Odds of conviction?

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What are the odds the Senate will find Trump guilty?

  • NONE

    Votes: 51 58.0%
  • <10%

    Votes: 29 33.0%
  • <50%

    Votes: 4 4.5%
  • >50%

    Votes: 3 3.4%
  • >90%

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Slam dunk.

    Votes: 1 1.1%

  • Total voters
    88
  • Poll closed .

Dave_5k

Platinum Member
May 23, 2017
2,007
3,820
136
The fix is in? The he defense having pre trial relations with the jury?

Yea that is how that is supposed to work.
What a mockery.
Yep, when nearly half the jury were actually unindicted co-conspirators, it is not surprising to see them actively coordinating plans with the defense attorneys.
 

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
31,305
47,481
136
With a few exceptions, repugs have already proven that they really don't care about the Constitution, the country, or their oaths of office. The assholes who impeached over consensual sex between two adults just don't want to exercise the same kind of dedication in protecting our democracy from abuse at the hands of a future fascist demagogue. It's party and personal career before country, always. That Senators who are charged with being a jury are assisting in Trump's "defense" is an epic joke, one that points to the likely outcome.

I wouldn't expect them to start acting like Americans now, even in the face of overwhelming evidence. Putting party before country is what these traitors do, and expecting them to disavow the cult is a fool's errand.

Trump won't be in office again, I'm more worried about dipshits like Cotton and others trying to be president when impeachment doesn't matter anymore. And guess what that means people? Dead presidents.
 
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Dulanic

Diamond Member
Oct 27, 2000
9,968
592
136
0, they are cowards. They could reclaim their party and recover from any pushback from the deplorables within a couple years. Instead they continue to burn the party for trump because they are chicken shits who can't say anything against him.
 
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trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
15,780
8,351
136
Of the four years that the Repubs had the Senate and the presidency to actually "make America great" they spent it dividing the nation, putting up walls against the rising tide of demographic change, blessing the very wealthy with more wealth, encouraging racists, militant groups and religious nutjobs to come out of hiding in defense of a fascist POTUS along with his enablers in Congress and making things as difficult as possible toward having free and fair elections.

They did all of that for the singular purpose of hanging on to the power and influence over the nation they proved they don't deserve.

With that in mind, it's a no brainer as far as their defending Trump to the very end and beyond.

One can hope for reality to kick in and have Trump get what he deserves for what he and his enablers in Congress did to the nation but simply put, to have the Repubs in the Senate convict Trump would in essence be convicting themselves as co-conspirators.

Not going to happen.
 
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woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,242
14,243
136
I put the odds at 1 in 50. Negligible but barely above zero. And that only because the House Managers presentation was so compelling. In reality, best case scenario is that instead of 5-6 GOP votes to convict, maybe we get 7 or 8. But even that is unlikely.
 
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Reactions: Pohemi
Nov 29, 2006
15,880
4,435
136
Best bet is GOP senators that want him impeached but don't want to vote that out of fear, just don't show up lessening the amount of votes the GOP would need. That way they can save what little face they have to begin with.
 
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BonzaiDuck

Lifer
Jun 30, 2004
16,615
2,023
126
For four years, I'd turn on the news or awake to it at 6AM. Almost daily, that Asshole would get his media exposure, and by Noon, I wanted to kill someone.

I decided to join up with "ANTIFA". For four years, I scoured the online sources to figure out how. There ain't no ANTIFA.

The Trumpers with their delusional logic just think that we all hate Trump because he's their "Republican". Politics doesn't have a damn thing to do with it. There's enough evidence to strongly suspect, prove, and build a case that he's a life-long criminal in about 20 dimensions. He doesn't "believe" anything, other than that he's somehow superior to everyone in his multi-dimensional delusions of grandeur. He's a sociopath, for which narcissistic personality disorder simply goes hand in hand.

And now Nikki Haley comes forth with her long overdue pronouncement that "we should not follow him ever again"?

So again, describing my four years in anger, I've been perpetually concocting bumper-stickers and bumper posters with an inflammatory aspect, and then I would dismiss putting them on the back of my 26-year-old SUV because I love my vehicle too much. The vehicle is still at risk even though I keep a beautiful Louisville Slugger in the back seat -- hoping for a chance to commit self-defense. And also, over that four years, I've contemplated writing hate letters to the GOP congressional faithful. At first, I thought I'd just sign them "John Brown" or "Anonymous". But hate letters are beneath my dignity.

