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Odds of Biden stepping down, being replaced. Choose.

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Odds of Biden stepping down

  • Total voters
    148
  • Poll closed .
So what's the issue with Harris running? (As a hypothetical question, I get that right now might not be perfect)
Plenty of other countries vote for candidates that aren't old white Christian men!
Hell even our track record is fairly good on this and you're a much more diverse country.
 
WelshBloke said:
Our election campaigns are significantly shorter than that. This one was 6 weeks.
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I do yearn for a parliamentary system at this point. Inciting a contested convention could be a serious disaster, it's actually simpler to replace Biden with Harris after he's nominated if he decides to stand down (which is the only way this actually happens).
 
K1052 said:
I do yearn for a parliamentary system at this point.
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I mean we've had issues with it! But yeah, a PM is a lot more replaceable than a President.
K1052 said:
Inciting a contested convention could be a serious disaster, it's actually simpler to replace Biden with Harris after he's nominated if he decides to stand down (which is the only way this actually happens).
Click to expand...
 
WelshBloke said:
So what's the issue with Harris running? (As a hypothetical question, I get that right now might not be perfect)
Plenty of other countries vote for candidates that aren't old white Christian men!
Hell even our track record is fairly good on this and you're a much more diverse country.
Click to expand...

If you believe the polling something like 40-50% of Dem voters still want him. There is risk of triggering a split if he comes off the ticket.
 
WelshBloke said:
Yeah I didn't mean right now, I meant in general.
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Harris has her own negatives but are they greater than Biden's at this point is the difference worth the tumult of replacement is the argument. I can see a case either way and both paths have a lot of risk.

My personal suspicion is that Biden has not made a decision yet if he's going to stay in or not. If he opts out I think he's going to do everything he can to set Harris up for success because he knows that if he allows this to degenerate into convention chaos they'll definitely lose. Biden himself saw the debate as a chance to raise his profile again like the SOTU but it didn't work out that way. His family is blaming his aides but he isn't so he likely blames himself.
 
K1052 said:
so he likely blames himself.
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Really has only himself to blame at this point. He really should have committed to one term early on and allowed the party to have a legit primary.

His decline since 2020 has been staggering in its acceleration. I don't think he will make it to November. And now we're only left with bad options.
 
As has been discussed this is an extremely complex situation. Unfortunately it's a situation we should have never been in, because there were a lot of us that didn't want Biden to run for a second term in the first place. And I'm pretty sure he himself said that he would just be a one-term president. And too many Democrats decided to just lay down and let that happen.

It looks like now we have to ride with Biden. The Biden circle and the Democratic party elite fucked us. And we have people here still carrying their water and gas letting us.. If we had a regular primary Harris would have either changed people's minds about her or she would have been eliminated. It's pretty simple.

The problem is there's a very good chance of Biden revealing again how bad his mental capacity is. There's still many months until the election. How can anybody say with a straight face that we can count on Biden now? You just can't the guy looked so fucking bad
 
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WelshBloke said:
Our election campaigns are significantly shorter than that. This one was 6 weeks.
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Shorter than 4.5 months, 6 weeks.. what? Is that why Trump/Biden have been campaigning for months already, and will continue til November 5th, 2024, because our campaigns are much shorter than that? By the time November comes around, both of them will have been campaigning for a year+. Hell, ,Trump announced he was running Nov 15, 2022.. so when novemeber 5 comes, he has been campaigning for almost 2 years.. Early campaigning, specially before the nominee conventions is the primary caimpaigns people make their decisions on. The campaigning after being nominated is basically to win over the undecided.
 
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Zorba said:
1862 wasn't an election year.
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Maybe you should read the whole statement and not just skim thru it? I said "1800's - going off memory, was around 1862, but I could be way off".

I actually had time to go look it up.. it was 1852.. I was off by 10 years. However, 1862 was an election year for Congress seats.
 
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WelshBloke said:
So what's the issue with Harris running? (As a hypothetical question, I get that right now might not be perfect)
Plenty of other countries vote for candidates that aren't old white Christian men!
Hell even our track record is fairly good on this and you're a much more diverse country.
Click to expand...
I haven't fact checked it, but CNN's Harry Enten claims that Trump also leads by ~ 4 points over Harris, Newsom or Whitmer:


For reference, polling averages have Joe Biden down by about 2 points "nationally" although that isn't how the actual elections are conducted.

