Odds of conviction?

[ch33zw1z]

Right, but with him on the ballot they lost literally everything. Why would they want to keep losing?

What evidence do we have that they listen to reason? Seems more like they're just gonna get more violent, projecting their own problems onto others, and try to end democracy.

Fact is that Trump got more votes in 2020 than 2016, that's plenty of evidence for me that this isn't over. By "this", I mean the crazy train we're all being force to watch and have to interact with.

 

[fskimospy]

What evidence do we have that they listen to reason? Seems more like they're just gonna get more violent, projecting their own problems onto others, and try to end democracy.

I think they are in a very difficult situation where it is often individually rational for them to stick by Trump to avoid a primary challenge but collectively bad for the party because it makes them lose overall.

Fact is that Trump got more votes in 2020 than 2016, that's plenty of evidence for me that this isn't over. By "this", I mean the crazy train we're all being force to watch and have to interact with.

Right, but this is a well known phenomenon and it’s why most national campaigns aren’t built on firing up the base like Trump’s was - it is often counterproductive. Acts and messaging that gets your base excited often have the same effect on the opposing base, nullifying your efforts, or in Trump’s case making you lose and taking the party down with you.

 

[ch33zw1z]

I think they are in a very difficult situation where it is often individually rational for them to stick by Trump to avoid a primary challenge but collectively bad for the party because it makes them lose overall.


Right, but this is a well known phenomenon and it’s why most national campaigns aren’t built on firing up the base like Trump’s was - it is often counterproductive. Acts and messaging that gets your base excited often have the same effect on the opposing base, nullifying your efforts, or in Trump’s case making you lose and taking the party down with you.

If we're counting of R's to be reasonable, I think we'll be disappointed.

If Trump comes out saying, I am running for president for 2024, then your gona see Republicans loose thier minds and start screaming "Noooo! We do not want you! Guitly!!!!!!!!!!!!" They are all hoping Trump does not run.

I think it's the opposite. They won't admit what's going on because they're on the tail end of a decades long misinformation campaign, and they need someone like trump to keep the fire burning. Don't forget, trump got 10+ million MORE votes in 2020

I just disagree with Amol. If Trump came out right now and said he specifically in 2024 is going to run for POTUS in 2024, we would NOT see the R rep's disavow Trump.

I understand what you're saying here, I'm just not counting on the "fuck your feels" party to vote with anything other than feels, and many Americans to join in. If we get more people like Abrams nationwide to get D's to voting stations, things will look more grim for the R's.

 

[Heartbreaker]

So the Republican Party is simply doomed? They lost everything with Trump and now they will lose without him?

You have a lot of wishful thinking going on, if you see 2020 as the end of Trumpism.

It's not like the Republicans were routed. Democrats lost significant seats in the House, and picked up a few in the Senate. Democrats only hold the slimmest of margins in both.

Close margin swings states broke for Biden and shifted the presidency.

BUT with Trump absolutely failing in his one leadership test (Covid-19), and American deaths mounting, It should have been a landslide against him, and his failed presidency. But it wasn't.

I am sure that without his Covid-19 FUBAR response, he would have won again.

With CV19 in the rear view mirror at midterms and 2024, the Trumpist could easily win again.

If their choice is between betting on Trumpism again, when it came so close to winning this time, even with CV19, or fracturing the party by trying to eject Trump, it's easy to see how those who want the best chance to win in midterms and 2024, will be playing nice with the Trumpists.

 

[fskimospy]

You have a lot of wishful thinking going on, if you see 2020 as the end of Trumpism.

It's not like the Republicans were routed. Democrats lost significant seats in the House, and picked up a few in the Senate. Democrats only hold the slimmest of margins in both.

Close margin swings states broke for Biden and shifted the presidency.

BUT with Trump absolutely failing in his one leadership test (Covid-19), and American deaths mounting, It should have been a landslide against him, and his failed presidency. But it wasn't.

I am sure that without his Covid-19 FUBAR response, he would have won again.

What is your basis for this? Most world leaders saw a significant improvement in their approval ratings even if their country handled things poorly. Seems like if anything he would have been helped by it.

With CV19 in the rear view mirror at midterms and 2024, the Trumpist could easily win again.

If their choice is between betting on Trumpism again, when it came so close to winning this time, even with CV19, or fracturing the party by trying to eject Trump, it's easy to see how those who want the best chance to win in midterms and 2024, will be playing nice with the Trumpists.

Except for the rather large problem that in 2018 with no COVID and a well performing economy Republicans were completely routed.