Now that I can see how this is going forward, I can think there might be some chance of GOP senators re-joining the human race and exercising a simple human conscience to vote for Trump's conviction. But hearing those people, knowing them for what they are, they are all completely derelict in performing as the Founders intended. Do they represent ALL the people in their districts and states? No, they don't. As far as they're concerned, the 30 to 50% of those constituents -- citizens in their districts and states -- don't exist. There is a much greater chance that they will ignore both the evidence and the Law.

Finally, I decided how to write a letter to them that I could sign boldly with a big "John Hancock", when they vote to acquit Trump.

It begins with a short summary of an American literary and film classic -- a western -- about a lynching: "The Oxbow Incident", by Walter van Tilburg Clark.
An old Confederate general, the richest and most influential man in a western town, still wakes up daily to don his dusty gray uniform. He leads a mob to eventually capture and hang three men -- at least one of them innocent. After the hanging, the general somehow feels compelled to dispatch himself with a Colt 45, while other men gather in a saloon. One of them, portrayed by Henry Fonda, has promised the innocent man to convey a letter to his wife and children.

And the letter -- from the movie script -- reads as follows:

"My dear wife:
Mr. Davies will tell you what's happening here. He's a good man and
has done everything he can for me. There are some other good men too,
only they don't realize what they're doing.

They're the ones I feel sorry for, because it'll be over for me...
...but they'll have to go on remembering for the rest of their lives.

A man just can't take the law into his own hands and hang people...
...without hurting everybody in the world......because then he's not just
breaking one law, but all laws.

Law is a lot more than words you put in a book......or judges or lawyers or sheriffs
you hire to carry it out. It's everything people ever have found out about justice...
...and what's right and wrong.

It's the very conscience of humanity. There can't be any such thing as civilization...
...unless people have a conscience......because if people touch God anywhere...
...where is it except through their conscience? And what is anybody's conscience...
...except a little piece of the conscience of all men that ever lived?

I guess that's all I've got to say, except......kiss the babies for me,
and God bless you.

Your husband, Donald. "

And then, I'll explain to these senators -- not "US senators" because they haven't fulfilled their duty to serve the whole country -- how they can redeem themselves -- as Americans, and as human beings. First, I'll tell them to settle their affairs and provide for a great life-insurance policy. I'll ask them to write letters -- one to their constituents and one to their family -- explaining their spinelessness and remorse for it.

I'll tell them to purchase or borrow a Glock 9mm or a 38 revolver, with a box of cartridges, explaining that they only need one cartridge.

You can imagine the rest of it.

As for such letters, anybody here can do the same. If it moves you, use the quoted script lines.

If, after the Senate fails to convict Trump, and the news ; later reports several GOP senatorial suicides, we can feel satisfied that our letters were worth writing.
 
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Nov 29, 2006
15,880
4,435
136
Kinda like this

SuA6ZZH.png
How the world should feel about those odds.
 

Dulanic

Diamond Member
Oct 27, 2000
9,968
592
136
I put the odds at 1 in 50. Negligible but barely above zero. And that only because the House Managers presentation was so compelling. In reality, best case scenario is that instead of 5-6 GOP votes to convict, maybe we get 7 or 8. But even that is unlikely.

The missing part is that a lot of republicans didn't even watch it... so that mostly nullifies their argument.
 
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ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,499
16,986
136
Zero chance. If you belong in a cult, would you turn against your cult leader? No, of course not because your cult leader can do no wrong.

When trump publicly stated at a rally to not trust your eyes and ears and only believe him and not a single Republican complained or raised any concerns about it, the party was lost and the trump cult cemented.
 
