NVIDIA promises to ship Kepler this year

[SirPauly]

As far as I know AMD still holds the majority share of mobile GPUs. That quote referred to units shipped for the period and was put out of context to twist it to look like overall holdings.

The only one twisting is you. Investors and companies use Mercury Research and ignore extremism.

 

[notty22]

Nvidia is shipping more discrete gpu's than AMD. Shipping numbers from Mercury and JPR do not reflect the 8800's or what is in current computers. ITS GPU"S SHIPPED PER QUARTER.
http://www.itp.net/585176-small-growth-in-graphics-card-market-in-q1

In terms of units shipped, nVidia was the market leader in Q1, with 59.12% market share. nVidia unit shipments decreased by 2% from Q4, and its market share decline by 2.71%, but the company continued to lead, boosted by double attach (customers buying additional cards to upgrade PCs that already have a GPU), and GPU-compute/CUDA sales.

See more in this thread where this was discussed.
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=31974410&postcount=34

Q1 2010 = NV desktop discrete = 64.8%
Q2 2010 = NV desktop discrete = 55.2%
Q3 2010 = NV destkop discrete = 58.8%
Q1 2011 (May 2011 data) = NV desktop discrete = 59.4%

But if you look closely at Q1 2010 to Q2 2010, AMD has only increased its desktop GPU shipments from 6.85 million to 6.9 million units. The entire desktop GPU market has collapsed from 19.61 million to 15.5 million units. I can't easily explain what caused the collapse of the desktop GPU market from Q1 2010 to Q2 2010 and why NV's market share fell so much in that Quarter without doing additional research. But you can see that despite AMD launching Cypress in Q3 2009, NV still has a 59% market share in the discrete GPU space and has been gaining since Q2 2010.

Sure they launched late out of the gate, but since they had competitive products, it didn't really hurt the company that much on the desktop GPU space. AMD has been dominating the mobile GPU space though. Even if Fermi launched at the same time as Cypress, I doubt it'd be able to upset AMD's dominance in the mobile segment anyway since Fermi offerings aren't that great in that segment to begin with.



Of course the strong market share has everything to do with Fermi. That's the main product driving their entire range from Q2 2010 to Q1 2011 today - 59% market share in the discrete desktop GPU segment.



You think in the last 10-15 years NV and AMD have launched each new generation 1 month apart? We have witnessed 'spread-out' launches for a decade. It's not unusual for the 2 firms to launch products 1-6 months apart from each other and it isn't the end of the world for either when this happens. How much market share does the $350-500 discrete GPU market command in total?

You think 5 million people who buy desktop GPUs are sitting there and waiting to drop this kind of money on HD7000 series when BF3 launches? AMD would need to launch 10+ graphics cards from $50-500 all at once in September-October timeframe to even make a dent in the marketplace. We don't have any information even on what HD7000 series are going to be launching in the fall (are they going to postpone mid-range or low end to late Q4 2011/Q1 2012? We don't have any info. Even if AMD launches every product line by Q4 2011, this gives NV plenty of time to launch Kepler series in Q1 2012 and still be competitive. As you have seen in recent history, modern GPUs now have a lifecycle of about 15-18 months. Therefore, even if you launch 3 months later, you still have at least 15 months of sales on that architecture.

 

[SirPauly]

Discrete does encompass two aspects: Desktop and Mobile discrete. So, when one offers over-all, translates into both desktop and mobile combined.

 

[AtenRa]

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...els-aggressive-sandy-bridge-push/?mod=BOLBlog

Do we have the latest results for Discrete GPUs (Both Desktop and Mobile) for Q2 2011??

Edit: NV never lost the Desktop Discrete even when they didnt have a DX-11 card in the market.

 

[Vesku]

My guess is it will be a halo launch in the Dec timeframe with EVGA being given the lion's share of a small batch of early cards. Didn't they do that at least once before with a high-end launch? Mass retail volumes won't be seen until early 2012.

 

[SirPauly]

Do we have the latest results for Discrete GPUs (Both Desktop and Mobile) for Q2 2011??

Edit: NV never lost the Desktop Discrete even when they didnt have a DX-11 card in the market.

I read that AMD gained a bit on desktop discrete but lost a lot with mobile discrete and the over-all discrete lead is at 54.6 percent for nVidia. I don't know what the break down is for desktop discrete yet but nVidia had a real large lead here and probably a modest loss to AMD.


Here is another article with some break downs:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-shares-rise-on-market-share-gains-2011-08-01


Some points are claimed that AMD did not ever have discrete leadership -- I thought this was common knowledge as it was big news on the AMD front:

AMD Overtakes Nvidia as Top Discrete Graphics Vendor

AMD, which offers graphics cards under the ATI brand, held a 51.1 percent market share of all discrete graphics cards shipped during the second quarter, compared to Nvidia's 48.8 percent market share

http://www.pcworld.com/article/202199/amd_overtakes_nvidia_as_top_discrete_graphics_vendor.html

nVidia didn't lose desktop discrete but they did lose over-all discrete leadership.