Look, if you want to believe a guy who just lost as an incumbent who in a matter of four years lost all elected parts of government despite a good economy and him corruptly leveraging his power to help himself is some kind of master political force...okay.

I will propose an alternative theory. The most enduringly unpopular president in history was bad at politics and voters dislike him, which is why he lost. Making someone with a 34% approval rating the face of your party is a dumb idea.

 

[Heartbreaker]

What is your basis for this? Most world leaders saw a significant improvement in their approval ratings even if their country handled things poorly. Seems like if anything he would have been helped by it.

Many of them could be compared to the USA, to show what a real poor response looks like.

Except for the rather large problem that in 2018 with no COVID and a well performing economy Republicans were completely routed.

That's just the completely normal pattern, which history says will bite the democrats in 2022:

The President's Party Loses an Average 30 Seats in Midterm Elections

Read a list of midterm election results and find out why the president's party almost always loses seats in Congress. There are few exceptions.

www.thoughtco.com

I will propose an alternative theory. The most enduringly unpopular president in history was bad at politics and voters dislike him, which is why he lost. Making someone with a 34% approval rating the face of your party is a dumb idea.

Not saying he is running again. Just that they won't eject Trump (or convict as it's the topic of this thread) or Trumpists. They will remain a force.

They have two choices, keep the the Trumpists happy and get their support in midterms, or try to eject them and fracture the party by working against them, and losing significant support. It should be obvious which strategy will get the most seats, and which the self interested Republicans will pursue.

 

[fskimospy]

Many of them could be compared to a the USA, to show what a real poor response looks like.

I think the more plausible reason is that national catastrophes often have the effect of strengthening support for leadership, at least in the near term. Look at Bush after 9/11, for example.

So no, I don’t think it’s at all clear that COVID hurt Trump - I think if I had to bet I would say it helped him.

That's just the completely normal pattern, which history says will bite the democrats in 2022:

The President's Party Loses an Average 30 Seats in Midterm Elections

Read a list of midterm election results and find out why the president's party almost always loses seats in Congress. There are few exceptions.

www.thoughtco.com

No, it was of a margin that is rarely seen these days. One of the biggest blowouts of the last 30 years.

Not saying he is running again. Just that they won't eject Trump (or convict as it's the topic of this thread) or Trumpists. They will remain a force.

They have two choice, keep the the Trumpists happy and get their support in midterms, or try to eject them and fracture the party by working against them and losing significant support. It should be obvious which strategy will get the most seats.

Yes, the obvious answer is that sidelining Trump would get them the most seats as making hideously unpopular people your standard bearer is a bad plan for winning popularity contests. Remember, the question is not ‘what will get us the most votes?’ It is ‘what will get us more votes than our opponent?’ Keeping the Trumpists happy is what makes everyone else hate them, and it’s what made them lose the entire government.

I mean I’m all for them continuing to do that, but if I were them and were trying to win I would be looking to tamp down the Trumpiness.

 

[woolfe9998]

I think the more plausible reason is that national catastrophes often have the effect of strengthening support for leadership, at least in the near term. Look at Bush after 9/11, for example.

So no, I don’t think it’s at all clear that COVID hurt Trump - I think if I had to bet I would say it helped him.



No, it was of a margin that is rarely seen these days. One of the biggest blowouts of the last 30 years.


Yes, the obvious answer is that sidelining Trump would get them the most seats as making hideously unpopular people your standard bearer is a bad plan for winning popularity contests. Remember, the question is not ‘what will get us the most votes?’ It is ‘what will get us more votes than our opponent?’ Keeping the Trumpists happy is what makes everyone else hate them, and it’s what made them lose the entire government.

I mean I’m all for them continuing to do that, but if I were them and were trying to win I would be looking to tamp down the Trumpiness.

I agree. I think the key point in all of this is that while Trump being the standard bearer may fire up the GOP base, he fires up the dem base even more. We just saw it happen this last election cycle, and the enthusiasm even carried over to the two GA runoffs where Trump wasn't on the ballot. None of that was because Biden was such an inspiring figure. Reasonably well liked, sure, but not someone to inspire unprecedented turnout. It was Trump who did that.

And so long as the GOP continues to be seen as the party of Trump, I think it's going to carry over to future elections until they get him out of their system.

 

[Heartbreaker]

So no, I don’t think it’s at all clear that COVID hurt Trump - I think if I had to bet I would say it helped him.

