Odds of Biden stepping down, being replaced. Choose.

[fskimospy]

Only to people who watch convention speeches.

Or who watch the news where people talked a lot about his convention speech.

 

[Jaskalas]

No I'm saying he could smooth the path for Harris in exchange for dropping out. Do one last favor for the old man, would likely be persuasive.

If he were capable of a rational and graceful decision, he wouldn't need to step down in the first place.

 

[manly]

Some 10M people, presumably mostly Democrats, watched him give that speech.

If he wasn't tapped for that speech, he probably stays unknown to people outside of Illinois, and never ascends to the presidency.

 

[Zorba]

Harris isn't the answer. She isn't getting you the states you *need*.

MI, WI, PA. Good luck.

Wasn't lack of black turn out a big part of Hillary's downfall in those states?

 

[Zorba]

Dems just have the ever growing problem of appeasing a tent of 20 different interests.

GOP has like three. Rich white guys. Poor white guys. Evangelicals. The end.

It's virtually impossible for one candidate to hit the balance and Obama is about as close as you get. A strategic VP pick can cover some blind spots. But Dems just have a far more complicated map and electorate to appeal to.

And they don't actually do anything for the poor white guys.

 

[K1052]

And they don't actually do anything for the poor white guys.

Nothing beyond culture/race war anyway.

 

[manly]

And they don't actually do anything for the poor white guys.

LBJ nailed it, but we've never figured out how to defeat it.

LBJ: 'If You Can Convince the Lowest White Man He's Better Than the Best Colored Man ...'

President Lyndon B. Johnson, who grew up in the South and understood the politics of racism from the inside, saw it in part as a ploy to divide and conquer.

www.snopes.com

Just like all those GQP voters who still want "ObamaCare" repealed, but agree with many specific provisions of the ACA when asked about them. 🤣

 

[nakedfrog]

And they don't actually do anything for the poor white guys.

They give them a reacharound.

 

[VRAMdemon]

It's being reported that Biden has COVID!

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-lauded-by-former-rivals-haley-desantis-show-unity-republican-convention-2024-07-17/

 

[K1052]

So...

1) Party rank and file wants you out.
2) Party leaders want you out and are now strategizing/leaking against you
3) Big donors have cut off the money
4) Polls about how your own voters view you are basically dogshit covered in sprinkles
5) The media is never going to let go of the age issue
6) There are signs of a possible delegate revolt brewing

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813725400264245337

 

[fskimospy]

So...

1) Party rank and file wants you out.
2) Party leaders want you out and are now strategizing/leaking against you
3) Big donors have cut off the money
4) Polls about how your own voters view you are basically dogshit covered in sprinkles
5) The media is never going to let go of the age issue
6) There are signs of a possible delegate revolt brewing

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813725400264245337

It does seem like my 0% prediction was wrong. I really thought he would just hammer the party down but it appears there were brewing doubts I wasn’t aware of.

 

[MrSquished]

LBJ nailed it, but we've never figured out how to defeat it.

LBJ: 'If You Can Convince the Lowest White Man He's Better Than the Best Colored Man ...'

President Lyndon B. Johnson, who grew up in the South and understood the politics of racism from the inside, saw it in part as a ploy to divide and conquer.

www.snopes.com

Just like all those GQP voters who still want "ObamaCare" repealed, but agree with many specific provisions of the ACA when asked about them. 🤣

It's pretty crazy. We have had literal presidents tell us how fucked up shit is - LBJ with this and Eisenhower with warning about the military industrial complex. These aren't fringe conspiracy theorists. But too many people learn nothing.

Also Obama winning had nothing to do with his speaking prowess, but rather the Shephard Fairy visual ditty that blew up

 

[MrSquished]

So...

1) Party rank and file wants you out.
2) Party leaders want you out and are now strategizing/leaking against you
3) Big donors have cut off the money
4) Polls about how your own voters view you are basically dogshit covered in sprinkles
5) The media is never going to let go of the age issue
6) There are signs of a possible delegate revolt brewing

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813725400264245337

Brother, keep on bringing the good news tonight! Looks like the Dems might actually do this! Let's go fuck up Trump!

 

[K1052]

seems like a notable shift in his thinking

https://twitter.com/x/status/1813726276844392950

 

[Jaskalas]

It does seem like my 0% prediction was wrong. I really thought he would just hammer the party down but it appears there were brewing doubts I wasn’t aware of.

"He would just hammer the party down"
Read the report of the phone call with 50 House Dems, where Biden seemed incapable of coherent thought.
If Trump wasn't nearly killed, it would have been all the headlines on Monday. But it has broken now anyway, and THIS is why the leadership has turned. Because there IS NO President Biden. Not anymore.

With today's news, I change my vote to 100% replaced.

 

[MrSquished]

It does seem like my 0% prediction was wrong. I really thought he would just hammer the party down but it appears there were brewing doubts I wasn’t aware of.

it seems your constant harping that Biden is the best candidate the Dems could have over and over again and making it sound like to think otherwise was crazy and irresponsible - was also 0% correct. In fact, if something could be less than 0% correct, it's quite possible that this could do it. Probably up there with some of the worst political predictions/instincts over the last few decades.

