higher risk and offers a lower return for the average Joe. I suspect that your claim this is high risk is based on ignorance. Perhaps you haven't invested in real estate. Or if you did, you did it wrong. But we are in the midst of what is turning into the best buying opportunity in 20 years. So I'm an aggressive buyer these days. But you're right. There is not a one size fits all investment.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Well, the S&P just went negative for the entire 7+ year term. Will the Dow go negative for the entire terms (both) too?

:(
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: Engineer
Well, the S&P just went negative for the entire 7+ year term. Will the Dow go negative for the entire terms (both) too?

:(

Hey now, think about it this way. It's not really a wash. If you had put any additional money in during the previous meltdown, you're actually up big. You can't just measure the S&P in terms of getting back to it's record high. Unless you actually bought at the high and never put any more money in.

I need further market meltdown so I can put a boatload of money into the market.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
That's why I love dividends, even if the price goes back to neutral, you're still up because of the payouts.

 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Originally posted by: Azurik
Originally posted by: Engineer
Well, the S&P just went negative for the entire 7+ year term. Will the Dow go negative for the entire terms (both) too?

:(

Hey now, think about it this way. It's not really a wash. If you had put any additional money in during the previous meltdown, you're actually up big. You can't just measure the S&P in terms of getting back to it's record high. Unless you actually bought at the high and never put any more money in.

I need further market meltdown so I can put a boatload of money into the market.

I'm not talking about the record high, which was more than 7 years ago. The market is actually down several years beyond the 7 years I mentioned. Going on a decade long dry spell isn't good for anybody. I understand the dips and the gains, but if you dollar cost average, the dips will cancel the swells and you'll end up basically flat, just like the market.

 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: Azurik
Originally posted by: Engineer
Well, the S&P just went negative for the entire 7+ year term. Will the Dow go negative for the entire terms (both) too?

:(

Hey now, think about it this way. It's not really a wash. If you had put any additional money in during the previous meltdown, you're actually up big. You can't just measure the S&P in terms of getting back to it's record high. Unless you actually bought at the high and never put any more money in.

I need further market meltdown so I can put a boatload of money into the market.

I'm not talking about the record high, which was more than 7 years ago. The market is actually down several years beyond the 7 years I mentioned. Going on a decade long dry spell isn't good for anybody. I understand the dips and the gains, but if you dollar cost average, the dips will cancel the swells and you'll end up basically flat, just like the market.

I'm didn't mean anything by my previous statement. Obviously, a lot of people took a hit recently.

What I meant, and this includes the record high that happened a little over 7 years ago is... even if you started putting $1,000 each month, starting at the worst possible time (tech bubble), you would still be up by a pretty high margin. I don't have the Excel sheet I did this excercise on, but the gains are significant.
 

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
just bought some ABK, already gained few hundred bucks...will sell next tuesday if no big news over the long weekend...wish me luck! not pumping, just documentation. ;)
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Well, this was an ugly week for Wallstreet. The major indexes tanked at least 4.0% or more.

Data with the first three weeks of January done:

DJIA = 12,099 / -8.8 %
Nasdaq = 2,340 / -11.8 %
S&P 500 = 1,325 / -9.8 %
Russell 2000 = 673 / -12.1 %
Azurik's Retirement = -2.5%
Azurik's Non-Retirement = 9.84%

My retirement account is the one with 40% bonds in it, helping alleviate my international and US exposure. My non-retirement account has individual stock picks and my whacky buys.


Here's Richard Jahnke's weekly wrap:

The stock market continued its slide during the past week, in more volatile trading, as a torrent of bad news in the financial sector and ongoing concerns about the housing and credit markets weighed on investor sentiment.

U.S. stocks eked out a modest gain on Monday, driven by strong preliminary results from IBM Corp. (IBM). The report helped offset weakness among retailers, after Sears Holding Corp. (SHLD) posted disappointing holiday sales and lowered its outlook for the fourth quarter.

The rebound in stocks was short lived, however. All three major averages plunged on Tuesday, following a disappointing quarterly report from financial giant Citigroup (C), which added to concerns that the economy could be headed for a recession.