Well, we won't agree on that.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-did-covid-19-affect-the-2020-election/

So, what can we ultimately say about the impact of COVID-19 on the 2020 election? Most likely, it worked against Trump. Had there been no pandemic, he may have still lost the popular vote, but considering how close the election was, he may have had a decent chance of winning the Electoral College. Yet the damage to his prospects was far from enormous, and that may have been mitigated somewhat by polarization. Indeed, a better response on Trump’s part that either helped reduce the spread of the disease or limit its economic impact could well have secured his reelection bid.

No, it was of a margin that is rarely seen these days. One of the biggest blowouts of the last 30 years.

Read the link I included. Midterm losses in first term:

Trump: 41
Obama: 63
Clinton: 52

Keeping the Trumpists happy is what makes everyone else hate them, and it’s what made them lose the entire government.

Wishful thinking. They are playing to the base. Not the Democrats, and the Trumpists are the base.

Are you are harboring similar wishful thinking that Trump will be convicted? I think this will be dashed soundly very soon.

 

[fskimospy]

Well, we won't agree on that.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-did-covid-19-affect-the-2020-election/

I mean if you actually read the article the basic idea is ‘we have no idea’.

Read the link I included. Midterm losses in first term:

Trump: 41
Obama: 63
Clinton: 52

This fundamentally misunderstands house elections now vs. historical ones. The number of competitive districts is much smaller now than it was in the past, so fewer seats change hands, generally speaking. Obama was an exception because his victory was so large that Democrats barely took a number of very red seats, which they subsequently lost again.

If you look at the margin, it was one of the largest blowouts in recent history.

Wishful thinking. They are playing to the base. Not the Democrats, and the Trumpists are the base.

It’s literally what happened like three months ago, lol. So if by ‘wishful thinking’ you mean ‘observed reality’ then sure.

Yes, they played to the base and they lost everything. This is exactly what I’ve been telling you - what is the confusion? We all just saw it happen!

Are you are harboring similar wishful thinking that Trump will be convicted? I think this will be dashed soundly very soon.

Does a single person on here think he will be convicted? Like, even one? Where are you getting these bizarre ideas?

 

[soundforbjt]

I agree. I think the key point in all of this is that while Trump being the standard bearer may fire up the GOP base, he fires up the dem base even more. We just saw it happen this last election cycle, and the enthusiasm even carried over to the two GA runoffs where Trump wasn't on the ballot. None of that was because Biden was such an inspiring figure. Reasonably well liked, sure, but not someone to inspire unprecedented turnout. It was Trump who did that.

And so long as the GOP continues to be seen as the party of Trump, I think it's going to carry over to future elections until they get him out of their system.

You’re putting too much faith in voters, they have the memories of goldfish.

 

[ch33zw1z]

You’re putting too much faith in voters, they have the memories of goldfish.

GOP == GOldfish Party 😉

But in reality, it's just americans.

I was watching "the juror" on hulu, and the main character is being interviewed by the judge, and she says she doesn't follow the news cuz she's a single mother and works, and the atmosphere in The courtroom is supposed to be surprised or a joke, but I'm like yea....that's some accurate shit mang, that's by design.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I mean if you actually read the article the basic idea is ‘we have no idea’.

I read the article, and the conclusion stands. They obvious can't know for certain, but they clearly come down on the side of it hurting trump, and better COVID response would likely have won the election.

I also read other polling on the importance of COVID handling to voters.

It was critically important to Biden voters, and near irrelevant to Trump voters.

Remember Trump didn't even better than he did in 2020. The only reason he lost is because the Democrats were more motivated to get out and vote, and with COVID a big issue for them, without it many more probably wouldn't have been as motivated.

No evidence anywhere that I have seen leads to COVID helping Trump. That just isn't a reasonable conclusion.

This fundamentally misunderstands house elections now vs. historical ones. The number of competitive districts is much smaller now than it was in the past, so fewer seats change hands, generally speaking.

Golf clap on the goalpost shift. You claimed Trump midterms were the biggest loss in 30 years. In reality he lost less than both Obama and Clinton. Now you are trying to downplay those losses and amplify Trumps.

 

[woolfe9998]

You’re putting too much faith in voters, they have the memories of goldfish.

You're generally right about this, but Trump is our deepest wound like, ever. And if Trump continues as their standard bearer and he's in the news cycle constantly, then we're not going to forget no matter how much many of us would prefer to. That was my point. They should excise the cancer of Trump from their party right now, THEN people will forget. If not, we're never going to stop being reminded of him, and of what happened on 1/6.