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Feb 16, 2005
14,079
5,450
136
He's fucking guilty, absolutely no question about it. However when you have the 'jurors' meeting with the defense attorneys during the 'trial' that tends to put a stink on the whole process.
I believe that conduct in a real trial would result in a mistrial, fines, and maybe some jailtime.
The orange fucker is going to be acquitted, and his followers will be validated in their actions.
I just wonder how this would have all played out if those breaching the capitol actually got their hands on pence or Pelosi. They weren't going to take them out to brunch, that's for damn sure. Not sure if they'd kill them outright but it had that vibe to it.
Fuck this whole bullshit process. Fuck mcconnell, fuck graham, fuck cruz, fuck hawley, fuck each and every gop member who is complicit in this attempted coup whether directly or tacitly.
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,935
55,287
136
I think it's the opposite. They won't admit what's going on because they're on the tail end of a decades long misinformation campaign, and they need someone like trump to keep the fire burning. Don't forget, trump got 10+ million MORE votes in 2020
I’m not sure I understand this logic. Trump got Republicans more votes, but got their opponents even more votes than that, causing them to lose control of all elected parts of government.

If Trump stays relevant and keeps the fire burning the most likely result is more losses. Why would they want this?
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
39,749
20,323
146
I’m not sure I understand this logic. Trump got Republicans more votes, but got their opponents even more votes than that, causing them to lose control of all elected parts of government.

If Trump stays relevant and keeps the fire burning the most likely result is more losses. Why would they want this?

The logic is that he got them more votes, and has a pretty large and committed following. Which seems to be why most R's are so reluctant to "cross" him, because they're worried about the polls. R leaders created an environment ripe for a cult leader, and they got him.

We both know that R's rarely receive more votes than their opponents, it's the district make up that keeps them in relevant status.
 
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Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
5,160
6,778
136
I would say worse than a million to one against, but that wasn't in the options, so I picked zero, because saying less than 10% doesn't express how extremely unlikely this is.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,935
55,287
136
The logic is that he got them more votes, and has a pretty large and committed following. Which seems to be why most R's are so reluctant to "cross" him, because they're worried about the polls. R leaders created an environment ripe for a cult leader, and they got him.

We both know that R's rarely receive more votes than their opponents, it's the district make up that keeps them in relevant status.
Right, but with him on the ballot they lost literally everything. Why would they want to keep losing?
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
33,274
12,838
136
Right, but with him on the ballot they lost literally everything. Why would they want to keep losing?
the only thing i can think of is that they expect a depressed democrat turnout in 22 and 24, because trump is no longer on the ballot (well, 22 at least). meanwhile, they can peddle in bullshit about stolen elections to keep the base fired up.
 

Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
5,160
6,778
136
I’m not sure I understand this logic. Trump got Republicans more votes, but got their opponents even more votes than that, causing them to lose control of all elected parts of government.

If Trump stays relevant and keeps the fire burning the most likely result is more losses. Why would they want this?

The Republican Party has been co-opted by Trump. If they vote to impeach, they lose the votes of the Trump base, which would guarantee more losses.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,935
55,287
136
the only thing i can think of is that they expect a depressed democrat turnout in 22 and 24, because trump is no longer on the ballot (well, 22 at least). meanwhile, they can peddle in bullshit about stolen elections to keep the base fired up.
I think their planning goes no further than fearing a primary loss more than a general election loss.

It’s certainly possible, maybe even probable that Republicans will gain seats in 2022, but it seems very clear that Trump is a drag on their ticket.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,935
55,287
136
The Republican Party has been co-opted by Trump. If they vote to impeach, they lose the votes of the Trump base, which would guarantee more losses.
So the Republican Party is simply doomed? They lost everything with Trump and now they will lose without him?
 
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Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
15,965
11,109
136
I think their planning goes no further than fearing a primary loss more than a general election loss.

It’s certainly possible, maybe even probable that Republicans will gain seats in 2022, but it seems very clear that Trump is a drag on their ticket.

If they win the house in 22.. it guarantees a Trump re-election in 24.

They'll just say the election was fraudulent and use the house to give him the presidency which they were not able to this time because Dems had the house.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
87,935
55,287
136
If they win the house in 22.. it guarantees a Trump re-election in 24.

They'll just say the election was fraudulent and use the house to give him the presidency which they were not able to this time because Dems had the house.
Except of course for the slight problem that the house elected in 2022 doesn’t vote on that. That vote would be taken by the house elected in 2024.

If the argument is the GOP plans to end democracy then okay, but that’s a distinctly different one than saying keeping Trump around helps them win elections. It doesn’t, as evidenced by them losing literally every elected body of government while he was on the ballot.