And if one desires to see breakdowns for a year quarter to quarter - -some are here:

http://hothardware.com/News/Nvidia-Responds-to-JPR-Market-Figures/

If someone points out that the technology landscape has changed in a year -- think it is a fair point and can get backed by tangible data instead of extremism.

 

[SirPauly]

Another article about nVidia offering they will ship Kepler before years end -- from Anandtech:

Kepler GPUs Shipping This Year? NVIDIA Says Yes

At their GTC Workshop Japan event, NVIDIA's Senior VP of Research Chris Malachowsky let developers know that the company is expecting that Kepler "should start shipping by the end of the year."

http://www.anandtech.com/show/4572/kepler-gpus-shipping-this-year-nvidia-says-yes


This was the event which the news leaked:

http://blogs.nvidia.com/2011/07/gpu-technology-conference-1000-strong-in-tokyo/

 

[SirPauly]

So? He was talking about the one in October which got moved back and he seemingly didn't know about it.

It still is important to know because at the Japan GTC this was offered:

At their GTC Workshop Japan event, NVIDIA's Senior VP of Research Chris Malachowsky let developers know that the company is expecting that Kepler "should start shipping by the end of the year."

There is also going to be a GTC in Beijing, China soon.

 

[AnandThenMan]

should start shipping

Doesn't inspire confidence. Reminds me of when Fermi was ramping hard.

 

[SirPauly]

Imho,

Or any product that was delayed or executed perfectly. Companies are usually forward looking in their statements and use wording like, we should, we plan, we believe, we expect. Time will tell all.

 

[ZimZum]

Bitcoins sales are not enough to do this.
Mabe just a temporary shortage?

Dont be so sure. Bitcoin increased the going price of used 58xx cards to nearly what they were selling for new over a year ago.

 

[BFG10K]

nVidia denies plans to release it in 2011: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/graphi...nies_Plans_to_Release_Kepler_GPU_in_2011.html

"Although we will have early silicon this year, Kepler-based products are actually scheduled to go into production in 2012. We wanted to clarify this so people wouldn’t expect product to be available this year," said Ken Brown, a spokesman for Nvidia, in an email statement.

 

[Firestorm007]

What are you reffering to by "the best video cards on the market"?

That's real easy: 1) AMD currently has the best price vs. performance in the present market. 2) They also have the fastest video card in the world "The 6990" regardless of what anyone else tells you.

 

[happy medium]

nVidia denies plans to release it in 2011: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/graphi...nies_Plans_to_Release_Kepler_GPU_in_2011.html

Hmm. I just read this. I guess they all got screwed from TSMC.

"The new chip is projected to be made using 28nm process technology. Many believe that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, which makes chips for Nvidia, AMD and many others, will not be able to supply enough 28nm products this calendar year."

 

[happy medium]

That's real easy: 1) AMD currently has the best price vs. performance in the present market. 2) They also have the fastest video card in the world "The 6990" regardless of what anyone else tells you.

They "had" the fastest card in the world but you cant buy one now.
If you look at it that way, the gtx590 is the fastest current video card avalable.

The best price performance belongs to the gtx570 in the high end and the gtx460 in the mid end.

 

[Grooveriding]

Some points are claimed that AMD did not ever have discrete leadership -- I thought this was common knowledge as it was big news on the AMD front:

AMD Overtakes Nvidia as Top Discrete Graphics Vendor



http://www.pcworld.com/article/202199/amd_overtakes_nvidia_as_top_discrete_graphics_vendor.html

nVidia didn't lose desktop discrete but they did lose over-all discrete leadership.

AMD, which offers graphics cards under the ATI brand, held a 51.1 percent market share of all discrete graphics cards shipped during the second quarter, compared to Nvidia's 48.8 percent market share

Take note of what is bolded from your quotes. All this does is affirm how AMD had the majority of the DX11 installed base which they continue to hold. This has nothing to do with overall installed based, which nvidia holds.

Try to understand the difference. Or do you think these reports are running surveys of everyone who owns a discreet video card ?

This has nothing to do with this thread, and your rant and hammering home the fact against my comments was a waste of time. Clearly you didn't even understand my comments.

 

[Grooveriding]

nVidia denies plans to release it in 2011: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/graphi...nies_Plans_to_Release_Kepler_GPU_in_2011.html

So even more information pointing to AMD again having the advantage with 28nm as they did with 40nm. Per this link NV will not release until 2012.

"Although we will have early silicon this year, Kepler-based products are actually scheduled to go into production in 2012. We wanted to clarify this so people wouldn’t expect product to be available this year," said Ken Brown, a spokesman for Nvidia, in an email statement.

But looks like AMD has got an ace up their sleeve. As well as confirming 28nm this year, they are pulling from TSMC and Global Foundries. So whatever issues nv will/may run into at TSMC, AMD may avoid them by having both TSMC and GloFo for production.

28nm Radeon Chips This Year, AMD Says Yes

During its Q2 2011 earnings conference, AMD’s interim-CEO Thomas Seifert revealed that AMD already has working samples of GPUs using a 28nm fabrication process. AMD claims it is on track to introduce a revamped lineup of GPUs codenamed “Southen Islands” using the new process later this year. AMD expects to lead the graphic processor industry’s transition to the 28nm process.

