***Official*** 2007 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
F YEAH!!! I made about 200K in the last month or so on my puts on CFC and KBH.

Take a lesson kids, thats how you profit off the housing bubble collapse.

What must go up, must come down. Congrats again on your profits but don't get too greedy!
That would make for a nice down payment on a house or condo late this year or early next year.

I live in CA so Im keeping my powder dry until 2009, at which point Ill buy my dream house regardless of the direction of the market. I figure by then, prices will have fallen off enough and it'll be time to settle in somewhere permanent.

The latest "good" prediction for a bottom to the housing bubble burst is mid-2008. Most are predicting the end of 2007 as the bottom and the the bottom won't b seen till a time later than this summer.

cliffs:
Housing bottom will be between July 207 and July 2008. Most likely be September 2007. Months are just estimate I made up.

Busts always take longer to finish than people expect, especailly with a slow moving illiquid assest like housing. If you look at long term housing boom bust cycles, historically the bust takes as long to finish as the boom, which would put the bottom at around 2010 someitme.

WIth subprime bitning the dust and stricter lending standards going into place, there arent enough people with $$ to absorb the inventory thats around.

Great points. You're right on the mark.

 

[iversonyin]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
F YEAH!!! I made about 200K in the last month or so on my puts on CFC and KBH.

Take a lesson kids, thats how you profit off the housing bubble collapse.

How much put did you buy? What a nice trade.

 

[bennylong]

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004

Originally posted by: Slew Foot

Originally posted by: Naustica

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
F YEAH!!! I made about 200K in the last month or so on my puts on CFC and KBH.

Take a lesson kids, thats how you profit off the housing bubble collapse.

What must go up, must come down. Congrats again on your profits but don't get too greedy!
That would make for a nice down payment on a house or condo late this year or early next year.

I live in CA so Im keeping my powder dry until 2009, at which point Ill buy my dream house regardless of the direction of the market. I figure by then, prices will have fallen off enough and it'll be time to settle in somewhere permanent.

The latest "good" prediction for a bottom to the housing bubble burst is mid-2008. Most are predicting the end of 2007 as the bottom and the the bottom won't b seen till a time later than this summer.

cliffs:
Housing bottom will be between July 207 and July 2008. Most likely be September 2007. Months are just estimate I made up.

Busts always take longer to finish than people expect, especailly with a slow moving illiquid assest like housing. If you look at long term housing boom bust cycles, historically the bust takes as long to finish as the boom, which would put the bottom at around 2010 someitme.

WIth subprime bitning the dust and stricter lending standards going into place, there arent enough people with $$ to absorb the inventory thats around.

Not to mention that only 10% of the Metro CA population can actually to buy a house at today's price. You need a household income close to $150k just to buy a starter home.
How many CA household make over $150k?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070313/japan_markets.html?.v=16

Oh great ... get your ointment out for Wednesday. More pain on the way.

 

[Slew Foot]

Originally posted by: bennylong

Not to mention that only 10% of the Metro CA population can actually to buy a house at today's price. You need a household income close to $150k just to buy a starter home.
How many CA household make over $150k?

I do But Im too smart to buy in this environment. The Japanese market dropping seems to be in response to the US so Im not sure if the Dow will drop again tomorrow, it may.

I bought a total of 200 contracts with varying strike points between the two companies, ill probaly start to sell sometime in the summer, I think things are going to get alot worse then, but may taper off in the fall and winter.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Yayyy .. another day of the stock market ... well doing better but STILL SUCKS

 

[LS20]

made some moves with my free zecco account today. hoping for a good year

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Azurik's Portfolio (60% US/40% Foreign)
Current Whacky Buy: Very unorthodox of me to buy OTC's, but I bought 10k worth of BDYT @ $2.12 on 1/11. It's $2.23 right now.