To answer your question, most Democratic voters would be happy with any of the top 4 names that have been mentioned: the above 3, and Pete Buttigieg. However, for different reasons, they would be furiously resisted by MAGA and we'd be in a similar situation with swing voters. You'd basically change the question of is the U.S. going to reelect an unpopular 81-year-old incumbent to is it ready to elect:

a woman
a woman of color
a California Democrat
a gay man

In a vacuum, it sounds absurd. How could a convicted felon and shitty* ex-President actually be leading the race? Believe what you will of the polls (nobody truly knows what the error is), but there's no slam dunk Plan B for the Democrats here. So the question of how do you optimize Democrats' chances of winning is extremely difficult to answer. Honestly the fact that we're even in a disgusting 50/50 situation tells me to not trust that Americans will ultimately do the right thing. I'm naturally optimistic and think Joe can still pull it off, but you also have to fear the worst here. If you're searching for a silver lining, the two are that the fundamentals still favor Democrats and Trump is quite unpopular himself so he's nowhere near a lock.

* Not just on a personal, character level which many of us knew about in 2015. But in actual job performance, he confirmed everyone's worst fears. But almost half of America has totally forgotten or doesn't care; and that isn't just MAGA, which is approx. 1/3 of the total electorate depending on who you ask.

Per Carl Bernstein's reporting, Biden's inner circle has done us all a grave disservice:

 
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Roger Wilco said:
After the SCOTUS decision, and now this…not sure how prevalent the debate will be in the news.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1807960006664634410
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The problem is there are still 4 months until the election. Can Joe Biden be trained to take just the right amount of naps and take just the right amount of supplements to show up for anything but very scripted events? Will he start to fail at those? It looked like elder abuse up there on Thursday. The problem is people don't just get better from losing mental capacity when they're older. The people in his inner circle, And prominent Democrats need to get involved too, But they need to be honest with themselves and what they see, can Joe handle 4 More months of an intense presidential race by hiding from the media enough but not enough to be said he's hiding from the media?

Even if you're optimistic at best you're saying it's a 50/50 shot. In reality it's probably less. Not sure if those are the odds you want in order to save democracy. I mean Trump might implode as well. He didn't do well at the debate either.
 
MrSquished said:
The problem is there are still 4 months until the election. Can Joe Biden be trained to take just the right amount of naps and take just the right amount of supplements to show up for anything but very scripted events? Will he start to fail at those? It looked like elder abuse up there on Thursday. The problem is people don't just get better from losing mental capacity when they're older. The people in his inner circle, And prominent Democrats need to get involved too, But they need to be honest with themselves and what they see, can Joe handle 4 More months of an intense presidential race by hiding from the media enough but not enough to be said he's hiding from the media?

Even if you're optimistic at best you're saying it's a 50/50 shot. In reality it's probably less. Not sure if those are the odds you want in order to save democracy. I mean Trump might implode as well. He didn't do well at the debate either.
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Most betting markets and a few election forecast models (not polls) already have Trump at >60%...
 
Roger Wilco said:
After the SCOTUS decision, and now this…not sure how prevalent the debate will be in the news.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1807960006664634410
Click to expand...

LOL Trump said in an interview when he wins he'll release the Epstein list because people deserve to know who was buddy buddy with Jeffery. I suspected Trump was on the list, and I suspected saying he would make the list public was like him saying he would release his taxes. I guess being a habitchual liar doesn't matter when your core supporters either don't believe they are lies or don't care.

MAGAs won't bat at eye here, it'll either be "this is fake news!" or "Biden showered with his daughter how do you feel about that?" That was disproved but none of them believe it didn't actually happen. It's ironic how all the evidence in the world against Trump is "fake news" and a random unknown person making a negative claim about Biden is the most trustworthy intel out there.
 
NWRMidnight said:
Maybe you should read the whole statement and not just skim thru it? I said "1800's - going off memory, was around 1862, but I could be way off".

I actually had time to go look it up.. it was 1852.. I was off by 10 years. However, 1862 was an election year for Congress seats.
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I wasn't trying to be a dick, I was just saying it wasn't a presidential election year. I didn't think there was enough info in your statement to me to find it by searching. Thanks for providing the year so I can look it up.
 
QueBert said:
LOL Trump said in an interview when he wins he'll release the Epstein list because people deserve to know who was buddy buddy with Jeffery. I suspected Trump was on the list, and I suspected saying he would make the list public was like him saying he would release his taxes. I guess being a habitchual liar doesn't matter when your core supporters either don't believe they are lies or don't care.

MAGAs won't bat at eye here, it'll either be "this is fake news!" or "Biden showered with his daughter how do you feel about that?" That was disproved but none of them believe it didn't actually happen. It's ironic how all the evidence in the world against Trump is "fake news" and a random unknown person making a negative claim about Biden is the most trustworthy intel out there.
Click to expand...
Speaking of, Biden should at least his new found immunity to finally release Trump's taxes and health reports.
 
Zorba said:
Speaking of, Biden should at least his new found immunity to finally release Trump's taxes and health reports.
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Why would Biden release health reports when they say Trump was the healthiest president in history? He was a specimen the likes of which the doc had never seen.
 
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