Nvidia to blame for its 600 shortage?

[jzmagic]

http://semiaccurate.com/2012/05/01/why-cant-nvidia-supply-keplergk104gtx680/

Nvidia has been busily blaming TSMC for their many supposed failings on 28nm, but SemiAccurate has learned what is really going on. The short story is that the finger pointing around the Kepler launch problems should be at Nvidia, not TSMC.

You might recall that all TSMC 28nm customers are complaining about tight wafer starts, but other than one little ‘whoopsie’ that still hasn’t been adequately explained, all now seems well in Hsinchu. Customers, other than Nvidia, don’t seem to be complaining about yields, quite the contrary, most are quite direct in stating that they don’t have a problem with 28nm yields. Please be aware that yields are not directly related to wafer start availability. By their own admission, Nvidia is having yield problems, and big ones at that. Any wafer start shortages are problems on top of the horrendous yields.

Their flagship GK104/GTX680 GPU has been shipping for a month or so, and availability is still non-existent, completely sold out at any credible retailer. Moreover SemiAccurate sources say that the initial shipments of GTX680s did not hit 1000 worldwide, and to date, less than 10,000 have been shipped in total. Compare and contrast that to AMD’s Tahiti/HD7970/HD7950 chips which had an initial shipment of over 10,000 units, a second shipment before launch, and many more shipments to date. This is in spite of AMD producing a larger chip on a process in a much more immature state at time of shipment. The two smaller GPUs, Pitcairn and Cape Verde with different mask sets from Tahiti, have shipped proportionately greater volumes on top of that, AMD is unquestionably not having problems with yield.

Still, non-existent supply is a symptom, not an explanation, and Nvidia keeps insisting that the shortages are a perception problem, not a supply issue. This however is directly contradicted by both their statements and the leaks from green haired moles. The one key piece of the puzzle that SemiAccurate moles recently managed to confirm was that the problem is indeed Nvidia’s fault, it is a design problem.

This was confirmed when another source and said Nvidia is looking to redo their masks. He didn’t know where in the process things stood, but did say a base layer change is likely, basically the worst case scenario. If Nvidia has to redo this, it is a two quarter process before yields improve, so Q3 best case for yield improvements if they started things this year. SemiAccurate does not currently know where in the decision making process things currently stand though, and Nvidia may just tough it out until the GK114 update makes it a moot point.

As things stand, several questions remain open. When was the defect found? How bad are yields? Does it affect the other 28nm die, the GK106/GK107? Can Nvidia supply OEMs the mobile GPUs they promised? Can they make any Kepler part profitably at this point? One thing you can say for sure is that the problems Nvidia is having on 28nm are self-inflicted, TSMC is absolutely 100% blame free in this instance.

This user comment in the bottom of the page sums it up for cliff notes

There are two issues that are linked to lesser availability of 28nm products in the market.
a) Supply of 28nm Wafers- Capacity
b) Yield of a particular product at 28nm

Yes. TSMC has problems supplying enough capacity to all requestors. Qualcomm has confirmed it in its Q1 conference call, NVIDIA has done that too. So till TSMC ramps up capacity, by retooling more of its fabs, purchasing/processing wafers, there will be a glut in the number of 28nm products in the market for all its clients.

But NVIDIA from what Charlie is saying is having yield issues in addition to the capacity constraints. Qualcomm and AMD meanwhile do not seem to have that. So tomorrow if TSMC solves capacity issues, NVIDIA will still have yield issues manufacturing Kepler chips. All along NV has been hiding behind TSMC capacity problem to explain its Kepler woes while in reality it is a two-fer.

 

[Jaydip]

Good ole Charlie!()

 

[DeeJayeS]

I blame AMD for taking all of NVs wafers. I also blame AMD for global warming, the recession, and the cancellation of Chloe and Lamar's reality show on E!.

 

[Grooveriding]

Not surprising if true. nvidia had difficulty on 40nm at its inception as well. 680 so far has been a soft launch, considering the still poor state of availability 6 weeks after launch.

 

[Zebo]

I think it's possible but really it's probably TMSC. Afterall it's a bit hard to find AMD stuff too. 7850s and 7950s go oos regularly at newegg and the high end ones like from MSI /Sapphire/XFX sell out immediately. And the GTX 680 has way more demand than those parts.

 

[Don Karnage]

I still remember countless inventory of the 79xx's on launch on newegg. Why can't Nvidia do the same?