Amidst the see-saw session that is Mr. Market, BDYT is still chugging along. It's at $2.27 now.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik
Azurik's Portfolio (60% US/40% Foreign)
Current Whacky Buy: Very unorthodox of me to buy OTC's, but I bought 10k worth of BDYT @ $2.12 on 1/11. It's $2.23 right now.

Amidst the see-saw session that is Mr. Market, BDYT is still chugging along. It's at $2.27 now.

I'm not concerned with day to day price fluctuations, but BDVT is now $2.30. Up 8.49% in two months

 

[LS20]

Hecla Mining ftwwww

 

[iversonyin]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik
Azurik's Portfolio (60% US/40% Foreign)
Current Whacky Buy: Very unorthodox of me to buy OTC's, but I bought 10k worth of BDYT @ $2.12 on 1/11. It's $2.23 right now.

Amidst the see-saw session that is Mr. Market, BDYT is still chugging along. It's at $2.27 now.

I'm not concerned with day to day price fluctuations, but BDVT is now $2.30. Up 8.49% in two months

Can you tell us how you come up with the whacky play? You don't have to reply if its insider info.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik
Azurik's Portfolio (60% US/40% Foreign)
Current Whacky Buy: Very unorthodox of me to buy OTC's, but I bought 10k worth of BDYT @ $2.12 on 1/11. It's $2.23 right now.

Amidst the see-saw session that is Mr. Market, BDYT is still chugging along. It's at $2.27 now.

I'm not concerned with day to day price fluctuations, but BDVT is now $2.30. Up 8.49% in two months

Can you tell us how you come up with the whacky play? You don't have to reply if its insider info.

Hahaha My whacky plays? Maybe I'll delve into it later. I'm actually waiting for this to go to $3.00 or thereabouts - another two months time? I'll probably sell around then. I'll take a 50% gain in 4-5 months.

My entire portfolio isn't going that bad. I have mid/large cap international exposure a long with a heavy emphasis on gov't defense companies (RTN, LM, BA, etc). Those will have a couple (or three) good years before the next President comes in and sets the defense budget.

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik
Azurik's Portfolio (60% US/40% Foreign)
Current Whacky Buy: Very unorthodox of me to buy OTC's, but I bought 10k worth of BDYT @ $2.12 on 1/11. It's $2.23 right now.

Amidst the see-saw session that is Mr. Market, BDYT is still chugging along. It's at $2.27 now.

I'm not concerned with day to day price fluctuations, but BDVT is now $2.30. Up 8.49% in two months

Can you tell us how you come up with the whacky play? You don't have to reply if its insider info.

Hahaha My whacky plays? Maybe I'll delve into it later. I'm actually waiting for this to go to $3.00 or thereabouts - another two months time? I'll probably sell around then. I'll take a 50% gain in 4-5 months.

My entire portfolio isn't going that bad. I have mid/large cap international exposure a long with a heavy emphasis on gov't defense companies (RTN, LM, BA, etc). Those will have a couple (or three) good years before the next President comes in and sets the defense budget.

Somethiing is definitely going on. $2.32 now on heavy volume.

 

[AznMthr]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik
Azurik's Portfolio (60% US/40% Foreign)
Current Whacky Buy: Very unorthodox of me to buy OTC's, but I bought 10k worth of BDYT @ $2.12 on 1/11. It's $2.23 right now.

Amidst the see-saw session that is Mr. Market, BDYT is still chugging along. It's at $2.27 now.

I'm not concerned with day to day price fluctuations, but BDVT is now $2.30. Up 8.49% in two months

Can you tell us how you come up with the whacky play? You don't have to reply if its insider info.

Hahaha My whacky plays? Maybe I'll delve into it later. I'm actually waiting for this to go to $3.00 or thereabouts - another two months time? I'll probably sell around then. I'll take a 50% gain in 4-5 months.

My entire portfolio isn't going that bad. I have mid/large cap international exposure a long with a heavy emphasis on gov't defense companies (RTN, LM, BA, etc). Those will have a couple (or three) good years before the next President comes in and sets the defense budget.

