Obama might be in trouble for 2012

[sportage]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...f-polls-presidents-approval-rating-declining/

Washington (CNN) – President Barack Obama's job approval rating among Americans is edging down, according to an average of the most recent national polls.

A CNN Poll of Polls compiled and released Friday indicates that 45 percent of the public say they approve of the job the president's doing in the White House, with 48 percent saying they disapprove of how Obama's handling his duties.

This latest edition of the CNN Poll of Polls is an average of three national surveys conducted within the past week: ABC/Washington Post (April 14-17), CBS/New York Times (April 15-20) and the Gallup Tracking Poll (April 18-20). The CNN Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

The 45 percent approval rating is down from a 52 percent approval rating in a CNN Poll of Polls from mid-January, which was the high point so far this year for the president's approval numbers.

The new approval rating figures come as four national polls conducted this month indicate that pessimism on the direction the country's headed is on the rise. Survey's from CBS/New York Times, McClatchy/Marist, Reuters/Ipsos, and NBC Wall Street Journal all indicate that the percentage of Americans who think the country's headed in the wrong direction is on the rise, hitting 70 percent in the CBS/New York Times poll.

All these surveys come as gas prices are soaring, and as partisan battles over the budget and the nation's massive deficit are raging.

Have you been watching the Obama rally’s live on c-span or CNN?
One thing I've noticed... they remind me of John Kerry's rally’s.
Obama seems to have lost that electricity. His rally’s look pretty pathetic.
For the first time I really feel republicans could win the whitehouse in 2012,
that is if they had a sane and realistic candidate to put up there.
Trump might have had a shot if he had not went south, jumping on that birther wagon
and playing the salesman. The salesman selling Donald Trump inc.
Add in high gas prices, and it looks like 2012 will in no way be the repeat of 2008 for Obama.
Something is different... A lot of the cross-over voters that voted for Obama and that desire to make history, those voters have changed. Something is different this time.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

If I were a Dem I wouldn't worry. The Reps will almost certainly snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

 

[shortylickens]

If he keeps closing down my college to make gay ass speeches he sure as shit will be.

 

[Infohawk]

Didn't we already have a thread on this just recently? Polls are a lagging indicator of the economy. Employment numbers are going up. There's a long way to go.

 

[dmcowen674]

Obama might be in trouble for 2012

You think?

 

[wuliheron]

With a few rare exceptions Americans hate all politicians. Even most of the presidents we now look back fondly on were widely hated when they were in office. Some people have a lot of love to give, we have a lot of hate. In Obama's case he just has to be hated less then his opponent and since we don't know who that is yet its anyone's guess.

 

[Jhhnn]

Who's going to beat him? Trump/Palin? Huckabee/Bachmann?

Go ahead- see if you can convince me that the electorate won't pick Republican-lite over real looney tune Republicans...

 

[dmcowen674]

Didn't we already have a thread on this just recently? Polls are a lagging indicator of the economy.

Employment numbers are going up. There's a long way to go.

and wages are dropping like a rock with expenses like gas and food leading the way.

Jobs won't help him

 

[ProfJohn]

Watch his approval numbers.

Anything below 50% means he is gone.

With the ways things are going now it will take a miracle for him to win. With gas prices as high as they are now it is going to kill the economy and then unemployment will start to rise again and there will not be enough time for the economy to recover before 2012.

Bill Clinton was the luckiest president ever, peace dividend + took office at the start of a recovery, Obama is probably the least luckiest president ever.

 

[rudeguy]

Didn't we already have a thread on this just recently? Polls are a lagging indicator of the economy. Employment numbers are going up. There's a long way to go.

Link showing employment numbers going up?

 

[Rainsford]

I might agree...except "Republicans" aren't going to be trying to beat President Obama in 2012. It's going to be a specific Republican running against him, and that's what looks to be a problem for the Republicans at the moment. Because there isn't really a Republican right now who is going to run who could beat Obama. In fact, each potential Republican candidate seems to be worse than the last.

2012 might not be a repeat of 2008, but it's looking like another 2004 to me, except with the positions reversed. In 2004, President Bush was wildly unpopular, and the campaign of "anybody but Bush" was going strong. Except when we got around to the actual election, it turned out that "anybody" was John Kerry, and for the majority of voters, "anybody but Bush" worked a lot better than "Kerry instead of Bush".

There's no question that right now Obama looks like he's beatable in 2012. But while his unpopularity might be going up, that doesn't mean the voters will prefer ANYONE to Obama. And the problem for the Republicans is that they seem to be holding a contest to find the biggest jackasses they possibly can, apparently in the belief that literally anyone can beat Obama. I'm not so sure.