For the fourth quarter, Citigroup posted a net loss of $9.83 billion, or ($1.99) per share, compared to a profit of $1.03 per share in the year ago period. The results included an $18.1 billion write-down on subprime-related losses as well as a $4.1 billion increase in credit costs for its U.S. Consumer segment. Although the charge-off was not entirely unexpected, it was far greater than the $8 to $11 billion estimate range the company provided in November.

Also adding to the market's decline were concerns about consumer spending and overall economic activity, after the Commerce Dept. reported weaker than expected retail sales for December.

The negative disposition continued through Wednesday, when the market digested disappointing results from technology bellwether Intel Corp. (INTC).

Intel for its part reported lower than expected fourth quarter revenues and earnings, and tempered its guidance for the first quarter due to U.S. economic indicators and a continued weak NAND pricing environment.

On the economic front, a government report showed core inflation trends remained steady. The December core CPI came in as expected at 0.2%, while total CPI was up 0.3%, ahead of the consensus forecast of 0.2% (although many were looking for 0.3%).

Also lending some support to the market were quarterly reports from JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), which showed that the problems in the credit markets are not being evenly felt by banks, as well as news that Oracle Corp. (ORCL) is acquiring BEA Systems (BEAS) in an all-cash deal valued at $8.5 billion.

The stock market extended its slide on Thursday, with a poor quarterly report from Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER), a worse than expected read on manufacturing activity, and rating agency warnings of potential downgrades of bond insurers fueling further worries about the economy.

Hurt by a hefty write-down and its exposure to bad mortgage bets, Merrill posted horrid results for the quarter. The investment bank posted a net loss from continuing operations of $10.3 billion, or ($12.57) per diluted share, on net revenues that plummeted to negative $8.2 billion. That was well below the consensus estimate for a loss of ($4.93) per share.

Ben Bernanke's testimony before a congressional committee also reaffirmed the market's concerns about the health of the economy and raised hopes for aggressive Fed action at its meeting later this month.

After opening higher Friday on strong results from Dow component General Electric (GE), and a better than expected outlook from IBM, the stock market turned lower during the session despite a plan presented by President Bush that calls for roughly $145 billion worth of tax relief and other incentives to boost the slowing economy and help stave off a recession.
 

Jadow

Diamond Member
Feb 12, 2003
5,962
2
0
Azurik, your shlt just doesn't stink.

January 2008 YTD:

DJIA = 12,099 / -8.8 %
Nasdaq = 2,340 / -11.8 %
S&P 500 = 1,325 / -9.8 %
Russell 2000 = 673 / -12.1 %
Azurik's Retirement = -2.5%
Azurik's Non-Retirement = 9.84%


I don't buy it. Shens, I bet you make 150k a year and drive a porsche too.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: Jadow
Azurik, your shlt just doesn't stink.

January 2008 YTD:

DJIA = 12,099 / -8.8 %
Nasdaq = 2,340 / -11.8 %
S&P 500 = 1,325 / -9.8 %
Russell 2000 = 673 / -12.1 %
Azurik's Retirement = -2.5%
Azurik's Non-Retirement = 9.84%


I don't buy it. Shens, I bet you make 150k a year and drive a porsche too.

I don't want to brag, but since you bought it up... I make more than 150k a year - although I don't drive a porsche, just an Acura, Benz and a Lexus. And below are the screen shots from my accounts as of today that ties out to the numbers I posted above:

Retirement.JPG
Non-Retirement.JPG

Oh, and you're right, my shit doesn't stink either.
 

AznMthr

Member
Jan 10, 2006
45
0
0
Originally posted by: Azurik
Originally posted by: Jadow
Azurik, your shlt just doesn't stink.

January 2008 YTD:

DJIA = 12,099 / -8.8 %
Nasdaq = 2,340 / -11.8 %
S&P 500 = 1,325 / -9.8 %
Russell 2000 = 673 / -12.1 %
Azurik's Retirement = -2.5%
Azurik's Non-Retirement = 9.84%


I don't buy it. Shens, I bet you make 150k a year and drive a porsche too.

I don't want to brag, but since you bought it up... I make more than 150k a year - although I don't drive a porsche, just an Acura, Benz and a Lexus. And below are the screen shots from my accounts as of today that ties out to the numbers I posted above:

Retirement.JPG
Non-Retirement.JPG

Oh, and you're right, my shit doesn't stink either.

PWNED!