***Official*** 2008 Stock Market Thread

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freegeeks

Diamond Member
May 7, 2001
5,460
1
81
Originally posted by: cjvon
Originally posted by: freegeeks
my strategy for 2008 is very simple, buy a buttload of Long Turbo Brent Crude Oil Futures and don't look at it for 5 years


I'm pretty sure all futures contracts expire so you (or your broker) will have to roll over into the new contract.

I'm investing into Turbo's which is a financial product launched by Abn Amro. Turbo's don't expire as long as the stop/loss level is not reached. IMHO Oil Turbo's with a stop/loss in the 40$-60$ range are good value because I don't think oil will reach this price point again so you can buy them for the mid or long term

just my 0.2 eurocents
 

richardycc

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2001
5,719
1
81
Originally posted by: Jadow
I think Citi is a safe bet right now. While it could go lower, the downside risk seems to be much less than the upside. Even though they cut their dividend, there's still a lot of dividend support on this stock.


citi is safe if you plan on sit on it for a LONG time and don't mind the up and down swing in the meantime...if dividend is what you are after, checkout AFN, I have some, should pay about 25cents/qrt for the next yr, just collected my 2nd 31 cents/share div few days ago. this is just for documentation, not pumping, do your own DD.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: richardycc
Originally posted by: Jadow
I think Citi is a safe bet right now. While it could go lower, the downside risk seems to be much less than the upside. Even though they cut their dividend, there's still a lot of dividend support on this stock.


citi is safe if you plan on sit on it for a LONG time and don't mind the up and down swing in the meantime...if dividend is what you are after, checkout AFN, I have some, should pay about 25cents/qrt for the next yr, just collected my 2nd 31 cents/share div few days ago. this is just for documentation, not pumping, do your own DD.

"Documention only, not pumping."

In this case, we mean what we're saying. But imagine the real pump and dumpers on the Yahoo! Message Boards writing this all the time.

I feel we should have that as our signature line :)

 

imported_Lothar

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2006
4,559
1
0
Originally posted by: Jadow
I think Citi is a safe bet right now. While it could go lower, the downside risk seems to be much less than the upside. Even though they cut their dividend, there's still a lot of dividend support on this stock.

Nonsense.
There are many financial stocks that offer better dividend yields than Citi and offer a lot less risk.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
If I had to pick one, it would be Goldman Sachs (GS). I've said it before, they seem the least affected from the subprime mess out of all the i-banks. If I had to pick a second, I'd choose Merrill (MER).
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
Originally posted by: Azurik
If I had to pick one, it would be Goldman Sachs (GS). I've said it before, they seem the least affected from the subprime mess out of all the i-banks. If I had to pick a second, I'd choose Merrill (MER).

I guess we're going to just have to disagree. But that's what makes a market. I'm bearish on Goldman and expect it to hit $170 and ultimately hit $160. One thing I learned over the years, you can't hide in sector decline. GS is a short and I plan on shorting it. As for Merrill, UGH.

Citi is a global brand. It'll come back. It has to stop its decline first and base for a long time but it's the most attractive financial to me.

You guys keeping eye on the Four Horsemen? They're really hitting them hard. I guess desperate funds that hopped on to make up the year now all jumped off. BIDU broke key support today at $300. Next stop is like $240. I want to short this as well but I feel we're going to get a bear rally with the interest rate cut talk and don't want to get caught in a bear trap. Any rally short term should be sold and shorted IMO. I will short Citi if and when it hits $29. Former supports are now resistance and I don't see many stocks breaking though in this climate.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: Naustica
Originally posted by: Azurik
If I had to pick one, it would be Goldman Sachs (GS). I've said it before, they seem the least affected from the subprime mess out of all the i-banks. If I had to pick a second, I'd choose Merrill (MER).

I guess we're going to just have to disagree. But that's what makes a market. I'm bearish on Goldman and expect it to hit $170 and ultimately hit $160. One thing I learned over the years, you can't hide in sector decline. GS is a short and I plan on shorting it. As for Merrill, UGH.

Citi is a global brand. It'll come back. It has to stop its decline first and base for a long time but it's the most attractive financial to me.

You guys keeping eye on the Four Horsemen? They're really hitting them hard. I guess desperate funds that hopped on to make up the year now all jumped off. BIDU broke key support today at $300. Next stop is like $240. I want to short this as well but I feel we're going to get a bear rally with the interest rate cut talk and don't want to get caught in a bear trap. Any rally short term should be sold and shorted IMO. I will short Citi if and when it hits $29. Former supports are now resistance and I don't see many stocks breaking though in this climate.

Fair enough:)

BTW, just because I like Goldman the best out of the financials doesn't mean I would be buying it at the moment. I actually agree with you it might go down to $160-$170. Possibly even further. But...