 

[soundforbjt]

GOP == GOldfish Party 😉

But in reality, it's just americans.

I was watching "the juror" on hulu, and the main character is being interviewed by the judge, and she says she doesn't follow the news cuz she's a single mother and works, and the atmosphere in The courtroom is supposed to be surprised or a joke, but I'm like yea....that's some accurate shit mang, that's by design.

Absolutely, they get more “news” from catching up on Facebook or tweets when they have spare time.

 

[alien42]

You're generally right about this, but Trump is our deepest wound like, ever. And if Trump continues as their standard bearer and he's in the news cycle constantly, then we're not going to forget no matter how much many of us would prefer to. That was my point. They should excise the cancer of Trump from their party right now, THEN people will forget. If not, we're never going to stop being reminded of him, and of what happened on 1/6.

Trump is just a tumor, the party itself is the cancer.

 

[fskimospy]

I read the article, and the conclusion stands. They obvious can't know for certain, but they clearly come down on the side of it hurting trump, and better COVID response would likely have won the election.

Okay - anyone here can read the article. They are very upfront with the fact that they really don’t know.

I also read other polling on the importance of COVID handling to voters.

It was critically important to Biden voters, and near irrelevant to Trump voters.

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make here.

Remember Trump didn't even better than he did in 2020. The only reason he lost is because the Democrats were more motivated to get out and vote, and with COVID a big issue for them, without it many more probably wouldn't have been as motivated.

No evidence anywhere that I have seen leads to COVID helping Trump. That just isn't a reasonable conclusion.

No, Trump did considerably worse in 2020 than he did in 2016. This is just math.

Imagine a football team losing 14-7 one game and then losing 35-14 the next and saying they did better because they scored more points. As previously mentioned, the number of votes you get is irrelevant. It’s whether you got more than the other guy.

As I keep trying to tell you this is why the base strategy failed and why Republicans lost everything. They motivated their own base at the cost of alienating swing voters and motivating Democrats even more. It was a total failure.

Golf clap on the goalpost shift. You claimed Trump midterms were the biggest loss in 30 years. In reality he lost less than both Obama and Clinton. Now you are trying to downplay those losses and amplify Trumps.

No, I’m simply repeating the same thing I’ve said many times on here in the past, and it’s entirely accurate. I doubt you actually think the fact that the number of actually competitive seats is not highly relevant, you just don’t want to admit it.

 

[Heartbreaker]

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make here.
No, Trump did considerably worse in 2020 than he did in 2016. This is just math.

No Trump got significantly more votes in 2020. It's pretty simple math really.

Bad sports analogies don't apply, and it is the point about the importance of COVID.

Democrats won because they were highly motivated to get out and vote, and improved even more than the Trumpists. The COVID debacle was a big motivating factor for Democrats. Polls show it was a critical issue for Democrats (not Republicans).

No COVID = Less motivated Democrats, vs Trump that did better than 2016 is a recipe for another Trump win.

COVID likely saved America from another Trump term.

 

[DaaQ]

No Trump got significantly more votes in 2020. It's pretty simple math really.

Bad sports analogies don't apply, and it is the point about the importance of COVID.

Democrats won because they were highly motivated to get out and vote, and improved even more than the Trumpists. The COVID debacle was a big motivating factor for Democrats. Polls show it was a critical issue for Democrats (not Republicans).

No COVID = Less motivated Democrats, vs Trump that did better than 2016 is a recipe for another Trump win.

COVID likely saved America from another Trump term.

Since a majority of Trump supporters do not even think there is anything to fear because the "flu" is worse.
I.E. there will be less living Trump supporters.

 

[fskimospy]

No Trump got significantly more votes in 2020. It's pretty simple math really.

He got more votes, and yet lost by more.

If you want to explain why losing by more is better because the total score is higher I’m open to hearing it but I doubt it will be very convincing.

Bad sports analogies don't apply, and it is the point about the importance of COVID.

I mean it’s about as perfect an analogy as you’re going to get. His ‘score’ was higher but his margin of defeat was larger. The reason why sports analysts use point differential is that the difference between the scores is what matters, not the sum of the two scores together.

Democrats won because they were highly motivated to get out and vote, and improved even more than the Trumpists. The COVID debacle was a big motivating factor for Democrats. Polls show it was a critical issue for Democrats (not Republicans).

No COVID = Less motivated Democrats, vs Trump that did better than 2016 is a recipe for another Trump win.

COVID likely saved America from another Trump term.

