"
So if Pennsylvania is off the boards, lets look around.
Imagine its election night, say 10:45 east coast time. Four eastern states havent been called yet: Ohio (18), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), and Florida (29). Also, in some Western states, the polls havent closed, or the races are too tight to project just yetColorado and Nevada, say. Arizona has just been called for Romney.
At this point, Romney actually leads, 188 to 182. In this scenario Im assuming Obama has won Iowa (6), which is admittedly close but where his lead has been stable at three or four points, and New Hampshire (4), where Obama has a similar fairly small but stable lead, and Michigan (16), where the gap appears to be opening up a little.
So its a six-vote Romney edge. Theyre feeling great up in Boston. Especially with the big Eastern four still up in the air. Right?
Not really. Lets look at these West Coast states. Even though theyre still voting in California, obviously Obama is going to win it (55). And equally obviously, hes going to win Washington (12) and Oregon (7), where neither side even bothered to spend a dime. Throw in Hawaii (4). Those 78 votes haul Obama up to 260. Thats something to keep in mind for election night: Whatever Obamas number is at 10 pm Eastern, add those 78 EVstheyre a mortal lock, and a hefty insurance policy. If he wins Nevada (6) and Colorado (9), its over.
In other words, Obama can lose the big Eastern fourOhio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida: all of em!and still be reelected.
And barring some huge cataclysm, hes not losing all four of those states. If he wins even onesay Virginia, the smallest of the fourthen Romney has to win Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire; all possible, certainly, but all states where he has been behind, narrowly but consistently, for weeks or months."
http://news.yahoo.com/coming-obama-landslide-025409605.html