***Official*** 2007 Stock Market Thread

[imported_Lothar]

I know you already got out a long time ago.

I just remembered about RRPH for the first time in months when I decided to check someone from the ATOT Virtual Stock Exchange game who had decided to go all out in the stock.
The person's portfolio is down -60.99% (to $39,011). A real shame too because the person was leading with $120k while everyone else was at $100k. If that was real money involved, this person would be out on the street.

All the more reason not to dump all your money in one particular stock.

 

[Azurik]

AZURIK'S JULY REVIEW:
Even after the past 2 weeks dismal market condition, I've managed to squeeze in gains in both the retirement and non-retirement portfolio. This is due to my heavy emphasis in aerospace and defense along with my whacky buy (BDYT.OB) making headways.

I made a rationale statement early in the year that defense companies will have a great ride. As the market swings downward, defense has held up relatively well, and even going up on big market down days. The consistent gov't spending on all things defense related, the bookings the companies (Raytheon, Boeing, Northrop, etc.) have in backlog and a healthy clip of organic growth has made the sector a good defensive play.

My whacky buy has now hit $2.52 from my buy price of $2.12, giving me a YTD gain of 19%.

As for the future direction of the market, I'm not too sure. My stance will continue to funnel in money regardless of where the market goes. People tend to emotionally play the market and add funds in when the market is doing well and sell when it starts going down... trying to time to market. This thinking usually kills the gains for the investor.

 

[Azurik]

Bump for discussion of recent events... talk people talk!

 

[AnthroAndStargate]

marked for later (to learn how to invest!)

 

[cheezy321]

Yeah Azurik thanks for all of your insight. I am an economics major finishing up my last semester of college, and I am trying to figure out the whole stock market thing. I was doing well in the ATOT virtual stock exchange, but so far this month I am down 11%!!

The one company that has been doing the best for me is costco. I believe costco is a great company with a great mantra and will continue to grow for well into the future.

Thanks for opening my eyes to defense companies. The main markets I consider myself well educated in seem to be the oil markets (somewhat) and the tech markets (obviously) Dell hasn't been doing much for me, so I bought some HP and sold off dell.

 

[Azurik]

AZURIK'S AUGUST REVIEW:
My retirement has gone down a bit, but held up well as the housing fallout continues. This has been helped by a heavy emphasis on foreign mutual funds that have held up better than their US counterparts (Dodge & Cox International, Oppenheimer International Small Cap Discovery, Oak Global).

I decided to sell BYDT.OB @ $2.51 and lock in my considerable gains. The stalling at this level can play either way and I rather not risk it. Seems like the big players are still in, but I'm not sure what the wait is for. Volume has been minimal as of late. I could be losing out on a much bigger run, or got out before it fell. Buying @ $2.12 and selling at $2.51 though, hell, I'll take it!

 

[Ricochet]

Overall, my retirement is down. I made off not too bad with individual stocks. My biggest winner was GTW. Bought it at $1.40 and sold it at $1.87. I got BQI at $4.30 and so far it's not doing too bad. My sh!ttiest one is NFLX: got in at $22 and so far it's a stinker.

Today, I've just added AMD and TTWO. The fundamentals for AMD looks like sh!t, but I just couldn't resist this underdog since it's below $13 (crossing my finger). TTWO, I have a little bit more confidence in. Bioshock is one of the biggest selling game right now and when the next Grand Theft Auto hits next spring it should bound to pick up.

On my watch list:
CFC
FMT
MAT
ETFC

 

[intogamer]

Although I'm not able to purchase stocks. I would go for Deusche Telekom (DT)

 

[Pliablemoose]

Crap, took a hint yesterday & bought

SDS

QID

TWM

Now I don't know when the hell to sell them, I suspect we've got another 1300 point correction coming for a double bottom, to test support.

WOOT :thumbsup:

 

[intogamer]

Wow nice gains

 

[Pliablemoose]

I was off yesterday & noticed that 3 of the Fed Reserve presidents and the Secretary of the Treasury were saying the economy was fine, that the Fed & European Central Bank pumped 90 billion $ into the banking system, and that Australia said they were monitoring the economy & their banking system closely and that they were poised to inject some cash if they suspected liquidity was a problem.

Usually my timing is completely hosed, but I nailed that one.

Typically when the market takes a crapper, it retests the lows to determine support, I suspect we're in for a retest of August's lows.



PSA: timing the market like I did is a fools game and it's easy to get burned quickly especially with an ultrashort ETF like those I bought...

I haven't sold yet either, so my gains are only on paper so far...

 

[kindest]

my non retirement overall is up 100 bucks.. Seagate being my best mover. My roth is down 100 bucks

 

[Pliablemoose]

Originally posted by: kindest
my non retirement overall is up 100 bucks.. Seagate being my best mover. My roth is down 100 bucks

Just wait till you get enough $ so it's $10K swings, talk about ass clenching...

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Pliablemoose

Originally posted by: kindest
my non retirement overall is up 100 bucks.. Seagate being my best mover. My roth is down 100 bucks

Just wait till you get enough $ so it's $10K swings, talk about ass clenching...

LOL. This is so true. I remember back when I was a kid, I used to jump for joy on $20 up days and sink low on $20 downers. Then the swings eventually become a couple hundred, a couple thousand, etc.

 

[Azurik]

AZURIK'S SEPTEMBER REVIEW:
This month simply reinforces that people usually end up on the wrong side of the market. With all the hoopla on the housing market crash and the fall of mortgage, home improvement and i-bank stock prices, I read a lot of people pulled out the market in the past month. Even though historically September has been a bad month of equities, this year we saw this month recouping to the record levels the DOW reached in mid-July.