 

[Grooveriding]

I think it's possible but really it's probably TMSC. Afterall it's a bit hard to find AMD stuff too. 7850s and 7950s go oos regularly at newegg and the high end ones like from MSI /Sapphire/XFX sell out immediately. And the GTX 680 has way more demand than those parts.

Not true. Per the numbers $300+ discreet cards account for 3% of the GPU market. Now you are talking about a $500 card. There are lots more 7850s being sold than 680s. 7950 who knows, I would buy a 7870 and overclock it over the 7950 myself, otherwise I would just get a 7970.

 

[Stuka87]

I have no clue if what Charlie says is true or not. However, this could make some sense.

There is obviously not enough 680's in the chain. While AMD has no problem keeping its cards in chain, and its not that AMD cards are not selling. The 7850/7870 has been a huge hit and it selling quite well. And yes they can go out of stock for a day or so, but not constantly out of stock.

The 680 has been out for over a month, so the "MUST HAVE IT NOW!" people have typically already purchased it by this point. It should be down to the normal people that are simply upgrading. But they can't, because not a single retailer has them in stock for more than a few minutes a week. And those that do get them in, have them listed at $600.

 

[Zebo]

I have no clue if what Charlie says is true or not. However, this could make some sense.

There is obviously not enough 680's in the chain. While AMD has no problem keeping its cards in chain, and its not that AMD cards are not selling. The 7850/7870 has been a huge hit and it selling quite well. And yes they can go out of stock for a day or so, but not constantly out of stock.

The 680 has been out for over a month, so the "MUST HAVE IT NOW!" people have typically already purchased it by this point. It should be down to the normal people that are simply upgrading. But they can't, because not a single retailer has them in stock for more than a few minutes a week. And those that do get them in, have them listed at $600.

Try and find me a double D 975Mhz 7950. Or a Power Edition 7850. Or a Twin Frozr 7850. I could go on but plenty you can't get. You see one and it's gone same minute.

 

[Zebo]

Not true. Per the numbers $300+ discreet cards account for 3% of the GPU market. Now you are talking about a $500 card. There are lots more 7850s being sold than 680s. 7950 who knows, I would buy a 7870 and overclock it over the 7950 myself, otherwise I would just get a 7970.

Whatever, 7870 is most overpriced card out there. For $20 more you can buy a card faster stock AND with a lot more headroom since it starts at a measly 800Mhz.

For $100 less you can get a card that will OC past 7870 and hang with it both OCed.

 

[Don Karnage]

Whatever, 7870 is most overpriced card out there. For $20 more you can buy a card faster stock AND with a lot more headroom since it starts at a measly 800Mhz.

Agreed. The 7850 should be 199.99 and the 7870 299.99.

 

[notty22]

In the comments of the gtx 690 review Ryan Smith addressed the stock issue.

Hi Chad;

While I'm afraid we're not at liberty to discuss how many 680 and 690 cards NVIDIA has shipped, we do have our ears to the ground and as a result we have a decent idea as to how many have shipped. Suffice it to say, NVIDIA is shipping a fair number of cards; this is not a paper launch otherwise we would be calling NVIDIA out on it. NVIDIA absolutely needs to improve the stock situation, but at this point this is something that's out of their hands until either demand dies down or TSMC production picks up.

-Thanks
Ryan Smith

What would people have, Nvidia design a bigger die that couldn't clock as high and drew more power, but it could be made more easily, supposedly?

 

[Zebo]

In the comments of the gtx 690 review Ryan Smith addressed the stock issue.


What would people have, Nvidia design a bigger die that couldn't clock as high and drew more power, but it could be made more easily, supposedly?

Well there you go. Charlie batting his .333 as usual.

 

[aaksheytalwar]

Not true. Per the numbers $300+ discreet cards account for 3% of the GPU market. Now you are talking about a $500 card. There are lots more 7850s being sold than 680s. 7950 who knows, I would buy a 7870 and overclock it over the 7950 myself, otherwise I would just get a 7970.

This

 

[railven]

Not that it matters, but I'm in the process of building an IVB system for my best friend. When I told him the lower tier GTX 6 series were delayed until Q3 he pretty much slapped me as if it were my fault. haha.

So far the build is on hold until numbers come out for the GTX 670, but depending on price ($350 hard max) I think he'll be going for his first time with an AMD (HD 7850 - I hear them Powercolor models are the cat's meow ).

