Odds of conviction?

[MtnMan]

What odds would you give for a conviction for Impeachment Part Deux?

 

[sandorski]

Not good.

 

[Pohemi]

2/3 majority required, not enough Democrats, and barely any GOP members with any shred of integrity. Not going to happen, I'm afraid.

 

[ElFenix]

if the GQP were really strategic about it there would be quite a few just not in attendance during the vote. 25 can vote no and 25 can not be present and there'd be a conviction and no trump 2024 issue. and for every 2 that vote yes another can vote no. so i'd assume romney will vote yes again, and maybe the one from maine will finally think that trump did not learn his lesson.

 

[mikeymikec]

I think that the GOP are afraid that if they don't have someone as "matey" as Trump, they'll never be voted in again.

 

[NTMBK]

I don't know. All this video evidence feels like a preview of attack ads for 2022. If they vote to acquit, the Dems will use it against them, big time.

So basically it comes down to whether Republicans are more afraid of losing in the primary, or losing in the general.

 

[dawp]

they can always just not show up for the vote under the pretense of the trial is unconstitutional and still have trump barred from ever running again.

in my opinion, that would be the smart thing to do but when have we ever accused the GOP of being smart. that's why I gave it a <10% chance of convicting.

 

[shortylickens]

very low. like 100:1.

Donald is a rich white guy who's spent his whole life gaming the system. How many of those ever get convicted for anything. Last I checked nobody served time for the housing market scandal. Only one guy served any time for the Enron scandal and I heard he got let out VERY early.

 

[NWRMidnight]

they can always just not show up for the vote under the pretense of the trial is unconstitutional and still have trump barred from ever running again.

in my opinion, that would be the smart thing to do but when have we ever accused the GOP of being smart. that's why I gave it a <10% chance of convicting.

11 republicans and 1 democrate where absent today, not sure how many yesterday. As far as I am concerned you miss any part of the trial, you should be banned from casting a vote.

 

[Fenixgoon]

Ever so slightly above 0, so I voted <10

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Zero

 

[ch33zw1z]

The GOP is too far down the rabbit hole to turn on trump. They're now the party of crazy uncle conspiracy theories

 

[zinfamous]

looks like about 6 : 50 ?

I don't know how odds work.

 

[zinfamous]

Zero

We may need to put all of the GQP on double secret probation after this.

 

[Amol S.]

If Trump comes out saying, I am running for president for 2024, then your gona see Republicans loose thier minds and start screaming "Noooo! We do not want you! Guitly!!!!!!!!!!!!" They are all hoping Trump does not run.

 

[ch33zw1z]

If Trump comes out saying, I am running for president for 2024, then your gona see Republicans loose thier minds and start screaming "Noooo! We do not want you! Guitly!!!!!!!!!!!!" They are all hoping Trump does not run.

I think it's the opposite. They won't admit what's going on because they're on the tail end of a decades long misinformation campaign, and they need someone like trump to keep the fire burning. Don't forget, trump got 10+ million MORE votes in 2020

 

[cytg111]

looks like about 6 : 50 ?

I don't know how odds work.

Thats 1100%.

 

[ewdotson]

Me: What are the chances of a guy like Trump getting convicted in his impeachment trial?
P&N: Not good.
Me: Not good like one in a hundred?
P&N: I'd say more like one in a million.
Me: So you're telling me there's a chance?

 

[ch33zw1z]

Me: What are the chances of a guy like Trump getting convicted in his impeachment trial?
P&N: Not good.
Me: Not good like one in a hundred?
P&N: I'd say more like one in a million.
Me: So you're telling me there's a chance?

Kinda like this

 

[sdifox]

zero

 

[GoPackGo]

I think this is what will happen... he won't be convicted but the the vote will be 55-45. I think not being convicted in the Senate virtually ensures he will be charged criminally. The house put together a hell of a criminal case. I think Trump will be sued civilly either way.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

They'v already picked their out since the evidence itself is so damning. Procedure. He's out of office, what's the point. They wash their hands and don't have to address any of the merits.

I mean christ members of the "Jury" were consulting with Trump's lawyers.

 

[cytg111]

The fix is in? The he defense having pre trial relations with the jury?

Yea that is how that is supposed to work.

Anderson Cooper: ‘The Fix Is Likely In’ On Trump’s Impeachment Trial

The CNN anchor pointed to a meeting between GOP senators and Trump's defense attorneys.

m.huffpost.com

What a mockery.

 

[Leymenaide]

`I think a conviction now would reduce the likelihood of Federal prosecutions later. When they let him walk tomorrow hopefully a floodgate of prosecutions will open.

 

[pauldun170]

Unless someone died, no republican is going to con...
Unless Trump specifically told someone to murder...
(Dammit, GOP always plays that "You can't take him literally card)

A conviction of Trump is a conviction of the Republican base.
That's the tag line.

That's why after a sitting president declared elections results invalid, attempted to horrifically shart on our system and told his goons that they need to fuck shit up, Republicans will ignore EVERYTHING and try and change the subject.
The democrats could show a video of Trump himself using an American flag to smash the windows and paying some woman to piss on him on Pelosi's desk while cheering on a police officer getting dick punched and Republicans will try and change the subject to how we need to open Schools and how AOC is a socialist.
That and not guilty because technically the women was pissing on Pelosi's desk and he, simply a victim was caught in between.