There was a Fidelity brochure that came out a few days ago that stated if you only miss out on the BEST 50 days of gains from 1980 through 2007, your portfolio would be valued 75% less than if you just stuck out through the ups and downs.

Defense, as I predicted early in the year, has been outstanding. Raytheon (RTN) has a 52-week change of 32.93%. Similiar performance can be gotten from Lockheed, Boeing, Northrup, BAE, etc.

International has been an excellent addition to my portfolio.

China is still surging like crazy. No, I did not get a piece of it, but boy I would be sweating if I were in it. The thing is just shooting the roof with 2% daily gains.

My mantra still stands on the overall market. I can't predict what it will do, but I can tell you staying in, and adding a consistent amount into stocks every month in 401k, retirement, regular brokerage accounts is the best thing you can do for yourself.

 

[LS20]

Originally posted by: Azurik
AZURIK'S SEPTEMBER REVIEW:
International has been an excellent addition to my portfolio.

China is still surging like crazy. No, I did not get a piece of it, but boy I would be sweating if I were in it. The thing is just shooting the roof with 2% daily gains.

GXC did 65 --> 94 to me!

 

[alrocky]

also, anyone have the indices performance?

Thirft Savings Plan:
C Fund = S&P 500 Index
S Fund = Extended Market Index
I Fund = Developed Markets Index (international)

75% C : 25% S = US total stock market


C Fund = 3.76% Sep : 9.18% ytd
S Fund = 2.97% Sep : 9.17% ytd
I Fund = 5.36% Sep : 13.32 ytd

 

[imported_Tango]

Originally posted by: Azurik
AZURIK'S SEPTEMBER REVIEW:

China is still surging like crazy. No, I did not get a piece of it, but boy I would be sweating if I were in it. The thing is just shooting the roof with 2% daily gains.

I was 50% invested in Emerging Markets (mainly BRIC countries, but not only) for more than 5 years. I cut down a lot of these positions last July.

Although I maintain some exposure to China I would never enter the market now. It's been incredible and I thank them, but now I frankly see some of those valuations as bubble-ish.

 

[BarneyFife]

I also noticed that China is surging but I have a feeling that those stocks will be like our .com stocks of the late 90's and the bubble will explode. I would sell and move on because this thing can't last much longer.

 

[IEC]

Originally posted by: Naustica
Way too spread out for $1100. You should have one stock given the dollar amount. Two at most but that's really pushing it. If you're looking to diversify, stick the entire amount in a market index mutual fund.

I don't pay money for commissions, but I quickly decided every pick except for DPDW was fairly worthless anyways. Rebalanced TIE funds to DPDW and added another $500 in DPDW. I'm glad I did that

Updated performance/holdings comparing my buys in June/July to now:

Positions
TIE (dumped, realized loss of $20)
HSOA (holding, down $70)
CNCN (holding, down $20)
OPBL (holding, down $40)

DPDW (holding, up $1150+) :laugh:

Mutual funds:
PRLAX (up around 15%)
TREMX (up around 7%)

Overall: $1600 invested, ~$2700+ now

As of now I own $2200+ of DPDW which was originally $1000 worth @ a cost basis in the 0.60s/share

DPDW is currently at $1.35 a share. I'm up over 100% on it so far, and expect it to go much higher in the next few years. Do your research on this company and you'll see why

Edit: I should mention that I'm a college student, so my overall net worth is probably less than a lot of your monthly paychecks

 

[JEDI]

is it still worth it to buy Defense? or am i just chasing gains?

is there a vanguard defense-type EFT?

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: Azurik
AZURIK'S SEPTEMBER REVIEW:


My mantra still stands on the overall market. I can't predict what it will do, but I can tell you staying in, and adding a consistent amount into stocks every month in 401k, retirement, regular brokerage accounts is the best thing you can do for yourself.

More true words have never been typed, IMO.

As of today, my 401k is up 17.8% for the year. Not sure of others.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: JEDI
is it still worth it to buy Defense? or am i just chasing gains?

is there a vanguard defense-type EFT?

Certain companies that make MRAP's (Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles) might be poised for large gains as new goverment monies totaling $23.8 billion was just approved. Previously, $5 to 6 billion was slated. That much money flowing into some of these companies is surely to drive the price up. Hint, one is listed in the OP as last years stock.

 

[JEDI]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: JEDI
is it still worth it to buy Defense? or am i just chasing gains?

is there a vanguard defense-type EFT?

Certain companies that make MRAP's (Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicles) might be poised for large gains as new goverment monies totaling $23.8 billion was just approved. Previously, $5 to 6 billion was slated. That much money flowing into some of these companies is surely to drive the price up. Hint, one is listed in the OP as last years stock.

i'd rather buy a fund than gamble on 1 stock.

but out of curtiousity, which one?
Raytheon (RTN) , Lockheed, Boeing, Northrup, BAE, or BDYT / FRPT ?

 

[IEC]

Summary of investments from June 23, 2007 - October 7, 2007:

$1000 in Zecco account
$500 in commission account
$100 in mutual fund account

From October 7, 2007 posting:
DPDW is currently at $1.35 a share. I'm up over 100% on it so far, and expect it to go much higher in the next few years. Do your research on this company and you'll see why

Current value of investments as of noon EST:

$3365 in Zecco account (99%+ DPDW)
$145 in commission account (sold a position, $100 to bank, rest to Zecco)
$120 in mutual fund account

Total: $3630
Amount invested: $1500

Return on investment YTD: 242%

Not bad for 4 months... DPDW is currently trading at $2.20+ a share.