I don't think it's hiding anything. I have a belief that it didn't play the subprime field as hard as the other players and the move down is in sympathy with its peer group.
 

imported_Lothar

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2006
4,559
1
0
Originally posted by: Azurik
If I had to pick one, it would be Goldman Sachs (GS). I've said it before, they seem the least affected from the subprime mess out of all the i-banks. If I had to pick a second, I'd choose Merrill (MER).

Indeed.
There's nothing any company can do to keep up with Goldman Sachs. They need to get over it.

Citi and Merrill tried to keep up by using performance enhancing steroids but now we've seen the result.
http://www.marketwatch.com/new...81BF%2D7F7A5B123C9B%7D

Financial investment banks I like are GS, JPM.

MER is a good choice for future growth, but investing now? Meh...Still more write downs coming up.
I expect John Thain, being a former Goldman Sachs director to bring and use his expertise from Goldman to lecture Merrill on a few things.

I don't know who Citi's Prandit is, but I trust Thain more mostly because of his experience in turning companies around and also the hidden "Goldman Sachs" attribute.
You can call it blind faith if you want.;)
 

Miramonti

Lifer
Aug 26, 2000
28,653
100
106
Originally posted by: Lothar
Azurik, Naustica, and jjsole...

You guys should consider joining our ATOT '08 VSE game here. ;)
http://forums.anandtech.com/me...id=38&threadid=2142203

I'd happily join the sim if a) I didn't suck at investing b) didn't suck at sims (too easy to throw caution to the wind) and c) didn't put all my time and energy (and money) into daytrading, which fortunately can be done w/o having a clue about companies/sectors/economics. :p
 

dr150

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2003
6,570
24
81
Folks. DON'T PANIC.

Every year the market gets skittish with sky is falling mentaility......And then the market rallies later in the year and your losses or near losses turn to great gains.

The goal is not to panic.

Long term, the market is still the best place to park your money (ask Granma and Grampa). As long as you're diversified, you're solid! :D
 

edro

Lifer
Apr 5, 2002
24,326
68
91
Originally posted by: dr150
Folks. DON'T PANIC.

Every year the market gets skittish with sky is falling mentaility......And then the market rallies later in the year and your losses or near losses turn to great gains.

The goal is not to panic.

Long term, the market is still the best place to park your money (ask Granma and Grampa). As long as you're diversified, you're solid! :D
You're right. Take a look at the DJIA over the last 15 years. Almost every year, it tanks in the first quarter, then rebounds by year's end.
 

Miramonti

Lifer
Aug 26, 2000
28,653
100
106
Originally posted by: edro
Originally posted by: dr150
Folks. DON'T PANIC.

Every year the market gets skittish with sky is falling mentaility......And then the market rallies later in the year and your losses or near losses turn to great gains.

The goal is not to panic.

Long term, the market is still the best place to park your money (ask Granma and Grampa). As long as you're diversified, you're solid! :D
You're right. Take a look at the DJIA over the last 15 years. Almost every year, it tanks in the first quarter, then rebounds by year's end.

The fact that no one is panicking is probably not a good sign at this point. A nice panic usually creates a nice reversal.
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: jjsole
Originally posted by: edro
Originally posted by: dr150
Folks. DON'T PANIC.

Every year the market gets skittish with sky is falling mentaility......And then the market rallies later in the year and your losses or near losses turn to great gains.

The goal is not to panic.

Long term, the market is still the best place to park your money (ask Granma and Grampa). As long as you're diversified, you're solid! :D
You're right. Take a look at the DJIA over the last 15 years. Almost every year, it tanks in the first quarter, then rebounds by year's end.

The fact that no one is panicking is probably not a good sign at this point. A nice panic usually creates a nice reversal.

I'm kinda wishing there was a panic. I have new retirement money that is just waiting to be put in an index fund. I need hysteria!!!!
 

rchiu

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2002
3,846
0
0
Stop chasing individual stocks a while back. Why buy stock when you can buy market index in China/India and other places. China/India almost had 100% return last year and none of risk of 10billion write off, 5 billion profit short fall risk for individual stock you have to take every quarter.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
China and India are bubble markets like the US waiting to pop, I sold international in December and went precious metals, commodities, and short on banks.


1. Dont panic
2. If you panic, do so before everyone else.

 

Miramonti

Lifer
Aug 26, 2000
28,653
100
106
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
China and India are bubble markets like the US waiting to pop, I sold international in December and went precious metals, commodities, and short on banks.


