Odds of Biden stepping down, being replaced. Choose.

[K1052]

What a plan. How about just putting up a good candidate/ticket?

Since there is no option without risk here the question is which risk do we prefer. My preference would be to roll the dice on a candidate that has more potential upside based on the available information.

 

[Zorba]

Well to be clear that dismissal will most likely be rapidly overturned.

And then appealed to the Supremes who'll sit on it until July 25.

 

[Brainonska511]

What a plan. How about just putting up a good candidate/ticket?

 

[K1052]

Honestly if you are even flirting with delegate revolt scenarios you should let somebody else deal with this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1812883085228151151

 

[Zorba]

Yea, it is more than just Biden. The Dems are terrible at messaging overall. They are too caught up in identity politics and have lost touch with the hard working middle class. It is all tied together though; part of the messaging problem is that Biden is too old to counter the Rep attack, and has never been an inspiring speaker.

The Dems don't have 75% of the media doing nothing but pushing their messaging all day like Republicans. It's also much harder to message truth and real solutions than the burn it down "solutions" and non-stop lies. People don't like reading about the child tax credit, but they do love hearing about how all the people "stealing" their jobs are going to be punished.

 

[gothuevos]

based on the available information.

Based on polls that nobody can agree on whether they are good or not?

 

[Zorba]

It is odd to condemn the political instincts of the party that has gotten the most votes for president every time but once for the last 35 years.

Republicans have institutional advantages that let them hold the presidency despite their unpopularity but that's a separate issue.

The Dems did basically allow the GOP to run wild at the state and local level, though.

 

[K1052]

Based on polls that nobody can agree on whether they are good or not?

Biden's own stated metrics for getting out at this point are 1) polls show him losing 2) polls show another Dem doing better. By his own criteria he should likely withdraw.

 

[gothuevos]

What a plan. How about just putting up a good candidate/ticket?

I feel like Democrats just love to be the impotent opposition party.

I wouldn't be surprised if they've already mailed it in for the 2026 midterms.

 

[K1052]

Also fuel to the argument the problem is Biden specific. D senate candidates running away with their races.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1812882328252825810

 

[fskimospy]

I feel like Democrats just love to be the impotent opposition party.

I wouldn't be surprised if they've already mailed it in for the 2026 midterms.

lol you’re already filling your diaper for 2026 now?

Just amazing stuff here, hahahaha.

 

[gothuevos]

lol you’re already filling your diaper for 2026 now?

Just amazing stuff here, hahahaha.

And I'm sure by 2026 you'll still be going on about how close we are to holding Trump accountable.

 

[MrSquished]

The Dems did basically allow the GOP to run wild at the state and local level, though.

Exactly. Florida would like a word.

 

[manly]

You heard it here first, folks. Donald Trump's GOP is the party for the hard working middle class. 🤣

 

[fskimospy]

And I'm sure by 2026 you'll still be going on about how close we are to holding Trump accountable.

It’s sad that being wrong over and over has led to zero introspection on your part.

I guess some people are just not capable of it.

 

[Zorba]

Also fuel to the argument the problem is Biden specific. D senate candidates running away with their races.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1812882328252825810

I was with him until the debate, but he needs to step aside. Harris is a better candidate at this point.

 

[Zorba]

You heard it here first, folks. Donald Trump's GOP is the party for the hard working middle class. 🤣

Blue color workers love Trump, it's insane but true.

 

[MrSquished]

Blue color workers love Trump, it's insane but true.

They'd rather be racist or bigoted or sexist but usually a combo of all of those things

 

[K1052]

Blue color workers love Trump, it's insane but true.

Like the farmers who's Chinese export market he ruined that now have to compete against Brazil lol.

"At least he tried" is what I hear a lot. Yeah and you got f'd but won't admit it.

 

[K1052]

I was with him until the debate, but he needs to step aside. Harris is a better candidate at this point.

I have no way to know with certainty that Harris is ultimately a better candidate but given the trajectory of all things I'm asking for the dice.

 

[K1052]

Relatedly if Biden were to drop out and announce an endorsement of Harris I'd be doing it shortly after the R delegates vote for their ticket, were I him.

With their ticket baked you can hijack the news cycle and give Harris the opportunity to pick the best running mate (yes I think this probably is Shapiro anyway) without danger the Rs are going to alter their own ticket in response.

 

[MrSquished]

I have no way to know with certainty that Harris is ultimately a better candidate but given the trajectory of all things I'm asking for the dice.

I'm confident that a Harris/Shapiro ticket would turn this race from probably a bit worse than a coin flip, to something closer to a 70% win within a few weeks.

 

[Pens1566]

I'm confident that a Harris/Shapiro ticket would turn this race from probably a bit worse than a coin flip, to something closer to a 70% win within a few weeks.

That big of a % in such a divided electorate is downright impossible.

 

[repoman0]

That big of a % in such a divided electorate is downright impossible.

He meant 70% probability of a win obviously, and I happen to agree with him

 

[Pens1566]

He meant 70% probability of a win obviously, and I happen to agree with him

So, like Hillary then???