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Obama will set precedent by winning re-election w/8%+ unemployment

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werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,876
460
126
Interesting how the same people who say "both parties are bad" are the same ones who think deficit spending is bad. How many times does it have to be explained that cutting millions of jobs during a recession would only make it worse?
I'd suggest sixteen trillion times, as a start.

We're currently spending our normal 2008 budget, PLUS TARP, PLUS the automotive bailout, PLUS the spending on the wars at their height, PLUS a modest increase. Every year. And one party is calling this austerity. There's a reason the people who realize this is insanity also recognize that both parties have their individual (and even their collective) best interests far ahead of the country's - they are pragmatic adults who, no matter which side they prefer, recognize reality.

If the makeup of the Congress and WH stay the same; I expect that attempts at end arounds will get challenge by the Republicans.

There is a leak in the dam and they will want it plugged.

4 more years of being ignored will not go down well.
Problem for the Pubbies is that the House can't do much of anything without the Senate, and Reid has given up even the slightest pretense of legislating. All he really has to do is prevent the House from interfering with Obama's remaking of American society while passing the same old spending bills. Even if the Republicans take the Senate, there is absolutely no chance they will enjoy the same filibuster-proof majority as did the Democrats. (And if they did, they would no doubt screw it up just as did the Dems.) So the Democrats can simply filibuster any attempt to rein in the President, because party now trumps even institutional power and prerogatives. I see little chance of the GOP significantly slowing Obama's changes.
 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,824
0
0
Reid has given up even the slightest pretense of legislating. All he really has to do is prevent the House from interfering with Obama's remaking of American society while passing the same old spending bills.
 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,824
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HAHAHAHAHAHA!



SNOPES says nope.

Even MSLSD acknowledges it is a lie. D:

MSNBC sorry for comparing Romney slogan to KKK
AMANDA MIKELBERG
Thursday, December 15, 2011

Hardball host Chris Matthews is very, very sorry about his network's wild pitch that Mitt Romney was aping the Ku Klux Klan's talking points.

Matthews issued an apology on behalf of MSNBC for reporting on a blog item that compared Romney's use of the slogan "Keep America American" to the 1920s message of the white supremacist group.

He blasted MSNBC's "appalling lack of judgment" on his Wednesday show.

Matthews-who was not involved in the initial report-- called the network's comparison "irresponsible and incendiary."

The eye-brow raising remarks were initially made by daytime anchor Thomas Roberts earlier in the morning. He was picking up on an item first pulled by progressive site Americablog.

An MSNBC graphic read "Romney's KKK slogan?" as Roberts said, "So you may not hear Mitt Romney say "Keep America American" anymore, because it was a rallying cry for the KKK group, and intimidation against blacks, gays and Jews, and the progressive AMERICAblog was the first to catch on to that."

The Republican presidential candidate's team immediately called out MSNBC for its misreporting, according to the New York Times, although they didn't specify exactly what was misreported.

Conservative pundits and bloggers immediately pounced after Roberts' comments. Right-leaning The Drudge Report picked up the headline "MSNBC plays Klan card."

Fellow MSNBC host Rev. Al Sharpton later said he too approved of the apology because could not "nail down all the facts" on how Romney's comment had linked to the KKK slogan.

"But as someone who has been a victim of unproven innuendo and half-truths I agree the report was not proper if you could nail down all the facts. This network did the right thing by apologizing," the left-leaning host said.
 
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werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,876
460
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LOL I prefer "That awkward moment when you realize that not everyone is as stupid and gullible as are you and therefore yet another blatant lie has backfired."

Sad to see that Seth Rogen is exactly as smart and honest as he is funny.

Gotta love Sharpton. Apologize, but then assert the facts are there, we just can't "nail them down." 2012's "fake but accurate."
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,869
0
71
Margin of Error on tomorrow's August Monthly Jobs Report (BLS) is +/ -100k:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/moment-obama-knows-tomorrows-nfp-number




Obviously headline unemployment rate (which is apparently calculated using a different "Household" survey where they just call people up and ask if they have a job or not) will resonate politically, even if it doesn't reflect underlying reality.

Morningstar economist Bob Johnson has said numerous times that if you want to honestly assess trend, you need to look at 3 month moving average on a year over year basis (not month to month with wild seasonal adjustment factors and a lot of guesstimates and fill in the blanks from shaky underlying data).
 

PJABBER

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
4,824
0
0
Obama get jobs data in advance of the public, it is hand carried to him the day before.