1. Dont panic
2. If you panic, do so before everyone else.
lol! :D
 

Azurik

Platinum Member
Jan 23, 2002
2,206
12
81
Originally posted by: rchiu
Stop chasing individual stocks a while back. Why buy stock when you can buy market index in China/India and other places. China/India almost had 100% return last year and none of risk of 10billion write off, 5 billion profit short fall risk for individual stock you have to take every quarter.

You're a few years too late to that party and it's plenty risky now.
 

imported_Lothar

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2006
4,559
1
0
Originally posted by: rchiu
Stop chasing individual stocks a while back. Why buy stock when you can buy market index in China/India and other places. China/India almost had 100% return last year and none of risk of 10billion write off, 5 billion profit short fall risk for individual stock you have to take every quarter.

I'll take Latin America(Brazil/Mexico/Chile) over China/India any day of the week.
I've already sold most of my PRLAX holdings since early december and kept the remaining.

It's crazy how when I bought PRLAX almost 4 years ago, it was only 15% of my mom's portfolio. In that 4 years, it had ballooned from being 15% of the portfolio holdings to 37%.
I slashed it back down to 15% of the portfolio in early december and used some of the gains earned from the sale to buy VIPSX(Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities).

Emerging markets are beginning to carry a lot more risk now.
If you've had emerging markets in your portfolio for the past 3-5 years, it is highly recommended that you rebalance it.
 

imported_Lothar

Diamond Member
Aug 10, 2006
4,559
1
0
Originally posted by: jjsole
Originally posted by: edro
Originally posted by: dr150
Folks. DON'T PANIC.

Every year the market gets skittish with sky is falling mentaility......And then the market rallies later in the year and your losses or near losses turn to great gains.

The goal is not to panic.

Long term, the market is still the best place to park your money (ask Granma and Grampa). As long as you're diversified, you're solid! :D
You're right. Take a look at the DJIA over the last 15 years. Almost every year, it tanks in the first quarter, then rebounds by year's end.

The fact that no one is panicking is probably not a good sign at this point. A nice panic usually creates a nice reversal.

Yep.
When you hear Joe Schmuck or your local barber panicing about the markets, you know it's a good time to buy.
 

Carbo

Diamond Member
Aug 6, 2000
5,275
11
81
Originally posted by: ViperVin2
Originally posted by: Carbo
12%, safe and steady. Private mortgage investing.

More info on this please. Sounds intriguing.
In a nutshell, instead of dumping your money in the bank and collecting 4%, or battling the stock market for 6.5%, (Dow Jones, 2007), you can be the bank and provide mortgages for the purpose of purchasing residential real estate. The payback is 12%. Risk minimal. I'm just hitting the highlights here. If you're really interested, you can PM me and I can send you some detailed info.

 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
OK. I was wrong on the Citi trade. :( 0/2 with the name. With option expiration and the chart, I should have guessed they're going to try to pin it at $25.
 

rchiu

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2002
3,846
0
0
Originally posted by: Lothar
Originally posted by: rchiu
Stop chasing individual stocks a while back. Why buy stock when you can buy market index in China/India and other places. China/India almost had 100% return last year and none of risk of 10billion write off, 5 billion profit short fall risk for individual stock you have to take every quarter.

I'll take Latin America(Brazil/Mexico/Chile) over China/India any day of the week.
I've already sold most of my PRLAX holdings since early december and kept the remaining.

It's crazy how when I bought PRLAX almost 4 years ago, it was only 15% of my mom's portfolio. In that 4 years, it had ballooned from being 15% of the portfolio holdings to 37%.
I slashed it back down to 15% of the portfolio in early december and used some of the gains earned from the sale to buy VIPSX(Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities).

Emerging markets are beginning to carry a lot more risk now.
If you've had emerging markets in your portfolio for the past 3-5 years, it is highly recommended that you rebalance it.

Well I only used China/India as an example to get EFT instead of individual stock. I too have Latin American ETF in my portfolio. Latin American ETF did pretty well, but I think China/India did better over the last 5 years, at least last year. China/India is hardly an emerging market anymore. They both have a big and stable economy with strong government to back it up. China especially is gonna host Olympic, this is the big show case to the world that China has arrived, so they still have a lot of spending to do. India continue to do very well in info tech area, and that help their overall economy. With USD so weak and US economy not doing well, investors around the world is still looking for places to put their money, and I think at least in 2008, those international market will continue to be hot.
 

Miramonti

Lifer
Aug 26, 2000
28,653
100
106
Originally posted by: Naustica
OK. I was wrong on the Citi trade. :( 0/2 with the name. With option expiration and the chart, I should have guessed they're going to try to pin it at $25.

Its a tough environment to play an individual name since much of everything is getting hit, and that makes your stop that much easier to reach. But no one's ever scored a basket w/o shooting the ball. (except on occasion the defender tips it in and the offensive player gets credit for it but that's beside the point. :D)