 

[Fenixgoon]

it seems your constant harping that Biden is the best candidate the Dems could have over and over again and making it sound like to think otherwise was crazy and irresponsible - was also 0% correct. In fact, if something could be less than 0% correct, it's quite possible that this could do it. Probably up there with some of the worst political predictions/instincts over the last few decades.

once something has resolved you're either 0% correct or 100% correct. binary outcome. biden stays, or biden goes.

i didn't vote in the poll but i definitely would have a voted for a low-but-non-zero value (probably 10-20% range). things have been kind of snowballing against him though.

 

[MrSquished]

once something has resolved you're either 0% correct or 100% correct. binary outcome. biden stays, or biden goes.

i didn't vote in the poll but i definitely would have a voted for a low-but-non-zero value (probably 10-20% range). things have been kind of snowballing against him though.

true, but this prediction poll is not what I was really talking about. I'm talking about a far longer term thing.

 

[gothuevos]

it seems your constant harping that Biden is the best candidate the Dems could have over and over again and making it sound like to think otherwise was crazy and irresponsible - was also 0% correct. In fact, if something could be less than 0% correct, it's quite possible that this could do it. Probably up there with some of the worst political predictions/instincts over the last few decades.

It's ok, he's in good company - I switched my vote to 0% a few days ago! LOL

 

[vi edit]

Ok, you know what. Fuck it.
Put Harris in coach.

I want to see her make Putin squirm like Claire did vs Putin Jr. in House of Cards.

I think President Harris can be a badass. I'm in.

 

[MrSquished]

It's ok, he's in good company - I switched my vote to 0% a few days ago! LOL

As I mentioned in the post you quoted, I was not talking about this particular poll. I was talking about something way more long-term and way more discussed about.

 

[MrSquished]

Ok, you know what. Fuck it.
Put Harris in coach.

I want to see her make Putin squirm like Claire did vs Putin Jr. in House of Cards.

I think President Harris can be a badass. I'm in.

I think she can be too. She's not my ideal candidate, but she's a hell of a lot better than Biden, she's the only choice now. Biden prevented us from having a primary to actually put forth the best candidate. He stole that chance from us. Well him and his circle. Right now we don't know how much of this was Biden and how much of this was his weird cult-like inner circle power grabbing whispering bullshit in his ear this whole time. So maybe he was more of a victim I don't know.

But, We are where we are but at least we're potentially in a better place than we were 24 hours ago.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Ok, you know what. Fuck it.
Put Harris in coach.

I want to see her make Putin squirm like Claire did vs Putin Jr. in House of Cards.

I think President Harris can be a badass. I'm in.

Regardless you and I will vote for whomever is the nominee, it is a simple choice former President Trump who is absolutely a dictator wannabe and his revenge tour or someone else.
I’ll chose someone else please.

I still say Harris is a boring unlikable choice and I fear that.

 

[Paratus]

it seems your constant harping that Biden is the best candidate the Dems could have over and over again and making it sound like to think otherwise was crazy and irresponsible - was also 0% correct. In fact, if something could be less than 0% correct, it's quite possible that this could do it. Probably up there with some of the worst political predictions/instincts over the last few decades.

Fundamentally there is no way to know whether Biden or Harris has the better chance to win. If Biden stays in and wins that doesn’t mean she would have lost, barely won, or handily beaten Trump by a larger margin. The same goes for if Harris runs.

I also don’t recall anyone predicting even as late as February this year that because Biden was old demonstrations of his age would cause the media, party elite and rank and file to turn against him lowering his polls until the point Harris was polling better.

I do recall a lot of us wanting him to be a 1 term transitional president while grooming some candidates for 2024. That didn’t happen.

You don’t throw out his advantages of incumbency and a successful Presidency on a whim, and that’s what it would have been if we still had SoTU Biden from earlier this year.

We don’t have that Biden anymore so a change to Harris makes sense now.

 

[MrSquished]

Fundamentally there is no way to know whether Biden or Harris has the better chance to win. If Biden stays in and wins that doesn’t mean she would have lost, barely won, or handily beaten Trump by a larger margin. The same goes for if Harris runs.

I also don’t recall anyone predicting even as late as February this year that because Biden was old demonstrations of his age would cause the media, party elite and rank and file to turn against him lowering his polls until the point Harris was polling better.

I do recall a lot of us wanting him to be a 1 term transitional president while grooming some candidates for 2024. That didn’t happen.

You don’t throw out his advantages of incumbency and a successful Presidency on a whim, and that’s what it would have been if we still had SoTU Biden from earlier this year.

We don’t have that Biden anymore so a change to Harris makes sense now.

Well clearly you aren't reading here often enough because it was predicted, a lot. I'm talking about the year + of the yammering that Biden was the clear best choice and all talk to the contrary was ridiculous, into and through the primaries, whenever a few of us brought up that he was likely a mistake, partly due to this exact scenario happening, his age and already clear decline - it was ridiculed basically. We said the advantages of incumbency were not enough here. So actually yes, we did predict this, all of it, since before he ran. But we were shot down as out of touch and not in reality and we were completely wrong and practically bonkers.

And yes, it is undeniable Harris has the better chance actually. Will she win? Dunno. Was she the best candidate? Probably not, but Biden's team took our shot of choosing the best candidate away from us, over many of our protests. But she is the best candidate now, and I am not sure how that is even a discussion at this point.