AMD has tapped both Globalfoundries and TSMC to manufacture the new GPUs on their 28nm process. But since both the processes are vastly different, AMD would need independent GPU designs for each foundry. In spite of the risks, the cost savings from moving to the 28nm process should be significant, assuming good yields. Considering AMD’s GPU business lost $7 million this quarter, this is definitely good news.

Guess I will be having AMD cards back in my rig before the year's end

 

[notty22]

That's real easy: 1) AMD currently has the best price vs. performance in the present market. 2) They also have the fastest video card in the world "The 6990" regardless of what anyone else tells you.

By anyone, I guess you mean yourself ? The gtx 590 competes for the fastest title, and by my observation from reading various forums, there are more gtx 590's being used in the community than 6990's. Neither have shown up on Steam's monthly survey. They are proving to be low production, hard to get halo cards. Why ?
Newegg is not even showing out of stock hd 6990's. Production might be stopped on them ? Its my conjecture that AMD is gambling on the FABS to deliver on 28nm. It will give them the advantage, especially for the Holiday season, where initial public reception is HUGE.
If AMD gets them to the stores, the momentum will definitely swing back to them.

 

[Dark Shroud]

By anyone, I guess you mean yourself ? The gtx 590 competes for the fastest title, and by my observation from reading various forums, there are more gtx 590's being used in the community than 6990's. Neither have shown up on Steam's monthly survey. They are proving to be low production, hard to get halo cards. Why ?
Newegg is not even showing out of stock hd 6990's. Production might be stopped on them ? Its my conjecture that AMD is gambling on the FABS to deliver on 28nm. It will give them the advantage, especially for the Holiday season, where initial public reception is HUGE.
If AMD gets them to the stores, the momentum will definitely swing back to them.

They're not showing up in Steam because they're being snatched up for Bitcoin mining. AMD can't get HD 6990s out fast enough, they're all being bought up. You'll see pictures of the different cases just full of these cards.

 

[happy medium]

AMD can't get HD 6990s out fast enough

To be honest, I dont think they are making them anymore....I havent seen one for sale in a while.

Some places are saying expected delivery in 1 to 2 months?

 

[RussianSensation]

I'm interested to check out a fanless 6770. Maybe that could replace my fanless 7300gt as my backup/emergency card

Asus has a nice passive 6770 coming out.

 

[SirPauly]

Take note of what is bolded from your quotes. All this does is affirm how AMD had the majority of the DX11 installed base which they continue to hold. This has nothing to do with overall installed based, which nvidia holds.

Try to understand the difference. Or do you think these reports are running surveys of everyone who owns a discreet video card ?

This has nothing to do with this thread, and your rant and hammering home the fact against my comments was a waste of time. Clearly you didn't even understand my comments.

Do you have any concept of what Market share is? Talk about twisting.

 

[SirPauly]

nVidia denies plans to release it in 2011: http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/graphi...nies_Plans_to_Release_Kepler_GPU_in_2011.html

Thanks, there is more clarity here.

 

[Idontcare]

28nm Radeon Chips This Year, AMD Says Yes

During its Q2 2011 earnings conference, AMD’s interim-CEO Thomas Seifert revealed that AMD already has working samples of GPUs using a 28nm fabrication process. AMD claims it is on track to introduce a revamped lineup of GPUs codenamed “Southen Islands” using the new process later this year. AMD expects to lead the graphic processor industry’s transition to the 28nm process.

AMD has tapped both Globalfoundries and TSMC to manufacture the new GPUs on their 28nm process. But since both the processes are vastly different, AMD would need independent GPU designs for each foundry. In spite of the risks, the cost savings from moving to the 28nm process should be significant, assuming good yields. Considering AMD’s GPU business lost $7 million this quarter, this is definitely good news.

Guess I will be having AMD cards back in my rig before the year's end

How on earth did AMD find a way to lose $7m selling their in-high-demand video cards That's just bizarre.

 

[SirPauly]

So even more information pointing to AMD again having the advantage with 28nm as they did with 40nm. Per this link NV will not release until 2012.

But looks like AMD has got an ace up their sleeve. As well as confirming 28nm this year, they are pulling from TSMC and Global Foundries. So whatever issues nv will/may run into at TSMC, AMD may avoid them by having both TSMC and GloFo for production.

28nm Radeon Chips This Year, AMD Says Yes



Guess I will be having AMD cards back in my rig before the year's end

Quote from the article:

During its Q2 2011 earnings conference, AMD’s interim-CEO Thomas Seifert revealed that AMD already has working samples of GPUs using a 28nm fabrication process. AMD claims it is on track to introduce a revamped lineup of GPUs codenamed “Southen Islands” using the new process later this year. AMD expects to lead the graphic processor industry’s transition to the 28nm process.

What was exactly stated at the conference call for clarity:

We also passed several critical milestones in the second quarter as we prepare our next-generation 28-nanometer graphics family. We have working silicon in-house and remain on track to deliver the first members of what we expect will be another industry-leading GPU family to market later this year. We expect to be at the forefront of the GPU industry's transition to 28-nanometer.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/281...sses-q2-2011-results-earnings-call-transcript