Nah, there’s little evidence for that. Turnout was sky high in 2018 with no COVID. In both 2018 and 2020 Trump drove turnout for both parties. This is, once again, what doomed Republicans. He had a ~40% approval rating on Election Day. If the top issue is the guy that most people dislike, you lose.

For example in 2018 Republicans said immigration was their #1 issue and their turnout was very high. Was that the reason they actually turned out though? Of course not, they turned out because of Trump, as seems to be the basis for your argument. The same thing holds true for Democrats.

 

[MtnMan]

The list of fucking traitors to the Constitution.. Never forget these bastards, oppose them always, and vote their asses out the next time they are on the ballot.

Barrasso (R-WY)
Blackburn (R-TN)
Blunt (R-MO)
Boozman (R-AR)
Braun (R-IN)
Burr (R-NC)
Capito (R-WV)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Cotton (R-AR)
Cramer (R-ND)
Crapo (R-ID)
Cruz (R-TX)
Daines (R-MT)
Ernst (R-IA)
Fischer (R-NE)
Graham (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)
Hagerty (R-TN)
Hawley (R-MO)
Hoeven (R-ND)
Hyde-Smith (R-MS)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Johnson (R-WI)
Kennedy (R-LA)
Lankford (R-OK)
Lee (R-UT)
Lummis (R-WY)
Marshall (R-KS)
McConnell (R-KY)
Moran (R-KS)
Paul (R-KY)
Portman (R-OH)
Risch (R-ID)
Rounds (R-SD)
Rubio (R-FL)
Scott (R-FL)
Scott (R-SC)
Shelby (R-AL)
Sullivan (R-AK)
Thune (R-SD)
Tillis (R-NC)
Tuberville (R-AL)
Wicker (R-MS)
Young (R-IN)

 

[ivwshane]

The list of fucking traitors to the Constitution.. Never forget these bastards, oppose them always, and vote their asses out the next time they are on the ballot.
Barrasso (R-WY)
Blackburn (R-TN)
Blunt (R-MO)
Boozman (R-AR)
Braun (R-IN)
Burr (R-NC)
Capito (R-WV)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Cotton (R-AR)
Cramer (R-ND)
Crapo (R-ID)
Cruz (R-TX)
Daines (R-MT)
Ernst (R-IA)
Fischer (R-NE)
Graham (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)
Hagerty (R-TN)
Hawley (R-MO)
Hoeven (R-ND)
Hyde-Smith (R-MS)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Johnson (R-WI)
Kennedy (R-LA)
Lankford (R-OK)
Lee (R-UT)
Lummis (R-WY)
Marshall (R-KS)
McConnell (R-KY)
Moran (R-KS)
Graham (R-SC)
Grassley (R-IA)
Hagerty (R-TN)
Hawley (R-MO)
Hoeven (R-ND)
Hyde-Smith (R-MS)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Johnson (R-WI)
Kennedy (R-LA)
Lankford (R-OK)
Lee (R-UT)
Lummis (R-WY)
Marshall (R-KS)
McConnell (R-KY)
Moran (R-KS)

I hope I never run into one of them as I may have to be a “peaceful patriot”.

 

[Heartbreaker]

He got more votes, and yet lost by more.

If you want to explain why losing by more is better because the total score is higher I’m open to hearing it but I doubt it will be very convincing.


I mean it’s about as perfect an analogy as you’re going to get. His ‘score’ was higher but his margin of defeat was larger. The reason why sports analysts use point differential is that the difference between the scores is what matters, not the sum of the two scores together.


Nah, there’s little evidence for that. Turnout was sky high in 2018 with no COVID. In both 2018 and 2020 Trump drove turnout for both parties. This is, once again, what doomed Republicans. He had a ~40% approval rating on Election Day. If the top issue is the guy that most people dislike, you lose.

For example in 2018 Republicans said immigration was their #1 issue and their turnout was very high. Was that the reason they actually turned out though? Of course not, they turned out because of Trump, as seems to be the basis for your argument. The same thing holds true for Democrats.

Sure.

So you must be happy with the Impeachment outcome. Republicans are standing fast with Trump and the Trumpist.

According to you this is losing strategy for them.

I guess we find out in 2 years...

 

[MtnMan]

I wonder what the count would be if the ballot was secret. I fully believe that fear of republicans by republicans effected some that lack courage to defend anything but their own greed and self-interests.

 

[MtnMan]

Wonder if civil "wrongful death" lawsuits against Trump by the families of the dead Capitol Police officers is a possibility.