Watch how he spins it tonight and place your futures bet!

 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,869
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"Corporations are people too, my friend":


http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000114167&play=1

(Cramer, who used to crow all the time about government of, for, and by the corporation during the Bush years, still says corporations are definitely better off than 4 years ago, and that they have fewer employees, but greater sales than 4 years ago), even though we have a Muslim Socialist Kenyan with no business experience as TOTUS, right?



:)
 
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Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,991
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Where does this thread title shit come from that no US President ever won re-election with 8% unemployment? As we only have to go back to FDR in 1936 to find a counter example.

As we can also point out the FDR 1936 unemployment rate was a huge improvement from the 25% unemployment Hoover left us with at the end of 1932.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,877
4,209
126
Where does this thread title shit come from that no US President ever won re-election with 8% unemployment? As we only have to go back to FDR in 1936 to find a counter example.

As we can also point out the FDR 1936 unemployment rate was a huge improvement from the 25% unemployment Hoover left us with at the end of 1932.
Out of curiosity what was the '36 rate?
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,599
5
0
Out of curiosity what was the '36 rate?
Link

'32: 23.6% (19.8% when Roosevelt took office in '33)
'36: 16.9%

Note: Some of the downturn in the unemployment was due to government programs in that time like the CCC.
CCC was government workers building things :thumbsup: on projects that were not make work or short term :thumbsup: :thumbsup: meaning that the private support structure was needed to expand to meet the needs.

Unlike our failed planning of the stimulus under Obama.
Little was built that was not already in the pipeline
No long term projects requiring tooling up of the private sector.

In '32-'36 the US Populations was between 125M and 1230M
figure one of four workers per family = 60M households
The CCC had 300K working for it on average.
 

mshan

Diamond Member
Nov 16, 2004
7,869
0
71
August Monthly Jobs Report (BLS):

Some College or Associate's Degree: 7.1% (July) --> 6.6% (August)

Less than High School: 12.7 (July)--> 12% (August)

High School, No College: has been trending up from April (7.9%) --> May (8.1%) --> June (8.4%) --> July (8.7) --> August (8.8%)


http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea05.htm



Headlines and soundbytes we will all see and hear on tv and internet don't reflect underlying reality, at least for a good portion of economy...
 

umbrella39

Lifer
Jun 11, 2004
13,820
1,123
126
What do you think the voters will then do.

Possibly setup a clean sweep
Perhaps and perhaps not the ones you think will be holding the broom. 4 more years of la la la fingers in the ears we won't do shit unless you extend the tax cuts for the rich bullshit will not bode any better in 2016.
 

IGBT

Lifer
Jul 16, 2001
17,699
47
91
so if we do the math at the end of four years of the obama 2nd term.. unemployment will be down to 7.4% and 5 million people will have dropped out of the work force.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,599
5
0
Perhaps and perhaps not the ones you think will be holding the broom. 4 more years of la la la fingers in the ears we won't do shit unless you extend the tax cuts for the rich bullshit will not bode any better in 2016.
If the Democrats can not fix the problem; they will still blame it on Bush.

They seem unable to accept responsibility for government even though they asked for it, received the responsibility for it and are running it.

Given a blank check and eight years at the helm; they would seem to be doing something wrong at that point.
 

blankslate

Diamond Member
Jun 16, 2008
8,471
423
126
The real tragedy is that if the Republicans weren't so focused on this guys goal...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTuW-a_qFlA
then this country's unemployment rate could very well be below 8% right now

Last year President Obama proposed the American Jobs Act. detailed here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Jobs_Act

According to these links
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63069.html
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/09/09/Moodys-Obama-plan-would-add-19M-jobs/UPI-85541315555200/

If the jobs bill had been passed it would have increased jobs by about 1.9 million and cut the unemployment rate by about 1%



Which means that according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic's chart below....

...had President Obama's proposed jobs bill been passed the unemployment rate could be about (8.x% minus ~1% =) ~7.x% which is less than 8%



TLDR
If the Republicans in Congress could have stopped being pricks long enough to pass a jobs bill.

The unemployment rate would likely be under 8%.
 
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EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,599
5
0
Given the amount of jobs promised vs delivered by the stimulus, I am very very distrustful of government statements on policies putting people to work.

Notice that the Jobs bill did not even get into the Senate. Reid shot it down. The Republicans did not even get a chance to look at it. It was DOA from when Obama offered it up.
 
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