 

[ProfJohn]

I think he meant unemployment

Higher gas prices will result in less consumption of other gods and will result in higher unemployment. There is nothing Obama can do about it unless he can lower the price of gas.

Ending the White House anti-drilling stance and opening every inch of land possible might be his only hope. But that would require him to stab his party in the back.

 

[Infohawk]

Link showing employment numbers going up?

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Unemployment-Falling-Broadly-Across-US-120218054.html

The government said that employers hired more workers in 38 states, while the rest of the states and the city of Washington, D.C., lost jobs.

Analysts said the employment figures show that the nation's job market is gaining strength and that employers are becoming confident enough about the country's economic recovery to hire more workers.

 

[Throckmorton]

I hope a Republican wins. Let's see you do better.

 

[Rainsford]

Watch his approval numbers.

Anything below 50% means he is gone.
...

That's not really how elections work. Not only do the majority of voters have to not want to vote for the President, they have to WANT to vote for the alternative.

 

[ProfJohn]

In 2004, President Bush was wildly unpopular.

ummm actually on election day Bush had around 50% approval.

http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm

 

[Rainsford]

I think he meant unemployment

Higher gas prices will result in less consumption of other gods and will result in higher unemployment. There is nothing Obama can do about it unless he can lower the price of gas.

Ending the White House anti-drilling stance and opening every inch of land possible might be his only hope. But that would require him to stab his party in the back.

I've seen very little evidence that the White House is particularly anti-drilling (Michele Bachman's quotes about new drilling permits are basically bullshit). But more importantly, I've never seen a good argument suggesting that the current rise in gas prices is due to a lack of domestic drilling.

After all, gas prices were much lower not that long ago. Have we been drilling a lot LESS since then or something? Or does it maybe have something to do with the commodities market and the massive unrest in the Middle East?

 

[Rainsford]

ummm actually on election day Bush had around 50% approval.

http://www.hist.umn.edu/~ruggles/Approval.htm

And the rest of the graph (ie, in most of 2004) shows him at sub 50%. So by your logic, he should have been gone, right?

 

[ProfJohn]

That's not really how elections work. Not only do the majority of voters have to not want to vote for the President, they have to WANT to vote for the alternative.

Wrong.

Elections with a sitting president come down to ONE thing. Does that president deserve a second term, period.

The chances that the Republicans are going to nominate someone so awful that people would rather have a bad president over the alternative is virtually nil.

You lefties are living in fantasy land dreaming of Palin or Huckabee or Bachman as the GOP nominee. The GOP has a great track record of picking winning candidates (McCain was actually ahead until the banking crisis) and any dreams of Palin or Huckabee are just that, dreams.

 

[brencat]

Higher gas prices will result in less consumption of other gods and will result in higher unemployment. There is nothing Obama can do about it unless he can lower the price of gas.

Cracking down hard on commodity index speculation is the only thing that will work. But that would require him stabbing his corporate donors from Goldman Sachs in the back.

Fixed

 

[Infohawk]

Elections with a sitting president come down to ONE thing. Does that president deserve a second term, period.

That's cute. "It's the economy stupid."

 

[Jhhnn]

Wrong.

Elections with a sitting president come down to ONE thing. Does that president deserve a second term, period.

The chances that the Republicans are going to nominate someone so awful that people would rather have a bad president over the alternative is virtually nil.

You lefties are living in fantasy land dreaming of Palin or Huckabee or Bachman as the GOP nominee. The GOP has a great track record of picking winning candidates (McCain was actually ahead until the banking crisis) and any dreams of Palin or Huckabee are just that, dreams.

Yeh- that's why the outgoing Prez & Vice Prez couldn't show their faces at the 2008 convention- McCain was such a sure winner that they didn't have to, right?

Ol' John had been promised the nomination for his gushing support in 2004, and was a known sacrifice when Dems took Congress in 2006. Not that anybody in the party told him so... He did light a fire under the slavering base with the Sarah!, however, one that they seem to be having some trouble getting under control...

 

[rudeguy]

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/usa/Unemployment-Falling-Broadly-Across-US-120218054.html

Im still waiting...

 

[shortylickens]

Also, I'm gonna be totally serious for a moment here, OK?
Bush was absolutely horrible in his first term, and he still got reelected. So just sit and think about that for a minute.

 

[Infohawk]

Im still waiting...

Do me a favor and hold your breath. I'm going to go with the analysts quoted in the article over whatever hair-splitting you have in mind.