Somethiing is definitely going on. $2.32 now on heavy volume.

woah it closed at 2.34 you're up over 10 percent since posting this!

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: AznMthr

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik
Azurik's Portfolio (60% US/40% Foreign)
Current Whacky Buy: Very unorthodox of me to buy OTC's, but I bought 10k worth of BDYT @ $2.12 on 1/11. It's $2.23 right now.

Amidst the see-saw session that is Mr. Market, BDYT is still chugging along. It's at $2.27 now.

I'm not concerned with day to day price fluctuations, but BDVT is now $2.30. Up 8.49% in two months

Can you tell us how you come up with the whacky play? You don't have to reply if its insider info.

Hahaha My whacky plays? Maybe I'll delve into it later. I'm actually waiting for this to go to $3.00 or thereabouts - another two months time? I'll probably sell around then. I'll take a 50% gain in 4-5 months.

My entire portfolio isn't going that bad. I have mid/large cap international exposure a long with a heavy emphasis on gov't defense companies (RTN, LM, BA, etc). Those will have a couple (or three) good years before the next President comes in and sets the defense budget.

Somethiing is definitely going on. $2.32 now on heavy volume.

woah it closed at 2.34 you're up over 10 percent since posting this!

$2.36 now

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: AznMthr

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: Azurik
Azurik's Portfolio (60% US/40% Foreign)
Current Whacky Buy: Very unorthodox of me to buy OTC's, but I bought 10k worth of BDYT @ $2.12 on 1/11. It's $2.23 right now.

Amidst the see-saw session that is Mr. Market, BDYT is still chugging along. It's at $2.27 now.

I'm not concerned with day to day price fluctuations, but BDVT is now $2.30. Up 8.49% in two months

Can you tell us how you come up with the whacky play? You don't have to reply if its insider info.

Hahaha My whacky plays? Maybe I'll delve into it later. I'm actually waiting for this to go to $3.00 or thereabouts - another two months time? I'll probably sell around then. I'll take a 50% gain in 4-5 months.

My entire portfolio isn't going that bad. I have mid/large cap international exposure a long with a heavy emphasis on gov't defense companies (RTN, LM, BA, etc). Those will have a couple (or three) good years before the next President comes in and sets the defense budget.

Somethiing is definitely going on. $2.32 now on heavy volume.

woah it closed at 2.34 you're up over 10 percent since posting this!

$2.36 now

Who got in this with me? It's $2.41!

Ok, I'll stop posting updates on this stock besides the monthly updates on my OP

 

[LegendKiller]

If you want a really good read at how bad this can get....

http://www.billcara.com/CS%20Mar%2012%202007%20Mortgage%20and%20Housing.pdf

 

[Azurik]

The train has now left the station. Choo-choo

 

[LS20]

Originally posted by: Azurik

Who got in this with me? It's $2.41!

Ok, I'll stop posting updates on this stock besides the monthly updates on my OP

followed you at 2.20.. pretty nice

HL is hot hot hot!

 

[Azurik]

Originally posted by: LS20

Originally posted by: Azurik

Who got in this with me? It's $2.41!

Ok, I'll stop posting updates on this stock besides the monthly updates on my OP

followed you at 2.20.. pretty nice

HL is hot hot hot!

Nice entry point:thumbsup:

Looks like it is forming a plateau now before the next leg up. I'll let you know when the fundy's get off and when you should get off the bandwagon.

In the meantime, I have another whacky buy and hold. RRPH. I'm entering a position tomorrow morning.

Got in this morning at $2.66.

 

[iversonyin]

Azurik, can you tell us how you allocate your portfolio and why? And do you pick mutual funds or you index it?

Also, would like to know more about those whacky OTC buys.

 

[imported_Tango]

Originally posted by: PAB

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JDub02

Originally posted by: Azurik
It's going to be another great year for government defense companies that's for sure...

I used to work for Lockheed Martin. Their matching 401k contributions went into company stock. Their stock has been kicking butt and sending that 401k plan way high. I hope to see that keep climbing for a while.