I hope for AMD sake's they fix their driver mishaps or this kid is going to kill me haha.

 

[aaksheytalwar]

If 7850 is 199 then 7870 should be 249 however that pricing makes no sense. You basically want 580 level pricing for $200 in that case. Those are dream prices,

Then amd could have done 7950 for $350 and 7970 for $425, but then 680 had to be $450 too, only if it was all so nice

 

[aaksheytalwar]

Not that it matters, but I'm in the process of building an IVB system for my best friend. When I told him the lower tier GTX 6 series were delayed until Q3 he pretty much slapped me as if it were my fault. haha.

So far the build is on hold until numbers come out for the GTX 670, but depending on price ($350 hard max) I think he'll be going for his first time with an AMD (HD 7850 - I hear them Powercolor models are the cat's meow ).

I hope for AMD sake's they fix their driver mishaps or this kid is going to kill me haha.

670 is $400+. You might be lucky to get 7950 for $370-380+ else get 7850 for $250+ and oc it

 

[railven]

I might just talk him into buying my GTX 460 SC. Outside of using it for PhysX on my main rig and a back up for any down time - I have no use for it. It should be a huge upgrade to his 7300 D:

 

[BD231]

I might just talk him into buying my GTX 460 SC. Outside of using it for PhysX on my main rig and a back up for any down time - I have no use for it. It should be a huge upgrade to his 7300 D:

Not a bad card at the right price, give him a deal and tell him to wait until the price inflation of the new process comes down.

 

[Nintendesert]

Not true. Per the numbers $300+ discreet cards account for 3% of the GPU market. Now you are talking about a $500 card. There are lots more 7850s being sold than 680s. 7950 who knows, I would buy a 7870 and overclock it over the 7950 myself, otherwise I would just get a 7970.

Not this. :thumbsdown:



We know the 7850 is a way better way to go.

 

[Raghu]

http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/mobile..._for_Inability_to_Make_Enough_28nm_Chips.html

 

[Zebo]

If 7850 is 199 then 7870 should be 249 however that pricing makes no sense. You basically want 580 level pricing for $200 in that case. Those are dream prices,

Then amd could have done 7950 for $350 and 7970 for $425, but then 680 had to be $450 too, only if it was all so nice

You think ANYONE is recommending or buying 580s these days? Just because 580 is way overpriced doesnt mean 7870 has to be. Now that it is no one recommends it either thus price is not 'dream pricing' but what we are willing to pay.

When that card came out I remember everyone here saying they'd bought it $299 so that's about right.

You have to remember people have to have a reason to upgrade too. So if you owned like a mid range card from last couple years $359 is so far out of your price range when you're used to paying $250 or so for another mid range card like 7870.

 

[Olikan]

well, nvidia having lower yields for gk 104 than tahiti, is kinda natural...even with smaller die size, tahiti have more months in production...
gk104 will have better yields than tahiti, but not in the very fist month

but, nvidia not able sell 10k keplers world wide, is very, VERY hard to belive

 

[SlowSpyder]

In the comments of the gtx 690 review Ryan Smith addressed the stock issue.


What would people have, Nvidia design a bigger die that couldn't clock as high and drew more power, but it could be made more easily, supposedly?

Sounds good, but, what is a "a fair number" of cards? Charlie is of by 2x what is actually shipping? 5x the true number? 10x the real number? More?

 

[3DVagabond]

I think it's possible but really it's probably TMSC. Afterall it's a bit hard to find AMD stuff too. 7850s and 7950s go oos regularly at newegg and the high end ones like from MSI /Sapphire/XFX sell out immediately. And the GTX 680 has way more demand than those parts.

I think you might be mistaken. While the 680 is a very desirable product, the likelihood it's in greater demand than the 7850 is slim to none. We're talking the best midrange card on the market right now. While some models of 7800/7900 go OoS, I've yet to go to Newegg and find any of them all sold out.

You need to understand how purchasing goes. Newegg isn't going to replace every model of anything as soon as it sells out. The economics aren't that simple. They look at overall stock levels as well as sales. Also future trends.

They might, for example, say, "Man, those Asus 7850 DCII's sold like crazy. Let's get some more." Then the purchasing agent says, "We aren't placing any Asus orders until 1st of next month. They sat there for weeks and then we had those reviews where they O/C'd to 7950+ performance and they all sold out in a day. I'll be sure to get more next time." Meanwhile, you and I see OoS for the next 2 wks. and think there's a supply shortage.