I work for Raytheon. Without going into areas where it might be considered insider info, I think gov't defense companies still have a ways to go in the run-up. Maybe a stall or go downward when the next president gets elected - depends on what his defense spending budget is. Bish will leave a high defense spending plan in place for the year he leaves, so I think they are relatively safe until 2009.

Defense companies you guys might be interested after hearing the comment from trustworthy the Azurik (who I consider ATOT Smartmoney):
LMT
NOC
GD
BA
RTN

Boeing, of course, has a huge commercial aircraft division. Which is growing quite nicely since Airbus failed to deliver the goodies. - That is where you might wonder why BA's P/E is so out of blown compare to other defense companies.

So far, we have a lot of ETFs and mutual fund investors. Where are the stock pickers of ATOT?!

Although I own some stocks, it is INCREDIBLY hard to buy blue chips nowadays. Even with a $100k portfolio, to be properly diversified you'll be holding odd lots of shares left and right. Unless you've got a million bucks to play with, stocks require more nuts and bolts investing,

Untrue. With three stocks you can have a Beta=1 portfolio when regressed on the S&P 500.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Originally posted by: Tango

Originally posted by: PAB

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: Azurik

Originally posted by: JDub02

Originally posted by: Azurik
It's going to be another great year for government defense companies that's for sure...

I used to work for Lockheed Martin. Their matching 401k contributions went into company stock. Their stock has been kicking butt and sending that 401k plan way high. I hope to see that keep climbing for a while.

I work for Raytheon. Without going into areas where it might be considered insider info, I think gov't defense companies still have a ways to go in the run-up. Maybe a stall or go downward when the next president gets elected - depends on what his defense spending budget is. Bish will leave a high defense spending plan in place for the year he leaves, so I think they are relatively safe until 2009.

Defense companies you guys might be interested after hearing the comment from trustworthy the Azurik (who I consider ATOT Smartmoney):
LMT
NOC
GD
BA
RTN

Boeing, of course, has a huge commercial aircraft division. Which is growing quite nicely since Airbus failed to deliver the goodies. - That is where you might wonder why BA's P/E is so out of blown compare to other defense companies.

So far, we have a lot of ETFs and mutual fund investors. Where are the stock pickers of ATOT?!

Although I own some stocks, it is INCREDIBLY hard to buy blue chips nowadays. Even with a $100k portfolio, to be properly diversified you'll be holding odd lots of shares left and right. Unless you've got a million bucks to play with, stocks require more nuts and bolts investing,

Untrue. With three stocks you can have a Beta=1 portfolio when regressed on the S&P 500.

I read a book taht I still use the basics of today that said 4-5 stocks are all that one needs as long as the stocks are high quality (GD from the defense bunch) and diversified.

 

[LS20]

Originally posted by: LS20
Hecla Mining ftwwww

7.9 to 9.7 in a month, holla back!!!

 

[Azurik]

There goes the 13,000 DOW. My portfolios are doing nicely. Reminds me of the internet boom though... people enjoying the moment before the burst. At least this time stock valuations are not overly inflated as back then.

I'm still in BYDT.ob - nothing in my analysis has changed in that.

Still in RRPH.ob - I'm up 13% since buying (and posting it on ATOT for timestamp proof) it less than a month ago.

As for these whacky buys, I base them on unusual volume base build up. That is, when a stock that is usually stagnant gets a huge volume increase for a few days and then settles for a bit. That base volume looks like it never got sold, it just sits there. It begs the question as to why that build up is taking place without selling involved. Investigate, stay alert and hop on the train of success.

They are not overly long-term buy and holds. Once the data says the stock will taper back to the original pre-base build up price, I will sell.

I guess you can call it a very unorthodox way of making money, but it works, and compliments well into my retirement portfolio.

There are going to be times when you are wrong on the call, but the losses are minimal because you can spot trends.

And who can complain about a sizable gain in a matter of months?